Sunday 9/3/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Del Mar - Race #5 - Post: 4:05pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 91 Del Mar Juvenile Turf S.

Rating: 3

#13 ENCUMBERED (ML=9/2)
#3 BOMBARDEO (ML=12/1)
#8 MY BOY JACK (ML=8/1)
#6 RESPECT THE HUSTLE (ML=15/1)


ENCUMBERED - On July 30th this colt shipped in to take the top prize and looks good right back. This animal has recorded the best recent turf Equibase speed fig at the distance and surface. This horse may have too much power on the turf for the rest of the field. Moving down the stretch, he could put these away. BOMBARDEO - This mount could be tough today, especially since Pedroza rode in the last race and now should be better acquainted with this one. This jock/handler duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +190. This colt is utmost in earnings per race. Check out this thoroughbred in the paddock. The recent fig of 91 is the top last race speed rating in the field. MY BOY JACK - This colt has the top turf figure in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance. RESPECT THE HUSTLE - Rode this horse on Aug 12th and Baze is right back in the irons this race. Colt shipped to this track and won; now goes for a double. Came home in quick time last race out. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 TAKE THE ONE O ONE (ML=5/1), #9 LINBURGH'S KITTEN (ML=6/1), #4 BIG BUZZ (ML=6/1),

TAKE THE ONE O ONE - He's in all probability going to get roasted up front. LINBURGH'S KITTEN - There's speed, early zip, and more speed in this race. Doesn't look too good for this horse. BIG BUZZ - The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BOMBARDEO - This is a great longshot angle. Play the top-rated TrackMaster power-rated horse if he has a morning line of at least 5-1.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #13 ENCUMBERED to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

_____
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ferndale

Ferndale - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) $0.20 GOLD RUSH PICK 6 (Races 3-8)


Allowance • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 3:12P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $10,000 IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
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Horse
Morn
Line

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Race Type: Lone Front-runner. THE GREY MOUSSE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE GREY MOUSSE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HUB CAP: Horse is highest ranke d on Good Speed and Good Class. GRAPE JUICE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. TOUGH RUNNER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SINGAPORE TUNE: Horse had a bullet workout within the la st seven days.
3
THE GREY MOUSSE
5/1

7/2
5
HUB CAP
5/2

6/1
4
GRAPE JUICE
3/1

6/1
2
TOUGH RUNNER
4/1

9/1
1
SINGAPORE TUNE
2/1

10/1
 

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The Walker Group at Lethbridge

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4050 Class Rating: 63

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 THISISMYSTORY 7/5

# 4 JONATHAN'S STAR 6/1

# 6 SECRET WAY 2/1

THISISMYSTORY is my choice. He has been running soundly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most competitive in this group of horses in this race. Has ran well in dirt sprint races. Looks competitive against this group and ought to be one of the early speedsters. JONATHAN'S STAR - Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the lead recently. Earned a sound Equibase speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. SECRET WAY - Seems to have a strong class edge based on the recent company kept. David has this gelding travelling well and is a very good selection based on the decent Speed Figures posted in sprint races lately.
 

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Rick Needham at Saratoga

NEW YORK BONUS
RACE #10 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:47 PM EASTERN POST
The Prioress Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE

#2 SISTER KAN
#1 STUDENT BODY
#4 NONNA MELA
#7 ROYAL INHERITANCE

The Prioress was named after the first American-bred and owned thoroughbred to win in England. A daughter of Sovereign, out of the Glencoe mare Reel, Prioress was descended from the Darley Arabian line and was foaled in South Carolina in 1853. The bay filly was purchased and taken to England in 1856 by Richard Ten Broeck; there she won the Great Yorkshire Stakes and the Cesare Witch Handicap in 1858, taking the latter in a runoff after finishing in a triple dead heat. First run at Jamaica in 1948, the Prioress moved to Aqueduct Racetrack in 1959, and then to Saratoga in 1987. Here in the 70th running of this stakes test, #2 SISTER KAN, a 12-1 BOMB, has hit the board in each of her last five outings, winning four times, including back-to-back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last three starts. #1 STUDENT BODY, a 6-1 shot, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and comes off an impressive 11-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start, which the 2nd win in her 3 race career to date.

