Sunday 9/18/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Bengals Visit Steelers in AFC North Showdown'

There’s no love lost between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a pair of AFC North rivals vying for an early leg up in the division race. Their matchup in Pittsburgh highlights the Week 2 card.

The Bengals (1-0) edged the New York Jets 23-22 on the road in their opening game, led by the duo of Andy Dalton and AJ Green. Dalton was sacked seven times and still passed for 366 yards and a score, which went to Green. Green had 12 catches for 180 yards and torched the Jets' Darrelle Revis all day long.

It's a short week for the Steelers (1-0), who routed Washington 38-16 on the road on Monday Night Football. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns – two to Antonio Brown, who had eight receptions for 126 yards. DeAngelo Williams also ran for 143 yards and two touchdowns for the Steelers.

The Steelers have won four of their last five against the Bengals overall and 15 of their last 24 at home with Cincinnati. However, the Bengals have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 2 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

We still have two games to go on Monday night, but what a fantastic opening weekend of the NFL season. The week started with reigning Super Bowl champion Denver winning at home against Carolina on a missed Panthers field goal at the end, and Sunday concluded with New England winning at Arizona (in a potential Super Bowl preview) without Tom Brady on a missed Cardinals field goal at the end. There were four games that were decided by one point, the first time in NFL history that four games have been decided by exactly one point on kickoff weekend.

The Patriots are clear big winners of Week 1 and showed why they should never be doubted under Bill Belichick. Now the Patriots could be favored in every game the rest of the way as their next three are at home -- they are -6.5 this week vs. Miami -- and then Brady's back. New England beat the Cardinals without tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is being called week-to-week due to a hamstring injury. More good news for the Pats: the rest of the AFC East lost in Week 1.

You'd have to say the AFC West looked like the best division in the first week. The Broncos had that big come-from-behind win. Oakland rallied to win in New Orleans when Coach Jack Del Rio decided to go for the winning 2-point conversion in the final minute when probably every other coach in the NFL takes the nearly sure 1-point PAT and sends it to OT. The Raiders became only the fourth team to score the game-winning points on a 2-point conversion in the final minute of the fourth quarter and the first to do so in a season opener.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs were down 27-10 in the fourth quarter at home to San Diego but won 33-27 in overtime. It was K.C.'s 11th straight regular-season win and it became the first team in league history to extend a winning streak of at least 10 games with at least a 21-point comeback victory. The Chargers obviously are the only AFC West team to lose.

Here are some Week 2 games and opening lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on the Thursday game (Jets-Bills), marquee Sunday game (Bengals-Steelers) or Monday night game (Eagles-Bears) as I will be previewing those.

Jaguars at Chargers (-3, 48): San Diego's Mike McCoy was one of the betting favorites at sportsbooks to be the first coach fired this year, and his seat just got way hotter after that choke job in Kansas City. Ditto for Jacksonville's Gus Bradley, who was a third-favorite on that prop, although the Jags did play well in a close home loss to Green Bay. More bad news for McCoy: it hasn't been confirmed as of this writing, but it sounds like the Bolts might have lost top receiver Keenan Allen to a season-ending torn ACL. What a shame as that San Diego offense looked quite potent with everyone healthy. Allen had six catches for 63 yards vs. Kansas City before going down. He was on pace for a monster season in 2015 but was lost after eight games. Philip Rivers just can't catch a break. San Diego won in Jacksonville 31-25 in Week 12 last year behind 300 yards passing and four TDs from Rivers. The losing coach here is in massive trouble. This also could be the final home opener in San Diego for the Chargers if a vote on a tax hike for a new stadium doesn't go their way on Nov. 8. The pick: Jaguars and over.

Saints at Giants (-4.5, 51.5): New year, same problem for the Saints as they are simply atrocious on defense. Drew Brees was spectacular in Week 1 in throwing for 423 yards and four touchdowns vs. Oakland. It was Brees' 14th career 400-yard passing game, tying Peyton Manning for the most in NFL history, and Brees could easily break that mark this week going against Peyton's brother Eli. New Orleans allowed 486 yards to Oakland in the loss and 22 fourth-quarter points. In addition, the Saints' best cornerback, Delvin Breaux, broke his leg and obviously is going to be out a long while. The other three cornerbacks active for the Saints on Sunday all made their NFL debuts, so things could get ugly. I previewed the Giants-Cowboys game in Week 1 here at Doc's and took the Giants at pick'em. They won 20-19 on an Eli Manning TD pass to Victor Cruz with about six minutes left. Dallas might have had a chance for a late long field-goal try at the end of regulation, but receiver Terrance Williams had one of the stupidest plays you will ever see, failing to get out of bounds on the final play when Dallas was out of timeouts. He easily could have. New York lost in New Orleans last year 52-49, the third-highest scoring game in NFL history. Brees threw for 505 yards and seven scores and Manning 350 and six. The pick: Giants and over.

Packers at Vikings (+2.5, 45): This is the Sunday night game and Minnesota's first one that counts in the team's gleaming new U.S. Bank Stadium. I have a feeling we might see a special prop this week asking if any other team this year will win a game without scoring an offensive touchdown. That's what Minnesota did in Week 1, 25-16 at Tennessee. Shaun Hill got the start at quarterback and wasn't very good, going 18-for-33 for 236 yards. Adrian Peterson was held in check in gaining 31 yards on 19 carries. Minnesota scored two defensive touchdowns, an Eric Kendricks 77-yard INT return and Danielle Hunter 24-yard fumble return. I'm fairly confident the Vikings will turn it over to Sam Bradford under center in this one. The Pack were pushed to the limit in Jacksonville, winning 27-23. Jordy Nelson caught six passes for 32 yards and a TD in his first game since the 2015 preseason. Aaron Rodgers threw for two scores and ran for another. Green Bay top cornerback Sam Shields might have suffered a concussion in the game, so keep an eye on his status here. Of course, these teams met in Week 17 last year at Lambeau in an NFC North winner-take-all game and the Vikings won a 20-13 upset. The pick: Vikings (if it's Bradford) and under. I'm hoping this gets to 3 or higher as the spread already has risen a half-point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dolphins head to Foxboro'

