Thanks XSPower!
Treasure Island at -3.5 in Vegas according to Dog radio.
Must be vigged, but they don't want to refund wagers if a push occurs.
One good point made is that Patriot winning superbowls were by
at most 4 points.
Lots of props up already and more soon. Over 300 props!!!
Show guest likes a TD score by RB Blount Pats -165.
He scores a TD over 75% of pat games, so it may be worth a shot.
I say, A Pro bettor can do better than a -165 prop imho....
w-thumbs!^
Treasure Island at -3.5 in Vegas according to Dog radio.
Must be vigged, but they don't want to refund wagers if a push occurs.
One good point made is that Patriot winning superbowls were by
at most 4 points.
Lots of props up already and more soon. Over 300 props!!!
Show guest likes a TD score by RB Blount Pats -165.
He scores a TD over 75% of pat games, so it may be worth a shot.
I say, A Pro bettor can do better than a -165 prop imho....
w-thumbs!^
Seattle had Earl Thomas -- they weren't the same without him. And the Pat's played SEA close. They fell 1-yard short of tying it up. In a 16-game season you are not likely to win every game. That the Pat's lost a close game to SEA doesn't say much about the way they matchup with ATL.
But both teams have great offenses. Only 1 team has a good D. ANd it isn't a great D. But even accounting for their weak schedule, they have showed up. They are #1 in scoring D. So they shut down bad offenses. Bad defenses don't consistently hold teams to so few points. Even SEA gave up 30 to the Rams. NE never had a stinker except for the SEA game. They faced weak teams but they crushed those teams. Not sure why that is a mark against them. If they ranked 10th in scoring D you could say "hey, if they had a tough schedule they would be in the bottom half of the league."
But when you give up less points than anyone, it shows you handled weak offenses as you should. Add to this the situational football, the 14-2 record and the playoff experience....
Anyway, ATL has a chance. I just don't' accept the narrative that NE's defense sucks because they didn't face good teams. They just crushed Pittsburgh, who has a SB-winning QB and the best WR in the AFC.
Shitty defenses don't lead the league in scoring defense, regardless of schedule. And honestly, the league so weak that few teams didn't play a ton of bad QBs.
But 1) they have no control who they face; 2) they crushed those teams -- it wasn't like they barely skated by. It is one thing to squeak by with a weak schedule, ie the Texans. It is another to face a weak schedule and respond by leading the league in scoring defense. By your logic, strength of schedule is some kind of failure -- to be mocked and laughed at. But they have no agency over who they play, and they held bad teams to few points. They kept several teams out of the endzone altogether. And they were money ATS -- they beat bad team handedly. That isn't a weakness, it is a demonstration of strength.
It would be more impressive if they had the hardest schedule and went 14-2, but they didn't have that chance. But they beat the best teams they faced. At worst, NE has a decent defense. That still gives them a decisive edge over ATL, who has a shit defense. By the way, when the #1 scoring defense has faced the #1 scoring offense (and it has happened quite a few times, including 90 G-Men, 2002 Bucs) they tend to win.
Anyway, I am a homer, so take it with a grain of salt. But I also win more bets than I lose, so I don't think I am being totally irrational here. NE has been a profitable team to bet on this year. And most Pitt backers last week were making these same talking points about Strength of Schedule. All of them had losing tickets and never felt good about the game, really.
NE & Atlanta had 5 common opponents in the 2016-2017 season.
Atlanta allowed fewer points against than NE in 3 out of 5 of those.
Overall NE allowed a mere 3 points less than Atlanta in the combined total of points allowed in the 5 common opponent games.*
* Since Atlanta played one of the teams twice, i used the average number of points allowed in the two games.
Points allowed vs common opponents:
Seattle: NE 31, Atl 20 & 26 (ave 23)
Arizona: NE 21, Atlanta 19
San Fr: NE 17, Atlanta 13
LA Ra: NE 10, Atlanta 14
Denv: NE 3, Atlanta 16
Total: NE 82, Atlanta 85
"The Falcon D is crazy fast. The rush off the ends and MLB play will be the best NE may have seen all year. The ATL secondary can be had because they play so physical.....tons of PI calls.....in which could loom huge in this game."
"I dont think there is a faster D in all the NFL. The game vs Pitt is a terrible match-up. Pitt plays strictly zone D. They dont blitz alot. Plays right into a team like NE hands. ATL plays D different. They take more risk."
"I am pretty sure the Falcon O is a big mismatch vs the NE D. NE has a very large and physical front 7. Not super fast but strong. They hold the point of contact at the LOS very well. If they dont get pressure on Ryan he will pick them apart....in which the same can be said with Brady. The biggest mismatch on the field will be the ATL rushing attack vs a very physical but slower front 7. Freeman and Coleman are quick and legit. Complete different running styles that what teams like the Steelers have."
