Sunday 9/20/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, September 20

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HOUSTON (0 - 1) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 85-49 ATS (+31.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 167-128 ATS (+26.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 0) at CHICAGO (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (1 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 0-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-142 ATS (-53.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (1 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (0 - 1) at GREEN BAY (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 21

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NY JETS (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/21/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, September 20

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing NY Giants
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CHICAGO
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CAROLINA
Houston is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
San Diego is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Cincinnati is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games at home
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CLEVELAND
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Tennessee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. JACKSONVILLE
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games

4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7)

Repeat after me: Week 1 is only one week.

The Jets looked dominant against a crummy Browns team, and the Colts drew the tough assignment of playing in Buffalo last Sunday. This same game played just about at any point last season would carry a line in the vicinity of 13-14 points. Two factors are keeping this spread as tight as it is – the way each team played last week, and NY money on the Jets.

Suggestion here is to hang tight and wait to see if heavier money either way moves the line either way just before kickoff.


Total to watch

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (40.5)

Bill O’Brien has the unenviable task of trying to win NFL games without a top-level quarterback, and even with a good defense that’s like spending all week pushing a boulder up a hill only to see it come crashing down in 15 minutes on Sunday afternoon.

Now O’Brien says he won’t even reveal which former Patriot backup (Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallet) will start in Carolina.

Until Houston can get its offense untracked, Texan bettors can expect to see low totals all season – even against a weak schedule and in a soft AFC South.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapping Week 2

Transitioning from Week 1 to Week 2 in the NFL

As usual, the NFL opening weekend was jam packed with storylines, highlight performances, and major surprises.

Defending champion New England & Tom Brady dominated Pittsburgh on opening night, Bills’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor and Titans’ rookie QB Marcus Mariota were sensational in upset wins, while St. Louis and San Francisco also pulled out improbable victories. Most experts had written off the 49ers’ chances after an offseason of transition. Speaking of being written off, how about that amazing 4th quarter comeback by the Cowboys on Sunday night against New York?

It was certainly an exciting start to the season. Of course, for our purposes, as we look ahead as bettors, we are most interested in how the Week 1 results can be used to turn into Week 2 profits. That’s where this article comes in, as we have analyzed numerous Week 1 to Week 2 transitional situations in the NFL to uncover some highly profitable systems to utilize in the coming weekend.

Before getting into the top Week 2 systems and plays however, let’s theorize as to why some of this logic might be successful. First off, the NFL is a huge momentum league, and with one game every week, it gives a team a lot of time to either stew on a loss or bask in a victory. During this time, the losing teams may be starting to doubt themselves, or the winning teams may be thinking too highly of their own games. The betting public and media glorifies this type of thinking, and expects that what they just saw in Week 1 is the new standard.

Bookmakers are thus placed in a precarious position of having to balance what just happened with what could/should happen in the follow-up week.

In our opinion, these systems come as a result of Bookmakers not wanting to over-adjust. They have a tendency to do this in college football and it opens up a number of unwarranted early season value plays.

In the pro’s, with all the money that is wagered each week, they realize that they can’t radically adjust their lines in such a short window simply because of one game result. They are forced to wait out the first few weeks of any given season in hopes that everything balances out.

Think of this explanation as you read through each system, and trust in the ones that you think make the most sense.

In all there are 22 different angles, each with a winning percentage of at least 60%.

1) Week 2 teams playing as favorites or underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 28-6 SU & 24-7-3 ATS (77.4%) since '03 (+16.3 units, R.O.I.: 52.5%, Rating: 8*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, INDIANAPOLIS, GREEN BAY, & CHICAGO (note: SD & CIN cancel each other out)

Analysis: Over the last two seasons, this system is a solid 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS with five of six teams winning and covering their respective pointspread handily a year ago. It seems that these 30-point teams may have overachieved in Week 1 and are naturally due for a letdown, or an overinflated line in Week 2.

2) Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season opening game and thus have extra rest are 11-9 SU & 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) in Week 2 since '05 (+12.7 units, R.O.I.: 66.8%, Rating: 7*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO

Analysis: Routine, Routine, Routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Seattle and Tampa Bay made this system a perfect 2-0 ATS in 2013, and San Diego (W) & the Jets (L, ATS Push) were 1-0-1 ATS a year ago. San Francisco, facing Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, hosting New England, will provide two more opportunities to cash in for 2015.

3) Teams that lost their opening game on the road bounce back at a 28-15 SU & 30-12-1 ATS (71.4%) rate when playing at home in Week 2 over the L5 seasons. (+16.8 units, R.O.I.: 40%, Rating: 7*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NEW ORLEANS, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS, PHILADELPHIA, & INDIANAPOLIS

Analysis: This system typically produces a lot of teams qualifying each season, and going into last season, teams in this scenario were a sterling 14-2-1 ATS in the prior two years!!! However, last year’s six teams split their games both SU & ATS, a possible cooling of the system. Still, home openers can provide much needed incentive to turn some negative momentum around. This is a classic example of how oddsmakers trap bettors into thinking Week 1’s results are the new norm.

4) Teams that lost on the pointspread by 15 or more points in Week 1 divisional games are 8-4 SU & 10-1-1 ATS (90.9%) in Week 2 since '07 (+8.9 units, R.O.I.: 80.9%, Rating: 7*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: Second week pointspread adjustments tend to go against teams that were blown out by divisional opponents in Week 1, in most cases over-adjustments. In the one qualifying game on this system in 2014, New England crushed Minnesota to even its season record at 1-1. This was an important win for the Patriots, who went on to win the Super Bowl.

5) Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 13-7 SU & 15-5 ATS (75%) in Week 2 since '04 (+9.5 units, R.O.I.: 47.5%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: The motivation of being an underdog to a divisional opponent provides the needed incentive for these Week 2 dogs to pull the upset. This has been an outstanding money line system over the years as well, hitting at 65% on outright winners, so don’t ignore that betting option.

6) Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 27-10 SU & 25-11-1 ATS (69.4%) since '03 (+13 units, R.O.I.: 35.1%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON DALLAS

Analysis: Divisional games typically require greater focus and intensity, and these teams are well prepared the second time around. Miami was the only qualifier last season and lost, so keep that in mind, although a single loss certainly isn’t enough to suggest a turn on this system. There were only three divisional tilts in Week 1 this season.

7) Week 2 teams that went under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 15-3 OVER (83.3%) the total since '08 (+11.7 units, R.O.I.: 65%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in SF-PIT, DET-MIN, STL-WAS, MIA-JAC

Analysis: These teams fully underachieved offensively in Week 1, creating a situation where oddsmakers adjust their total downward erroneously. Both games in this system a year ago easily surpassed the posted total.

8) Teams that beat their Week 1 pointspread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 14-3-1 UNDER (82.4%) the total in Week 2 since '02 (+10.7 units, R.O.I.: 62.9%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: UNDER in HOU-CAR, TEN-CLE

Analysis: These Week 1 overachievers lit it up against unfamiliar opponents. In Week 2, they typically come back down to earth offensively against higher totals.