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots September 18, 1:00 EST

Miami Dolphins continue their tough road swing to start their season travelling to Foxboro to take on division rival New Engalnd Patriots. The Dolphins couldn't pull the outright upset up in Seattle but certainly hung in there falling 12-10 while cashing as 10.5 point underdogs. As for Patriots, they not only went on the road and beat the defending NFC West champion Cardinals as 9.5 point road underdogs, they did it without Tom Brady and the leagues best tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Dolphins' certainly look like a different team under new head coach Adam Gase but outsmarting sideline genius Bill Belichick in this AFC East tilt is a whole different ball game. The Patriots have won seven consecutive meetings by an average 19.9 PPG in front of the home audience and 13-of-16 at home in the Bellichik era with a profitable 11-5 ATS record against the betting line. Considering Miami’s overall underachieving ways recently vs a division opponent (1-8 ATS), it's skid in an AFC East opponent's back yard (0-7 ATS) were recommending laying the expect 6.5 points knowing Patriots have a profitable 11-4-3 ATS record as home chalk of seven or less, 6-2-1 ATS mark as home chalk off upset win as underdogs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Bengals Visit Steelers in AFC North Showdown'

There’s no love lost between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a pair of AFC North rivals vying for an early leg up in the division race. Their matchup in Pittsburgh highlights the Week 2 card.

The Bengals (1-0) edged the New York Jets 23-22 on the road in their opening game, led by the duo of Andy Dalton and AJ Green. Dalton was sacked seven times and still passed for 366 yards and a score, which went to Green. Green had 12 catches for 180 yards and torched the Jets' Darrelle Revis all day long.

It's a short week for the Steelers (1-0), who routed Washington 38-16 on the road on Monday Night Football. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns – two to Antonio Brown, who had eight receptions for 126 yards. DeAngelo Williams also ran for 143 yards and two touchdowns for the Steelers.

The Steelers have won four of their last five against the Bengals overall and 15 of their last 24 at home with Cincinnati. However, the Bengals have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sept. 18

TENNESSEE at DETROIT (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Caldwell 3-0-1 as home chalk last season. Lions also "over" 8-2 last 10 as host. Mularkey 2-8 SU and vs. line since LY, Titans 8-28-2 last 38 vs. line since late 2013.
Tech Edge: Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chiefs won and covered twice LY, including Wild Card round romp. But Houston has covered last 3 and 8 of last 10 in regular season since late LY.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team and series trends.

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Home team has won and covered last six meetings and is 7-0-1 vs. line last eight. Belichick has won and covered four straight at home vs. Miami, all by DD margins (win margin 23.8 ppg!). Belichick 4-1-3 as home chalk LY.
Tech Edge: Patriots, based on series home trends.

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ugh! John Harbaugh 7-1 SU and vs. line last 8 at Cleveland since taking over Ravens in 2008. Browns 4-8-1 as dog LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on series and team trends.

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Road team won all three meetings LY. Bengals 13-3-1 vs. spread in 2015. Marvin Lewis also 13-3-1 as dog since 2013. Steel "over" 9-4 last 13 as Heinz Field chalk.
Tech Edge: Bengals and "over" based on team and "totals" trends.

DALLAS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dallas was 4-11-1 vs. line in injury-plagued 2015. Cowboys though have won last 3 SU at Washington. Jay Gruden just 1-5 as home chalk the past two seasons.
Tech Edge: Cowboys, based on series trends.

NEW ORLEANS at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
These two way "over" in last two meetings (52-27 in 2012 and 52-49 LY). Saints "over" 22-12 last 34 since late 2013. Saints 7-3-1 as dog since 2014.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Saints, if dog, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chip teams "over" 15-9 on road past three seasons . Niners 2-6 as road dog LY. Cam 6-2 at home LY, Panthers also "over" 6-2-1 as host LY.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

TAMPA BAY at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Arians 31-16-1 vs. line in reg season since 2013 with Cards, he was 7-2-1 as home chalk first two seasons before 3-5 mark in role a year ago.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at LOS ANGELES (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams beat Seahawks twice LY! Russell Wilson just 2-6 vs. line against Rams since 2012. Jeff Fisher "under" 12-4-1 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to "under" based on series and "totals" trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Note that Andrew Luck is 3-1 SU and 4-0 vs. line against Denver since 2013. Those games "over" 3-1. Colts 6-2 as dog LY. Kubiak 1-4-2 as home chalk LY.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Falcs now 2-11 last 13 on board since early 2015, and 1-5 last six away from home. Falcs were also "under" 13-3 last season and 23-10 since 2014. Raiders "over" 19-12-1 last two seasons but only 1-3 as favorite in 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders, based on team trends.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN DIEGO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rivers has won and covered last 4 vs. Jags dating to 2010. But Bolts only 4-8 as chalk since 2014. Jags "over" 20-12 away since 2012.
Tech Edge: Rivers has won and covered last 4 vs. Jags dating to 2010. But Bolts only 4-8 as chalk since 2014. Jags "over" 20-12 away since 2012.

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack 4-1-1 SU but only 3-3 vs. line against Vikes since 2013. They have won three in a row SU in Minneapolis but this is first game in new US Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on series trends.


Monday, Sept. 19

PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Bears 1-7 vs. line at home LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles, based on Bears home negatives.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week*2 NFL

Titans (0-1) @ Lions (1-0)– Detroit is 8-2-2 as home favorite under Caldwell. Tennessee led Vikings 10-0 at half LW, but offense gave up two TDs in second half of demoralizing loss. Only two teams lost LY when they didn’t allow a TD on offense. Detroit blew 21-3 lead, rallied late for win in Indy; they had five TD drives of 71+ yards. Titans won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they won last three visits to Motor City. Titans are 6-3 (7-2 vs spread) in last nine road openers; they’re 9-17 as road dogs the last four years. Lions won four of last five home openers; they’re 8-1-1 as a favorite in HOs, but just 6-10-1 in last 17 games vs AFC teams. Under is 15-4 in Titans’ last 19 road openers, 1-5 in Detroit’s last six home openers. Titans’ DC LeBeau played his whole 14-year career for the Lions.

