Sunday Service Play Thread 1/30/2022

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Does anybody have Del Genio's one and only GOY? He's one of Al's guys... greatly appreciated.


Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5)


Burke: When the Chiefs and Bengals played in Week 17, one team adjusted at halftime and the other didn’t. Kansas City led 28-17 at half, but managed just three points in the second half as Cincinnati roared back for a 34-31 win and an AFC North Division title for the first time since 2015.

That first meeting featured 889 yards of offense, including 446 passing yards from Joe Burrow. The Chiefs had 7.1 yards per play and the Bengals had 7.5. It was an offensive showcase and bettors clearly have the same expectation for this game based on where the total has ended up.

Keep in mind, however, that last week’s Bills/Chiefs thriller was a 26-21 with under two minutes to play. Everything just went bonkers after that, as there were 25 points scored in the last 1:54 of regulation. If that doesn’t happen, this total is probably closer to the 51 or 51.5 that it opened to start the betting process.

The Bengals defense is undoubtedly stepping up in class after holding the Raiders and Titans to 35 combined points. However, Lou Anarumo has done a really good job with this unit and I’d expect the same here, especially after the second-half adjustments that were made in Week 17. Kansas City is hard to pin down, but teams have done it and the Bengals did it by holding the Chiefs to just three possessions in the second half.

These two offenses may move the football effectively, but we did see a lot of long, sustained drives in the first game, including six first downs by penalty for the Bengals to keep drives alive. This total is a lofty number for a game with these kinds of stakes, so I do like the under here.
I also believe that the Bengals are live at + 7. Coming into the playoffs, I thought that Cincinnati was the highest variance team in the AFC. They could lose to the Raiders, but could also beat any one of the other playoff teams. I still believe that to be true, especially because of Zac Taylor’s increased aggressiveness with the playcalling and downfield throws. I do think we see more of Joe Mixon in this game as a way to play a ball-control style, but the Bengals have been adept at making adjustments throughout the season.
My preferred bet is the under here, but I also like the Bengals getting a touchdown in a game that should be competitive throughout.
Picks: Under 54.5; Bengals + 7

Tuley:
This line opened between Chiefs -6.5 and -7.5 on Sunday night and quickly settled at -7. I missed the + 7.5, but I’m waiting to bet the Bengals as it could come back; we’ve seen some books go to Chiefs -7 (-115) and even Chiefs -7 (-120) during the middle of the week. Before Sunday’s game, I saw advance lines of Chiefs -4 and -4.5 vs. the Bengals, and that’s where I put the number.I didn’t see anything in Kansas City’s 42-36 overtime win against the Bills to change my line. Of course, everyone was amazed with Mahomes coming through in the clutch and pulling out an amazing victory. I suspect that’s why so many people are jumping back on the Chiefs bandwagon. However, what caught my attention was that the Kansas City defense was sieve-like throughout the game.
Granted, a lot of the credit goes to Josh Allen and the Bills offense, but I have no doubt the Bengals’ trio of quarterback Joe Burrow, running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (and the rest of the supporting cast) will have similar success and keep the Bengals in the game until the end. Another thing a lot of people seem to be forgetting is that the Bengals just beat the Chiefs 34-31 as 3.5-point home underdogs in Week 17 when the Chiefs were still trying for the No. 1 seed. That has to count for something. I would be happy getting just over a field goal, so getting a full touchdown is added value, and if we get the hook at + 7.5 that would make it the best bet of the weekend.
Pick: Bengals + 7 (but waiting for + 7.5)

Brown:
Burrow’s check-down throw last week to Samaje Perine glanced off his hands and into Amani Hooker's outstretched arms. It was the perfect example of an interception in the box score that shouldn't be labeled as a quarterback mistake.

It did snap Burrow’s five-game streak of finishing under his interception prop but ushered in an overcorrection in the market, as Burrow throwing zero interceptions has only been a plus price on two other occasions this season: against the Denver Broncos in Week 15 and when these two teams faced off in Week 17.