9) Teams that lost as road favorites in week have bounced back with a record of 9-4 SU & 11-2 ATS (84.6%) in Week 2 over the L4 seasons (+8.8 units, R.O.I.: 67.6%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, & SEATTLE

Analysis: Week 1 road favorites are obviously highly regarded teams. They have proven good enough to be able to bounce back from a loss in that game, in most cases avoiding a 0-2 start. Last year, the two qualifiers split, with the Patriots posting a resounding 30-7 win over Minnesota, and the Saints falling to 0-2 after losing at Cleveland.

10) Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 20-9-1 UNDER (69.0%) the total in Week 2 since '05 (+10.1 units, R.O.I.: 34.8%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: UNDER in STL-WAS, ATL-NYG, & DAL-PHI

Analysis: In all honesty, this one is tough to explain…but its success is tough to argue. A perfect 4-0 record in 2014 bounced this system up seven spots in our ranking for 2015.

11) Of the last 19 teams that were upset in Week 1 divisional games, 14 have gone OVER (14-5, 73.6%) the total in Week 2 (+7.5 units, R.O.I.: 39.5%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in SEA-GB

Analysis: In all likelihood, these teams that were upset in Week 1 underperformed, especially offensively, and come back flying in Week 2. Last year, this system was just 1-3, with the losing teams mustering just 10.0 PPG, so beware of a shift.

12) Teams that lost close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 14-5 OVER (73.6%) the total in Week 2 since '08 (+8.5 units, R.O.I.: 44.7%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in ATL-NYG, DAL-PHI, & SEA-GB

Analysis: As it has turned out lately, teams losing heartbreakers in Week 1 have either slipped defensively in Week 2 or gained an increased focus offensively. Last year’s three games on this system all won.

13) Teams facing opponents that allowed 38 or more points in Week 1 are 15-7 SU & 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) coming back in Week 2 since '02 (+8.4 units, R.O.I.: 38.2%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NEW ORLEANS

Analysis: Playing against teams that came up bad defensively in Week 1 is a good idea, as in many cases, the ground has already been laid for these being bet against teams for the season.

14) Week 1 favorites of 6-points or more that lost their game have bounced back with a record of 10-3 SU & ATS (76.9%) in Week 2 since '02 (+6.7 units, R.O.I.: 51.5%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: Teams favored by 6-points or more in Week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. In 2014, the Bears qualified for this system after losing at home in Week 1 and responded with a big upset win at San Francisco. All three of the bigger favorites of 2015 Week 1 were victorious.

15) Teams that lost as road favorites have gone 10-3 OVER (76.9%) the total in Week 2 over the L4 seasons (+6.7 units, R.O.I.: 51.5%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in DET-MIN, DAL-PHI, SEA-GB, & NYJ-IND

Analysis: Only teams with potent offenses are granted roles as road favorites this early in the season, and after an upset loss in Week 1, these teams typically respond with big offensive performances.

16) Week 1 underdogs of 7-points or more that won ATS in their game are 7-7 SU & 8-3-3 ATS (72.7%) in Week 2 since '06 (+4.7 units, R.O.I.: 42.7%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NY GIANTS

Analysis: Perhaps these teams are better than oddsmakers and other so-called experts realize. Last year, the Colts qualified for this system but were in the second of back-to-back difficult games in the schedule and lost at home to Philadelphia on Monday Night.

17) Teams that scored 35 points or more in Week 1 are 16-9-1 OVER (64%) the total in Week 2 since '07 (+6.1 units, R.O.I.: 24.4%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in TEN-CLE

Analysis: Oddsmakers simply can’t put totals high enough on these teams as they get on an early season roll offensively. Bear in mind that two of the three games that qualified for this system in 2014 lost so perhaps oddsmakers are reacting quickly to the high scoring potential.

18) Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 15-9 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) since '06 (+5.2 units, R.O.I.: 23.6%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON GREEN BAY

Analysis: Momentum created by a big divisional win in Week 1 seems to carryover well into Week 2.

19) Week 2 home teams that pulled upsets as road underdogs in Week 1 are 15-8 SU & 13-8-2 ATS (61.9%) since '06 (+4.2 units, R.O.I.: 20%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: Week 1 road upsets have proven to be a big momentum builder for teams heading into Week 2. Most often these teams are headed for 2-0. Three of the record high five qualifying teams for 2014 won their games. Tennessee was the only road underdog winner in Week 1 but plays another road game this week at Cleveland.

20) Teams that played as road favorites in Week 1 have gone 29-18-1 OVER (61.7%) the total in Week 2 since '06 (+9.2 units, R.O.I.: 19.5%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in DEN-KC, HOU-CAR, DET-MIN, SD-CIN, MIA-JAC, DAL-PHI, SEA-GB, & NYJ-IND

Analysis: Again, Week 1 road favorites are typically the best offensive teams in football, OVER’s a natural tendency. This system is off a 2-1 performance in 2014.

21) Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 14-9-1 OVER (60.8%) the total since '06 (+4.1 units, R.O.I.: 17.8%, Rating: 3*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in GB-SEA

Analysis: These teams come into Week 2 games with a lot of momentum based on their big divisional win, and that typically results in another strong offensive effort. After a 0-2 record a year ago however, this system is in danger of falling off our 60%+ list.

22) Teams that were upset in Week 1 divisional games bounce back at a 18-10 SU & 17-11 ATS (60.7%) rate in Week 2 since '02 (+4.9 units, R.O.I.: 17.5%, Rating: 3*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON SEATTLE

Analysis: Urgency. Teams upset by divisional foes in Week 1 naturally come into Week 2 with a greater sense of urgency. Two of four teams qualifying won a year ago, but this system is also on the verge of elimination on our list.

Good luck with your Week 2 NFL plays!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 2 line moves

Following a 28-21 win against the Steelers in Week 1, the Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 where they have gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

With Week 1 in the books, we now turn our attention to Week 2. The 2015 NFL season curtain raiser gave us many talking points, but bettors will be able to get more of a feel where certain teams stand and see which teams are for real and which teams were nothing more than a flash in the pan.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns - Open: -2.5, Move: +1

It was a fantastic debut from rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Titans who crushed fellow rookie Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42-14 and covered the spread by a whopping 31 points in Week 1. Now, Mariota and the Titans travel to Cleveland where Titans money has flipped this line from one side of a Pick to the other.

"Despite the line flipping from Titans +2.5 on Monday all the way to them being a 1-point favorite, the action on the Titans has not slowed," Sloan tells Covers. "Bets are still 7-1 on Tennessee, and the money action is 4-1 on them as well. Some of the sharps were lucky enough to grab Tennessee at 2 and 2.5, so the value bets seem to be gone at this point. We would expect this line to possibly move another half point to 1.5, but not much more than that."


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -10.5, Move: -10

Speaking of Winston, it wasn't the opener that he and the Bucs envisioned, but surely there's nowhere to go but up from the shellacking in Week 1. Considering the Saints closed out 2014 with an 0-5 record both straight up and against the spread in their last five home games, perhaps New Orleans is the place where Winston and the Bucs can right the ship.

"We opened this matchup Saints -10.5, moving Saints -10 on Monday with 57 percent of the action coming in on the Saints to cover," Stewart tells Covers. "I can see us moving to Saints -9.5 come the weekend as I think the sharps will back the Bucs to cover, with the poor defense of the Saints allowing Tampa to put points on the board."


Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

In what could be a forecast of a playoff matchup come January, the Packers host the Seahawks in one of the marquee matchups on the Week 2 docket. The Seahawks have traditionally not fared well in their visits to Wisconsin and the betting patterns on this game reflect that with a bit of faith in the home team.

"We don’t anticipate this line from moving off of GB -3.5," Sloan says. "The house is going to need Seattle plus the 3.5 for our lunch money come Sunday, but we’re fine with that. Currently, the bets are at 2-1 on GB, and the money is at 4-1, however the sharps have yet to pile in to show us who they like. With a steady line, there isn’t much need for them to act in advance."


New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Open: +1.5, Move: Pick, Move: +1.5

Thanks to a 27-14 win over the Indianapolis Colts as 1-point home dogs, Rex Ryan's Bills were a big Week1 highlight, but they'll face a stern test from a familiar foe in the New England Patriots.

The Pats have owned the Bills in upstate New York, posting a record of 9-2 ATS in the previous 11 meetings in Buffalo and, according to Stewart, bettors like the majority of action is on the Pats to keep that trend alive Sunday.

"This is a matchup I really like Belichick and the Patriots offense vs Ryan and the Bills defense," Stewart says. "We opened the Patriots as 1.5-point faves on the road and getting as low as a pick’em before moving back up to the Patriots -1.5 with 78 percent of the action to cover. I like the bills in this spot at home and I think the sharps will back the Bills as we get closer to game time."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-0) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -6.5, Total: 44

The Steelers look to avoid an 0-2 hole to start the season on Sunday afternoon when they host the 49ers for the first time since 2007.

San Francisco RB Carlos Hyde stole the show on Monday Night Football with a league-best 168 rushing yards, and despite a painfully ugly first half of football versus Minnesota, the black and red clad Niners didn’t seem all that different from the team that went to three straight NFC Title games. The defense, led by LB NaVorro Bowman, looked fast and violent, QB Colin Kaepernick was quick and decisive, and Hyde looked like he was the All-Pro instead of the returning Adrian Peterson, leading his team to a 20-3 victory.

Pittsburgh will again be without RB Le’Veon Bell, serving the final game of his suspension, which means the DeAngelo Williams revival tour will get another week in the spotlight. Williams racked up 127 yards on the ground in the 28-21 loss to New England, providing this matchup of the surprising leading rushers in each conference. These two storied franchises haven’t met since 2011 and haven’t played in the Steel City since a 37-16 Steelers win in 2007. The teams have alternated victories in the four meetings since 1999, all four of those decided by at least 16 points. The losing team has scored less than 20 points in all 13 meetings since 1969.

In the 2011 matchup, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger had one of the worst games of his career, throwing three picks with zero touchdowns, marking the only game since 2009 where he had 0 TD and 3 INT. The Steelers are 1-8 SU when Roethlisberger throws 3+ interceptions and San Francisco led the NFL with 23 picks last season. The Niners are 4-2 ATS versus the Steelers since 1992, including 2-1 ATS in Pittsburgh, while Kaepernick is 16-8 ATS in his career on the road.

Kaepernick’s numbers last Monday night didn't blow anybody away at 17-of-26 for 165 yards, but his 41 rushing yards and overall control of the offensive unit looked a lot more like the budding superstar from 2013 than last year’s shell of a player. CB Tramaine Brock had the lone 49ers takeaway, a fourth quarter interception of Teddy Bridgewater, and the rest of the defense flew around like the elite unit they used to be. LB NaVorro Bowman, in his first game since 2013, was one of five Niners with a sack while holding the Vikings offense to just 248 total yards.

San Francisco tallied 395 yards of offense, a number it eclipsed just three times last season, and without the eight penalties, that number could’ve been north of 450. This bodes well for Week 2, as the club is 8-1 on the road when throwing for 150-to-200 yards in the past three seasons with the average margin of victory at 12.4 points per game. The only noticeable weakness for San Francisco was the special teams. Aging kicker Phil Dawson was not sharp once again, rugby star and fan-favorite Jarryd Hayne muffed the first punt of his career, and multiple flags spoiled a brilliant return to the house by WR Bruce Ellington.

Williams’ rushing total last Thursday was his best single-game mark since the final contest of the 2012 season and his first 100+ yard game in nearly two seasons. Ben Roethlisberger was average by his standards in Week 1, throwing for 351 yards, but just one meaningless late-game score to accompany a fourth quarter interception. Pittsburgh's offense moved the ball up and down the field all evening in Foxboro, but a pair of missed field goals and countless missed opportunities left them out in the cold despite outgaining the Pats 464-361.

One encouraging trend for this matchup is San Francisco’s 13-27 mark ATS when allowing 400-to-450 total yards (22-43 ATS when allowing 400+) since 1992. After not forcing a turnover versus New England, the Steelers will look to get back to playing their brand of football, as they’re 8-0 when their defense forces two turnovers in the past three seasons.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-0) at BUFFALO BILLS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -1.5, Total: 45

A pair of AFC East rivals collide in upstate New York on Sunday when the Bills host the Patriots.

New England QB Tom Brady looked like vintage Tom Brady on opening night, while Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor looked like, well, somebody with a stingy defense led by a modern-day mastermind supporting him.

Brady led his Pats out of the tunnel to watch their Super Bowl banner raised and he quickly reminded everybody exactly who still runs the NFL. All Brady did last Thursday versus Pittsburgh was go 25-of-32 for 288 yards with 4 TD passes and no interceptions. It was the 16th time in his illustrious career that he threw for 4+ TD while not tossing a pick. He accomplished the feat twice last season, one of which came in Orchard Park in a 37-22 Pats victory over the Bills.

Buffalo may have given the surprise performance of opening weekend, a 27-14 defensive clinic against Andrew Luck and the Colts. Buffalo took the ball away three times and grabbed a pair of sacks while Taylor’s offensive unit put up zeroes in both categories. Early season success is nothing new for the Bills though, as they’re 30-15 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. Buffalo’s defense needs to impose its will on New England, and if they can keep the score low, they’ll have a shot.

Over the past three seasons, New England is 0-7 ATS when scoring 15-21 points, a number that new Bills head coach Rex Ryan would be thrilled to see for the visitor this Sunday. The Patriots have struggled in games when the turnover battle is even, going 2-8 ATS in the past three seasons in those games, including 0-7 ATS on the road. However, Tom Brady has a career 23-3 record against Buffalo, which is his best (most wins and best win pct) against any opponent he’s faced more than five times in his career.

New England’s defense didn't shine against Pittsburgh, but is due to bounce back against a quarterback with such little game experience, as since 1992 the Pats are 39-19 ATS the week after being outgained by 100 yards, and Bill Belichick is 24-10 ATS in such games in his career. Overall, New England holds a 26-17 mark ATS versus Buffalo, but the club has split the past four meetings ATS.

Two of Brady's four TD passes against Buffalo last year went to WR Brandon LaFell who currently sits on the PUP list with a bad foot, the other two went to former backup TE Tim Wright and little-known WR Brian Tyms. Fast forward to this week and Brady will have all hands on deck with the exception of RB LeGarrette Blount, who’s still serving his suspension for an incident while with the Steelers last season. That should be a huge omission though, as Brady got no help from the running game at Buffalo last year as his team gained only 50 yards on 27 carries.

