Wunderdog NCAA-B
Game: South Florida at Notre Dame (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on South Florida +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Syracuse at Cincinnati (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Iona at Marist (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Iona -14 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: South Florida at Notre Dame (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on South Florida +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Syracuse at Cincinnati (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Iona at Marist (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Iona -14 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
NELLY'S FOOTBALL PICKS
2/5/2010
5:30:00 PM UNDER 56.5,INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
-vs-New Orleans Saints Rating: 2 units
2* UNDER,
Opinion Indianapolis -5, PROP Selections (all rated equally, and should be considered less than a half or a 1* play at most): No 4th down conversions in the game (+165), Indianapolis to have the longest kickoff return in the game (+120), More points scored in the 2nd Half & OT -½ (+105), Pierre Thomas Over 60½ rushing yards (+115), Joseph Addai Over 3 receptions (+130). That concludes our football season, thank you and best of luck.
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Championship Spread Losers
PLAY AGAINST: Any Super Bowl team that won but failed to
cover in the conference championship game.
4-1-1, 80% since 1984
PLAY AGAINST: New Orleans Saints
(PLAY ON: Indianapolis)
TREND OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis has won 17 in a row S/U when favored by 4 or more
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
New Orleans is 5-9-1 L15 as dogs – New Orleans is 51-33-2 in non-home games since ‘00
Indianapolis is 11-4 L15 as favorites – Indianapolis is 10-3 L13 in non home games
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2010
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) New Orleans (56) 5:20 PM
The Jets used some trickery to take an early lead last week, up 17-6
late in the second quarter. Peyton Manning and the Colts rallied to
score just before the half and then took over in the second half for a
familiar outcome. Indianapolis has not been a great statistical defense
but they have been very effective in the playoffs and in big regular
season games. While New Orleans was thoroughly out-played against
Minnesota in many areas, one concern before the game was the
Minnesota pass rush, and New Orleans did protect Drew Brees well last
week. The Saints did not put up great yardage numbers but they were
dealt a short field in a few key drives in the second half. Minnesota
moved the ball with relative ease last week but as they have done all
year, the opportunistic Saints took advantage of Minnesota mistakes.
The Vikings posted 310 yards in the air last week against the Saints,
while the Colts put up 360 passing yards against the #1 defense in the
league, a bad sign for the Saints moving forward to this game. New
Orleans did a great job blitzing and getting pressure and hits on the
quarterback but ultimately there remain serious concerns for the Saints
going against the Indianapolis offense. The favorite has only covered
five times in the last 14 Super Bowls and the ‘under’ has hit in four of
last five games. The Colts won the Super Bowl the last time it was in
Miami, beating Chicago 29-17. Indianapolis covered in that game as a
seven-point favorite and like many times this season including last week
the Colts rallied from an early deficit to win. Jim Caldwell will be a rookie
head coach as he will look to join Don McCafferty who won Super Bowl
V for the Colts in his first season. George Seifert also won the Super
Bowl his first season coaching the 49ers and that transition could view
similarly to what has happened in Indianapolis. The Super Bowl has still
been AFC dominated in recent years, winning seven of the last nine
Super Bowls. This will be the first Super Bowl with two #1 seeds since
the Bills and Cowboys re-match in 1993. These teams last met to open
the 2007 season and the Colts won with ease 41-10. While it is tough to
consider going against Indianapolis in any situation there should be
some concerns with this team away form home as nearly all of the big
wins this season have come at home. The last Super Bowl run for the
Colts did come largely on the road however so there is a precedent for
success. The home field edge for the Saints was not the overwhelming
advantage that it was hyped to be but the Vikings did have critical
turnovers and penalties, mistakes the Colts are not known for making.
