What took you so long to tell me I'm wrong on this subject?
I hope you never take a job on a suicide support line.
Hey here's an idea I could get one of those Staples "that was easy" buttons and re-record the message as "No your Wrong"
that way when ever I post something on the RX I can follow it up by pushing the button. Think how much time that can save us both.
If you think I have no advantage would you be interested in a coin toss wager?
We need a Monte Carlo analysis!
suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row, so that if the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. Since the probability of a run of five successive heads is only [SUP]1[/SUP]⁄[SUB]32[/SUB] (one in thirty-two), a person subject to the gambler's fallacy might believe that this next flip was less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct, and is a manifestation of the gambler's fallacy; the event of 5 heads in a row and the event of "first 4 heads, then a tails" are equally likely, each having probability [SUP]1[/SUP]⁄[SUB]32[/SUB].
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy#An_example:_coin-tossing
Your so right we really needed that. If I didn't know the professor from Gilligan's Island was dead I'd swear you are him.
Who would know where to find this kind of mathematical mind warping stuff? I almost had a seizure just trying to read it. Put this in with your facts: Soon as in tonight while your pouring through your library of the worlds most boring facts I'll be out with my GF partying and discussing what kind of stupid fun we all can have this weekend.
As a matter of fact she kind of put me off twice this week when I was looking for love, so based on your numbers I don't have a much better than 50/50 chance of getting lucky tonight.
Since I don't go by the Monte Carlo analysis I believe my chances are much closer to "A SURE THING." . . . .You can bet on that!
Basic math shouldn't be "mind warping" Then again, given the level of critical thinking and reading comprehension you routinely exhibit here, I'm not surprised you would describe it that way.
Anyway, Enjoy your gamblers fallacy.
You gotta love someone so proudly proclaiming that they believe in 'the due theory'
Classic.
If you flip a coin say, 10,000 times the probability of heads and tails is 50/50....almost, but not quite .....A lesser number of tosses doesn't guarantee 50/50 results. Now, if the coin is rigged, or out-of- balance (kind-of- like loaded dice)......all probabilities of 50/50 are off. Of course, we all know how the NFL operates now days.....We don't put anything past them....right?
There are 2 entirely different questions being answered in this thread.
What is the probability of the next coin toss coming up in this year's Super Bowl?
Answer = 1/2.
What is the probability of 6 heads out of 6 tosses?
Answer = 1/64 = about 1.6% chance
The probability of getting 1 tail and 5 heads in 6 tosses is 3/32. about a 9.4% chance.
In 6 independent coin tosses, you are almost 8% more likely to get 1 tail/5 heads than 6 heads.
There have been 23 Tails and 24 Heads in SuperBowl history.
What we need to do is calculate the probability of 24 Tails out of 48 tosses vs. 25 Heads out of 48 tosses.
The probability of getting 24 Tails is about 0.46% higher than the likelihood of 25 Heads occurring. A minuscule percentage, but still an advantage.
Probability of 24 Tails / 48 tosses
Probability of 25 Heads / 48 tosses
On a side not, Muscle Pharm's Assault pre-workout mix is amazing lol. I haven't been this focused in a long time.
What is the probability of the next coin toss coming up in this year's Super Bowl?
Answer = 1/2.
What is the probability of 6 heads out of 6 tosses?
Answer = 1/64 = about 1.6% chance
The probability of getting 1 tail and 5 heads in 6 tosses is 3/32. about a 9.4% chance.
In 6 independent coin tosses, you are almost 8% more likely to get 1 tail/5 heads than 6 heads.
There have been 23 Tails and 24 Heads in SuperBowl history.
What we need to do is calculate the probability of 24 Tails out of 48 tosses vs. 25 Heads out of 48 tosses.
The probability of getting 24 Tails is about 0.46% higher than the likelihood of 25 Heads occurring. A minuscule percentage, but still an advantage.
Probability of 24 Tails / 48 tosses
Probability of 25 Heads / 48 tosses
On a side not, Muscle Pharm's Assault pre-workout mix is amazing lol. I haven't been this focused in a long time.
The problem with your theory is that these are not the same coins, they occur at different locations, at different places and times, etc... What does one of these coin flips have to do with the other...just because they happen to each be in a Super Bowl? You are showing the probability of flipping the same coin 6 times in a row landing and it on the same side (1/64). That's not the same as a separate event, coin toss in the Super Bowl each year.There are 2 entirely different questions being answered in this thread.
What is the probability of the next coin toss coming up in this year's Super Bowl?
Answer = 1/2.
What is the probability of 6 heads out of 6 tosses?
Answer = 1/64 = about 1.6% chance
The probability of getting 1 tail and 5 heads in 6 tosses is 3/32. about a 9.4% chance.
In 6 independent coin tosses, you are almost 8% more likely to get 1 tail/5 heads than 6 heads.
There have been 23 Tails and 24 Heads in SuperBowl history.
What we need to do is calculate the probability of 24 Tails out of 48 tosses vs. 25 Heads out of 48 tosses.
The probability of getting 24 Tails is about 0.46% higher than the likelihood of 25 Heads occurring. A minuscule percentage, but still an advantage.
Probability of 24 Tails / 48 tosses
Probability of 25 Heads / 48 tosses
On a side not, Muscle Pharm's Assault pre-workout mix is amazing lol. I haven't been this focused in a long time.
It's not a theory, it's math. Flipping a coin 6 times in a row today = flipping a coin once a day for 6 days straight = flipping a coin once a year for 6 years. Each and EVERY flip is an independent event, just the method of collecting the data is different.
What's the chance of a coin toss being heads? The answer is 50%.
What's the chance of tossing 24 heads and 24 tails out of 48 tosses? 0.46% more likely than tossing 25 heads out of 48 tosses.
Have to interject here.
The odds of it going:
H
H
H
H
H
H
are 1/64 indeed. However, the odds of it going:
H
H
H
H
H
T
Are also 1/64.
The five outcomes already happened, so this is a true 50-50 proposition.
You would be right in betting tails as a high-prop wager if you did this beforehand (for instance, if you said, "I bet there will be at least one tails the next six times you flip this coin.") but the other five flips already happened.
The odds of it going:
H
H
H
H
H
H
are 1/64 indeed. However, the odds of it going:
H
H
H
H
H
T
Are also 1/64.
The five outcomes already happened, so this is a true 50-50 proposition.
You would be right in betting tails as a high-prop wager if you did this beforehand (for instance, if you said, "I bet there will be at least one tails the next six times you flip this coin.") but the other five flips already happened.
This thread turned into a Giant math problem but the bottom line is I cashed. Unfortunately I got caught up in the probability stuff and lost some of the confidence I started our with. I intended to go large but scaled back some. In the end I still made a nice profit.
For future purposes when ever the same result is riding a 5 year streak I'll be on the other side in year 6.
Some people may not think the odds aren't in my favor but I'll take that chance every time.
For future purposes when ever the same result is riding a 5 year streak I'll be on the other side in year 6.
Some people may not think the odds aren't in my favor but I'll take that chance every time.
