Sunday 8/3/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Dave Cokin

Sunday Bonus Play 1:35 PM MLB

(967) SEATTLE MARINERS at (968) BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Take: (967) SEATTLE MARINERS -105

I knew as soon as I saw the opener on this game that the number wouldn’t hold. It’s pretty easy for me to identify games where the statheads are going to line up on the same side, and early movement on these games is close to inevitable. So the Mariners are now laying a few pennies, and I would not be surprised to see this get bumped a little higher as we get closer to game time.

It’s a funny thing about luck. Those of us who are into the metrics don’t have a tough time isolating pitchers who are getting fortunate or vice versa, and where regressions or progressions to the norm are inevitable. The difficulty is determining when this is going to take place, and that’s guesswork. I learned my lesson the hard way on this with a couple of pitchers last year and the year before. This season, I made up my mind to at least try and wait for the worm to turn before getting involved.

Chris Tillman fits as one of those pitchers whose profile screamed regression, but if you were trying to beat this guy on that factor, you kissed a load of cash goodbye all of last season and a good portion of this campaign as well. Despite really run of the mill data, Tillman just kept on winning. But things have finally started to swing the other way. Tillman is now not winning, and it can even be argued that he’s gotten a little unlucky in a few recent starts. But the bottom line is that it’s no longer a futile endeavor to try and get the best of Tillman.

Hisashi Iwakuma has a substantial advantage here on the pitching data. It’s really not especially close. But just betting a game on the starting pitching is not a good road to travel. Ignoring other meaningful data is not a good path to success. In this game, I see some other variables that indicate the Mariners.

No doubt the Orioles have the better offense, but I don’t think it’s a huge gap. I’ll submit the Mariners are right now the best team they’ve been in years. They just upgraded center field with the addition of Austin Jackson. Kendrys Morales has been struggling with the stick, but he had two hits last night, including a critical single in the eighth inning, and that could be a buy signal. They’ve upgraded offensively at shortstop with Chris Taylor taking the job away from Brad Miller. Maybe most importantly, it’s starting to look as though Dustin Ackley has arrived. He’s flourishing in the two-hole right now and that’s a very big deal as it means more RBI opportunities for Robinson Cano.

Seattle is now in position where if they can hang tough for seven innings and then turn games into bullpen battles, they’re going to generally have an advantage. I think this team is a bit underrated right now and after winning with them last night, I’m prepared to fire right back on the Mariners here.
 
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Jim Feist

MLB Comp Pick for Sunday, August 3, 2014: 2:10 PM ET

MLB (973) TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS (974) HOUSTON ASTROS

Take: (973) TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Reason: Your free pick for Sunday, August 3rd, 2014, comes in the American League as Toronto and the Astros meet in Houston. Houston is a good offensive park and a great Toronto offense is in town. Toronto is a powerhouse on offense, 5th in baseball in runs scored, 4th in slugging and 8th in on base percentage. Houston has a losing record at home while Toronto has a winning road mark. Th Blue Jays are 7-1 against a team with a losing record and 5-1 against righties. Starter Marcus Stroman (7-2, 3.03 ERA) has been sharp, riding a 3-game win streak. Opponents hit .232 off him. The Astros are 31-64 in their last 95 home games. Astros starter Scott Feldman doesn't get much run support and is 4-8 with an ERA over four. The Astros are 22-65 in their last 87 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Blue Jays!
 
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Art Aronson

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians

1* Bonus Play on the Texas Rangers -109

The visiting Rangers will go with Yu Darvish (10-6, 2.90 ERA) who has won two of his last three starts. Darvish pitched seven innings of two run ball to beat the Yankees on Monday. The Japanese born hurler has a 3.79 ERA in three games started against Cleveland. The Tribe will go with Trevor Bauer (4-6, 4.35 ERA); Bauer was hit hard in last outing, giving up five runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Mariners. Note Bauer gave up four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings his only start versus Texas. This is a clear pitching mismatch, note that of the 57 outs Darvish has recorded against the Indians, 30 have been via strikeout. Darvish is the only Texas pitcher to beat Cleveland for a reason this season, he is that good. This line seems fishy to me, I think Darvish is severly undervalued in this spot.