The Saints have faced a favorable schedule in the regular season and
in the playoffs, and more so than the Colts, New Orleans will be a team
happy to be in the Super Bowl for the first time. The Colts all season
long have been focused on winning the Super Bowl, even sacrificing an
immortal perfect season run to best set-up this moment. While the
Saints faced one of the league’s weakest regular season schedules, the
Colts certainly had the playoffs fall favorably, facing two wild cards
teams in brutally tough travel situations as Baltimore played in a fourth
straight road game and the Jets faced a third straight road game. Credit
is due to the Jets for making it as far as they did and delivering a valiant
effort but certainly New England or San Diego would have been a more
feared match-up. Totals are often inflated in the Super Bowl and this
game should kickoff with the highest total in Super Bowl history. It is
warranted as both teams feature pass heavy offenses and have some
vulnerability in the secondary. The Saints defense should step up and
make a few more stops this week but the Colts also deserve more credit
on defense than they are often afforded. There is no question that the
Saints caught some breaks last week to be in this situation and it could
be difficult for this team to bring the same focus that Indianapolis will
have. That said, we have seen in past Super Bowls where a heavily
favored team caves with the pressure and a loose underdog is capable
of surprising. The discipline and leadership on the Colts should prevent
any type of letdown however and as much credit as Manning deserves
there are a lot of other great play-makers on the team and the defense
should be able to have some of the success in limiting New Orleans
much like the Vikings showed last week. Don’t be surprised if the
energy of the Saints buys an early lead but the Colts are never
unraveled by deficits and have proven clutch in many late game
situations this season. COLTS BY 10
RATING 2: Indianapolis (-5) over New Orleans
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (56) New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
2/5/2010
5:30:00 PM UNDER 56.5,INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
-vs-New Orleans Saints Rating: 2 units
2* UNDER,
Opinion Indianapolis -5, PROP Selections (all rated equally, and should be considered less than a half or a 1* play at most): No 4th down conversions in the game (+165), Indianapolis to have the longest kickoff return in the game (+120), More points scored in the 2nd Half & OT -½ (+105), Pierre Thomas Over 60½ rushing yards (+115), Joseph Addai Over 3 receptions (+130). That concludes our football season, thank you and best of luck.
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Championship Spread Losers
PLAY AGAINST: Any Super Bowl team that won but failed to
cover in the conference championship game.
4-1-1, 80% since 1984
PLAY AGAINST: New Orleans Saints
(PLAY ON: Indianapolis)
TREND OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis has won 17 in a row S/U when favored by 4 or more
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
New Orleans is 5-9-1 L15 as dogs – New Orleans is 51-33-2 in non-home games since ‘00
Indianapolis is 11-4 L15 as favorites – Indianapolis is 10-3 L13 in non home games
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2010
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) New Orleans (56) 5:20 PM
The Jets used some trickery to take an early lead last week, up 17-6
late in the second quarter. Peyton Manning and the Colts rallied to
score just before the half and then took over in the second half for a
familiar outcome. Indianapolis has not been a great statistical defense
but they have been very effective in the playoffs and in big regular
season games. While New Orleans was thoroughly out-played against
Minnesota in many areas, one concern before the game was the
Minnesota pass rush, and New Orleans did protect Drew Brees well last
week. The Saints did not put up great yardage numbers but they were
dealt a short field in a few key drives in the second half. Minnesota
moved the ball with relative ease last week but as they have done all
year, the opportunistic Saints took advantage of Minnesota mistakes.
The Vikings posted 310 yards in the air last week against the Saints,
while the Colts put up 360 passing yards against the #1 defense in the
league, a bad sign for the Saints moving forward to this game. New
Orleans did a great job blitzing and getting pressure and hits on the
quarterback but ultimately there remain serious concerns for the Saints
going against the Indianapolis offense. The favorite has only covered
five times in the last 14 Super Bowls and the ‘under’ has hit in four of
last five games. The Colts won the Super Bowl the last time it was in
Miami, beating Chicago 29-17. Indianapolis covered in that game as a
seven-point favorite and like many times this season including last week
the Colts rallied from an early deficit to win. Jim Caldwell will be a rookie
head coach as he will look to join Don McCafferty who won Super Bowl
V for the Colts in his first season. George Seifert also won the Super
Bowl his first season coaching the 49ers and that transition could view
similarly to what has happened in Indianapolis. The Super Bowl has still
been AFC dominated in recent years, winning seven of the last nine
Super Bowls. This will be the first Super Bowl with two #1 seeds since
the Bills and Cowboys re-match in 1993. These teams last met to open
the 2007 season and the Colts won with ease 41-10. While it is tough to
consider going against Indianapolis in any situation there should be
some concerns with this team away form home as nearly all of the big
wins this season have come at home. The last Super Bowl run for the
Colts did come largely on the road however so there is a precedent for
success. The home field edge for the Saints was not the overwhelming
advantage that it was hyped to be but the Vikings did have critical
turnovers and penalties, mistakes the Colts are not known for making.
