Ben Burns
SUN. AFTERNOON MAIN EVENT! (88% FOOTBALL RUN)
Handicapper: Ben Burns
League: NFL
Competition: Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Time: Sunday, January 23, 03:00 pm ET
Bet Type: Point Spread
Pick: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 (-122)
Analysis: I'm playing on LA. Needless to say, I respect Brady and the Bucs. They're the defending champs. Brady has won more playoff games than Stafford will ever play in. That said, I believe that the Rams are peaking at the right time. Tampa isn't 100% healthy at the moment. The injuries didn't hurt them against Philly but the Rams are on a different level than the Eagles. While Brady won't panic the way that Murray did, the Rams are going to be all over him. The Rams beat the Bucs by 10 back in September. That was at LA. However, they also beat them here at Tampa, last November. Factoring in those results, the Rams are 8-1 ATS the past nine meetings, 5-0 ATS the past five. While the LA defense is dominant, I also really like what I'm seeing from the offense. Stafford got the monkey off his back with a playoff win and the Beckham Jr. got going in the WC game. Kupp has been getting it done all year and now they've added Akers into to the backfield. I'll happily grab the points but I expect the very well-coached Rams to score the upset.
DIV. RD TOTAL OF THE YEAR! (88% RUN) *Sunday
Handicapper: Ben Burns
League: NFL
Competition: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Time: Sunday, January 23, 06:30 pm ET
Bet Type: Over / Under
Pick: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Under 55 (-110) (Play MGM)
Analysis:
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER the total. Both these teams saw their WC games go 'over' the total. Both offenses certainly looked impressive. Many will also recall that the last two meetings between these teams, one this past October and one last January, were also high-scoring. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they've helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Yes, the offenses are potent. However, let's not forget that the Bills also have the best defense in football. They allow the fewest number of points per game and they also allow the fewest yards per game and per play. In terms of points allowed per game, the Chiefs are a top #10 defense. They're a different team now than they were when they faced the Bills last season, or even earlier this season. The gameplan wasn't working early on so Reid and co. changed things up. They started taking what the opposing defense gave them and having much longer scoring drives. It should also be mentioned that the Chiefs have been particularly stingy at home. Since the Bills beat them here in October, the Chiefs have played seven home games. They allowed 21, 10, 9, 9, 9, 7 and 17 points. That's an average of less than 12 ppg allowed, over the past seven games here. While many will be expecting a shootout, I say that the defense/s rises to the occasion and that the final combined score stays below the generously high total.
$119K SWEET SPOT! (10*) > 11-2 NBA RUN
Handicapper: Ben Burns
League: NBA
Competition: Detroit Pistons vs Denver Nuggets
Time: Sunday, January 23, 08:10 pm ET
Bet Type: Point Spread
Pick: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
Analysis:
I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets are off a loss. After this game, they've got a long road trip. It starts at Detroit, with a rematch against the Pistons. That makes taking care of business on their home floor absolutely mandatory. Catching the Pistons at the end of a road trip, I expect the motivated Nuggets to deliver a blowout. The Nuggets were laying -11.5 when they hosted the Pistons last year. They jumped out to a 20-point lead by halftime and cruised to a 15-point win. Tonight, off the Memphis loss, I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas. The Pistons are 4-20 away from Detroit and get outscored by a 115-101 avg score. Host teams hit 48.7% of their field goals against Detroit; terrible defense. This remains one of the tougher venues in the league. Expect a one-sided affair.