Burrow was clean in that matchup, as he’s been all season after posting the fourth-lowest turnover-worthy play percentage in the NFL and by far the lowest negatively-graded throw percentage. Burrow hasn't posted a turnover-worthy throw since Week 13 against the Los Angeles Chargers – a distant seven games ago.
Sportsbooks seem to be overcorrecting to the Bengals trailing, but unlike most quarterbacks, Burrow seems unfazed when playing from behind. PFF prices Burrow not throwing an interception as a greater than 50 percent proposition, making the plus price one of the best betting opportunities on Sunday. It’s heavily correlated with the Bengals covering the spread, but it seems like the rare proposition that can easily hit no matter what side of the game spread or total hit.
Pick: Joe Burrow Under 0.5 Interceptions (+ 110)

Brown:
Patrick Mahomes' passing touchdowns come in bunches, as he bookended his season by finishing over his prop number over the first four weeks and in his six most recent games. The Chiefs offense's midseason lull feels like a distant memory, back when Mahomes finished over his touchdown prop only once from Weeks 5 through 14. Mahomes is now 11-of-19 on the season.
The reason Mahomes has finished over his touchdown prop so consistently is Andy Reid's playcalling near the goal line. Kansas City is the only team that posted over a 10 percent pass rate over expectation on plays within 20 yards of the goal line. The ball is consistently in Mahomes' hands, and he’s rewarded the Chiefs with drive-capping touchdowns throughout the playoffs.
The market direction on the total indicates a preference for points among bettors, as it’s all the way up to 54.5. One of the easiest ways to play this direction is with Mahomes going over 2.5 passing touchdowns at a plus price because it's almost a requirement for this game to go over.
It is also likely if the Chiefs cover and this game goes under the point total, making it an obvious opportunity to hit. The Bengals defense had some success slowing Mahomes in the second half of Week 17, but it was only after they switched to a quarters or Cover-3 soft coverage to take away everything over the top.
At home, Mahomes knows the Bengals need a costly turnover at an inopportune time to win, so dinking and dunking down the field should serve up an easy victory while padding the box score. The plus price will most likely be gone by kickoff, making it the perfect early-week betting opportunity.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+ 116)
 

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Where wiseguys are leaning on NFL championship weekend​

By Josh Appelbaum (VSiN.com)


After a public wild-card round bonanza in which favorites went 5-1 ATS, dogs barked back in the divisional round, going 3-1 ATS with three outright wins. For those keeping track, favorites are 6-4 ATS this postseason while Unders hold the edge at 6-4.
Historically, the conference championship games have provided an edge to favorites and Overs. Since 2003, home favorites are 22-8 (73%) straight up this round and 17-13 ATS (57%). We've also seen overs go 22-11 (67%) over that stretch, including a perfect 4-0 over the past two years.
Will favorites and Overs continue to cash? Or will we see dogs bark and Unders come through?
Let's dive into both games and examine where the respected money is leaning.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54)​

The Bengals (12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS) took down the Raiders 26-19 in the wild-card round, covering as 6-point home favorites, then upset the Titans 19-16 in the divisional round, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) crushed the Steelers 42-21 in the wild-card round, covering as 11.5-point home favorites, then outlasted the Bills 42-36 in an overtime thriller, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Cincinnati is currently + 800 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM while the Chiefs are the favorite at + 120.

This line opened with Kansas City as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Chiefs at home after their instant-classic win over Buffalo. This lopsided betting has pushed Kansas City from -6.5 to -7. Some shops are flirting with a further move to 7.5. The Chiefs will likely be a popular teaser play (-7 to -1), which goes through the key number of 3. At this point, the Bengals offer buy-low value as a road contrarian dog with an inflated line, especially if you can wait it out and pounce on the hook (+ 7.5). There's some familiarity here, with the Bengals upsetting the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Cincinnati also has a rest advantage, playing on Saturday afternoon while the Chiefs played Sunday night.

Sharps have also hit this Over, steaming the total from 53.5 to 54.5. Some books opened as low as 50.5 and immediately adjusted upward. The forecast calls for low 40s with mild 5-mph winds and clear skies, perfect weather for football. Kansas City is 7-0 to the Over in their last seven games. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, has historically leaned toward road teams (55.4% ATS) and Unders (59.1%).