The Saints have faced a favorable schedule in the regular season and
in the playoffs, and more so than the Colts, New Orleans will be a team
happy to be in the Super Bowl for the first time. The Colts all season
long have been focused on winning the Super Bowl, even sacrificing an
immortal perfect season run to best set-up this moment. While the
Saints faced one of the league’s weakest regular season schedules, the
Colts certainly had the playoffs fall favorably, facing two wild cards
teams in brutally tough travel situations as Baltimore played in a fourth
straight road game and the Jets faced a third straight road game. Credit
is due to the Jets for making it as far as they did and delivering a valiant
effort but certainly New England or San Diego would have been a more
feared match-up. Totals are often inflated in the Super Bowl and this
game should kickoff with the highest total in Super Bowl history. It is
warranted as both teams feature pass heavy offenses and have some
vulnerability in the secondary. The Saints defense should step up and
make a few more stops this week but the Colts also deserve more credit
on defense than they are often afforded. There is no question that the
Saints caught some breaks last week to be in this situation and it could
be difficult for this team to bring the same focus that Indianapolis will
have. That said, we have seen in past Super Bowls where a heavily
favored team caves with the pressure and a loose underdog is capable
of surprising. The discipline and leadership on the Colts should prevent
any type of letdown however and as much credit as Manning deserves
there are a lot of other great play-makers on the team and the defense
should be able to have some of the success in limiting New Orleans
much like the Vikings showed last week. Don’t be surprised if the
energy of the Saints buys an early lead but the Colts are never
unraveled by deficits and have proven clutch in many late game
situations this season. COLTS BY 10
RATING 2: Indianapolis (-5) over New Orleans
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (56) New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
ChicagoSportsConnection.
ChicagoSportsConnection.
ncaab.......2:00 ET
4**** MARYLAND -6.5 vs N.C
Maryland has won 9 of their last 13 games by 9+ points.
The young Tar Heels having a very tough go of things right now.
**************************************************************
I have a strong opinion on The Super Bowl , but don't have an official pick.
Super Sunday is a holiday.
It's about soaking up the whole experience.
The pregame, the commercials and the celebration afterwards.
Especially if it's on Bourbon Street.
The last thing I want to do is ruin your holiday by losing money.
Everyone has to make their own decision about this game if they are going to bet on it.
It's a personal choice.
My choice ?
Well....I didn't ike they way Drew Brees played against Minnesota two weeks ago.
I say the QB edge goes to Peyton Manning big time.
He played at this very same venue on Super Sunday just 3 years ago.
Indy beat the Bears that day...and 25 current Colts have a ring to prove it.
This is the Saints first visit to The Show.
Big edge in experience to Indy.
But I'm not betting the game.
There are a million other games to bet on ....starting tomorrow.
I'll sit back and enjoy this one.
Good luck and I hope your team wins.
Star Ratings
1*.....1/4 unit
2*.....1/2 unit
3*.....3/4 unit
4*.......1 unit
5*...1&1/4 unit
6*...1&1/2 unit
7*...1&3/4 unit
8*.......2 units
ChicagoSportsConnection.
ncaab.......2:00 ET
4**** MARYLAND -6.5 vs N.C
Maryland has won 9 of their last 13 games by 9+ points.
The young Tar Heels having a very tough go of things right now.
**************************************************************
I have a strong opinion on The Super Bowl , but don't have an official pick.
Super Sunday is a holiday.
It's about soaking up the whole experience.
The pregame, the commercials and the celebration afterwards.
Especially if it's on Bourbon Street.
The last thing I want to do is ruin your holiday by losing money.
Everyone has to make their own decision about this game if they are going to bet on it.
It's a personal choice.
My choice ?
Well....I didn't ike they way Drew Brees played against Minnesota two weeks ago.
I say the QB edge goes to Peyton Manning big time.
He played at this very same venue on Super Sunday just 3 years ago.
Indy beat the Bears that day...and 25 current Colts have a ring to prove it.
This is the Saints first visit to The Show.
Big edge in experience to Indy.
But I'm not betting the game.
There are a million other games to bet on ....starting tomorrow.
I'll sit back and enjoy this one.
Good luck and I hope your team wins.
Star Ratings
1*.....1/4 unit
2*.....1/2 unit
3*.....3/4 unit
4*.......1 unit
5*...1&1/4 unit
6*...1&1/2 unit
7*...1&3/4 unit
8*.......2 units
VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
810 Cincinnati 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 809 Syracuse
Analysis:
** CBB 2* MORNING MOVES ** (BOOKIE BET)
This one comes from one of my Bookie Sources which I've used many times to help Confirm a Wager...And just like Bookie Bill, they've provided plenty of winning information...
My True Line also supports that we are getting plenty of Value with the Home Team by this Inflated Line...And with more than one Book claiming their Sharp Bettor/s came in on the Dog, which is the reason this line has gone down rather than up...I believe that respect is warrented...
Let's go ahead and see if we can cash another 2* Morning Move with CINCI as a nice home dog...VR
810 Cincinnati 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 809 Syracuse
Analysis:
** CBB 2* MORNING MOVES ** (BOOKIE BET)
This one comes from one of my Bookie Sources which I've used many times to help Confirm a Wager...And just like Bookie Bill, they've provided plenty of winning information...
My True Line also supports that we are getting plenty of Value with the Home Team by this Inflated Line...And with more than one Book claiming their Sharp Bettor/s came in on the Dog, which is the reason this line has gone down rather than up...I believe that respect is warrented...
Let's go ahead and see if we can cash another 2* Morning Move with CINCI as a nice home dog...VR