__________________
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:30pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: 4

#8 STOP THE PARADE (ML=6/1)
#5 CANMORE (ML=7/2)


STOP THE PARADE - Faced tougher in the last race at Woodbine. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders. CANMORE - This gelding is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on Aug 11th, finishing second. Horses out of the barn of De Paulo have been great on the turf. I'd expect a good performance. The addition of Lasix might make this animal wake up right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FLY DIRECT (ML=5/2), #6 ROBUSTIOUS (ML=3/1), #9 LOVE OF MINE (ML=8/1),

FLY DIRECT - If he goes off close to the morning line of 5/2, I'll have to pass. ROBUSTIOUS - Hard to bet on at 3/1 odds after the most recent showings. LOVE OF MINE - If he goes off near the morning line odds of 8/1, I'll have to pass.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #8 STOP THE PARADE on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 

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National League

Braves @ Cubs
Fried is making first MLB start; he’s allowed four runs in 6.2 IP in four relief stints this season. Fried was 2-11, 5.92 in 19 AA starts this year- that not good.

Montgomery is 3-0, 0.95 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Cubs are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3-1

Atlanta lost five of last seven games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Cubs won seven of last eight games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.

Reds @ Pirates
Romano is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts (under 6-5). Reds are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6-1

Williams is 0-3, 5.73 in his last four starts; under is 11-2 in his last 13. Pirates are 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-3

Cincinnati won three of last five games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Pirates are 4-8 in last 12 games; five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

Phillies @ Marlins
Thompson is 1-1, 1-1, 7.20 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Phillies lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Urena is 3-1, 4.26 in his last five starts; under is 3-0-3 in his last six home starts. Miami is 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-3

Phillies are 6-6 in last 12 games; under is 4-2 in their last six. Marlins lost five of their last six games; under is 4-3 in their last seven games.

Nationals @ Brewers
Jackson is 3-1, 2.52 in his last four starts (under 6-2). Washington is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-2

Suter is 0-1, 8.16 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Milwaukee is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-1

Washington won five of its last seven games; six of their last nine games went over. Milwaukee won seven of their last nine home games; 10 of their last 13 games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Godley is 1-3, 5.32 in his last four starts; under is 8-4-2 in his last 14. Arizona is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

Marquez is 2-0, 4.50 in his last three starts; under is 7-0-1 in his last eight. He is 0-1, 3.42 in four starts vs Arizona this season. Colorado won his last nine home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-3

Arizona won 11 of last 12 games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Colorado lost six of last seven home games; five of their last six games stayed under.

Dodgers @ Padres
Wood is 3-0, 3.09 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Dodgers won his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-2

Chacin is 0-3, 4.56 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. He is 1-0, 1.17 in his last three starts against the Dodgers. Padres are 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-14-4

Dodgers seven of their last eight games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. San Diego is 13-7 in its last 20 home games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11.

Cardinals @ Giants
Weaver is 3-0, 1.89 in his last three starts (over 2-2). St Louis won both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1

Bumgarner is 2-1, 2.77 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Giants are 2-4 inches home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-3

Cardinals lost five of last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six. Giants lost five of their last seven games; nine of their last 11 games overall stayed under.

American League

Indians @ Tigers

Tomlin is 4-0, 2.43 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Cleveland is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-4

Bell is making his first MLB start; he is 0-1, 5.48 in 19 MLB relief stints this year (42.2 IP). He was 2-4, 3.41 in seven AAA starts this year.

Indians won their last ten games- four of their last seven games went over. Detroit lost eight of last ten home games; over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 home games.

Boston @ New York
Sale is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-2, 2.43 in four starts vs NY this season. Red Sox are 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-8

Severino is 2-1, 2.75 in his last three starts; his last seven starts went over. He is 1-1, 5.40 in three starts vs Boston this Year. New York is 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9-3

Red Sox won six of last nine road games; seven of their last eight games stayed under. New York lost four of its last six games; under is 12-4 in their last 16 home games.