Chiefs (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)– KC rallied back from down 24-3 with 21:00 left for OT win in its opener; Chiefs are 7-6 as road underdogs last three years, 11-6 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 8-3 as home favorites under O’Brien; they’re 14-11-1 in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less. Texans shut Chicago out in second half LW; they were 12-20 on 3rd down, ran 18 more plays, had 8-yard edge in field position. Road team won four of seven series games; KC is 3-2 here, with 27-20 win in LY’s opener. Chiefs lost six of last nine road openers but are 10-5 vs spread in last 15 AOs (under 7-4 in last 11). Texans’ DC Crennel was once HC of Chiefs (2012).

Dolphins (0-1) @ Patriots (1-0)– Interim QB Garoppolo passed his first test with flying colors in Arizona, he passed for 257 yards, Pats converted 10-16 on 3rd down and won 23-21- they’re 12-6-3 as home favorite last three years. Miami didn’t allow TD until last minute 12-10 loss at Seattle; last four years, Dolphins are 2-8 as divisional road dogs. Miami gained 222 yards LW, 2nd-least in NFL, gaining 4.8 yds/pass attempt- they lost despite 10-yard edge in field position. Home side won last seven series games; Miami lost seven in a row in Foxboro, last four by 10+ points (three of four by 28+). Patriots are 13-1 in last 14 home openers (2-5-1 vs spread in last eight); their last four HOs stayed under the total.

Ravens (1-0) @ Browns (0-1)– 37-year old McCown gets start at QB for Browns after RGII broke his shoulder; he is 2-17 as a starter last two years (Bucs/Browns). Cleveland may be 1-17 in its season openers, but they’re 8-9 in Week 2 games, 5-2 at home. Baltimore is 14-2 in last 16 series games, going 7-1 in last eight visits to their old home, but Ravens lost four of last five road openers (win was here). Browns are 1-5 vs spread in AFC North games last two years; they were outgained 403-288 LW- they lost field position by 17 yards. Ravens held Buffalo to 160 yards in 13-7 win LW; Bills averaged only 4.0 yards/pass attempt. Over is 6-2-1 in Ravens’ last nine AOs, 5-8 in Cleveland’s last 13 HOs.

Bengals (1-0) @ Steelers (1-0)– Pitt knocked Cincy out of playoffs LY with 18-16 win in Cincy. Bengals drove 55 yards in nine plays to kick GW FG with 0:54 left in its opener in Jersey Swamp. Cincy is 13-4-3 as road underdog last five years; over last seven years, they’re 30-15-2 as single-digit dog. Steelers won 12 of last 13 home openers; they are 7-3 vs spread as favorite in HOs. Last three years, Pitt is 11-6 as home favrotie- they won four of last five games vs Bengals; teams split last four here. Steelers were 9-14 on 3rd down in Monday night win- they gained 147 yards on ground, 288 thru air in a well-balanced attack with Big Ben calling plays. Four of last five series totals were 44+. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total.

Cowboys (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1)– First road start for rookie QB Prescott (25-45/227 vs Giants last week). Dallas had one TD, two FGs in three visits to red zone; they tried FGs on four of six drives that started 75+ yards from end zone- their only TD drive was 35 yards. Teams split last eight series games; Dallas won last three in Maryland, winning 24-23/44-17/19-16. Skins had only 12 carries for 55 yards in home loss vs Steelers Monday; former Redskin RB Morris had 35 rushing yards in backup role for Dallas. Divisional underdogs were 4-0 vs spread last week. Cowboys are 18-8 vs spread in last 26 road openers, winning six of last nine SU. Washington was in Steeler territory seven times Monday, scored only one TD.

Saints (0-1) @ Giants (1-0)– Brees had 511 passing yards in 52-49 win over Giants LY; home side won nine of last ten series games, Saints losing five of last six visits here, with its one win in ’06. Saints gave up TD/2-point conversion in last minute LW, losing at home to Raiders in game New Orleans led 24-10 in 3rd quarter. Giants won first opener in six years LW, but Cowboys were 10-17 on 3rd down with rookie QB. Big Blue lost last four home openers, allowing 28.8 ppg; they’re9-7 as home favorite last three years. Saints are 7-3-1 in last 11 games as an underdog, 1-7 vs spread in last eight road openers (0-6 in last six). Seven of Saints’ last eight AOs went over total; under is 10-6 in Giants’ last 16 HOs.

49ers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1)– Long travel on short week for 49ers, who opened Monday night at home with a shutout win; they’re 6-3 in last nine road openers, 3-8 in last 11 series games, with last meeting in ’13 playoffs. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven AOs. Carolina had extra days to prep after Thursday nite loss in Denver; they’re 2-4-1 as a favorite in home openers (under 14-6-1 in lsst 21). Panthers are 19-11-1 vs spread under Rivera coming off a loss; 49ers are 3-8 coming off a win the last two years; they pulled MNF upset at home LY, then went to Pittsburgh and lost 43-18 six days later- similar travel situation here. Carolina is 16-8-2 as a home favorite under Rivera; 49ers are 3-8 as road underdogs the last two seasons.

Bucs (1-0) @ Cardinals (1-0)– Tampa Bay averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt LW; three of their four TDs came on plays of 23+ yards. Bucs are 10-7 as road underdogs last 2+ years- they are 5-7 vs spread off a win. Arizona lost at home to Patriots’ backup QB LW, got ripped by GM next day; Arizona was +2 in turnovers but allowed Pats to convert 10-16 on 3rd down. Cardinals are 8-3 coming off a loss under Arians, 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite. Teams split last six series games; Tampa Bay is 3-2 in five visits here, with last one in ’10. Eight of last nine series totals were 37 or less. Non-divisional favorites were 5-7 vs spread in Week 1, 3-4 at home. Over is 19-6 in Cardinals’ last 25 home games.

Seahawks (1-0) @ Rams (0-1)– LA coaches already on hot seat after ugly Monday loss to rival 49ers. Keenum will start again at QB; doesn’t matter if Bob Waterfield plays, if they don’t block up front for him. First home game in Coliseum for Rams since 1979, against team coached by former USC coach Carroll, who also knows Coliseum well. Rams are 3-1 in last four series games; Seahawks lost last two visits to St Louis 28-26/34-31- they are 1-8 in last nine road openers (1-10 vs spread in last 11). Rams won three of last four home openers (over 5-2-1 in last eight). Under is 21-7 in Seahawks’ last 28 road openers. Seahawks didn’t score TD LW until last 0:31; Wilson has sprained ankle which appeared bad near end of Miami game, but he still led game-winning drive.

