MLB Betting Picks & Tips
Pittsburgh (-110) at Cincinnati; Total: 9
Gerrit Cole squares off with Robert Stephenson in the series finale at GABP. The Pirates continued their struggles yesterday with just one run off of Sal Romano and the bullpen. Today, their ace is on the mound, but it’s pretty clear that oddsmakers have little respect for Pittsburgh at this point with the small price and the pitching matchup.
Cole owns a 4.04 ERA with a 4.05 FIP and a 3.82 xFIP on the year. He’s on the verge of throwing his first 200-inning season since 2015 and should have at least three more starts to get there. Cole has seen a massive drop in his command this year with a HR/FB% that is more than double last season’s mark and has raised his career average to 9.8 percent. His K/BB rates are solid, but his home run rate is the reason why his ERA is north of 4. Cole allowed five runs in his last start. He worked eight shutout before that. He allowed five runs to Cincinnati the start before that after shutting Cincinnati out for seven innings. Cole has been racking up the strikeouts lately, so the stuff has been good. He has only allowed two home runs in his last five starts. The bad outings have been the result of variance on batted balls and in high-leverage spots.
To me, Cole looks like a guy to back today. The control hasn’t been ideal with nine walks over his last 20 innings, but he’s getting lots of swings and misses and strikeouts. Since the All-Star Break, Cole has 84 K in 79.1 innings with a 3.52/3.46/3.65 pitcher slash. He’s looking to end the season on a high note and he seems to be getting stronger, which is good after how last year went.
Robert Stephenson just isn’t as trustworthy. Stephenson has a 5.45 ERA with a 5.21 FIP and a 5.03 xFIP. This will be his ninth start of the year. Since basically joining the rotation full-time, he has a 3.98 ERA with a 4.41 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP, but he’s somehow managed to pitch around 30 walks in 43 innings. He hasn’t allowed a ton of hard contact in that span and has only allowed one home run over his last six starts and one relief appearance.
I’d look at the Pirates today as a side, but I’d also look at the under with the early Sunday start, the bad Pirates offense, and Cole, who seems to be in a groove.
Oakland (-110) at Philadelphia; Total: 9.5
Henderson Alvarez is back in the big leagues. Remember him? Threw a final day of the regular season no-hitter against the Tigers a few years ago for the Marlins. He’ll face the slumping Sean Manaea and the Oakland A’s in this one. Alvarez spent 2016 in the A’s system, but was never healthy enough to make any MLB appearances. He hasn’t pitched at the MLB level since 2015.
Manaea has seen a massive reversal of fortunes in terms of sequencing variance. He has a 4.65 ERA now with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP. He’s seen his LOB drop down to 69.2 percent. His strikeout rate has taken a tumble as well and his BABIP has gone back up. Since the start of August, Manaea has a 7.41 ERA with a 5.89 FIP and a 5.58 xFIP in his eight starts. He has a .391 BABIP against and a 62.1 percent LOB% in that span. If he was still missing bats, I’d bet on a regression of those numbers, but he’s not. He’s also allowed seven home runs. This is an early start for Oakland a long way from home and I don’t think that this is a matchup that they care too much about.
Henderson Alvarez worked three starts with the Phillies in the minors before getting the chance to make this start. Alvarez has reportedly added velocity, but it didn’t help him miss any bats in those three starts. He only had eight strikeouts in 19 innings. I don’t really know what to expect from him, but I’d be comfortable laying the Philadelphia price as an Oakland fade. The Phillies have a lot of young guys hoping to make an impact in the lineup. Oakland does, too, but this is an early start and they have to head to Detroit after the game. Situationally, this lines up nicely for the home team.
Milwaukee (-125) at Miami; Total: 9
Brandon Woodruff and Dillon Peters are the listed starters for this series finale in Milwaukee with the Marlins “hosting” the Brewers at Miller Park. With the damage done by Hurricane Irma and the clean-up efforts, this series is just being played in Milwaukee, so it has given the Brewers a bit of an advantage in their quest to sneak into the playoffs.
Woodruff has a 3.14/4.17/4.30 pitcher slash in his five starts covering 28.2 innings of work. Woodruff saw some regression in his LOB% in his last outing, but it still sits at 81.8 percent. Prior to his last outing, he had allowed just four runs on 17 hits in 23.2 innings of work. The Pirates got to him last time out, so we’ll have to see how the extreme ground ball pitcher bounces back. Outside of some nerves in his MLB debut, Woodruff has done an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a 61.5 percent or higher ground ball rate in his last three starts. That makes it tough for teams to score in today’s hitting environment.
Dillon Peters is making the big leagues look fairly easy. The small left-hander has a 2.50 ERA with a 3.71 FIP and a 3.59 xFIP over his first three career starts covering 18 innings. He’s issued a few too many walks, but has 18 strikeouts and hasn’t allowed a whole lot of hard-hit balls. Peters is also keeping the ball on the ground, with two-thirds of his batted balls hit on the ground. I think he’s one of those unfamiliar lefties that can have a ton of success his first time or two around MLB because of his size and arm angle. It’s hard not to have deception as a 5-foot-9 lefty.
Despite my concerns about balls in play and those hit on the ground, I think the under is the way to go here. Stringing together hits is not the preferred way to score runs anymore and it isn’t very easy in today’s homer-happy climate. I’d expect a tight, low-scoring ballgame here. I’d also look to play Milwaukee since the Marlins get to head home and get back to their families and friends after the game.
Los Angeles at Washington (-150); Total: 8
The Dodgers and Nationals square off in D.C. on Sunday Night Baseball. Hyun-Jin Ryu draws the unfortunate circumstance of pitching against Stephen Strasburg in this one. Ryu has worked 117.2 innings after being limited to just over 30 innings last season. He missed all of 2015. I’m a bit worried about guys like that late in the season because there can be a lot of issues, ranging from injuries to simple fatigue.
Ryu doesn’t exhibit any of those concerns, though. In the first half, opposing hitters batted .277/.338/.512. In the second half, they are only batting .221/.308/.346. Ryu’s walk rate is up, though, and he’s been fortunate to strand over 85 percent of his baserunners. I’m not sure if that’s a metric that will regress over his next three starts, but it certainly is something to watch.
If Stephen Strasburg hadn’t missed so much time, he’d probably be in the NL Cy Young conversation. Strasburg has a 2.64/2.79/3.25 pitcher slash on the year and 182 strikeouts in 156.2 innings of work. In his five starts since coming off of the DL, Strasburg has allowed just two runs on 21 hits with a 41/4 K/BB ratio in 35 innings. Obviously there are some regression stats here, like a 97.5 percent LOB% and a .256 BABIP against, but Strasburg has been locating and commanding really well since coming back from the injury.
This is a big spot in primetime and a possible NLCS preview, so I would expect both teams to be fully engaged. I’m not sure Ryu has enough bullets to go toe-to-toe with Strasburg given how he is pitching right now, but laying -150 against the Dodgers isn’t +EV. It’s the way I would go, but this is probably a stay away game, with better betting options in the Green Bay vs. Atlanta game.
The Dodgers visit the Phillies tomorrow and the Nationals are idle, so there isn’t much in the way of situational angles.