Brady connected with seven different receivers last week including a 1-yard scoring strike to former Bills TE Scott Chandler, 11 balls to WR Julian Edelman, and three touchdowns to All-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski. RB Dion Lewis impressed last week, totaling 120 scrimmage yards on 19 touches in Blount’s place.

The defense was just good enough last week against the AFC’s top offense from last season, as Pittsburgh racked up nearly 500 yards of offense with arguably the best running back in the NFL sitting out. New England was statistically beaten in every category with the exception of the two that matter, turnovers and points.

Bills QB Tyrod Taylor was efficient in Week 1, going 14-of-19 for 195 yards and a touchdown pass to new WR Percy Harvin. Taylor added 41 yards on the ground, the same total as star RB LeSean McCoy who did add 46 receiving yards to his tally. Taylor and McCoy will need to move the chains on the ground, as New England is 5-1 ATS when allowing 75-to-100 rush yards in the past three years.

Rex Ryan will need to correct two glaring flaws from last week in order to defeat his nemesis. Buffalo had a league-high 113 penalty yards and finished the game just 5-of-13 on third downs. When the opposing quarterback holds a career mark of 23-3 against your franchise, those kinds of mistakes lose games.

Buffalo won a meaningless final matchup of last season at Foxboro, holding the Pats, who had nothing to play for getting ready for the playoffs, to just nine points in the victory, although it’s unlikely that Brady’s backup will be seeing the playing time he did in that meeting. Brady’s two legitimate losses to the Bills both came in Orchard Park, throwing four picks in each of those contests (2011 & 2003). The 2003 game was easily the worst of Brady’s career, and whether it was a lifetime ago or not, two of his six career games with four interceptions have come in Buffalo.

DALLAS COWBOYS (1-0) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Philadelphia -5.5, Total: 56

Fresh off a masterful, game-winning drive in Week 1, Tony Romo leads the Cowboys to Philly on Sunday afternoon to see old friend DeMarco Murray and the Eagles.

In a wild opening weekend for the NFC East, only the Cowboys emerged victorious, and with a win in Philly could get early season pole position in the division race. The loss of top WR Dez Bryant will loom large over the next 6-to-8 weeks, especially in a matchup with the high-scoring Eagles offense. Dallas will need to be much sharper than its three-turnover performance against New York, as the Cowboys were one of just two teams (St. Louis) to win in Week 1 despite multiple turnovers.

Dallas wasn’t great against the Giants, but seemed to come up with a play in the biggest moments of the game. Playing keep-away from New York in the first half kept Eli Manning and company out of rhythm despite not committing a turnover. New York possessed the ball for only 8:01 in the first half against Dallas, which will be a recipe for success for Rod Marinelli and the Cowboys defense against Chip Kelly’s offense.

Dallas will need to find a way to get after Philadelphia QB Sam Bradford who, like Romo, didn’t go down a single time in Week 1. DT Tyrone Crawford had the only Cowboys sack in the season opener, but the front seven seemed to keep Manning off balance and uncomfortable all night.

In the past two seasons, Dallas is 6-0 ATS when playing on grass and also 6-0 ATS when playing a road game following a home game. They’re also a team that loves being slighted by the sharps; the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS as underdogs in the past three years.

However, Philadelphia has been a resilient bunch under Chip Kelly, as the Eagles are 6-0 ATS coming off of a road loss in the past three years.

Dallas QB Tony Romo will be adjusting to life without WR Dez Bryant, which is a huge bonus for a Philly defense that was abused by Falcons star receiver Julio Jones Monday night. Bryant has seven TD (most versus any opponent) in eight career meetings with the division rival Eagles, and Terrence Williams will move up to the top receiver spot in his absence. Since Bryant entered the league, the Cowboys are 3-2 in games that he has missed; Bryant has played in every game for Dallas since week two of 2011.

Despite winning the past three matchups in Philly, Romo has struggled against the Eagles in his career. In 17 starts, he is 10-7 against them, but his passer rating of 86.7 is his lowest mark against any NFC opponent. Despite that, Dallas is 3-1 ATS versus Philly in the past two years with the road team winning straight up in all four. However, the last four in Philly have all been decided by double digits.
Philly RB DeMarco Murray struggled mightily in his debut, rushing for nine yards on just eight carries. Murray also had four grabs for 11 yards, giving him a subpar 20 yards from scrimmage on 12 touches.

Although Philly outgained Atlanta 399-395, the Eagles continued to hurt themselves with penalties (10 for 88 yards) and poor third-down execution (3-of-12 on 3rd Downs). The Philadelphia offense averaged 6.8 yards per play after halftime against Atlanta on Monday night following a sluggish first half where the team had the same number of punts (five) as first downs. Oddly enough, the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in road games when allowing 6+ yards per play over the past three seasons.

The two Eagles that had a positive offensive impact were WR Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 102 yards) and Darren Sproles (126 total yards on 12 touches). If you remove those two players, Philly would have just 13 rushing yards left over and 158 of its 336 yards through the air. The remaining offensive plays totaled 171 yards on 30 plays (5.7 yds per play) while Sproles and Matthews moved the ball at over 10.4 yards per play (228 yards, 22 touches).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Public Fades - Week 2

The road favorites dominated last Sunday in the NFL as the Packers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Panthers, and Bengals all picked up victories and covers. Although the Eagles and Vikings faltered on Monday night, road ‘chalk’ still compiled a profitable 5-4 SU/ATS record in Week 1. Will that carry over into Week 2 or will the public get tripped up by trying to ride the road favorite train?

This Sunday, two teams that put together victories in the opening week are listed as away favorites. Arizona and St. Louis are being bet by the public against inferior foes as we’ll isolate on these two squads and whether or not they are solid wagering opportunities in Week 2.

Cardinals (-2, 45) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona began the 2014 season at 9-1, which included a 3-1 mark away from University of Phoenix Stadium. However, following Carson Palmer’s ACL tear that ended his season, the Cardinals didn’t fare well on the highway, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in the final five road games, capped off by a playoff defeat at Carolina.

The Cardinals allowed 355 passing yards in last Sunday’s 31-19 victory over the Saints, but Arizona’s defense to limit New Orleans to one touchdown and four field goals and just 54 yards on the ground. The Bears showed some signs of life in a 31-23 loss to the Packers in the opener, leading Green Bay, 13-10 at halftime. However, the Packers outscored the Bears, 21-3 in the second half prior to a late touchdown to send Chicago to its sixth straight loss since last November.

So why back the Bears?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says there plenty of reasons to fade the Cardinals, “Arizona’s offense looked great last week against a Saints defense that is expected to be one of the worst units in the league, even so Arizona was in a one-point game in the fourth quarter before pulling away late. The highly-regarded Cardinals defense also allowed over 400 yards against a re-tooling Saints offense and the Bears could have the potential to put up good numbers again this week.”