AAA Sports
 
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MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, August 3

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SAN FRANCISCO (59 - 51) at NY METS (53 - 57) - 1:10 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. BARTOLO COLON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 67-77 (-23.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 59-67 (-24.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 23-13 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
COLON is 33-19 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLON is 18-9 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLON is 33-19 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-21 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-21 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-11 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 57-45 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 38-20 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 46-65 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 18-34 (-13.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 97-118 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 97-118 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 25-41 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 22-37 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 10-30 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
COLON is 70-61 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 (+3.1 Units) against NY METS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. NY METS since 1997
BUMGARNER is 2-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

BARTOLO COLON vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
COLON is 2-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.1 units)

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CINCINNATI (55 - 55) at MIAMI (54 - 56) - 1:10 PM
MIKE LEAKE (R) vs. JACOB TURNER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 54-56 (+3.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 56-57 (+12.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 683-756 (+54.9 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 620-700 (+38.9 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 495-545 (+45.6 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 382-330 (+67.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 215-175 (+44.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.
TURNER is 2-11 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against MIAMI this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

MIKE LEAKE vs. MIAMI since 1997
LEAKE is 2-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

JACOB TURNER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
TURNER is 1-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.571.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (49 - 62) at WASHINGTON (59 - 49) - 1:35 PM
COLE HAMELS (L) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 122-151 (-27.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-25 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 56-75 (-24.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 88-117 (-29.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HAMELS is 22-30 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 63-60 (-25.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 22-30 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 27-27 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-11 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 383-359 (+43.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
HAMELS is 11-2 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 28-29 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
STRASBURG is 25-28 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 25-28 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 12-16 (-12.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (-0.6 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.1 Units)

COLE HAMELS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HAMELS is 15-6 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.075.
His team's record is 21-8 (+8.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 12-17. (-6.0 units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
STRASBURG is 3-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 0.929.
His team's record is 7-2 (+4.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-2. (+5.0 units)

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MILWAUKEE (61 - 50) at ST LOUIS (58 - 51) - 2:15 PM
MATT GARZA (R) vs. JOHN LACKEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 84-149 (-48.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday since 1997.
MILWAUKEE is 66-89 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 130-82 (+27.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 405-279 (+56.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 26-12 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 24-15 (+12.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 31-24 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 60-46 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 49-49 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 36-33 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 26-31 (-10.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-5 (-0.5 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.2 Units)

MATT GARZA vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GARZA is 3-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.582.
His team's record is 4-5 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-3. (+3.1 units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
LACKEY is 1-0 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (46 - 63) at LA DODGERS (63 - 48) - 4:10 PM
EDWIN JACKSON (R) vs. JOSH BECKETT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 112-160 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 17-42 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 12-30 (-16.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-80 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 112-160 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 33-52 (-14.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 53-91 (-22.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSON is 17-36 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 13-32 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 17-36 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 12-33 (-20.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 24-7 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 30-32 (-10.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BECKETT is 10-17 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BECKETT is 11-19 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
BECKETT is 10-17 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 1-1 (+0.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
JACKSON is 3-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 3-3 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

JOSH BECKETT vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
BECKETT is 2-3 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.89 and a WHIP of 1.164.
His team's record is 3-3 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)

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PITTSBURGH (59 - 51) at ARIZONA (48 - 63) - 4:10 PM
FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 156-122 (+28.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 154-121 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 126-100 (+23.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 86-54 (+22.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 48-63 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 17-27 (-11.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
ARIZONA is 22-33 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 38-45 (-15.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 48-63 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+1.2 Units) against ARIZONA this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. ARIZONA since 1997
LIRIANO is 0-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

TREVOR CAHILL vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
CAHILL is 2-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 4.07 and a WHIP of 1.132.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.1 units)

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ATLANTA (58 - 53) at SAN DIEGO (50 - 60) - 4:10 PM
AARON HARANG (R) vs. TYSON ROSS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 17-32 (-15.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 32-32 (-8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN DIEGO is 25-12 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 19-11 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 73-40 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
HARANG is 17-10 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games in August games since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 37-48 (-13.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-3 (+0.7 Units) against ATLANTA this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