Colts (0-1) @ Broncos (1-0)– Denver had three extra days to prep after they beat Carolina in opener, in Siemian’s first NFL start; Broncos are 1-4-1 as home favorites under Kubiak. Denver had three turnovers (-2), allowed 157 yards, still upset Panthers. Colts were down 21-3 in home opener LW, rallied to lead 35-34 with 0:37 left, but gave up GW FG at end. . Indy is 7-6 as road underdogs under Pagano; 13-6 vs spread coming off a loss- they won eight of last nine series games; average total in last four, 53.8. Colts are 3-2 in last five visits here, with last win in 2010. Indy lost five of last six road openers; they’re 3-10-1 as an underdog in AOs, with eight of last 11 staying under the total. Last 5+ years, Denver is 31-21-2 vs spread coming off a win.

Falcons (0-1) @ Raiders (1-0)– Raiders won opener despite giving up 419 passing yards to Brees; Oakland ran ball for 167 yards, averaged 8.4 yards/pass. Last 8 years, Oakland is 6-13 as home favorite; they’ve been favored in just 4 of last 24 home games. Falcons are 10-6 as underdogs last two years, 5-4 on road; they gave up three TD plays of 23+ yards vs Bucs LW, scored only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Atlanta won last three series games by combined 82-20; Raiders’ last series win was in 2000. Falcons lost three of four visits here, winning 24-0 in ’08- they lost seven of last nine road openers (3-9 vs spread in last 12, under 10-2). Oakland is 3-8 in last 11 home openers; six of last nine went over.

Jaguars (0-1) @ Chargers (0-1)– Bolts blew 24-3 lead with 21:00 to play LW; they ran ball for 155 yards but KC threw for 330 against them- tough loss to bounce back from. Jaguars had ball in Packer territory in last minute with chance to win game; they held Rodgers to 5.7 yds/pass, but an ball for only 48 yards themselves. San Diego won last five series games (four by 18+); they won 31-25 (+5) at Gator Bowl LY. Jaguars lost last three visits here by 13-25-19 points. Jags lost seven of last eight road openers (1-5 vs spread in last six); under is 8-4 in last 12. Bolts won five of last six home openers- they’re 7-4 vs spread as favorite in HOs (under 11-2 in last 13). San Diego is 13-11 vs spread off a loss under coach McCoy.

Packers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-0)– Minnesota’s new dome opens here; they’re 2-10-1 in last 13 vs Green Bay- road team is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Pack won by 13-3-17 points in last three visits to Twin Cities. Bradford got first team reps in practice Wednesday; he probably gets his first Viking start here (25-37-1 career W-L record). Minnesota is 10-3 SU in last 13 regular season games, 14-2 vs spread in last 16. Last four years, Packers are 6-13 vs spread on artificial turf- they were outgained by 48 yards in win at Jacksonville LW; they averaged just 5.7 yds/pass. Minnesota is 9-3 as home dog last four years. Green Bay is 7-5 in last 12 games as a road favorite. Vikings lost five of last eight home openers, going 1-7 vs spread- under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 HOs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

Tepin did not appear to have her “A” game yesterday, but it did not matter as she beat the boys again winning the $1 million Woodbine Mile (G1), her eighth victory in a row and earning an automatic fees-paid starting spot in the gate for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), a race she won last year.

The brilliant mare won for the 13th time in 21 career starts, and while I thought this was her final prep for her defense of the Mile, she looks as if she will make one more start before the Breeders’ Cup.

Her connections said she will likely go in either the First Lady (G1) or the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 8.

“She’s won three Grade 1s at Keeneland,” said her owner Robert Masterson. “She likes to run. We’re better off running than working her. It’s a long time before the Breeders’ Cup.”

She returned $2.90 as the favorite, holding off longshot Tower of Texas by a half-length, the $2 exacta returning $21.90.

We head back to Canada this afternoon with two Breeders’ Cup Challenge races for juveniles on turf—the $250,000 Natalma (G1) and the $200,000 Summer (G2).

Trainer Mark Casse has dominated these races recently, winning four of the last six editions of the Natalma (and six overall) as well as saddling the winners of the last three runnings of the Summer.

He sends out four in today’s Natalma and a pair in the Summer but it looks like we can beat them.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $40,000N3L (1:30 ET)
#7 Match Up 7-5
#5 Chubby Master 5-2
#2 I'mbetterthangood 7-2
#4 Stone Crab 5-1

Analysis: Match Up tracked the early pace while doing a long a deep rail and finished evenly in a third place finish last out against $25,000 non-winners of three. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Gargan barn that is 21% winners first off the claim. He beat non-winners of two at Churchill Downs two back while in the Walsh barn in a gate to wire score. It took a while for this guy to beat winners but catches a soft looking group here.

Chubby Master tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out at this level. The colt was claimed out of the race by the Jacobson barn that is 17% winners first off the claim. He does not need to move forward much off his last effort to win in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 2,4,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 2,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 6 Md Sp Wt (4:09 ET)
#2 Fear No Evil 10-1
#3 In It for the Gold 6-5
#10 Recollection 5-1
#1 Spirit of the Dawn 8-1

Analysis: Fear No Evil makes her second career start here for the Albertrani barn that does not usually have them cranked up first out. This filly showed good early speed in her debut at the Spa over a wet track in a race taken off the turf. She dueled for the early lead and could not match strides with the winner late in a runner up finish, catching a racing strip that was playing to outside stalkers and closers. She figures to move forward off that effort. She is out of the stakes winner True Sensation ($308,486) who has dropped three winners.