Nelson continues his argument on why to take the Bears, “While Chicago lost a big opening game with Green Bay, the Bears outgained the Packers by 80 yards and rushed the ball with great success, gaining 5.7 yards per carry. Chicago is likely to offer more offensive balance compared with New Orleans and the Cardinals will be a similar favorite on the road this week as they were at home last week despite the Cardinals going 12-29 SU on the road since 2010. Chicago trailed one of the NFC favorites by just a point in the fourth quarter last week as this is a team that has a chance to exceed the gloomy preseason expectations with John Fox and a quality coaching staff getting through to the team and the talent level on offense arguably superior to what Arizona offers.”

According to handicapper Antony Dinero, there were some good things to come out of Sunday’s loss by Chicago, “The Bears didn’t grade out all that great against Green Bay and failed to cover, but Jay Cutler moved the ball effectively in spite of constant pressure. Alshon Jeffery moved around well despite his preseason injury woes, while Matt Forte provided a formidable threat that made it easier for Cutler to get Jeffery and Martellus Bennett the ball since the secondary had to keep an eye on the backfield. With another home game in store, it’s not far-fetched to think some improvement won’t result in Chicago netting a cover against visiting Arizona after flirting with it against the superior rival Packers.”

Rams (-3 ½, 41) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

St. Louis jumped out to a 24-13 lead over the two-time defending NFC Champion Seahawks in the season opener, but needed a late touchdown to force overtime. Seattle outscored St. Louis, 18-0 in the fourth quarter prior to a Nick Foles touchdown strike to Lance Kendricks to tie the game at 31-31 and put the Rams not only in a position to cover, but also win. The Rams received the opening kickoff in overtime and knocked in the go-ahead field goal, then stuffed the Seahawks on fourth and short to cash as 3 ½-point underdogs in a 34-31 triumph.

The Rams have lost 11 of their last 16 games away from the Edward Jones Dome since 2013, while two of their three road wins last season came at Tampa Bay and Washington. In the 24-0 victory over the Redskins last December, the Rams were aided by a Tavon Austin punt return for a touchdown in an 18-point third quarter. The Rams struggled last season off a win, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in this situation.

So why back the Redskins?

Nelson says in spite of Washington’s loss to Miami last Sunday, there were positives to pull from the defeat, “Washington put up 349 yards and had a massive time-of-possession edge going up against a Miami defense that most expect to be one of the top units in the league. Quarterback play will be a concern for the Redskins all season and Kirk Cousins did have two interceptions last week but Alfred Morris had a great day on the ground and Washington still possesses a decent receiving corps even without DeSean Jackson. The Redskins led Miami into the fourth quarter and if not for allowing a punt return touchdown in the fourth Washington would have had a good chance to win.”

Handicapper Vince Akins digs deep into his historical vault and provides more evidence to fade the Rams in Week 2, “We are wary of all non-elite road favorites, particularly in the early in the season, but it is losing teams in this spot in the first month of the season that give particular cause for concern. As it happens, there is solid early season system to back that up.”

“Play against an away favorite that won less than eight games last season in the first four weeks of the season. These auspicious road favorites are just 41-54-3 ATS (43.2%) over the past 25 years and it has been a particularly ugly 8-17 ATS since 2010. Despite mustering up just six wins last season and a track record of middling success is going on over a decade, St. Louis has been elevated to road favorite status in Week 2. Be cautious on the Rams,” says Akins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Texans to start Mallett against Panthers

HOUSTON (AP) Houston coach Bill O'Brien says quarterback Ryan Mallett will start for the Texans on Sunday at Carolina.

O'Brien had said earlier in the week that he wouldn't announce a decision until game time. But after the news got out on Wednesday, O'Brien decided to make it official on Thursday.

Brian Hoyer beat Mallett for the job in camp. But Hoyer was benched in the fourth quarter of Houston's season-opening loss to the Chiefs after committing two turnovers. Mallett led Houston on two scoring drives in the final six minutes of 27-20 loss.

Also on Thursday, injured running back Arian Foster returned to practice for the first time since groin surgery. But it's unclear when he'll be ready to play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sore hammy won't keep Julio Jones out

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) Julio Jones vows his sore right hamstring is no cause for alarm.

The two-time Atlanta Pro Bowl receiver missed practice Thursday for the second straight day, but promises to be in the starting lineup when the Falcons (1-0) visit the New York Giants (0-1).

Coach Dan Quinn added there's ''zero'' chance Jones will miss the game.

That's good news for the Falcons.

Jones, who caught nine passes for 141 yards and two first-half touchdowns against Philadelphia, is one of the NFL's elite players at his position.

After tweaking the hamstring, Jones' snaps were limited in the second half, but he still caught a 44-yard pass - the game's longest play - to set up the winning field goal.

''By me being able to go back out there, it wasn't that serious,'' Jones said. ''It's just precautionary. I'm going be ready to go.''

The Giants are coming off a last-minute loss at Dallas after they allowed 72 yards on six passes on the winning drive.

As Philadelphia's cornerbacks found out last week, cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara might have some difficult matchups against Jones.

At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, he has the size and strength to run through jams at the line of scrimmage, and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has designed plays that line up Jones at both outside receiver spots and in the slot. He also occasionally goes in motion before the snap.

''It helps us out that they don't know where I'm going to line up at,'' Jones said. ''Kyle does a great job with that and making sure everyone knows the offense so he can move us around. ''

Jones, who ranked among the league's top three receivers last year in catches and yards receiving, has embraced having more versatility than he had under former coordinator Dirk Koetter.

It was something he had to earn during the offseason, but the farther he advanced, the more Quinn, a first-year head coach, talked about expanding his role in Shanahan's scheme.

''For him, when you're a great player, you're great all the time,'' Quinn said. ''So he goes to another (level) in saying, `I'm ready to work and do the things that I have to do.' Tons of respect for him and how he approaches the game.''

Jones is going about his business this year in the same soft-spoken manner he's used since Atlanta drafted him No. 6 overall from Alabama in 2011.

Owner Arthur Blank has been so impressed with his performance on and off the field that he re-signed Jones to a new five-year contract last month that guaranteed $47.5 million and made him one of the game's highest-paid players.

''I just want to be the best teammate,'' Jones said. ''I hate to let someone down and have myself (underperform) if I'm not getting the proper sleep, if I'm not eating right or I'm not studying. So I do all that to the best of my ability. Then when it's show time, I just go out there and play.''

Notes: WR Devin Hester (toe), OLB Brooks Reed (groin), SS William Moore (illness) and DE Malliciah Goodman (elbow) missed practice. OLB O'Brien Schofield (hip) was a limited participant. LT Jake Matthews (back) and DE Adrian Clayborn (thumb) were full participants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 2

A lot has changed since April when CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas first posted Week 2 of the NFL. Between a combination of injuries, preseason play and one regular season game, several teams have had their ratings massively adjusted -- some higher and lower. You've also got to factor in the books not faring well last Sunday, so a couple of teams books know that are going to get lots of love might be favored too much this week and a couple of teams the public hates is going to get extreme value, or at least a few more points.

Let's take the Buccaneers, for example, for its road game at New Orleans. CG Tech posted the Saints as 6.5-point favorites for this game back in April. The combination of seeing rookie QB Jameis Winston routinely finding trouble -- just like most first halves at Florida State last season -- which led to a 42-14 drubbing last week at the hands of the Titans and their rookie QB. The Saints didn't look all that great in their Week 1 opening loss at Arizona, but the Bucs dropoff in perception and rating forced CG to re-open the Saints -10 on Sunday night.