AARON HARANG vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
HARANG is 6-5 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.212.
His team's record is 8-8 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-4. (+6.8 units)

TYSON ROSS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

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TEXAS (43 - 67) at CLEVELAND (55 - 55) - 1:05 PM
YU DARVISH (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 43-67 (-25.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 41-63 (-23.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 32-46 (-14.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 27-39 (-14.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CLEVELAND is 147-126 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 83-52 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 55-40 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 141-120 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 54-30 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 79-43 (+29.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 42-15 (+22.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 19-40 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 30-44 (-27.6 Units) against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-1 (+4.1 Units) against TEXAS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

YU DARVISH vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
DARVISH is 1-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.526.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

TREVOR BAUER vs. TEXAS since 1997
BAUER is 0-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 5.69 and a WHIP of 1.106.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

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SEATTLE (57 - 53) at BALTIMORE (61 - 48) - 1:35 PM
HISASHI IWAKUMA (R) vs. CHRIS TILLMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 62-48 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 99-81 (+19.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 55-46 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 46-33 (+17.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 31-17 (+16.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 27-19 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 13-7 (+9.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TILLMAN is 15-9 (+7.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 32-20 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 14-4 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 20-10 (+13.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 21-15 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 31-22 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SEATTLE is 21-14 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
SEATTLE is 28-21 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SEATTLE is 19-13 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
SEATTLE is 24-17 (+10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
IWAKUMA is 39-27 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
IWAKUMA is 38-26 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 90-138 (-71.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 13-25 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-2 (+2.9 Units) against SEATTLE this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

HISASHI IWAKUMA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
IWAKUMA is 0-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.083.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. SEATTLE since 1997
TILLMAN is 5-0 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 0.909.
His team's record is 5-0 (+5.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.1 units)

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LA ANGELS (65 - 44) at TAMPA BAY (54 - 56) - 1:40 PM
JERED WEAVER (R) vs. JAKE ODORIZZI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 65-44 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 731-717 (+61.7 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 433-357 (+56.3 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 31-13 (+16.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LA ANGELS are 32-12 (+16.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TAMPA BAY is 54-56 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 27-31 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 27-31 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome this season.
TAMPA BAY is 27-34 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-20 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 4-2 (+1.8 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

JERED WEAVER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
WEAVER is 4-4 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.072.
His team's record is 5-5 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-6. (-2.5 units)

JAKE ODORIZZI vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
ODORIZZI is 0-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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MINNESOTA (49 - 60) at CHI WHITE SOX (54 - 57) - 2:10 PM
KYLE GIBSON (R) vs. JOSE QUINTANA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 54-57 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 25-24 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 51-56 (+7.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 28-27 (+9.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
MINNESOTA is 41-37 (+19.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 59-78 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-9 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 299-302 (+35.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 54-59 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 54-70 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 54-51 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 23-39 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 50-69 (-20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 7-6 (+0.5 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

KYLE GIBSON vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
GIBSON is 0-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.411.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JOSE QUINTANA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
QUINTANA is 2-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 5.36 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 3-5 (-3.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.6 units)

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TORONTO (60 - 52) at HOUSTON (46 - 65) - 2:10 PM
MARCUS STROMAN (R) vs. SCOTT FELDMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 60-52 (+7.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 46-36 (+10.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 43-100 (-41.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 49-90 (-28.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 49-90 (-28.8 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-99 (-38.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 14-50 (-23.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
FELDMAN is 32-44 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
FELDMAN is 32-44 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
FELDMAN is 16-26 (-16.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
FELDMAN is 5-19 (-13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FELDMAN is 3-14 (-13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-3 (+1.1 Units) against TORONTO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

MARCUS STROMAN vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

SCOTT FELDMAN vs. TORONTO since 1997
FELDMAN is 1-4 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.15 and a WHIP of 1.283.
His team's record is 2-5 (-3.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.3 units)