In It For the Gold made a mild late bid to finish third in her debut at 8-1 and came back to run third last out in her second career out earning a speed fig generally good enough to win at this level. The RRod trainee gets an extra furlong here that she looks capable of handling. The 6-5 morning line sure seems light as there are several in here with some potential.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3,10
TRI: 2,3 / 1,2,3,10 / 1,2,3,4,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Woodbine:

WO Race 6 The Summer G2 (3:50 ET)
#7 Good Samaritan 5-2
#6 Conquest Fahrenheit 2-1
#3 Harlan's Harmony 3-1
#1 Conquest Sure Shot 10-1

Analysis: Good Samaritan ships in from New York where the colt made a good late rally to get up late and break his maiden in his debut for the Mott barn that does not usually have them fully cranked first out. The runner up and fifth place finisher came out of the race to graduate in their next starts. He is by Harlan's Holiday out of a stakes placed Pulpit mare and already proven going long on turf.

Conquest Fahrenheit prompted the early pace and drew off smartly to break his maiden in his debut by five lengths over yielding footing here going seven furlongs. The colt is bred to handle more ground, by Scat Daddy out of a Holy Bull mare that has dropped two other turf winners. Casse has won this race the last three years and this guy is going to be tough but our top pick is likely going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,3,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #9 Antebellum 8-1
R5: #10 Cats Halo 15-1
R5: #7 Love Blues 12-1
R6: #2 Fear No Evil 10-1
R6: #1 Spirit of the Dawn 8-1
R9: #8 Blame Jim 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dolphins head to Foxboro'

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots September 18, 1:00 EST

Miami Dolphins continue their tough road swing to start their season travelling to Foxboro to take on division rival New Engalnd Patriots. The Dolphins couldn't pull the outright upset up in Seattle but certainly hung in there falling 12-10 while cashing as 10.5 point underdogs. As for Patriots, they not only went on the road and beat the defending NFC West champion Cardinals as 9.5 point road underdogs, they did it without Tom Brady and the leagues best tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Dolphins' certainly look like a different team under new head coach Adam Gase but outsmarting sideline genius Bill Belichick in this AFC East tilt is a whole different ball game. The Patriots have won seven consecutive meetings by an average 19.9 PPG in front of the home audience and 13-of-16 at home in the Bellichik era with a profitable 11-5 ATS record against the betting line. Considering Miami’s overall underachieving ways recently vs a division opponent (1-8 ATS), it's skid in an AFC East opponent's back yard (0-7 ATS) were recommending laying the expect 6.5 points knowing Patriots have a profitable 11-4-3 ATS record as home chalk of seven or less, 6-2-1 ATS mark as home chalk off upset win as underdogs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Delaware County Fair

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 64 - Purse:$3667 - OHIO FAIR RACING CONFERENCE 3 YR. COLTS & GELDINGS 1ST DIVISION TOTAL PURSE $11,000 PERFECTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA & 1ST LEG PICK 3 WAGERING NEXT RACE PERFECTA NUMBERS & PAYOFF:__________$__________ TRIFECTA NUMBERS & PAYOFF:__________$_________ PICK 3 NUMBERS & PAYOFF:__________$__________
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 ONE LAST HUSTLE 4/1
# 6 POPPIN TAGS 5/2
# 2 LONE VALLEY SAM 7/2

All signs point to ONE LAST HUSTLE for the pick. Henry is racking up the wins recently. Outstanding win pct makes this harness racer our selection. When the starter calls, nice horses coming out of the 1 hole have more wins than normal. POPPIN TAGS - This harness racer and Beaver have a very good relationship. In the money percent for this match is high. This affair may be controlled by this gelding. Just one look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. LONE VALLEY SAM - With a 73 avg class stat, this race horse has one of the most solid class advantages in the group of horses. Lately Page has been blazing hot, which may give the edge to this gelding this time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

Tepin did not appear to have her “A” game yesterday, but it did not matter as she beat the boys again winning the $1 million Woodbine Mile (G1), her eighth victory in a row and earning an automatic fees-paid starting spot in the gate for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), a race she won last year.

The brilliant mare won for the 13th time in 21 career starts, and while I thought this was her final prep for her defense of the Mile, she looks as if she will make one more start before the Breeders’ Cup.

Her connections said she will likely go in either the First Lady (G1) or the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 8.

“She’s won three Grade 1s at Keeneland,” said her owner Robert Masterson. “She likes to run. We’re better off running than working her. It’s a long time before the Breeders’ Cup.”

She returned $2.90 as the favorite, holding off longshot Tower of Texas by a half-length, the $2 exacta returning $21.90.

We head back to Canada this afternoon with two Breeders’ Cup Challenge races for juveniles on turf—the $250,000 Natalma (G1) and the $200,000 Summer (G2).

Trainer Mark Casse has dominated these races recently, winning four of the last six editions of the Natalma (and six overall) as well as saddling the winners of the last three runnings of the Summer.

He sends out four in today’s Natalma and a pair in the Summer but it looks like we can beat them.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $40,000N3L (1:30 ET)
#7 Match Up 7-5
#5 Chubby Master 5-2
#2 I'mbetterthangood 7-2
#4 Stone Crab 5-1

Analysis: Match Up tracked the early pace while doing a long a deep rail and finished evenly in a third place finish last out against $25,000 non-winners of three. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Gargan barn that is 21% winners first off the claim. He beat non-winners of two at Churchill Downs two back while in the Walsh barn in a gate to wire score. It took a while for this guy to beat winners but catches a soft looking group here.

Chubby Master tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out at this level. The colt was claimed out of the race by the Jacobson barn that is 17% winners first off the claim. He does not need to move forward much off his last effort to win in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 2,4,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 2,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 6 Md Sp Wt (4:09 ET)
#2 Fear No Evil 10-1
#3 In It for the Gold 6-5
#10 Recollection 5-1
#1 Spirit of the Dawn 8-1

Analysis: Fear No Evil makes her second career start here for the Albertrani barn that does not usually have them cranked up first out. This filly showed good early speed in her debut at the Spa over a wet track in a race taken off the turf. She dueled for the early lead and could not match strides with the winner late in a runner up finish, catching a racing strip that was playing to outside stalkers and closers. She figures to move forward off that effort. She is out of the stakes winner True Sensation ($308,486) who has dropped three winners.

