Super Bowl Sunday Service Play Thread 02/12/2023

[BuzzKill]

Bob Balfe

Super Bowl LVII
6:30 PM EST
Rotation # 101

Chiefs +1.5 over Eagles
Chiefs/Eagles Over 50.5

I have been an Eagles fan since I was born, and they had a fantastic year, but sports gamblers don’t bet with their heart. Remember that Super Bowls are events, not games, and extremely difficult to handicap. Philly is better statistically this year but only has five players that played in a Super Bowl opposed to the Chiefs, who have 18 players that lost a Super Bowl to Tampa just two years ago. Kansas City didn’t have a fair chance in that game due to their offensive line missing three starters. Kansas City rebuilt their offensive line after that loss and is fully healthy. Andy Reid will be coaching his 4th Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes will be playing in his 3rd. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is 41 years old, coaching in his 1st Super Bowl. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts playing in his first Super Bowl. Experience matters in the week leading up to the big game. The Eagles will move the ball well on offense, as they have a great running game and great receivers. Kansas City will also have no issues throwing the ball, with Mahomes improvising and finding Travis Kelce when needed. The Super Bowl will be a high-scoring game as they game indoors, and weather will not be a factor. Look for the game to go back and forth, with both teams playing their hearts out. In the end, the Chiefs will cash the ticket as they are the more experienced team. Take the Chiefs and the Over.

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Kenneth Gainwell Over 20.5 yards total rushing -115
DeVonta Smith Over 61.5 yards receiving -115
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP +170
1st TD of the game, JuJu Smith-Schuster +1000
Longest TD Pass Over 40.5 yards -170
Total FG’s Made in game Under 3.5 -115
First sack of the game, George Karlaftis +190
1st Eagles TD Dallas Goedert +600

 

[BuzzKill]

Alex Smart Props

Touchdowns - Travis Kelce - over 0.5

Rushing yards - Jalen Hurts - Over 49.5

Touchdowns - Jalen Hurts - Over 0.5

Rushing yards - Miles Sanders - Under 61.5

Rushing yards - Jerick McKinnon - Under 22.5

Rushing yards - Kenneth Gainwell - Over 19.5

Passing tds - Patrick Mahomes - Over 2.5

Touchdowns - Patrick Mahomes - Over 0.5

 

[BuzzKill]

WUnderdog

SuperBowl Prop Bet
Longest made Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards.

 

[BuzzKill]

Brad Powers (all 1 Unit)

Kansas City TE Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 Receptions -160 (Draft Kings), Westgate has -170

Will KC or PHI Score First 5.5 Minutes of Game: NO -150 (Westgate)

Total Punts by Chiefs and Eagles: UNDER 7.5 -170 (Westgate)

 

[BuzzKill]

Jack Brayman

100 Dimes - Eagles

 

[BuzzKill]

Insider Money Moves

100 Dimes - Eagles

 

[BuzzKill]

RAS

Over 50.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Gianni the Greek

101) kc-phi : Under 7.5 (-160) total punts…(2%)
102) miles sanders (phi) : Over 26.5 (-125) rushing yrds (1st half)…(2%)

102) MILES SANDERS (PHI) : OVER 58.5 (-140) RUSHING YRDS…(2%)
101) PATRICK MAHOMES (KC) : OVER 288.5 (-125) PASSING YRDS…(2%) - SHOP'IT : 287.5 THRU 289.5 AVAILABLE / 2% = UP TO 290.5

1101) OVER 10.5 (-125) KANSAS CITY (1ST HALF) - TEAM TOTAL…(4%) / 4% = UP TO 11.5 (-110)
101) OVER 24 (-125) KC-PHILADELPHIA (1ST HALF)…(4%)
101) KC-PHI : OPENING KICK-OFF TO BE A TOUCHBACK = NO (+140)…(2%)

101) OVER 50.5 KC-PHILADELPHIA…(5%) - BIG MOVE / 5% = UP TO 51 (-110)

102) PHILADELPHIA (-140) : MOST TIME OF POSSESSION…(2%)
101) PATRICK MAHOMES (KC) : OVER 3.5 (-150) RUSHING ATTEMPTS…(2%)
101) KC-PHI : UNDER 3.5 (-160) FIELD-GOALS MADE…(2%)
101) KC-PHI : UNDER 2.5 (+150) FIELD-GOALS MADE…(1%)
102) JALEN HURTS (PHI) : UNDER 1.5 (-115) TOUCHDOWN PASSES…(2%)
101) KC-PHI : TOTAL PLAYERS TO HAVE A PASS ATTEMPT = UNDER 2.5 (-165)…(2%)
101) KC-PHI : TOTAL PLAYERS WITH RUSH ATTEMPT = OVER 8.5 (-220)…(2%)

 

[JayGrace]

Jeff Ma- 55-43-1-
Chiefs +1.5 and over 51.

Props
chiefs to have more sacks than eagles
yes for score in first 5.30 minutes +150
Kelce not to score a TD

 

[missy]

anyone has marc lawrence

 

[Yankees5560]

Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 12 2023 6:30PM
KC Mahomes O

(-115)DraftKings 101 KAN vs 102 PHI double-dime bet

Analysis:
Sat Morning 2/11 Update

I was looking to play KC WR Tony OVER(s) but he got an injury tweak Friday, so I PASSSED on him

I was looking to play punts UNDER 7.5 but the current number of -175 UNDER is just too much vig.

