Teddy Covers
Bills -5
E% Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#316)
Even after losing ATS to the Ravens last week, Cincinnati has an enormous betting bandwagon, a true ‘public’ team here in the postseason. It’s easy to understand why – the Bengals have been a pointspread machine; the single best ATS squad in the NFL since the middle of last season. Cinci and their backers are riding a 20-4-1 ATS Run in their last 25 games; the type of extended pointspread run that generates ample public support moving forward.
But Cincinnati has a significant problem for this ballgame. First and foremost, the Bengals have suffered through a bevy of injuries on the offensive line. This team played with the same five starting linemen for an extended stretch this season; 15 straight games. Then tackle La’el Collins went on IR after Week 16. Alex Capps hurt his ankle in Week 17 and aggravated it last week. Tackle Jonah Williams dislocated his kneecap against Baltimore last week. A line featuring backups Jackson Carman (only four regular season snaps this year), Max Scharping and Hakeem Adeniji is a MAJOR drop-off from where they’ve been.
Remember, Joe Burrow took 13 sacks in the first two weeks of the season as Cinci started 0-2 SU/ATS, before the OL started to gell. In Cinci’s final 14 regular season games, Burrow took more than three sacks only once, a blowout loss at Cleveland on Halloween Night. Last week, against Baltimore, Burrow was under pressure throughout behind that shattered offensive line – no downfield passing whatsoever (his longest completion went for 19 yards). Buffalo is every bit as stout on the defensive line, if not more so. It’s not like Cinci has a solid running game – if Burrow doesn’t have time to throw, this offense doesn’t work. I don’t expect Burrow to have much time to throw in this matchup.
The Bills just ‘survived and advanced’ in a game where they didn’t play well on either side of the football; a natural instance for a team that has been through an emotional roller coaster down the stretch of the regular season. I have no hesitation backing a ‘A’ level team following a shoddy showing – they’re better than what we just saw. Every sharp dollar bet early in the week on this game has come for the home favorite -- for good reason! Big Ticket: Take the Bills.
Line Parameter: 5% at -5.5 or lower, 4% at -6.5 or lower, 3% if this line goes all the way up to -7
D% Take Dallas (#317)
When Dak Prescott got hurt in Week 1, a 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay, a major sportsbook decided to pay out Cowboys Under bettors in the season wins marketplace. That ended up being a poor decision. Dallas didn’t fall apart when Prescott got hurt. In fact, they went 4-1 SU/ATS with Cooper Rush behind center, including wins and covers against a pair of winners on Wild Card weekend, the Giants and Bengals.
Why didn’t Dallas fall apart early? Three reasons. First and foremost, this is a Top quartile defense – just like San Fran – allowing only 5.1 yards per play for the season. Dan Quinn has worked magic here, just like he did when he turned the Seahawks defense into a Super Bowl caliber unit when he worded under Pete Carroll. Note the Cowboys ability to create turnovers in bunches, week after week. Second, their offensive line has been blowing open holes for the running backs; creating a balanced attack. That’s key against the 49ers – you’re not going to beat San Francisco without the ability to run AND throw effectively.
Third and perhaps most importantly, this Dallas team has character. They’re not soft; they’ve responded well to adversity all season, and they’re hungry for postseason success after more than two decades of failures. Mike McCarthy has pushed all the right buttons here, and this team is ‘live’ to make a DEEP postseason run.
San Francisco has been feeding on the weak. Based on my power rating numbers for every team they faced on the week that they faced them, Dallas this week is going to be the toughest foe they’ve faced since losing at home to Kansas City by three touchdowns back in October. This is a step up in defensive class for rookie third string QB Brock Purdy, who has played extremely well, but will be hard pressed to lead his team to victory by margin on Sunday. Too many points – live dog here! Take the Cowboys
Line Parameter: 4% at +3.5 or higher, 3% at +3 or lower