In It For the Gold made a mild late bid to finish third in her debut at 8-1 and came back to run third last out in her second career out earning a speed fig generally good enough to win at this level. The RRod trainee gets an extra furlong here that she looks capable of handling. The 6-5 morning line sure seems light as there are several in here with some potential.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3,10
TRI: 2,3 / 1,2,3,10 / 1,2,3,4,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Woodbine:

WO Race 6 The Summer G2 (3:50 ET)
#7 Good Samaritan 5-2
#6 Conquest Fahrenheit 2-1
#3 Harlan's Harmony 3-1
#1 Conquest Sure Shot 10-1

Analysis: Good Samaritan ships in from New York where the colt made a good late rally to get up late and break his maiden in his debut for the Mott barn that does not usually have them fully cranked first out. The runner up and fifth place finisher came out of the race to graduate in their next starts. He is by Harlan's Holiday out of a stakes placed Pulpit mare and already proven going long on turf.

Conquest Fahrenheit prompted the early pace and drew off smartly to break his maiden in his debut by five lengths over yielding footing here going seven furlongs. The colt is bred to handle more ground, by Scat Daddy out of a Holy Bull mare that has dropped two other turf winners. Casse has won this race the last three years and this guy is going to be tough but our top pick is likely going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,3,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #9 Antebellum 8-1
R5: #10 Cats Halo 15-1
R5: #7 Love Blues 12-1
R6: #2 Fear No Evil 10-1
R6: #1 Spirit of the Dawn 8-1
R9: #8 Blame Jim 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 2:55 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$7450 - WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 DIAL A CHIC 9/2
# 2 FYGI BROS 8/1
# 5 ABERFORTH 5/2

DIAL A CHIC is the most competitive bet in this race. Handicappers should notice that this standardbred runs with first time Lasix today. We're not going to pass on this gelding given one of the top driver-handler statistics around. The handicapping group keenly points out that when Beachy trains this race horse, the odds of finishing in the money go way up. FYGI BROS - Unquestionably will improve with the equipment change, second time hoppled today. With a 76 avg class rating, this contender has one of the most respectable class advantages in the field. ABERFORTH - With one of the most compelling drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this gelding out of the race. He's squaring off in good form, recording formidable TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent pick.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hazel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4800 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT PLACED 1ST, 2ND, OR 3RD IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS AT HAZEL PARK RACEWAY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 5 LOVE TRACTOR 5/2

# 4 PROUD KITTEN 9/2

# 1A FLATTER TALK 3/1

LOVE TRACTOR gets the edge as the bet in here. She has been racing soundly as of late while recording very solid Equibase Speed Figures. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this group of horses. PROUD KITTEN - Earning some good dough in dirt sprint events. Will most likely go to the front end and may never look back. FLATTER TALK - The trainer wheels this entrant back quickly to race again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lethbridge

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Stakes - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $58869 Class Rating: 79

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, CANADA QUARTER HORSE CUP FUTURITY - FOR TWO YEAR OLD QUARTER HORSES PREVIOUSLY NOMINATED.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 7 HONOR THE FAST MAN 3/1

# 4 COWBOY 109 2/1

# 1 HEZA RIOT 12/1

I've got to go with HONOR THE FAST MAN. Had one of the most respectable speed figs of this field in his last competition. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. Has been running solidly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. COWBOY 109 - Looks quite good against this group of horses in this race and will most likely be one of the early speedsters. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Stockwell running at this distance are the top in this field. HEZA RIOT - Looks to have a respectable class edge based on the latest company kept.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:15pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#5 SALSA DOG (ML=5/1)
#7 MAN ABOUT TOWN (ML=6/1)
#6 TAPKEE (ML=9/2)


SALSA DOG - The rider and handler combination have a lucrative return on investment when they combine forces. Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a strong contest on August 25th. MAN ABOUT TOWN - Using this jock/trainer combination is a good choice. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a strong effort on September 6th. TAPKEE - Ness moves this one here to Presque Isle Downs from Monmouth Park. Looking at the horse's past performance lines, he has shown the ability to win at different tracks. Is ranked number one in the field in earnings per start. A strong effort in this field will boost the lifetime total. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 80 to 82 to 92 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 NOPALITO (ML=4/1), #1 KILO (ML=6/1), #3 HOPPALA (IRE) (ML=8/1),

NOPALITO - You should normally wager against favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. You always think this equine has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but he fails frequently. KILO - Tough to put any dough on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. HOPPALA (IRE) - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed most every time.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #5 SALSA DOG on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:32 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STARTER ALLOWANCE $55,000.00 PURSE

#5 PAWLEYS EXPRESS
#3 DOUBLE DOSE
#2 RING KNOCKER
#1 KALABAKA

#5 PAWLEYS EXPRESS is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this allowance field, and has nice early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint. She's hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of her two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "first asking." Jockey Manuel Franco was in her irons for those two "board hit races," and is back today for his 3rd ride, gunning for a 2nd "Circle Trip!" #3 DOUBLE DOSE has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Monmouth Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:47pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#6 HOPEFAITHJOY (ML=6/1)
#3 GARDEN GAMES (ML=4/1)


HOPEFAITHJOY - This filly's last race was better than looked. She showed good early speed, dropped back a bit but held even through to the finish. Ran a lackluster race at Monmouth Park in the last race. Racing on a fast track puts this filly at the top of my contenders roll call. GARDEN GAMES - Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a nice effort in the last race within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SAINT BERNADINE (ML=4/5), #2 POP START (ML=7/2), #1 SOOKIE (ML=8/1),

SAINT BERNADINE - This filly won last time, but probably won't come back today versus tougher competition. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued equine. POP START - This racer hasn't shown much effort in the last two affairs. SOOKIE - Just cannot bet on this questionable contender. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on Sep 8th. Not probable that the speed figure she garnered on Nov 26th will be good enough in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HOPEFAITHJOY - The odds should be right to play this thoroughbred. There are some 'hidden' pluses in the last race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 HOPEFAITHJOY to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne: Sunday 9/18 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (19 - 34 / $94.60): BLISSFUL PANSY (10th)

Spot Play: PRINCESS SAGE (9th)


Race 1

(3) SPEEDY RENDEZVOUS made an uncharacteristic miscue last week. If the 3-year-old stays trotting he's the horse to beat. (2) BUNNIE HUNTER has a decent fair track record this year and could improve on the big track. (1) BANDS ARISTON gets the best post against weaker.

