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Sunday's Best Super Bowl Bets
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 44.5)
We know that the Packers are going to be ready to go in this one, as they have really withstood every single test that has come their way this year, and they have won every single game in which they have really needed. They’ve put aside the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears, all of which have come on the road, and they are now the only No. 6 seed in the Super Bowl era to make it to the biggest game of the year from the NFC. Green Bay is led by a stifling defense that has forced six picks and has 10 sacks in the playoffs. We know that Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers is well on his way to getting a head coaching gig if he can keep this type of play up. There have been a number of different men that have really come to the table this year to help this team out, namely DB Tramon Williams (3 INTs, 1 TD), DB Sam Shields (2 INTs, 1 sack), LB Clay Matthews (3.5 sacks), and DT BJ Raji (1 INT, 1 TD) in the second season. However, we all know for the Packers to win this game that QB Aaron Rodgers needs to be at his best. Green Bay isn’t going to get lucky and have the Steelers playing with their third string quarterback in the second half of the Super Bowl in all likelihood, so Rodgers isn’t going to be able to get away with throwing two picks without a TD pass to win this game. RB James Starks has come out of nowhere as well to put together 263 yards on 70 carries in his rookie campaign in the playoffs.
The Steelers tried their best to let the AFC Championship Game get away from them, but in the end, it was their defense that really held firm and fended off the pesky New York Jets. Just like Rodgers struggled, it was a bad game for QB Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC title game, as he was picked off twice and also did not throw a score. Still, Big Ben knows what it is like to win the biggest game of the year, as he has a pair of victories in the Super Bowl already in his career. RB Rashard Mendenhall was relatively quiet against the Baltimore Ravens in the first round of the playoffs, but he came up with a game in which he was already in triple digits on the ground in the third quarter against the Jets, something that he did twice on the year. New York hadn’t allowed a 100+ yard rusher in 19 straight games before running into Mendenhall in the regular season. As always though, we have to talk about this fantastic defense. The Steelers have accounted for seven sacks in just two games in the playoffs, and they have forced four turnovers. We all know just how good this rushing game is defensively, as Pittsburgh allowed less than 65 yards per game in the regular season this year to opponents on the ground.
We know that the Packers have really been the trendy picks to get to the Super Bowl this year, but we’re not so sure that it’s going to continue for another title. The Steelers have all sorts of Super Bowl experience on this roster, and they just have a great method for winning the biggest games on the biggest stages. The only two men with Super Bowl experience on this entire Green Bay roster are DB Charles Woodson and DT Ryan Pickett, both of which were on the losing ends of their Super Bowls several years ago. Rodgers and company still have a lot of growing to do, and though they had a great game this year, they’ll come up short.
SUPER BOWL PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 44.5)
Everyone has already developed their opinion as to whether it will be the Green Bay Packers or the Pittsburgh Steelers that win the Super Bowl, but here at Bang the Book, we’re already making our Super Bowl picks on the ‘total’ as well. Check out our analysis of the 2011 Super Bowl odds in relation to the ‘total’.
In a year in which there were a ton of ‘over’ games, the Packers were one of the few teams that had a winning record for ‘under’ bettors. They went 10-6 in the regular season towards the ‘under’, and they have followed that up with two ‘unders’ and an ‘over’ in the second season. Immediately, we’re going to look and see QB Aaron Rodgers’ great numbers this year and think that this should be a shootout. Sure, he has thrown for 790 yards and accounted for eight TDs between his arm and his legs, but he also put up a complete dud against the Chicago Bears last week and proved that he is truly mortal, unlike what we were thinking in the divisional round of the postseason against the Atlanta Falcons. This is also where the big time commitment to the running game is going to have a huge factor. In spite of the fact that the Bears had the second best rush defense in the NFL this year and the best in the NFC, Green Bay still tried to run rookie RB James Starks into the ground, handing him the pigskin 22 times. If the Packers try this stunt against the Steelers, they’re going to be in sad shape, as there is no way that Pittsburgh is going to be allowing this type of production to a rookie that really has only accounted for his yards because of the quantity of his carries, not the quality of them. The Green Bay defense is forcing turnovers left and right and is completely harassing quarterbacks. This unit has already forced six turnovers, all of which have come via picks, and it has 10 sacks to boot.
Pittsburgh’s rush defense rarely allows even 100 yards on the ground in a game, and this is the unit that really is going to have to step up to the plate in order for the Steelers to win this one. We know that the black and gold have scored 55 points in their two postseason games this year, but we also know that this has really also been a product of the defense scoring and setting up points, something that we, as handicappers, cannot rely on regularly. QB Ben Roethlisberger knows that he has won some of the biggest games that the league has to offer, but he also has had some shaky moments, just as he had in the AFC Championship Game when he turned the ball over twice and was guilty of a safety in the fourth quarter. We know that RB Rashard Mendenhall is going to be run into the ground once again. He had 27 carries in the AFC Championship Game and will be asked to do similar here in the Super Bowl. Again, the defense is capable of some amazing things, and it has been that way for a number of years. If there is a unit that can pitch the first shutout in the history of the Super Bowl, this is it.
That being said, we are fairly sold that this is going to be a lower scoring game than the average Super Bowl. Asking these two offenses to combine for more than 45 points against these two defenses is going to be virtually impossible. We know that this has been the season of the high scoring games, but it will wrap up with a lower scoring slugfest.
