Super Bowl line movement vol. reverse movement

[Cantpickem]

started to see Den -1 and +$ @ -2.

 

[SerfCap]

a fool??? i have been a professional gambler for over 20 yrs and hit at a % that would compare to anyone in the world. made quite a living at it. i don't factor in public bullshit information. only a fool does that.

What's your play for the game?

 

[KillaRSox]

a fool??? i have been a professional gambler for over 20 yrs and hit at a % that would compare to anyone in the world. made quite a living at it. i don't factor in public bullshit information. only a fool does that.

Your such a big shot!

 

[JimmyJet]

I am on Seattle at +110 and Seattle +2. Good luck Seer. Respect your opinion.

 

[seer]

Those percentages are off
SEA 29.93%
DEN 70.07%

these numbers are from 5 books with the avg taken from the 5
naturally the numbers will vary from place to place dont be so technical it is only a few % pts diff from what u have.
bottom line is there are 70% + - of public on den

 

[halekulani]

5d -142 for sea +3

:\

by sunday seattle will be +1 or pickem
i'm really hoping it isn't tho.

 

[seer]

Capped this game at 26-24 in favor of Denver.
More value in the total than the spread IMO..

and yet in another thread u said they would score 28???????

 

[Cantpickem]

Pinny down to -1.5

01/30 06:12 AM	+1½ -103	-1½ -105
01/30 06:12 AM	+1½ -104	-1½ -104
01/30 12:10 AM	+1½ -105	-1½ -103
01/30 12:04 AM	+1½ -104	-1½ -104
01/30 12:03 AM	+2 -110	-2 +102
01/29 11:57 PM	+1 +102	-1 -110
01/29 11:57 PM	+1 +101	-1 -109
01/29 11:56 PM	+1½ -106	-1½ -102
01/29 09:14 PM	+1½ -104	-1½ -104
01/29 07:29 PM	+2 -112	-2 +104
01/29 06:15 PM	+2 -110	-2 +102
01/29 06:14 PM	+2 -113	-2 +104
01/29 04:54 PM	+2 -111	-2 +103
01/29 04:29 PM	+2 -109	-2 +101
01/29 03:47 PM	+2 -110	-2 +102
01/29 02:54 PM	+2 -108	-2 +100
01/29 02:54 PM	+2 -109	-2 +101
01/29 07:57 AM	+2 -107	-2 -101
01/28 10:28 PM	+2 -106	-2 -102
01/28 07:54 PM	+2 -108	-2 +100
01/28 07:25 PM	+2 -104	-2 -104
01/28 07:16 PM	+2 -102	-2 -106
01/28 07:16 PM	+2 -104	-2 -104
01/28 07:15 PM	+2 -105	-2 -103
01/28 07:13 PM	+2 +100	-2 -108
01/28 07:13 PM	+2 -102	-2 -106
01/28 07:11 PM	+2 -104	-2 -104
01/28 07:11 PM	+2 -103	-2 -105
01/28 07:11 PM	+2 -106	-2 -102
01/28 07:10 PM	+2 -105	-2 -103
01/28 07:10 PM	+2 -108	-2 +100
01/28 07:10 PM	+2 -107	-2 -101
01/28 04:54 PM	+2 -110	-2 +102
01/28 04:00 PM	+2 -111	-2 +103
01/26 09:49 PM	+2 -109	-2 +101
01/26 04:42 PM	+2 -108	-2 +100
01/26 04:42 PM	+2 -109	-2 +101
01/26 10:20 AM	+2 -104	-2 -104
01/25 07:26 PM	+2 -106	-2 -102
01/22 07:21 PM	+2 -105	-2 -103
01/22 11:11 AM	+2 -103	-2 -105
01/21 12:05 PM	+2 -102	-2 -106
01/21 11:52 AM	+2 -103	-2 -107
01/20 06:29 PM	+2 -105	-2 -105
01/20 06:11 PM	+2 -108	-2 -102
01/20 02:34 PM	+2 -104	-2 -106
01/20 01:45 PM	+2 -105	-2 -105
01/20 01:24 PM	+2 -104	-2 -106
01/20 11:02 AM	+2 -101	-2 -109
01/20 11:01 AM	+2 -102	-2 -108
01/20 11:01 AM	+2 -101	-2 -109
01/20 11:01 AM	+2 -102	-2 -108
01/20 11:00 AM	+2 -104	-2 -106
01/20 09:40 AM	+2 -105	-2 -105
01/20 09:40 AM	+1½ +101	-1½ -111
01/20 09:20 AM	+1½ -102	-1½ -108
01/20 09:16 AM	+1½ -105	-1½ -105
01/20 09:15 AM	+1½ -107	-1½ -103
01/20 08:24 AM	+1½ -108	-1½ -102
01/20 08:01 AM	+1½ -106	-1½ -104
01/19 11:35 PM	+1½ -105	-1½ -105
01/19 11:16 PM	+1½ -106	-1½ -104
01/19 10:59 PM	+1½ -107	-1½ -103
01/19 10:47 PM	+1½ -105	-1½ -105
01/19 10:46 PM	+2 -110	-2 +100
01/19 10:46 PM	+2 -108	-2 -102
01/19 10:45 PM	+2 -106	-2 -104
01/19 10:44 PM	+2 -105	-2 -105
01/19 10:27 PM	+2 -101	-2 -109
01/19 10:24 PM	+2 -103	-2 -107
01/19 10:23 PM	+1½ +100	-1½ -110
01/19 10:21 PM	+1½ -103	-1½ -107
01/19 10:20 PM	+1½ -104	-1½ -106
01/19 10:16 PM	+1 -101	-1 -109
01/19 10:16 PM	PK +102	PK -113
01/19 10:16 PM	PK +100	PK -110
01/19 10:13 PM	PK -105	PK -105
01/19 10:11 PM	PK -106	PK -104
01/19 10:09 PM	-1 -103	+1 -107
01/19 10:03 PM	-1 -107	+1 -103
01/19 10:03 PM	-1 -108	+1 -102
01/19 10:01 PM	-1 -107	+1 -103
01/19 10:00 PM	-1 -108	+1 -102
01/19 09:59 PM	-1 -107	+1 -103
01/19 09:59 PM	-1 -109	+1 -101
01/19 09:59 PM	-1 -110	+1 +100
01/19 09:58 PM	-1 -108	+1 -102
01/19 09:58 PM	-1 -111	+1 +101
01/19 09:57 PM	-1 -108	+1 -102
01/19 09:56 PM	-1 -110	+1 +100
01/19 09:55 PM	-1 -112	+1 +102
01/19 09:55 PM	-1 -107	+1 -103
01/19 09:55 PM	-1 -110	+1 +100
01/19 09:54 PM	-1 -105	+1 -105
01/19 09:54 PM	-1 -110	+1 +100
01/19 09:54 PM	-1 -113	+1 +102
01/19 09:54 PM	PK -115	PK +104
01/19 09:53 PM	PK -105	PK -105

 

[Samhain]

and yet in another thread u said they would score 28???????

Yup!
The 26 is based off of my capping method, but rarely do teams score 26 so I gave a 2pt. advantage to Denver based on their offensive weapons.
I used the same capping method for the AFC Championship game and the actual point differential was within 5 points of the actual score.
I use my capping method as one tool. The other is based on Public perception.