Race 2

(8) MIDNIGHT GANGSTER was the top driver's choice in a really weak field. (7) KENNY THE SWINGER has question marks coming into the race off the scratch. The pacer is one of few in the race who has shown a decent burst of speed. (5) AJ'S PRINCE pacer is 0 for 68 in his career; use underneath.

Race 3

(6) ANNAS LUCKY STAR two-year-old filly will look to stay unbeaten; short price. (5) DAISY LOU DUKE was really good two back but would need much more to get past the top choice. (1) SIS'S ELLIE MAE filly seems to lack stamina late but has hit the board in a good percentage of her starts.

Race 4

(1) GREEKONA snapped a long winless streak last race after finding a way through late. The 4-year-old might have gained some confidence. (3) GIRLS GIRLS GIRLS is very inconsistent from week to week. One of the 3-year-old filly's better efforts puts her in the mix. (4) HSLB MICHELLE will be tough to keep off the ticket with a trouble-free trip.

Race 5

In a really weak and inconsistent field, (5) FEEL MY PAIN picks up a good driver change and owns the fastest win at the track on the year. (7) SAGEBRUSH SAM also picks up a top driver. The effort two back would be good enough combined with a decent setup. (3) WAUKEGAN looked to be improving before the last two starts.

Race 6

(3) HOOSIERS FANTASY raced big last week against tougher. The pacer had nowhere to go late or the result could have been different. (6) DESIREE BELLA BELLA doesn't win often but was absolutely flying late last week. (2) SLEAZY DOES IT closed up a bunch of ground from a very tough spot into a slow middle half last race; threat.

Race 7

(5) TWINKLE LIKE ASTAR is tough to endorse on the top spot but finds a field full of question marks. The pacer will offer a big price for capable connections. (2) OUTLAWPOCKETROCKET has been knocking on the door at this level. The pacer should be closer turning for home this week. (4) SHHRAYRAY is due for a good effort any week now.

Race 8

(6) SAN ANTONIO ROSE filly owns the fastest win in the field and gets a decent post edge on the morning line favorite. (10) RAZZLEME DAZZLME was the driver's choice of three. The pacer might be looking to just make the final from the far outside. (1) DEE TUMBLEWEED gets sent out for a provisional pilot but appears to be improving every week.

Race 9

(6) PRINCESS SAGE will look to prove the win in the final last week was no fluke. The filly will likely still offer the better price and was impressive. (3) MY KIND OF DANCE had too much to do last week from far back. The filly will be out for revenge; threat. (4) FILLY FORTY was much improved last start in the consolation. A repeat of that effort puts the 2-year-old close.

Race 10

(9) BLISSFUL PANSY has been much improved for new connections; fires early. (3) REAL SHEILA pacing mare comes into the race off a decent victory. (8) FOX VALLEY WAVE filly could use a fast pace to close into for her best chance to hit the board.

Race 11

(3) EMMIA ROCKET will offer the best price of the contenders and could have more to offer. (8) ALWAYS KENZER takes a significant drop in competition. The pacer has just been racing evenly but should find this spot much more to his liking. (2) MIGHTY HOT SHOT always looks to be of the faster pacers in the race but rarely gets the job done; use underneath.

Race 12

(2) MAKE WAY gets a laughable morning line as the pacing mare has given the top choice all she could handle two weeks in a row. (3) PRETTY PLACE has been tremendous for the new barn; short price. (4) WINDOW WIPER has just been racing evenly and will offer low value; use caution.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (2nd) Bright Side Up, 8-1
(4th) Ready Strike, 7-2


Belterra Park (4th) Shadow Game, 3-1
(6th) Pesky Cat, 7-2


Churchill Downs (1st) Wilbo, 4-1
(8th) Wild Shot, 7-2


Fort Erie (2nd) Tucson, 3-1
(6th) Lord of Greatness, 6-1


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Loves the Crowd, 8-1
(7th) Hollywood Angel, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (1st) Who's That Chick, 4-1
(11th) Proud Mary Strikes, 7-2


Hastings (2nd) Sal, 5-1
(8th) Sweet Home, 5-1


Laurel (3rd) Fiveoclocksomwhere, 10-1
(10th) Multiflora, 6-1


Los Alamitos (4th) Oleanderpolarbear, 8-1
(9th) True Magic, 5-1


Monmouth Park (4th) Spurs N Bows, 5-1
(7th) Big Daddy B, 3-1


Mountaineer (1st) Ama Brat, 9-2
(4th) Killarney Rose, 4-1


Parx Racing (4th) Talk to Me, 4-1
(9th) All Summed Up, 7-2


Presque Isle Downs (3rd) Kilo, 6-1
(6th) Il Segreto, 6-1


Woodbine (1st) Princess Royal, 3-1
(8th) Red Lodge, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

September Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

Much like our waistlines after a tasty Labor Day barbeque, MLB rosters have expanded to accommodate September, the final month of the season. And as College Football and the NFL crash onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail.

The question is which ones can we count on and which ones figure to be candidates for offseason Weight Watchers meetings?

Check it out.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s September’s list.

Enjoy the games.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arrieta, Jake - 12-2 (8-1 H)

For nearly two full seasons, Arrieta has been as good as it gets in baseball as a starting pitcher. While strikeouts have been down a bit and walks are up of late, at this time it hard to find fault with a hurler who has opposing batters hitting below .200 against him and has a 2.84 ERA to start the month.

Cole, Gerrit - 14-3 (6-0 H)

The Pittsburgh ace has frankly had a mediocre injury-plagued season and on August 27th had an MRI on his elbow, which revealed no damage. If Pirates the are going to snare a third consecutive Wild Card bid, they will need the Cole of the past two years. Note: Cole’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of September.

*Grenike, Zack - 13-3 (7-1 H)

Greinke's ERA is higher than past year's but pitching in thinner air of Arizona has contributed to this. While the Diamondbacks have little too play for, expect Grienke to be tough as nails like usual.

Hamels, Cole - 12-5 (6-2 H)

Need a big game pitched in September? It’s hard to go wrong with Hamels, whose ERA of 2.91 is well below career mark of 3.26. Still owns lively fastball and changeup is knee-buckling. A true professional.