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Anderson allowed one run in 5.2 IP (85 PT) in his first Toronto start, a 3-0 home loss to Boston, Toronto’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

Tillman is 0-2, 13.24 in his last four starts; over is 8-5 in his last 13 starts. Baltimore is 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-11-3

Toronto lost 10 of last 14 games; under is 7-3 in their last ten. Orioles won nine of last 12 games; over is 4-3 in their last seven home games.

Angels @ Rangers
Heaney is 1-0, 5.63 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Angels lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Perez is 5-0, 2.91 in his last five starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven home starts. Texas is 7-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11-3

Angels won five of last seven games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Texas lost five of last eight games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Royals @ Twins
Kennedy is 0-4, 10.60 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Royals are 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-14-3

Santana is 2-0, 3.66 in his last three starts; under is 5-3-2 in his last ten. Minnesota is 7-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-6

Royals lost seven of last nine games (over 6-2-1). Minnesota won five of its last six games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Rays @ White Sox
Andriese is making his first start since June 10; he is 3-0, 4.35 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Rays are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-2

Giolito is 1-1, 2.77 in two starts this year (under 2-0). White Sox split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Rays won six of last nine games; under is 8-5-1 in their last 14 road games. Chicago lost five of last seven games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

A’s @ Mariners
Gossett is 1-2, 5.64 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. A’s are 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8

Albers is 2-1, 7.80 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Seattle won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

A’s lost nine of last 11 road games; five of their last seven games went over. Seattle lost five of its last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six.

Interleague

Mets @ Astros
Flexen is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Mets are 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4

Fiers is 1-5, 7.85 in his last seven starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. Houston is 7-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12-3

Mets are 5-15 in last 20 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Astros won their last three games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games in Houston.

______________________________

Record with this pitcher starting:
Atl-Chi: Fried 0-0; Montgomery 5-5
Cin-Pitt: Romano 5-6; Williams 9-12
Phil-Mia: Thompson 1-2; Urena 15-7
Wsh-Mil: Jackson 5-3; Suter 4-5
Az-Colo: Godley 12-8; Marquez 15-8
LA-SD: Wood 16-4; Chacin 13-14 (0-5 last 5)
StL-SF: Weaver 3-1; Bumgarner 3-10

American League
Clev-Det: Tomlin 9-12; Bell 0-0
Tor-Balt: Anderson 0-1 (3-3); Tillman 6-11
Bos-NY: Sale 19-8; Severino 15-11
LA-Tex: Heaney 1-2; Perez 12-14 (5-0 last 5)
KC-MIn: Kennedy 12-13; Santana 16-11
TB-Chi: Andriese 6-6; Giolito 1-1
A’s-Sea: Gossett 4-8; Albers 2-1

Interleague
NY-Hst: Flexen 4-3; Fiers 14-12

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:

National League
Atl-Chi: Fried 0-0; Montgomery 2-10
Cin-Pitt: Romano 4-11; Williams 7-21
Phil-Mia: Thompson 1-3; Urena 4-22
Wsh-Mil: Jackson 4-8; Suter 1-9
Az-Colo: Godley 4-20; Marquez 6-23
LA-SD: Wood 3-20; Chacin 11-27
StL-SF: Weaver 1-4; Bumgarner 3-13

American League
Clev-Det: Tomlin 6-21; Bell 0-0
Tor-Balt: Anderson 4-7; Tillman 7-17
Bos-NY: Sale 2-27; Severino 6-27
LA-Tex: Heaney 0-3; Perez 11-26
KC-MIn: Kennedy 7-25; Santana 5-27
TB-Chi: Andriese 7-12; Giolito 0-2
A’s-Sea: Gossett 1-12; Albers 2-3

Interleague
NY-Hst: Flexen 4-7; Fiers 7-26

_________________________

Umpires
Atl-Chi: Home team won 10 of last 12 Carlson games.
Cin-Pitt: Six of last nine Tumpane games went over.
Phil-Mia: Home team won 17 of last 19 Barksdale games.
Wsh-Mil: Underdogs are 5-3 in last eight Carapazza games.
Az-Colo: Last three Barry games went over the total.
LA-SD: Last six Segal games stayed under the total.
StL-SF: Underdogs won last three Everett games.