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 46)​

The 49ers (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) have won outright as road dog in both their postseason games thus far, upsetting Dallas 23-17 as 3.5-point dogs and then shocking the Packers 13-10 as 6-point dogs. The Rams (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) beat the Cardinals 34-11 in their playoff opener, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites, then upset the defending champion Bucs 30-27 as 2.5-point road dogs. The 49ers are currently + 450 to win the Super Bowl while the Rams have the second-best odds at + 200.
This line opened with Los Angeles as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Rams on a short number at home. However, all the juice is leaning on the 49ers (+ 3.5 at -115 or -120). This signals liability on San Francisco plus the hook, along with a possible fall down from 3.5 to 3. Playoff divisional dogs are 8-6 ATS (57%) over the past decade. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is 27-18 ATS (60%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS (79%) as a dog. The 49ers are 2-0 against the Rams this season, winning 31-10 in Week 10 and 27-24 in Week 18. The 49ers have a rest advantage, playing on Saturday while the Rams played on Sunday.
We could be looking at a lower-scoring game, as the total has been bet down from 47 to 46 despite a majority of public bettors taking the Over. When the total falls at least a half-point in the playoffs, the Under is 35-30 (54%) over the past decade. Carl Cheffers, the lead red, has trended slightly to road teams (51.2% ATS) and Overs (50.2%) in his career.
 

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Martin Green

Soccer

Mexico to win and under 3.5 goals -125 (one unit)
Mexico to win to nil -114 (half unit)
Highest-scoring half: 2nd half +108 (half unit)

Canada vs. USMNT
Both teams to score -110 (one unit)
USA draw no bet -120 (half unit)
 

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Gianni the Greek

322) Kansas City -1 with 323) San Francisco +9.5…(4%) 6-Point Teaser

322) Kansas City Team Total : Over 30.5 (-140)…(4%) - Pinnacle at -137
4% Best Bet = Over 30.5 (Up to -145) or Over 31.5 (Up to -120)

321) Germaine Pratt (CIN) : Under 7.5 (+100) Combined Tackles…(3%)

321) Joe Mixon (CIN) : Over 3.5 (-160) Pass Receptions…(3%)

324) Cam Akers (LAR) : Under 60.5 (-115) Rushing Yrds…(3%)
 

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ZITI Sports

NHL
Seattle Kraken +170 New York Rangers (1:05 PM)
Boston Bruins vs. Dallas Stars OVER 5.5 -125 (7:05 PM)

COLLEGE HOOPS
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin UNDER 136.5 -110 (1:00 PM)
Indiana State vs Bradley OVER 140.5 -110 (2:00 PM)

NFL
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54.5 -110 (3:05 PM)
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 -110 San Francisco 49ers (6:40 PM)

SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
Belgium - First Division A- Standard Liege vs. KV Mechelen UNDER 3 -128 (12:30 PM)

SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
Switzerland - Challenge League- FC Winterthur vs. SC Kriens OVER 3 -104 (8:15 AM)
Switzerland - Super League- FC Luzern vs. FC Basel OVER 3 -109 (10:30 AM)
Spain - Segunda Division- Las Palmas vs. Real Sociedad II OVER 2.5 +114 (12:00 PM)
 