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KANSAS CITY (56 - 53) at OAKLAND (67 - 42) - 4:05 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. SCOTT KAZMIR (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 67-42 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 139-80 (+36.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 278-205 (+64.7 Units) against the money line in August games since 1997.
OAKLAND is 14-3 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season.
OAKLAND is 40-17 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 65-38 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 174-119 (+48.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 157-102 (+43.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 78-54 (+20.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 32-19 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
KAZMIR is 21-3 (+16.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
KAZMIR is 14-3 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KAZMIR is 16-4 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
KAZMIR is 72-46 (+26.1 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
KAZMIR is 67-57 (+24.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 71-65 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 63-59 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 38-27 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 71-59 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SHIELDS is 20-8 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 23-9 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 11-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 29-13 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 20-9 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 11-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 9-2 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 (+1.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.2 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SHIELDS is 5-4 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.193.
His team's record is 7-6 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-8. (-4.2 units)

SCOTT KAZMIR vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
KAZMIR is 4-5 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 5.15 and a WHIP of 1.538.
His team's record is 7-8 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-6. (+2.2 units)

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NY YANKEES (56 - 53) at BOSTON (49 - 61) - 8:05 PM
DAVID PHELPS (R) vs. CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 29-34 (-11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
BOSTON is 49-62 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 75-83 (-28.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 5-12 (-8.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
BOSTON is 27-31 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BOSTON is 8-14 (-12.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
BOSTON is 19-32 (-17.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 45-53 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 35-43 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 31-41 (-17.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 26-33 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BOSTON is 23-31 (-11.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 193-187 (-47.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
BUCHHOLZ is 11-18 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 7-5 (+1.7 Units) against BOSTON this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.3 Units)

DAVID PHELPS vs. BOSTON since 1997
PHELPS is 1-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.019.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.1 units)

CLAY BUCHHOLZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BUCHHOLZ is 5-6 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.12 and a WHIP of 1.564.
His team's record is 5-8 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-1.0 units)

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COLORADO (44 - 66) at DETROIT (60 - 47) - 1:05 PM
JORGE DE LA ROSA (L) vs. ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 44-66 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 17-38 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 24-46 (-20.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 11-26 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 44-66 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 29-48 (-20.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 92-168 (-46.8 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
DETROIT is 13-1 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.
DE LA ROSA is 34-17 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DE LA ROSA is 6-0 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DE LA ROSA is 13-1 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DE LA ROSA is 34-16 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DE LA ROSA is 22-4 (+20.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DE LA ROSA is 10-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DE LA ROSA is 17-8 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 158-122 (-16.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-27 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
DETROIT is 55-49 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-27 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 44-37 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 27-30 (-15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SANCHEZ is 42-43 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SANCHEZ is 41-42 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against COLORADO this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

JORGE DE LA ROSA vs. DETROIT since 1997
DE LA ROSA is 1-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 7.86 and a WHIP of 1.582.
His team's record is 1-3 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. COLORADO since 1997
SANCHEZ is 3-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.20 and a WHIP of 1.012.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)
 
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Steve Janus

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox

Sunday's Free MLB Pick ---Chicago White Sox -165

This is a great spot to back the White Sox at home with Jose Quintana on the mound. Quintana has a strong 3.23 ERA and 1.186 WHIP over 9 home starts this season and a sizzling 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. He's faced the Twins on two separate occasions this season and both times has allowed just two earned runs. Even with a loss yesterday the White Sox have been playing well of late. Chicago is 6-3 over their last 9 games and are swinging a red-hot bat. The White Sox are averaging 7 runs while hitting 3.53 with a .388 OBP over their last 7 games.

Key Trends - Minnesota is just 9-24 in their last 33 games as an underdog of +151 to +200 and a mere 2-9 in their last 11 in this situation on the road. Chicago is 24-7 in their last 31 as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-1 in their last 7 following a loss.

System - Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a losing team are a 49-7 (88%) against the money line playing on Sunday over the last 5 seasons (perfect 6-0 in 2014). BET THE WHITE SOX -165!
 