Is that a proper adjustment? Do we all really think we got Winston figured out? We've really got the book on him and we've come to the conclusion after one week that it's going to be a long year for him and Tampa Bay? Whatever reality might be, it's the public that tells us the answer. And with the way they're betting the game, they're saying -10 is just fine. Sharp money may disagree on game day. The Westgate SuperBook and Wynn are both dealing -9.5 while everyone else is using -10.

A situation where a team may have been upgraded way too high after one week of play is another team led with a rookie QB -- the Titans and Marcus Mariota. Were the Bucs that bad last week or was Mariota so sensational that he's worth a 5.5-point swing?

CG books opened the Browns as 4.5-point home favorites against the Titans in April. This week they re-opened the Titans at -1. Sure, the Browns offense struggled at the Jets last week, but is one week enough time to really properly gauge the ratings of both Cleveland and Tennessee?

Is Johnny Manziel really that big of a drop off from Josh McCown? Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Manziel starting is a 2-point drop off. Sounds high, but even then -- if McCown was starting -- it would be Cleveland -1 which is still a significant jump from where the number started. The Westgate SuperBook and William Hill books have Tennessee -1.5 while Wynn is at Pick 'em.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says the Titans are one of four top public plays this week, along with the Patriots (-1 at Buffalo), Rams (-3.5 at Washington) and Dolphins. Station books are outstanding barometers for what the public is thinking because they write more parlay action than anyone in the state.

McCormick says his sharp plays so far have been on the Bears (+1.5 vs Cardinals) and Lions (+3 at Minnesota). The Lions are now as low as -2 at a few books while Stations is at -2.5. CG Tech had the game Pick 'em back in April.

Let's take a look at where CG Tech books started in April and where they are now. Some of the moves have been made by action, but most of the movement has come from weekly adjustments to each teams' individual rating, movement that really took shape during preseason and then jumped even more after Week 1.

Houston at Carolina: Opened CAR -2.5, now it's -3.
Tampa Bat at New Orleans: NO opened -6.5, now -10.
Miami at Jacksonville: MIA opened -4, now -6.
Baltimore at Oakland: BAL open -5, now -6.
New England at Buffalo: NE opened -1, still the same.
San Diego at Cincinnati: CIN open -3, still the same (CIN -6.5 in 2014 wild card loss to SD)
Tennessee at Cleveland: CLEV open -4.5, TENN now -1
San Francisco at Pittsburgh: PITT open -2.5, now -6.
Atlanta at NY Giants: NYG open -3.5, now it's -2.5.
Dallas at Philadelphia: PHIL -2, now -5.
St. Louis at Washington: STL -2, now it's -3.5 EV.
Arizona at Chicago: AZ open -1, now -2.
Seattle at Green Bay: GB open -1, now -3.5.
Detroit at Minnesota: Opened Pick 'em, now MINN -2.5.
NY Jets at Indianapolis: IND open -7.5, now -7 EV.

You be the judge of where the value rests and if the latest adjustments after one week of play are too much. Whatever plan you roll with -- the quick change or steady conservative approach with each team rating -- good luck with your wagers. There's plenty of value with all the games no matter how you look at it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grading 1st-Year QBs


Week 1 featured triumphant wins by first year starting quarterbacks. Veterans such as Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Jets, Nick Foles of the Rams, Tyrod Taylor of the Bills, and rookie Marcus Mariotta of the Titans were all victorious.

Oddly enough all were on teams that were underdogs to win week one except the Jets.

Yet there were also three other first-year starting quarterbacks that lost. Jameis Winston and his Buccaneers were destroyed, Kirk Cousins and the Redskins went down to Miami, and Brian Hoyer lost his starting gig with the Texans before the game was complete against the Chiefs.

Only Miami were favorites against the Redskins.

Oddsmakers have a difficult task in September pinpointing how much to adjust lines based on first year starting quarterbacks play.

Here is a quick snapshot of how I’d evaluate all seven teams based on talent and operating in the month of September.

1) Buffalo

The Bills with Tyrod Taylor seem a notch higher than in prior years at quarterback. This will be a tough task for oddsmakers to pinpoint offering higher value on the Bills. Defensively they’ve already shown the ability to be able to win on its strength alone as they defeated Green Bay at home last year. Still, Taylor is going to have to show the ability to deliver when a deficit is faced or adversity off of his own turnovers.

Verdict: Jury is still out on Taylor that ATS spots have to be of high value or pass until late-September

2) New York Jets

Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown this tease before. He has had numerous stints throughout the NFL with the Rams, Bengals, Titans, Bills, Texans, and now Jets. At just 32 this is typically when you see a veteran quarterback re-rise his level of play for one last career contract. There’s no reason to suggest that Fitzpatrick can’t do what he is asked of with a Todd Bowles led defense and a strong running game with Chris Ivory.

Verdict: The Jets remain a strong ATS selection for September

3) St. Louis Rams

In week one’s win Nick Foles took some physical hits that have to remain in the back of minds of sports bettors. He has already had a tough time staying healthy dating back to his starts in Philadelphia. Every week there are not going to be gadget or special teams touchdowns to bail the Rams offense out. It was a big win against Seattle but how much of that has to do with the regression of the Seahawks overall?

Verdict: Oddsmakers are onto the Rams. There are no loopholes to be discovered.

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let the Lovie Smith firing rants begin along with the Winston bust assumptions. I’m not ready to jump on that wagon yet. Sure the Titans throttled the Buccaneers but it was only one game. Mike Evans was injured and Winston started the game horribly with miscues and turnovers. Who is to say that other defenses in the NFL would have been prepared for a specific tailored offense to Marcus Mariotta? The Buccaneers are not going to be a perennial team but value is on them ATS similar to last season when they covered games against Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and others.

Verdict: Value ATS should be on the Bucs side for September

5) Houston Texans

I’m not a huge fan of Ryan Mallet but fans of the Texans should be elated that was not a further wait to bench Brian Hoyer. Last season the Texans defense led by JJ Watt had already endured a tough season. With Mallet’s strong arm he can deliver deep balls to breakout wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. It also shouldn’t be long before Arian Foster returns to the lineup.

Verdict: We still need time to see how Mallet handles regaining the starting job.

6) Tennessee Titans

The tailored offense of the Titans was fun to watch Sunday but how long will it run successfully before defenses catch up? All rookie quarterbacks struggle at some point. Bettors need to realize that this is the same Titans team that got nothing from Sankey and others a season ago. They punched the Buccaneers in the mouth but I doubt they score 42 points again this season.

Verdict: Overvalued ATS off of Week 1’s performance

7) Washington Redskins

The ugliness of the Redskins season is going to be profiled all season long. It was thought that the Cousins-McCoy-RG3 show was ending last year. Yet all three remain under an odd story line that oddsmakers have already fallen in love with. Keep that dreamy romance with the Redskins alive bettors, as the season has many more gifts ahead.