"Both teams are hot. ATL the last 6-8 games is totally different than what they were early on. I cant believe folks are not talking about missing Gronk."
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1077733
"I dont think there is a faster D in all the NFL. The game vs Pitt is a terrible match-up. Pitt plays strictly zone D. They dont blitz alot. Plays right into a team like NE hands. ATL plays D different. They take more risk."
"I am pretty sure the Falcon O is a big mismatch vs the NE D. NE has a very large and physical front 7. Not super fast but strong. They hold the point of contact at the LOS very well. If they dont get pressure on Ryan he will pick them apart....in which the same can be said with Brady. The biggest mismatch on the field will be the ATL rushing attack vs a very physical but slower front 7. Freeman and Coleman are quick and legit. Complete different running styles that what teams like the Steelers have."
"Both teams are hot. ATL the last 6-8 games is totally different than what they were early on. I cant believe folks are not talking about missing Gronk."
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1077733
I understand questioning the Patriot defense but doesn't Atlanta have one of if not the worst red zone defenses in football? They gave up 24 or more points in 11 of their 16 regular season games and lost 3 games versus non playoff teams 2 of which were at home/. Right or wrong, I'm taking Brady over Matt Ryan who historically has thrown a pick 6 at the worst time.
I don't know about that, but Atlanta played much better offences & QB's than the Patriots, so to compare the two defences on that basis is, as the saying goes, a case of apples & oranges. That's way i narrowed it down to a comparison of points allowed against their common opponents, as in post #28.
Tom Brady SuperBowl Stat$
Tom Brady Stats for ALL his SuperBowls.
| Passing | Rushing | Receiving | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | SB | Tm | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Lng | Rate | Att | Yds | TD | Lng | Rec | Yds | TD | Lng |
| 2001 | XXXVI | NWE | STL | W, 20-17 | 16 | 27 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 86.2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | XXXVIII | NWE | CAR | W, 32-29 | 32 | 48 | 354 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 100.5 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | XXXIX | NWE | PHI | W, 24-21 | 23 | 33 | 236 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 110.2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | XLII | NWE | NYG | L, 14-17 | 29 | 48 | 266 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 82.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2011 | XLVI | NWE | NYG | L, 17-21 | 27 | 41 | 276 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 91.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | XLIX | NWE | SEA | W, 28-24 | 37 | 50 | 328 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 101.1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tom Brady Stats for ALL his SuperBowls.
Ok, 4 out of 7 Supers, Tom goes Over 25 Completions.
I Love it here, Atlanta will push Brady to Score, and Pass he will
against the 27th ranked pass defense.
You win this bet even if the Pats can't bring home the SB.
Just Sit back and Count!!!
Psycho Tom will GO OFF on Sunday! Atl will not get the pressure needed on TB.
Absolute Best Bet for SB LI.
Many max wagers on this Wonderful prop!!!!!
Game ML back to -150, that is worth it, but still trying to determine amount of any other plays.
Brady Over 310.5 yards isn't so much of a gimmy, but likely also hits. However, Brady passes are often short.
And no reason to take the chance at this point.
T. Brady Over 25.5 Completions -120 12k to Win 10k
cheersgif
I Love it here, Atlanta will push Brady to Score, and Pass he will
against the 27th ranked pass defense.
You win this bet even if the Pats can't bring home the SB.
Just Sit back and Count!!!
Psycho Tom will GO OFF on Sunday! Atl will not get the pressure needed on TB.
Absolute Best Bet for SB LI.
Many max wagers on this Wonderful prop!!!!!
Game ML back to -150, that is worth it, but still trying to determine amount of any other plays.
Brady Over 310.5 yards isn't so much of a gimmy, but likely also hits. However, Brady passes are often short.
And no reason to take the chance at this point.
T. Brady Over 25.5 Completions -120 12k to Win 10k
cheersgif
Most books are $500 max, start pounding is my recommendation!!!!
Call, they will often allow more action, especially for the SB.
Or spread it in Vegas if that's an option for you.
Pay the -125 if you cannot find -120 any longer.
**Note: One negative to the Over 310.5 yards for Brady is that
Atlanta's fast defense very well may get to the ball carrier quikly,
not allowing many Yards After the Catch.
:toast:
Stick with the Completions! Confidence is Extremely High!
GL
Call, they will often allow more action, especially for the SB.
Or spread it in Vegas if that's an option for you.
Pay the -125 if you cannot find -120 any longer.
**Note: One negative to the Over 310.5 yards for Brady is that
Atlanta's fast defense very well may get to the ball carrier quikly,
not allowing many Yards After the Catch.
:toast:
Stick with the Completions! Confidence is Extremely High!
GL