SUPER BOWL PICK: Under 45
Sunday's Best Super Bowl Bets
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 44.5)
We know that the Packers are going to be ready to go in this one, as they have really withstood every single test that has come their way this year, and they have won every single game in which they have really needed. They’ve put aside the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears, all of which have come on the road, and they are now the only No. 6 seed in the Super Bowl era to make it to the biggest game of the year from the NFC. Green Bay is led by a stifling defense that has forced six picks and has 10 sacks in the playoffs. We know that Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers is well on his way to getting a head coaching gig if he can keep this type of play up. There have been a number of different men that have really come to the table this year to help this team out, namely DB Tramon Williams (3 INTs, 1 TD), DB Sam Shields (2 INTs, 1 sack), LB Clay Matthews (3.5 sacks), and DT BJ Raji (1 INT, 1 TD) in the second season. However, we all know for the Packers to win this game that QB Aaron Rodgers needs to be at his best. Green Bay isn’t going to get lucky and have the Steelers playing with their third string quarterback in the second half of the Super Bowl in all likelihood, so Rodgers isn’t going to be able to get away with throwing two picks without a TD pass to win this game. RB James Starks has come out of nowhere as well to put together 263 yards on 70 carries in his rookie campaign in the playoffs.
The Steelers tried their best to let the AFC Championship Game get away from them, but in the end, it was their defense that really held firm and fended off the pesky New York Jets. Just like Rodgers struggled, it was a bad game for QB Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC title game, as he was picked off twice and also did not throw a score. Still, Big Ben knows what it is like to win the biggest game of the year, as he has a pair of victories in the Super Bowl already in his career. RB Rashard Mendenhall was relatively quiet against the Baltimore Ravens in the first round of the playoffs, but he came up with a game in which he was already in triple digits on the ground in the third quarter against the Jets, something that he did twice on the year. New York hadn’t allowed a 100+ yard rusher in 19 straight games before running into Mendenhall in the regular season. As always though, we have to talk about this fantastic defense. The Steelers have accounted for seven sacks in just two games in the playoffs, and they have forced four turnovers. We all know just how good this rushing game is defensively, as Pittsburgh allowed less than 65 yards per game in the regular season this year to opponents on the ground.
We know that the Packers have really been the trendy picks to get to the Super Bowl this year, but we’re not so sure that it’s going to continue for another title. The Steelers have all sorts of Super Bowl experience on this roster, and they just have a great method for winning the biggest games on the biggest stages. The only two men with Super Bowl experience on this entire Green Bay roster are DB Charles Woodson and DT Ryan Pickett, both of which were on the losing ends of their Super Bowls several years ago. Rodgers and company still have a lot of growing to do, and though they had a great game this year, they’ll come up short.
SUPER BOWL PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 44.5)
Everyone has already developed their opinion as to whether it will be the Green Bay Packers or the Pittsburgh Steelers that win the Super Bowl, but here at Bang the Book, we’re already making our Super Bowl picks on the ‘total’ as well. Check out our analysis of the 2011 Super Bowl odds in relation to the ‘total’.
In a year in which there were a ton of ‘over’ games, the Packers were one of the few teams that had a winning record for ‘under’ bettors. They went 10-6 in the regular season towards the ‘under’, and they have followed that up with two ‘unders’ and an ‘over’ in the second season. Immediately, we’re going to look and see QB Aaron Rodgers’ great numbers this year and think that this should be a shootout. Sure, he has thrown for 790 yards and accounted for eight TDs between his arm and his legs, but he also put up a complete dud against the Chicago Bears last week and proved that he is truly mortal, unlike what we were thinking in the divisional round of the postseason against the Atlanta Falcons. This is also where the big time commitment to the running game is going to have a huge factor. In spite of the fact that the Bears had the second best rush defense in the NFL this year and the best in the NFC, Green Bay still tried to run rookie RB James Starks into the ground, handing him the pigskin 22 times. If the Packers try this stunt against the Steelers, they’re going to be in sad shape, as there is no way that Pittsburgh is going to be allowing this type of production to a rookie that really has only accounted for his yards because of the quantity of his carries, not the quality of them. The Green Bay defense is forcing turnovers left and right and is completely harassing quarterbacks. This unit has already forced six turnovers, all of which have come via picks, and it has 10 sacks to boot.
Pittsburgh’s rush defense rarely allows even 100 yards on the ground in a game, and this is the unit that really is going to have to step up to the plate in order for the Steelers to win this one. We know that the black and gold have scored 55 points in their two postseason games this year, but we also know that this has really also been a product of the defense scoring and setting up points, something that we, as handicappers, cannot rely on regularly. QB Ben Roethlisberger knows that he has won some of the biggest games that the league has to offer, but he also has had some shaky moments, just as he had in the AFC Championship Game when he turned the ball over twice and was guilty of a safety in the fourth quarter. We know that RB Rashard Mendenhall is going to be run into the ground once again. He had 27 carries in the AFC Championship Game and will be asked to do similar here in the Super Bowl. Again, the defense is capable of some amazing things, and it has been that way for a number of years. If there is a unit that can pitch the first shutout in the history of the Super Bowl, this is it.
That being said, we are fairly sold that this is going to be a lower scoring game than the average Super Bowl. Asking these two offenses to combine for more than 45 points against these two defenses is going to be virtually impossible. We know that this has been the season of the high scoring games, but it will wrap up with a lower scoring slugfest.
SUPER BOWL PICK: Under 45
