Swing States Trends 10/25/24-10/31/24

[WillyBoyXXX]

Although not included in my crew of pollsters because they don’t post their results often enough, the Selzer Poll has posted its latest results in the Des Moines Register – and it has Harris winning Iowa by 3% !!!! Iowa?!!! By 3 percentage points?!!! Are you kidding me?!!!

I suppose if you think all polls are fake anyway it won’t bother you, but the Selzer Poll is regarded as the national polling standard for accuracy, and if Harris is ahead in Iowa (a Red state, and the Register a right-leaning newspaper), how far is she really behind in Ohio and the rest of the Midwest?

For now, I’m sticking to my nowcast of a Trump EC win, but the ‘herding’ tendency of many of my pollsters could flip the last page of the election script.

 

[Acebb]

This is actually a huge red flag for democrats, it means they know they’re in trouble.

This poll was being talked about by Democrats a day before it was released. The only purpose of it was to try and motivate an unmotivated base.

 

[brendanjack]

This is actually a huge red flag for democrats, it means they know they’re in trouble.

This poll was being talked about by Democrats a day before it was released. The only purpose of it was to try and motivate an unmotivated base.

I do agree with you here . Just wait for the Sunday morning smear scare campaign. At the end of the day you know what you’re getting with Trump. Kamala has failed every time without a prompter that is not good

 

[Acebb]

Yes. Several final polls will hit today and they will all pretend Harris is ahead in every swing state.

You can smell the desperation.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Yes. Several final polls will hit today and they will all pretend Harris is ahead in every swing state.

You can smell the desperation.

Wrong. The polls that dropped today, as scheduled, showed no significant variation from earlier results from the same pollsters. Only a slight overall shift in Harris’s direction except in PA which showed no change. And the only desperation I’m seeing is reflected by what’s posted by the resident MAGA crowd here. Monday’s poll drops should be telling if Nate Silver’s “herding” theory has merit.

 

[GasMan]

Wrong. The polls that dropped today, as scheduled, showed no significant variation from earlier results from the same pollsters. Only a slight overall shift in Harris’s direction except in PA which showed no change. And the only desperation I’m seeing is reflected by what’s posted by the resident MAGA crowd here. Monday’s poll drops should be telling if Nate Silver’s “herding” theory has merit.

Nah - the new sign ups and low propensity voters that Trump has garnered is outpacing Kameltoe 8 to 1,

These people are not included in these polls.

This is true in NV, GA, PA and NC. Massive advantages from Repubs for new voter registrations.

 

[Acebb]

And the only desperation I’m seeing is reflected by what’s posted by the resident MAGA crowd here

There isn't a state where Harris is over performing Biden in early voting percentages. Not 1.

Pretty sure you have it exactly backwards.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Yes. Several final polls will hit today and they will all pretend Harris is ahead in every swing state.

You can smell the desperation.

More evidence polls are FAKE, PHONY and FALSE.

Or, as Nate Silver put it, "herding... Finger on the scale CHEATING!"

Anyone here ever been called by a pollster? Yeah, didn't think so..

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Nah - the new sign ups and low propensity voters that Trump has garnered is outpacing Kameltoe 8 to 1,

These people are not included in these polls.

This is true in NV, GA, PA and NC. Massive advantages from Repubs for new voter registrations.

In fact, nearly the only pollster who would miss “new sign ups” would be the right-leaning dinosaur Gallop poll, which pisses on “likely voters” in favor of their old reliable “registered voter” (who haven’t wavered from Goldwater in ’64). And “desperation” expressed by the MAGA faithful here can be measured by counting the number of downright zany threads posted here….Now it’s time for FOOTBALL!!!!

 

[GasMan]

The rest are just estimates based on historical data - mone of them factor in an 800% advantage - not.to mention, they are counting on these sites canubalizing GOP election day turn out.

Oh, and let's not forget

Cocaine was found at the White House.
A dead body was found at Obama's house.
A male prostitute was found at Pelosi's house.
An illegal server was found at Clinton's house.

Pedophilia material was found on Hunter Bidens laptop.

But Trump is a low life rapist - you libs are insane.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Less than 200 people showed up for the retarded whore...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1852726628759089299

"Polls say it's a close race"

 

[MAGAking1]

Although not included in my crew of pollsters because they don’t post their results often enough, the Selzer Poll has posted its latest results in the Des Moines Register – and it has Harris winning Iowa by 3% !!!! Iowa?!!! By 3 percentage points?!!! Are you kidding me?!!!

This the only SELTZER gonna matter to you ding dong libs come Wed morning

I would gladly bet an honest person that Trump wins Iowa even though this "poll" shows LOL Harris winning.

Trump disputes Iowa poll showing Harris ahead in red state: ‘It’s not even close!’

Selzer poll, widely respected organization with good record in Iowa, shows vice-president leading Trump 47% to 44%

www.theguardian.com

 

[MAGAking1]

Yeah real legit poll...lol

WOW! Political Pollster Ann Selzer Who Released Junk Iowa Poll Showing Kamala with Big Lead is Confused Over What the "R" and "D" Refer to in Polling Cross Tabs (VIDEO) | The Gateway Pundit | by Cristina Laila

Political pollster Ann Selzer appeared confused over what the “R” and “D” letter referred to in polling cross tabs during an interview with Mark Halperin.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

 

[MAGAking1]

Ding Dongs like SillyWilly STILL think polls are legit rather than pure propaganda.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1861775718473998678

 

[MAGAking1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1868711254904422870