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7 Unit Play. #893. Take FSU +6 over Duke (Sunday @ 1pm est). To give you a preface, this is just my 2nd 7* Selection of my lifetime. I don't make over 5* plays very often and the first 7* Selection I made was when the 49ers defeated the Redskins in my NFL GOY by the hook -2.5. That game was a tight cover and hopefull this one will not be as tight. This is also the first selection over 5* I've made in Basketball this year overall. I like FSU a great deal today. This is not to take anything away from Coach Mike and the Blue Devils. Look, I respect anyone who works hard, has discipline and instills good values in anybody. Mike K. is one of the best ever had it and you have to admire him for that. But, that does not mean that Duke is not vulnerable and that does not mean they cover this spread, and that does not even mean they win this contest today. But, Leonard Hamilton, the head coach of FSU is a stud. His players play for him with incredible loyalty and I've watched his career over the past few years and it has only flourished. Did you know Hamilton is one of the seven all time winningest Coaches in the ACC? How about the fact he has won over 300 games since January 23rd of 2008 when he reached this milestone when his team defeated Virginia? How about the fact the Seminoles have won 19 straight games the last three years which had not been done since the 91'-93' season. Plus, this year, the Seminoles defeating Flordida has allowed FSU to defeat a ranked opponent for six straight years. Did you know whow as the ACC leader in FT percentage last year - try FSU. This year, nothing has changed. This year FSU shoots 72.5% from the charity stripe - while Duke shoots 72%. Are you surprised yet? I say all this to state that FSU being here is not a fluke. This team has every right to be here. They have earned it. We hear so much about Duke and the national media giving Coach Mike K a "b-job" in the news reel, quality coaches such as Leonard Hamilton and the work he has done goes unnoticed. But, I'm glad it gets unnoticed. This is because we get Hamilton and the Seminoles as +6 point dogs for this very reason. FSU lost to Duke earlier this year at home 58-66 - where they covered as 9.5 home dogs. Then, this team went on the road to Duke in a revenge game where they were dogged by 12.5 points and lost 81-84. Let me take you through that game - it was a game that FSU was actually leading at halftime 40-34. Despite scoring 41 points in the second half, Duke was able to score 50 due to the help of the Zebras and went to the stripe a total of 31 times to FSU's 20 times. I don't see that happening today. FSU did not shoot all that well from the charity striple from that game going 13 for 20 (65%) which is a bit uncharacteristic wihle Duke hit its usual 71% from the line at home. However, this game is different. Duke does not have the friendly confines of Cameron. This team struggled against Maryland until the 10 minute mark of the second half when they finally started to pull away. Until then, Maryland and their limited scoring were able to hang tough. Well, FSU has more than Vasquez as a scoring option as compared to Maryland. FSU has the likes of Echefu, Alabi, Toney Douglas and Derwin Kitchen. I also want to point out that I FSU is strong on the boards having out rebounded Hansborough and UNC 35-34 and FSU had outrebounded Duke in Cameron in their las meeting 39-35. This is because FSU is a bit a leaner and they have the size down low which Duke gives up a bit as they only have Singler who is of relative decent size along with Henderson. I expect Schyer to get taken off the dribble as if Jon was having trouble covering backup point guard Hayes of Maryland - he is going to have his work cutout for him against a very athletic core group of FSU point guards. FSU is well coached, they are disciplined, I expect them to drive hard and often to the hoop and get to the line consequently. I expect FSU to shoot better from the line, and to win the battle of the boards once again. I respect Duke, but Hamilton will have his boys ready to play. I will gladly take the 6 points here, but I don't believe it will be necessary. FSU covered the 9.5 at home this year, they covered the 12.5 on the road this year losing by just 3 in Cameron, and they can certainly win Outright in Hotlanta without the points - but the 6 is nice. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS as an Underdog on neutral sites, 9-2-1 ATS as Underdogs of 0 to 6.5 points and Duke is just 3-7 ATS over their last contests. Besides, I'm an Indian Cowboy, the Seminoles will come through for me. I will be at this game - look for the brown fella' with the cowboy hat.
3 Unit Play. #897. Take Ohio State +6.5 over Purdue (Sunday @ 3:30pm est). I'm no Ohio State fan and my long-term clients no that. But, they are in a good spot today and I have to respect that. I watched the game when these two teams met the last time at Purdue and Ohio State was a debacle. They were horrible in that contest. If I can remember details about that game, you don't think these guys will? Ohio State travels well as they should have their fan base at this game and this program would love nothing more than to win the Big10 Tourney in front of their fan base in what has been a lackluster basketball year. But, Ohio State has truly earned a right of passage to this game. They have defeated a Wisconsin team that might have been playing its best basketball coming into the tourney and took care of a very good Michigan State team. Purdue did defeat a solid Penn State and man-handled an Illinois team - but don't forget, Illinois did not have Frasier in that game. I like the fact Purdue looked so dominant over Illinois - b/c that is not reality. After all, people forget, Illinois beat this Purdue team twice this year - once on the road in OT and then hammered them at home in Illinois - both games with Frasier. And, Ohio Staet lose to tihs team by 25 at in Purdue but also beat them in OT this year as well at home. The 6.5 points is nice here and there is a solid shot that Ohio State can win this game outright, I'll take the 6.5 here as Ohio State is playing decent basketball, has revenge, and in what might be a low scoring contest, the 6.5 is fine by me. Look, the Buckeyes are in the same spot as Purdue was in their last game was Illinois. They have lost to this Purdue team twice - just like Purdue had lost to Illinois twice. You don't think Ohio State is going to be fired up for this game. Look for the Buckeyes to play spirited basketball today and in the waning moments to make a run at this baby for the Outright.
Paid and Confirmed!!!