Verdict: Double-digit lines will still be deemed valuable throughout the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 2 Tip Sheet

Buccaneers at Saints (-10, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay put together the ugliest performance of Week 1, getting trampled by Tennessee in a 42-14 home defeat as three-point favorites. Jameis Winston’s NFL debut was extremely forgettable, tossing an interception on his first pass that was returned for a touchdown, as the Bucs fell behind, 21-0 after one quarter. Tampa Bay is flipped to a double-digit underdog at the Superdome, looking to redeem themselves after squandering an 11-point fourth quarter lead last season in a 37-31 overtime loss as an 11-point underdogs.

The Saints put up plenty of yards in last week’s 31-19 setback at Arizona, posting 408 yards, but finding the end zone just once. New Orleans didn’t accomplish much on the ground, rushing for 54 yards on 20 carries against a solid Cardinals’ rush defense. Sean Payton’s club struggled as a home favorite in 2014, compiling a 2-6 ATS record, including five straight losses at the Superdome to close the season, the most home defeats since 2007.

49ers at Steelers (-6, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

San Francisco travels cross-country following Monday night’s dominating effort over Minnesota, as the Niners won Jim Tomsula’s debut, 20-3 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. The Niners pounded out 230 yards on the ground, including 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns from former Ohio State standout Carlos Hyde. However, San Francisco will be without tailback Reggie Bush, who suffered a thigh injury on Monday. In Colin Kaepernick’s 19 career road starts, he owns a 14-5 record away from the Bay Area, while going 4-4 ATS as a road underdog (all four losses have come at Seattle).

The Steelers scored a late touchdown to hurt New England backers last Thursday in a 28-21 loss, covering as 7 ½-point underdogs in spite of trailing by as many as 18 points. Pittsburgh will still be without several key members on offense as running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Martavis Bryant remain suspended, while Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is sidelined with a leg injury. The Steelers have lost three of their last four interconference games at Heinz Field, while compiling a 2-3 ATS record in early kickoffs at home in 2014.

Falcons at Giants (-2 ½, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta heads to Met Life Stadium with plenty of confidence after holding off Philadelphia on Monday night, 26-24 as three-point home underdogs. The Falcons gave away a 20-3 advantage as the Eagles rallied for 21 unanswered points; however, Matt Bryant’s 47-yard field goal halfway through fourth quarter gave Atlanta the lead for good and Dan Quinn his first NFL coaching victory. Atlanta is seeking consecutive wins for only the second time since the start of 2013, while falling to New York at Met Life last season, 30-20 as four-point underdogs.

The Giants managed a cover as seven-point underdogs at Dallas last Sunday night, but New York couldn’t hold onto a late six-point lead in a 27-26 defeat to their division rivals. Eli Manning took plenty of blame for the defeat as the Giants’ quarterback stopped the clock with an incomplete pass on New York’s final drive that resulted in a field goal, instead of falling on the ball to run another 30 seconds off the clock. The Giants will play two home games in a five-day span with the Redskins coming to town on Thursday, as Tom Coughlin’s team has dropped three straight home openers dating back to 2012.

Lions at Vikings (-2 ½, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Both these NFC North rivals lost on the road to start the season, falling in different fashion. Detroit threw away a 21-3 lead in a 33-28 setback at San Diego, as the Lions have lost four consecutive road season openers. The Lions’ defense was shredded by allowing 483 yards to the Chargers, while the offense didn’t score a point for nearly 38 minutes following the early 21-point second quarter lead. Detroit swept the season series from Minnesota last season, limiting the Vikings to 17 points in both wins, as each game finished ‘under’ the total.

The Vikings were held to a field goal in a 20-3 defeat at San Francisco, as Adrian Peterson rushed for 31 yards on 10 carries in his first game in nearly a year. Minnesota closed out last season with three consecutive wins at TCF Bank Stadium, while posting a 4-1 ATS record in its final five home games. The Vikings didn’t have much success against division foes in 2014, losing five of six contests, while being listed as a home favorite against the Lions for just the second time since 2011.

Cowboys at Eagles (-5, 55) – 4:25 PM EST

Tony Romo led a late Dallas comeback past New York in a 27-26 triumph with a touchdown pass to Jason Witten in the final seconds to give the Cowboys an opening week win. However, it came at a price as standout wide receiver Dez Bryant suffered a broken bone in his right foot and will be out for at least four weeks. Dallas won all three road games inside the NFC East last season, including a 38-27 victory at Lincoln Financial Field as three-point underdogs, while each of those contests sailed ‘over’ the total.

The Eagles began the Sam Bradford era with 336 yards through the air, but fell to 1-4 ATS in the last five tries as a road favorite in a 26-24 loss at Atlanta on Monday night. There was plenty of criticism on the lack of touches in the backfield for newly acquired running back DeMarco Murray, who rushed for nine yards on eight carries (Eagles ran the ball 16 times total). Philadelphia looks to beat Dallas at home for the first time since 2011, as the Eagles scored at least 27 points in each of their seven games as a home favorite last season (6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Manziel to start Sunday for Browns

BEREA, Ohio (AP) Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel will start Sunday's home opener against Tennessee.

Manziel will be making his third NFL start, replacing Josh McCown, who sustained a concussion last week against the New York Jets and has been following the NFL's protocol on head injuries.

The Browns announced Manziel's start before Friday's practice was opened to the media.

McCown had been expected to practice, and coach Mike Pettine said if he did, the 36-year-old veteran would play against the Titans. Pettine will have an update on his quarterback following practice.

Manziel came off the bench last Sunday against the New York Jets after McCown was injured on Cleveland's opening drive. Manziel threw his first career touchdown pass, but also committed three turnovers in a 31-10 loss.

Manziel has shown progress following a rough rookie season, which was followed by him entering a rehab facility.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STEPHEN NOVER
NFL | Sep 20, 2015
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Washington Redskins+3½

It certainly was an impressive home win for the Rams last Sunday when they beat their hated division rivals the Seahawks. Now, though, the Rams are traveling in a letdown spot to face the Redskins, who will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 home start.
So the situation sets up well for Washington. But are the Redskins good enough to back? Let me put it this way: The Rams are not good enough to back laying on the road in this spot. St. Louis hasn't been this high of a road favorite since 2010. It's not justified.
The Rams have a great pass rushing line. However, the Redskins are now a ground-and-pound team. Washington outgained Miami, 349-256. and controlled the clock, 37:54-22:06 in its seven-point defeat to the Dolphins last Sunday.
This is going to be a conservative, field position type of matchup where a field goal looms large. The Rams aren't as good as the Dolphins. They have an inexperienced offensive line - half of their offensive linemen are rookies - and their two best running backs, Tre Mason and Todd Gurley, are banged-up. Gurley isn't expected to play. Nick Foles isn't that much better than Kirk Cousins.
Even minus DeSean Jackson, the Redskins hold a receiving edge with Pierre Garcon and tight end Jordan Reed, who is expected to play. I also would take Alfred Morris over any of St. Louis' running backs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Vikings -2.5