*Jimenez, Ubaldo - 12-1 (6-0 H)

Still toeing the rubber every five days or for Baltimore in spite of mid-sixes ERA. Baltimore has few options and Jimenez is not trustworthy in the bullpen either. Orioles need big month from their big man to reach the playoffs and this is his best month.

*Kershaw, Clayton - 12-3 (6-1 A)

Kershaw threw in simulated game on August 30 and later said "feeling really good" and if all goes well, the Dodgers hope Kershaw can pitch in September and beyond in some role, which only makes the Dodgers a bigger threat. Best pitcher in baseball.

Kluber, Corey - 10-3 (5-1 A)

Has been back to Cy Young form since the All-Star break with an ERA under 2.00 and Cleveland has won his last six outings. When he commands both sides of dish with fastball, for whatever reason, his curveball has more break. A true established ace for the Tribe trying to win the division.

Koehler, Tom - 10-5 (5-1 A)

Been very effective in a quiet way nationally, but has been extremely dependable for two months leading to this month for Miami, supplying six to seven solid innings per start. If he's throwing strikes inside to batters, he’s tough to hit. Note: Koehler’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of September.

Peavy, Jake - 11-3 (5-1 H)

Went on DL in late August with lower back strain. Had been working out of bullpen most of August and future status with San Francisco is as cloudy as the weather in the Bay.

*Price, David - 12-5 (7-2 H)

After a largely below season in Boston, Price has been much sharper in latter stages of August, which is what the Red Sox need. What has changed is Price became more effective in keeping the ball lower and is getting more fly ball outs as a power pitcher, which are genuinely more routine.

*Scherzer, Max - 11-4 (6-3 H)

After a somewhat slow start, Scherzer has been getting better and better and base hits allowed are well below innings pitched (128 vs. 190), yet walking few batters (45), especially compared to strikeouts (238). Back to pacing around mound like the king of the jungle.

*Shields, James - 13-4 (8-0 A)

It has been a wild ride for Shields this season, with numerous hideous outings blended in with several sharp ones. At this stage, hard to think the 34-year righty can duplicate the past seasons.

Strasburg, Stephen- 9-4 (5-1 A)

Starts the month on the DL after some very ugly starts last month. If Washington is to do anything in the postseason, Strasburg needs to regain early season form, which features moving fastball and big breaking curve.

*Zimmermann, Jordan - 11-4 (6-2 A)

If rehab assignments go well, September 10th is target date for return. Zimmermann has not been very effective for quite some time and easy to forget he had ERA of 2.45 in mid-May, compared to current 4.44.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Hellickson, Jeremy - 2-10 (1-5 H)

All things considered, Hellickson has not had a bad year in Philadelphia. However, upon closer inspection, most of his numbers are now near career norms and if that ends being the same this month, real bet against potential.

Leake, Mike - 5-10 (1-7 A)

The Cardinals right-hander has been a lot like his teams, when Leake has been good, he and St. Louis have generally won, when not they have too often lost badly. Cards are hoping not to see a repeat performance from the veteran.

Ross, Tyson - 3-11 (1-6 A)

Started on Opening Day and has not been seen since for San Diego with bum shoulder. Still trying to work way bad through rehab. Probably best to forget 2016.

*Sale, Chris - 2-12 (0-8 A)

It is almost unimaginable Sale could have a record like this in September, yet he does. Part of it is the White Sox offense is too unreliable and Sale's miscues end up being quite costly. Let's see what the final month brings for the big lefty.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pirates (74-74) at Reds (62-86)

Game: 4
Venue: Great American Ball Park
Date: September 18, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

CINCINNATI -- The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds conclude their season series on Sunday afternoon at Great American Ball Park. And, the Bucs are trying to keep their postseason chances alive without one of their key offensive and defensive components in left fielder Starling Marte.
Marte hasn't played since Sept. 5 due to lower back discomfort, a span of 12 games. Manager Clint Hurdle indicated on Friday that Marte would be available to play in one of the games in Saturday's doubleheader, but later retracted that statement after Marte had a setback.
"I've got no more comment about him being close," said Hurdle. "I probably shouldn't have said anything. Backs are a tricky thing."
Marte was batting .412 in eight games prior to being shelved. Although the Pirates offense has been productive of late in his absence, scoring 26 runs in the first three games of the Cincinnati series, Marte is missed.
Right-hander Ivan Nova will start for the Pirates in the series finale, making his 30th appearance of the season, which includes 24 starts. Nova's been on a roll of late, posting a 5-0 record and 2.41 ERA with 44 strikeouts and just three walks in his first eight starts with the Pirates since being acquired from the Yankees on Aug. 1.
Nova struck out 11 and gave up two runs (one earned) in his last start on Tuesday at Philadelphia, but received a no-decision.
He's made four career starts against Cincinnati, including his Pirates debut on Aug. 6, when he earned a 5-3 decision over Homer Bailey at PNC Park. Overall against the Reds, Nova is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA.
One of the surprise stories this season for the Reds has been right-hander Dan Straily, who is looking to finish the season on a positive note. Sunday will be his 32nd appearance this season and 29th start, which both are career highs.
Straily has faced the Pirates six times this season, including five starts, going 1-2 with a 3.12 ERA.
Cincinnati is Straily's third club since the start of Spring Training after he was waived and traded by two teams prior to Opening Day. He's found a home with the Reds, and leads them with 12 wins and 17 quality starts.
Straily has made 11 starts this season in which he's allowed three hits or fewer, a single-season franchise record since 1900 and tied with Cubs' ace Jake Arrieta for the most in the major leagues this season. Opponents are hitting just .219 against Straily, eighth-best in the National League. Since the All-Star break, Straily ranks among the NL leaders in victories (eight) and ERA (3.03).
Cincinnati has gone 30-28 since the All-Star break, but is trying not to limp toward the finish. That begins with pitching, and the Reds already have established a single-season mark for home runs allowed.
"You have to do special things to get special numbers," manager Bryan Price said. "Unfortunately it is one we're not proud of. It's not the ballpark either. We're not using that excuse. We had a lot of players here early that weren't ready to pitch at this level because of injuries. We have to get better or find guys who can pitch at this level.