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Scott Spreitzer

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Bonus Play St. Louis Cardinals -126

I'm recommending a play on the Cardinals on Sunday. St. Louis won yesterday with one of their two new arms, Justin Masterson. The former Cleveland Indian started well and gave the Cards 6 innings of work, but didn't quite shut the Brewers down like the Redbirds were hoping. Instead, the Cards out-scored Milwaukee in the 9-7 win. The bats finally look to be coming around for St. Louis, scoring 19 runs over their last three games. In fact, the Cards hit .280 as a team with 11 extra-base hits in the three contests, combined. Today, they'll face Matt Garza, who owns decent overall numbers on the season, but has not pitched well on the road. That's been a problem for the righty over the last few seasons. Add in his struggles in a couple outings against the Cards in 2014 and I believe Garza is in trouble again. The Redbirds will send recently acquired John Lackey to the mound. Lackey closed his time in Boston with three straight strong starts and faces a Milwaukee squad averaging just 3.6 rpg in road day games against righties. The Brewers are on a 2-6 slide when Garza starts on the road, while the Cards have been busting righties at home long-term, currently on a 70-31 winning run. I believe they'll add one more in the win column and I'm backing the Cardinals on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
 
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May 19, 2007
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Doc’s Sports

Bonus Play

Take #964 San Diego Padres -127 over Atlanta Braves (Sunday, 4:10pm EST)

Not long ago, the San Diego Padres couldn’t score a run if their lives depended on it. They were shut out on a regular basis and we’re averaging less than three runs a contest for the season. But that’s all changed since the All-Star break. The Pads have been tearing the cover off of the ball and are averaging over five runs per game since the break – tops in the league. That includes 10 runs on Friday night at home versus the Braves, when they pounded out a whopping 20 hits. We probably won’t see production quite that good again, but the team is swinging it well and that’s good news for Tyson Ross. The right-hander makes his 24th start of the season on Sunday afternoon in what has been a sensation 2014 campaign. Ross was named to the NL All-Star team and currently has a tidy 2.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He’s been amazing in Petco Park with a 1.86 ERA and is holding opposing hitters to a bleak .189 batting average. The Braves lineup isn’t anything special and it was a bit surprising they didn’t go after a big bat before the trade deadline. Aaron Harang goes for the Braves and seems to be wearing down a bit as the season goes on. His overall ERA isn’t too bad, but his strikeout rate has been declining and his walk rate increasing. That’s a telltale sign of some regression, and the red hot Padres lineup should be able to take advantage. This line has factored in a lot of the above points, but I still think it’s a tad short. Take San Diego in this one.
 
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May 19, 2007
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Marc Lawrence

MLB

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets

New York Mets

Edges - Mets: Colon 12-5 last seventeen home team starts during August, and 24 strikeouts and 4 walks last four starts. Giants: Bumgarner 0-5 last five team starts during August. With Colon's home ERA (2.62) more than two runs per game better than his away ERA (4.95) this season, we recommend a 1-unit play on the N.Y. Mets.
 
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May 19, 2007
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Rocky Atkinson (Rocketman)

Chicago Cubs @ LA Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +116

The Chicago Cubs travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. The Chicago Cubs are 46-63 overall this year while the LA Dodgers are 63-48 overall on the season. LA Dodgers have won 7 of their past 8 games overall. LA Dodgers are allowing only 2.9 runs per game their past seven games overall. Edwin Jackson is 5-11 with a 5.72 ERA overall this year, 1-7 with a 5.97 ERA on the road this season and 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA his last 3 starts. Josh Beckett is 6-5 with a 2.82 ERA overall this year and has a 3.22 ERA at home this season. LA Dodgers are 6-2 at home vs Chicago Cubs the past 3 years. Dodgers should blow Jackson out. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers on the Run line today!
 
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May 19, 2007
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Teyas Sports

FREE PICK BRAVES +

TEYA'S DID YOU KNOW? WHEN UMP JERRY MEALS IS BEHIND HOME PLATE (JAYS @ ASTROS TODAY) THE OVER IS 37-18-4 HIS LAST 59 GAMES CALLING BALLS AND STRIKES.
 

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