I believe we are getting some great value here with the Minnesota Vikings laying less than a field goal (-2.5) at home against the Detroit Lions. I believe this is a major overreaction to what took place on Monday Night Football, with Minnesota getting embarrassed 20-3 by the San Francisco 49ers. While Detroit also lost their opener, they were at least competitive in a 28-33 defeat at San Diego and at one point led 21-3.
The public was all over Minnesota in their game and have quickly turned their backs on the Vikings, as I'm showing close to 63% of the early action coming in on the Lions. I believe the public looks down on Minnesota's loss more because of how bad the 49ers were suppose to be. While I was one of those that didn't think San Francisco would be any good, that's clearly a much better team than expected.
I still think Minnesota is one of the up and coming teams in 2015 and will be a strong team to back on their home field, especially if they keep getting undervalued like we see here. Keep in mind that the Vikings won 4 of their last 5 at home in 2014, with the only loss being a 21-24 defeat to Green Bay. Detroit's a quality team, but I don't think that defense will be near as good without Suh. There's also not a great road team. They were 4-4 on the road compared to 7-1 at home last year.
Speaking of the Lions defense, they allowed Philip Rivers to complete 35 of 42 attempts for 404 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also giving up 95 yards on the ground. I look for Teddy Bridgewater to bounce back in a big way against this soft secondary, while also getting Adrian Peterson more involved (only 10 carries in Week 1).
Clearly the weakness of the Vikings stop unit is their run defense, which doesn't come as a big surprise. Last year the Vikings ranked 25th against the run (121.4 ypg) and 7th against the pass (223.2 ypg). Detroit has a pass-happy offense to say the least. They went up against a poor San Diego run defense last week (ranked 26th vs run in 2014) and only attempted 16 carries. The Lions are going to play right into the strength of the Vikings.
I know the Vikings have 1 less day of rest/preparation due to playing on Monday Night Football, but that's not a concern for me. Minnesota is very familiar with what the Lions are going to try and do both offensively and defensively. I also don't think losing a day is as big early in the year, as players are fresh and have not experienced the grind of a season.
I would argue the situation is harder on Detroit with having to play back-to-back road games. Either way the Lions have a history of not playing up to expectations on the road. With the loss to the Chargers, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. They also haven't been good off high-scoring games. The Lions are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 30 or more points and 14-33 ATS in their last 51 road games after playing in a game with 50 or more combined points. Give me the home team laying less than a field goal in this NFC North showdown. Take Minnesota!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SAM MARTIN

5* Bonus Play on New England (+1)

Buffalo Bills looked strong in their upset win against the Colts last week, and the overreaction to that win has Buffalo as a virtual pick 'em spot this week against AFC East rival New England. We'll back the Patriots here with great line value noting they have beaten Buffalo in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, and with all the trash talk coming from the home side we believe New England will answer that talk with their play on the field.
Patriots beat Pittsburgh last Thursday so they have a few extra days of rest to prepare for this game. They also get starting RB LeGarrette Blount back after serving a one-game suspension, so Brady will have all of his weapons available. Colts seemed surprised by the number of blitzes Buffalo threw at them last week, but Brady won't be surprised by that blitzing tendency and they'll have their game plan ready. Brady has no problem playing the short, quick passing game which is exactly how to counter a blitz-heavy defense. New England has been the king of this division for years and prove they're still on top with a win this Sunday. 5* Bonus Play on New England.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRANDON LEE

10* FREE NFL PICK (Bills +2)

Not surprised to see the Patriots favored on the road, as this team is going to be overvalued early off that Super Bowl win. I was as impressed with the Bills in Week 1 as any team in the league. Their defense made Andrew Luck look like a below-average quarterback and that's not easy to do. Luck isn't the first elite quarterback to struggle against this Bills defense, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers both looked bad against this unit late last year. With a renewed homefield advantage and Rex Ryan's history of his defenses giving Tom Brady trouble, I think the Bills are primed for a win here. Buffalo's offense will be able to score against a very overrated New England defense, which was fortunate to only allow 21-points to the Steelers in Week 1 (Pittsburgh had 464 yards of total offense, missed 2 field goals, had to settle for 2 more and only punted twice). Give me the Bills +2!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Pittsburgh Steelers.

Edges - Steelers: 5-1 ATS home openers versus foe off SU loss; and 7-2 ATS home openers versus non-division opponents. 49ers; 2-8 ATS as a dog after playing on Monday night. With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger 4-0 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus NFC west opponents, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIM FEIST

(274) Cleveland Browns

Your Bonus Play for Sunday, September 20, 2015 is in the NFL Scheduled contest between the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns. Josh McCown is out today for the Browns, that means Johnny Manziel gets the start. Manziel came in relief of McCown last week and looked good to start, but then bogged down as the Browns lost what should have been a win. Manziel gets to workout all week as the top QB, so that should help him here. The Titans put up the most points in week 1, 42 against the hapless Bucs. Marcus Mariota was very good, tossing 4-Td's. Though it did come against the Bucs, so we have to wait and see. I'm not jumping on the Mariota band wagon, mainly because his stats came at the expense of arguably the worst team in the NFL. The Browns defense will give Mariota a tough time this week. Second straight game for the Titans on the road too and that's always tough. In addition, the Titans are just 4-15-3 ATS in their last 22 games against the AFC. I think the Browns are much better than they looked last week and the Titans much worse. I am going to take Cleveland here at home on Sunday to get in the win column.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Houston at Carolina

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 20, 2015
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

One week into the season and there's a quarterback controversy in Houston. The Texans look to bounce back from a disappointing season-opening defeat when they visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in a battle of two of the game's best defenses.

Houston coach Bill O'Brien benched Brian Hoyer in favor of Ryan Mallett during the Texans' 27-20 loss to Kansas City last week. O'Brien decided he will go forward with Mallett as the starter as Houston prepares for a stingy Panthers defense which throttled Jacksonville 20-9 last week. Carolina, however, could be without its top defender as Pro Bowl middle linebacker Luke Kuechly is still recovering from a concussion suffered against the Jaguars. Even without Kuechly, Carolina held Jacksonville to 75 yards in the second half, intercepted two passes and recorded four of their five sacks.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Panthers -3. O/U: 40.5.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (0-1): Hoyer was 18-for-34 for 236 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week, but he will be benched in favor of Mallett, who "added a spark to our team," according to O'Brien. Mallett finished 8-for-13 with a touchdown in relief, but the biggest problem for Houston was its highly touted defense, which was gashed for 106 yards and a pair of scores by tight end Travis Kelce and fell behind 27-6 in the first half. Alfred Blue rushed for 42 yards in place of the injured Arian Foster, who is reportedly way ahead of schedule in his recovery from groin surgery but is unlikely to play this week.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (1-0): Carolina limited Jacksonville to 265 total yards of offense and shut out the Jaguars in the second half last week. Once again, Cam Newton was the focal point of the offense, passing for 175 yards and running for 35 more. Tight end Greg Olsen caught just one pass for 11 yards last week and he may not get much more involved in the passing game this week as he will bear some of the responsibility of blocking Texans star lineman J.J. Watt.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins, an emerging star, caught two TD passes last week in the 27-20 loss.

2. Panthers DT Star Lotulelei expects to make his first appearance of the season after suffering a foot injury in August.

3. Panthers OT Darryl Williams is out for 2-4 weeks with a knee sprain.

PREDICTION: Texans 21, Panthers 14