Good luck tonight my friend!!!!
Sunshine,
As you probably know, I am not a big fan of chases (I might even have said that on this thread before), but I do try to be constructive/helpful nonetheless.
Looking at your strategy, you are blindly chasing the dog in the first game on the card, it will go through runs like this that you can't predict - inherently this is the danger of chases...two or three chase losses and you lose all of your winnings with a very large chance of ruin. Also, I noticed that your play size seemed to increase when you started winning (I think you went from 110 to 330) which shows a little too much confidence after too few plays. I would suggest trying not to "get rich quick", but if you had stuck at 110, you could have upped your wager size with each successive loss and given yourself an opportunity to "chase the chase"...
Obviously, the inherent danger is simply that you are at the mercy of statistics and like any Martingale-esque system, it is doomed for failure in the long run, people don't believe they will hit a run longer than 5 or 6 losses, but it is entirely possible no matter how much the numbers are in your favor, even a 60% system has an 1% chance of a 5 game losing streak. Blind betting (truly 50%) has a 3+% chance of the same.
Maybe I am being naive, but I don't think the books put a game at 1st rotation for many good reasons (if so, why Purdue vs Ark St???) If I am wrong and they really do this, my gut would be that when a huge line game with a (sorry to alumni) no-name school playing, I would avoid as they are probably clearing out chasers.
So to distill my thoughts...
(i) Chase low and increase after multiple losses to improve odds of recovery (or potentially accelerate ruin) or vice versa, chase high and pare back with each victory to minimize losses when they come and stay low until you hit another win. Lots of options.
(ii) Why not drastically decrease your odds of failure and develop simple system (with say...60+% historical) that typically generates only 1-2 plays per day max and chase that instead? Will decrease odds of ruin dramatically. Honestly though, if you develop a 60% historical system, just straight bet it and REALLY remove the risk of ruin...
Just out of interest, have you done any historical analysis on this? Be interested to see the long term history.
Sorry for hogging your thread, just wanted to get some middle of the night thoughts out there for you to think about.
Good luck
Oz
As you probably know, I am not a big fan of chases (I might even have said that on this thread before), but I do try to be constructive/helpful nonetheless.
Looking at your strategy, you are blindly chasing the dog in the first game on the card, it will go through runs like this that you can't predict - inherently this is the danger of chases...two or three chase losses and you lose all of your winnings with a very large chance of ruin. Also, I noticed that your play size seemed to increase when you started winning (I think you went from 110 to 330) which shows a little too much confidence after too few plays. I would suggest trying not to "get rich quick", but if you had stuck at 110, you could have upped your wager size with each successive loss and given yourself an opportunity to "chase the chase"...
Obviously, the inherent danger is simply that you are at the mercy of statistics and like any Martingale-esque system, it is doomed for failure in the long run, people don't believe they will hit a run longer than 5 or 6 losses, but it is entirely possible no matter how much the numbers are in your favor, even a 60% system has an 1% chance of a 5 game losing streak. Blind betting (truly 50%) has a 3+% chance of the same.
Maybe I am being naive, but I don't think the books put a game at 1st rotation for many good reasons (if so, why Purdue vs Ark St???) If I am wrong and they really do this, my gut would be that when a huge line game with a (sorry to alumni) no-name school playing, I would avoid as they are probably clearing out chasers.
So to distill my thoughts...
(i) Chase low and increase after multiple losses to improve odds of recovery (or potentially accelerate ruin) or vice versa, chase high and pare back with each victory to minimize losses when they come and stay low until you hit another win. Lots of options.
(ii) Why not drastically decrease your odds of failure and develop simple system (with say...60+% historical) that typically generates only 1-2 plays per day max and chase that instead? Will decrease odds of ruin dramatically. Honestly though, if you develop a 60% historical system, just straight bet it and REALLY remove the risk of ruin...
Just out of interest, have you done any historical analysis on this? Be interested to see the long term history.
Sorry for hogging your thread, just wanted to get some middle of the night thoughts out there for you to think about.
Good luck
Oz
Thanks for all the advice. Season 45-41 still plus +$715
Easy one tonight. At 5 dimes right now it's Depaul +6 first half
Depaul +6 -115 FH 330/300
Will keep playing this as long as I'm plus money on this system. And no I don't really know the exact record but like in a 6 game chase over the last few years it's only has a couple losses.
Easy one tonight. At 5 dimes right now it's Depaul +6 first half
Depaul +6 -115 FH 330/300
Will keep playing this as long as I'm plus money on this system. And no I don't really know the exact record but like in a 6 game chase over the last few years it's only has a couple losses.
WOW! I hope everyone sees how risky playing chase systems are. He's down $2655 in just 4 days trying to chase his $300 winnings. Never ever believe those 89-0 records that some chase players post cuz all it takes is one loss and you are wiped out. Just like Sunshine, he's down way too much from his chases and he has to quit cuz there's no more money. Keep this thread around for newbies who don't know about chases.
Truly the sad part here is the hubris and character. Shows a real lack of care for other people's money (no matter how big or small) to just walk away the minute your "hobby" gets difficult, rather than posting cocky comments like "anyone feeling rich yet" @ +$3K (not exactly the usual definition of rich) and on other people's threads "so you don't want me posting winners for you?".
I have tried to be patient and help, but clearly you want an easy path and are not willing to work at it.
Good luck with the "new hobby".
Oz
I have tried to be patient and help, but clearly you want an easy path and are not willing to work at it.
Good luck with the "new hobby".
Oz
So if it didn't crash and burn, why didn't you keep playing it? If you believed in it, you would have played DePaul 2H. You clearly lost faith in your chase. Whether you are plus money now means nothing, that is circumstantial.
Why would you play a system/method/chase where "I don't really know the exact record"...and you would put it out there for others to follow? That's the lack of care I am talking about in my prior post. If it was a disaster of a system (say 40% winners) you would literally be throwing other peoples money away...since you don't know, you are literally gambling with other people's money who come here for good gambling advice/options.
I am not going to comment again, this is not worth my time. Any time you are serious about seeking a way to be at least capping a little let the board know and hopefully they will help. Do what MileenaWins did, ask questions and don't worry about looking like a noob...oh and be willing to work. Good capping takes effort, something a lot of people seem to forget.
Good luck.
Oz