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Al McMordie

100% CHIEFS/BENGALS TOTALS WINNER! - Over 54.5 -108
100% (10-0) RAMS/49ERS TOTALS WINNER - Over 45.5 -105
 

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NFL

49ers vs. Rams
Howard:
Rams -3; Michel 2 TDs (24/1); Longest TD Under 41.5 Yards
Appelbaum: 49ers +3.5; Garoppolo Under 233.5 Passing Yards; Mitchell Over 70.5 Rushing Yards; Akers Under 59.5 Rushing Yards; (6-pt teaser) KC/CIN Over 48.5 / SF/LAR Under 51.5
Bydlon: Rams -3 (-118)
Czaban: Rams -3.5
Moss: Both Teams Score 20+ Points (+124); Akers Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
Schwartz: 49ers +3.5
Finocchiaro: 49ers +3.5; Under 46.5
Weingarten: Rams ML (-170)
Kannon: 49ers +10.5/Bengals +14 - 7-pt teaser
A. Burke: Under 46.5
White: Under 46
Lundy: 49ers +3.5
Eager: 49ers +3.5; 49ers 1H Team Total Over 9.5
Pritchard: Juszczyk Over 9.5 Receiving Yards
Ulrich: 49ers +3.5
Seidenberg: Rams -3.5
Charchian: Mitchell Anytime TD; Garoppolo Anytime TD; Garoppolo Over 229 Passing Yards; Stafford Under 2.5 Rushing Yards; Akers Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
Chernoff: 49ers +3.5; Over 46
Alexander: 49ers +3.5
Carr: Under 46
Stoll: 1H Over 23
Reynolds: Akers Under 63.5 Rushing Yards; Jefferson Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Pritchard: Beckham Over 51.5 Receiving Yards; Samuel Over 95.5 Rush + Rec Yards
D. Burke: Stafford Over 34.5 Pass Attempts
Palm: Chiefs -0.5/49ers +10.5 - 6.5-pt teaser (2 units)
Levitan: Edwards-Helaire Under 42.5 Rushing Yards; Akers Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
King: 49ers +3.5
Murray: Rams/Chiefs ML Parlay
Zinno: 49ers +3.5

Bengals vs. Chiefs
Moss:
Over 53.5
Brown: Bengals +7.5
Czaban: Chiefs -7
Howard: Under 10.5 1Q; Highest Scoring Half 2H
Moss: 1+ TD in Each Half (-116); Clark Sack (+112); Higgins 80+ Receiving Yards (+120); Ingram Sack (+250)
Schwartz: Chiefs -7
Hill: Mahomes Super Bowl MVP +180
Finocchiaro: Under 54.5
Kannon: Bengals +14/49ers +10.5 - 7-pt teaser
Appelbaum: Burrow Over 287.5 Passing Yards; Bengals +7.5; (6-pt teaser) KC/CIN Over 48.5 / SF/LAR Under 51.5; Burrow Over 286 Passing Yards
White: Chiefs -7
Lundy: Burrow Under 287.5 Passing Yards
Hill: Bengals +7
Eager: Under 54
Seidenberg: Mahomes Over 28.5 Rushing Yards; Mixon Over 27.5 Receiving Yards; Uzomah Over 3.5 Receptions
Chernoff: Over 53.5; Uzomah Under 36.5 Receiving Yards
Carr: McPherson Over 1.5 FG
Stoll: Chiefs -7
Weingarten: Over 54
Reynolds: Bengals +2.5 1Q; Under 54.5; Boyd Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Pritchard: Mixon Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
D. Burke: Mahomes Over 25.5 Completions
Palm: Chiefs -0.5/49ers +10.5 - 6.5-pt teaser (2 units)
Levitan: Burrow Under 39.5 Pass Attempts; Chase Under 88.5 Receiving Yards
Dinsick: Chiefs -7
Murray: Chiefs/Rams ML Parlay; Mahomes Over 29.5 Rushing Yards; Mixon Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Zinno: Under 54.5

Pauly Howard Props
Points Scored in Every Qtr of AFC & NFC Championship Game - Yes (-175)

Gill Alexander MVP Picks
Samuel +1604; Kelce +1805; Hill +2006; Kittle +3000
 

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Pickswise Sports

NFL
2* Chiefs
2* Chiefs/Bengals Over
2* Rams
2* Rams/49ers Under

Chiefs/Bengals Game Props
Travis Kelce (Chiefs) First Touchdown Scored [+600]
Byron Pringle (Chiefs) Anytime Touchdown Scored [+175]
Byron Pringle (Chiefs) Over 3.5 Receptions [+105]

Rams/49ers Game Props
Tyler Higbee (Rams) First Touchdown Scored [+1100]
Odell Beckham (Rams) Anytime Touchdown Scored [+130]
Cam Akers (Rams) Under 60.5 Rushing Yards [-110]

CBB 2* Plays
Ohio State
Providence (ML)
Wisconsin
Wisconsin/Minnesota Under

NHL 3* Best Bet - NY Rangers
 

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