American League
Clev-Det: Under is 3-1-1 in last five Meals games.
Tor-Balt: Five of last six Randazzo games went over.
Bos-NY: Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Holbrook games.
LA-Tex: Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Estabrook games.
KC-MIn: Home side won 11 of last 12 Foster games.
TB-Chi: Four of last five Eddings games stayed under.
A’s-Sea: Three of last four Vanover games went over.

Interleague
NY-Hst: Seven of last eight Scheurwater games stayed under.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 78-55 AL, favorites +$303
AL @ NL– 71-65 NL, favorites +$164
Total: 143-126 AL, favorites +$467

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 66-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-59-7
Total: Over 137-125-10

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/2/17
Ariz 27-26-16……37-21–11……..64-47
Atl 25-34-9……23-35-7………..48-69
Cubs 30-30-7…….34-21-13………64-51
Reds 22-37-8……..26-36–7……….48-73
Colo 34-27-6…….35-28-4………..69-55
LA 31-23-13…….41-20-7……….72-43
Miami 28-32-8…….35-23-9………63-55
Milw 33-24-9…….34-27-9……….66-51
Mets 31-33-4……..25-36-6……….56-69
Philly 16-40-14……26-31-8……….42-71
Pitt 30-32-6…….26-29-12………57-61
St. Louis 28-30-8……35-24-9…………63-54
SD 20-39-8……..33-27–9……….53-66
SF 14-45-9……..28-30-11……….42-75
Wash 39-22-7……32-27-8………….71-49

Orioles 27-33-5……..30-33-7………57-66
Boston 30-31-10………30-33-2…….60-64
White Sox 21-37-10………25-37–4…….46-73
Cleveland 39-23-8……..31-24-8………70-47
Detroit 26-34-9…….27-31-9……..53-65
Astros 32-25-9……..42-24-5……..74-49
KC 25-31-9……..27-28-12…….52-59
Angels 25-33-8………29-27-13……..54-60
Twins 37-19-10………31-32-8…….67-50
NYY 28-36-6……….35-27-4…..…63-63
A’s 25-35-7……..28-30-11……..53-65
Seattle 26-35-9……..35-23-9………61-58
TB 35-25-10……..36-21-8……..71-46
Texas 32-25-11……..34-24-8……..66-49
Toronto 26-36-5……..27-31-10……..53-67

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/2/17)
Ariz 22-67……..25-67………..47
Atl 15-67……….18-66……….33
Cubs 18-67……..25-68………..43
Reds 25-67……..26-69………51
Colo 17-67……..24-67..……..41
LA 20-67……..24-67..……..44
Miami 29-68……..25-67………54
Milw 22-66……27-71…..…..49
Mets 30-68……..22-67……….52
Philly 16-70……..20-66……….36
Pitt 20-68……..21-68……….41
StL 14-67……..21-67………..35
SD 23-67……….21-68……….44
SF 15-69……….20-69……….35
Wash 25-68……..26-67……….51

Orioles 15-66……..22-71……….37
Boston 20-71……..14-65……….34
White Sox 21-68……17-66………..38
Clev 19-70……..21-65……….40
Detroit 16-68…….26-67………42
Astros 20-67……..27-69………47
KC 16-66……..13-69……….29
Angels 24-68……..20-70……….44
Twins 15-64……..18-70……….33
NYY 16-69……..18-66……….34
A’s 16-67……..26-69………42
Seattle 21-70…….22-68………43
TB 21-70……..23-67……….44
Texas 26-69……..29-66………55
Toronto 22-67……..19-71………41
 

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