Passing on these.

Next update: Saturday Night 8pm PST

*********





NOTES:

If you have a rogue book with a 51.5 play the UNDER for just a pizza bet (Lean UNDER)

A customer indicated he has a rogue book allowing 8 point teasers at -120 (I have never seen this!) and dealing 51.5

If so play UNDER 51.5 and

Tease KC 1.5 to 9.5, with UN 59.5 -120

DO NOT TEASE THIS GAME AT NORMAL NUMBERs!!!!!


*****



2* Play

KC Mahomes Pass Yards OVER 288 -115

Draft Kings has 287.5, FanDuel 288.5, many other books have this same number(s).


This play is good up to 290.5

I was hoping to wait until 3pm PST today to give out any plays, but this was going to get hit before that...... so I had to give it out

NOTE: Mahomes should keep going UP. I will likely personally be looking to bet him UNDER at post once it gets above 300, fyi.........




*****

I will outline EVERY bet I personally make; many of these will not be available, but look for them, and Note this is what I have bet for myself:

Any team miss 2 fgs? NO​	-500​
Both teams 35 fg Bet NO​	-130​
More Points 2h​	-145​
More Tds than fg​	-330​
KC team 2h OV 12 team points​	-125​
Sanders 1st td v Pacheco​	-115​
Sanders 1st td vs. Mckinon​	-160​
Mahomes OV 37.5 pass attempts​	105​
Mah OV 287.5 pass yds​	-110​
Opening KO t back bet NO​	+155​
A start QB has neg rush yds, bet NO​	-750​
SC 1st 3 min, bet NO​	-550​
2h-.5 -110 vs. 1h​	-112​
short TD un 1.5​	-155​
1h UN 25-119​	-119​
Philly​	+1.5​
KC​	+2.5​
Team to score last wins -200​	-200​
Final Score of Game lands EVEN​	+130​
Final score of Game lands ODD​	-110​
Coinflip TAILS​	-100​
Phil RB Boston Scott Long run UN 6.5​	-100​
More 1st downs EAGLES​	-110​
Phil WR Quez Watkins UN 13.5​	-110​
KC Noah Gray UN 11.5 pass yds​	-110​
Goedert OVER 4.5 Catches​	-120​
Sanders OVER 12.5 rush attempts​	-110​
Punts UNDER 7.5​	-140​
No score in 1st 5:30 of game​	-160​
KELCE OV 6.5 catches -140​	-140​

LEAN KC at current number...


Reminder:

DO NOT TEASE the Super Bowl

LOOK to AVOID all "needle in haystack" bets like exact final score, exact number of points scored, who will score 1st Td, etc.

Focus on bets with just 2 outcomes, bet OV/UN, Yes/No

In general, typically if there is value it is betting on the bigger vig side of a prop bet.

By example, if we get NO OT -800 that's good. YES Otime 6-1 is TERRIBLE

 

[PhillyBurb]

Would like to see Jack Jones 25* Super Bowl play if anyone has it. This one is going to be interesting!!

 

[steve021]

Jack Brayman

100 Dimes - Eagles

Brayman’s play is eagles 1st half only FYI

 

[danmarino1]

kelso??

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-528#post-14095016

 

[bribux]

asianhandicap1x2
SPAIN: LALIGA
Villarreal – Barcelona
Barcelona -0.75 @ 2.00

 

[bribux]

spanishbet eu
SPAIN: LALIGA
Getafe – Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano +0

 

[bribux]

overmartingale de
2 UNITS
PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2
Academico Viseu – SC Farense
Over 2.5 @ 2.10

 

[bribux]

bet-my-ticket
Lille -Strasbourg : Over 2 @ 1.40
Maritimo – Braga : Over 2 @ 1.42
Total Odds : 1.98

 

[HowBoutThemCowboys!]

Should we follow this guy AJ Hoffman? He's been ON FIRE for nearly 2 weeks

(by on fire I mean burning all our money)

AJ HOFFMAN HAS BEEN A MODEL OF CONSISTENCY THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, PERFORMING AS SET FORTH BELOW TODAY, ABOUT THE SAME LAST SATURDAY, NOT A LOT BETTER THE SATURDAY BEFORE, AND MOST DAYS IN BETWEEN DURING THE WEEK -- ANY IDEA HOW MANY UNITS UP OR DOWN ON THIS TODAY? (actual lines used on 2 plays, 1 a push which was not)

2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Montana State Bobcats	-6½	-200
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Lehigh Mountain Hawks	-7	-220
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Virginia Cavaliers	-6 (OT miracle)	100
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Oral Roberts Golden Eagles	-12½	-220
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Clemson Tigers	+8	-220
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	La Salle Explorers	-3½	200
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Georgia State Panthers	+8	-330
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Pennsylvania Quakers	+2	200
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Creighton Bluejays	-4.5	-330
2/11/23	Sat	CBB Sides	Oklahoma Sooners	+3½	-220

2/11/23 Sat CBB Sides Gonzaga minus 13 -- another loss -220
2/11/23 Money line parlay Marquette, Texas, Illinois winner for $127 -- actually I think all 3 covered the spread, $127
so why weren't these his plays?

How many units is that?