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Sunday 8/27/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter BuzzKill
- Start date
Sunday's NFL Week 3 Preseason Betting Primer
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 43)
About the Bears
The spotlight is growing on the battle between expensive free agent Mike Glennon and first round pick Mitch Trubisky. As both took reps with the first-unit offense during practice this week. It is expected that Glennon will play the first half and Trubisky will take over at halftime.
Danny Trevathan is making the trip to Tennessee but coaches haven’t let word leak if he is going to dress. The inside linebacker hasn’t played since rupturing his patellar tendon last November.
The Bears are 1-1 straight up and against the spread, so far this preseason and the Over has cashed in both games.
About the Titans
The Titans have no question marks at quarterback with Marcus Mariota firmly entrenched and looking productive. In two drives versus the Panthers last weekend, he lead the offense to 10 points. Mariota is expected to play the entire first half at least.
Titans wide receivers Eric Decker, Corey Davis, Harry Douglas will not play, however, Tajae Sharpe will make his debut. Sharpe, started 10 games as a rookie last season, has been recovering from June surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot.
DeMarco Murray has been nursing a hamstring injury and while he has been practicing Titans head coach Mike Mularkey was noncommittal Friday about last season’s AFC rushing leader playing against the Bears.
Line Moves
The Titans opened as 3-point chalk and have been bet up a full point to 4. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and has dropped down an even 43.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3, 44.5)
About the Bengals
After a disappointing Week Two for Marvin Lewis and company the Bengals look to rebound in the nation's capital against Washington. Injuries have hindered the Bengals ability to field full units with George Iloka, Dre Kirkpatrick, Giovani Bernard and first round pick John Ross yet to take to the field in a preseason game.
Lewis has stressed he wants to see players get a run before the regular season starts, “I want them to get their wind,” Lewis said.
Cincinnati is expected to play its starting unit for at least the full first half against Washington.
About the Redskins
Head coach Jay Gruden told reporters on Friday he expects players to play ‘a half at least’ on Sunday and has no plans to play starters in Thursday’s fourth and final preseason game at Tampa Bay.
Washington’s offense has struggled scoring with just three total points in their first two preseason games against the opponents’ first-team defense and that field goal came after a fumbled punt and the offense went three and out.
Jordan Reed is expected to make his first start of the preseason after battling a strained toe.
Line Moves
No movement on the line or the total in this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 43)
About the 49ers
San Francisco’s starters are expected to play the entire first half, lead by Bryan Hoyer. Rookie C.J. Beathard has been making great strides during camp and appears to have taken over the backup spot from Matt Barkley. Beathard has looked good through two preseason games (211 passing yards, three touchdowns and no picks), but Shanahan would have to be supremely confident that the 3rd round pick is ready to be a backup before the 49ers let go of the veteran Barkley. Expect them both to get reps in the second half.
The 49ers are 1-1 straight up and against the spread, so far this preseason and the Over has easily cashed in the both games.
About the Vikings
The Vikings play their first home game of the preseason Sunday and their offense could use some home cooking. Minnesota’s first team offense led by Sam Bradford sputtered against Buffalo before moving the chains and finding chunk plays both on the ground and through the air in Seattle. However, they’ve only been able to put up three points, a 29-yard field goal in two games.
Highly touted Dalvin Cook will start his third straight preseason game for the Vikings and Sunday will be the first game action for free-agent from Oakland Latavius Murray.
Minnesota won both of their 2016 home preseason games.
Line Moves
The Vikings opened as 3-point home chalk and that wasn’t large enough and the line has been raise to 4. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and has been bet down to an even 43.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 43)
About the Bears
The spotlight is growing on the battle between expensive free agent Mike Glennon and first round pick Mitch Trubisky. As both took reps with the first-unit offense during practice this week. It is expected that Glennon will play the first half and Trubisky will take over at halftime.
Danny Trevathan is making the trip to Tennessee but coaches haven’t let word leak if he is going to dress. The inside linebacker hasn’t played since rupturing his patellar tendon last November.
The Bears are 1-1 straight up and against the spread, so far this preseason and the Over has cashed in both games.
About the Titans
The Titans have no question marks at quarterback with Marcus Mariota firmly entrenched and looking productive. In two drives versus the Panthers last weekend, he lead the offense to 10 points. Mariota is expected to play the entire first half at least.
Titans wide receivers Eric Decker, Corey Davis, Harry Douglas will not play, however, Tajae Sharpe will make his debut. Sharpe, started 10 games as a rookie last season, has been recovering from June surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot.
DeMarco Murray has been nursing a hamstring injury and while he has been practicing Titans head coach Mike Mularkey was noncommittal Friday about last season’s AFC rushing leader playing against the Bears.
Line Moves
The Titans opened as 3-point chalk and have been bet up a full point to 4. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and has dropped down an even 43.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3, 44.5)
About the Bengals
After a disappointing Week Two for Marvin Lewis and company the Bengals look to rebound in the nation's capital against Washington. Injuries have hindered the Bengals ability to field full units with George Iloka, Dre Kirkpatrick, Giovani Bernard and first round pick John Ross yet to take to the field in a preseason game.
Lewis has stressed he wants to see players get a run before the regular season starts, “I want them to get their wind,” Lewis said.
Cincinnati is expected to play its starting unit for at least the full first half against Washington.
About the Redskins
Head coach Jay Gruden told reporters on Friday he expects players to play ‘a half at least’ on Sunday and has no plans to play starters in Thursday’s fourth and final preseason game at Tampa Bay.
Washington’s offense has struggled scoring with just three total points in their first two preseason games against the opponents’ first-team defense and that field goal came after a fumbled punt and the offense went three and out.
Jordan Reed is expected to make his first start of the preseason after battling a strained toe.
Line Moves
No movement on the line or the total in this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 43)
About the 49ers
San Francisco’s starters are expected to play the entire first half, lead by Bryan Hoyer. Rookie C.J. Beathard has been making great strides during camp and appears to have taken over the backup spot from Matt Barkley. Beathard has looked good through two preseason games (211 passing yards, three touchdowns and no picks), but Shanahan would have to be supremely confident that the 3rd round pick is ready to be a backup before the 49ers let go of the veteran Barkley. Expect them both to get reps in the second half.
The 49ers are 1-1 straight up and against the spread, so far this preseason and the Over has easily cashed in the both games.
About the Vikings
The Vikings play their first home game of the preseason Sunday and their offense could use some home cooking. Minnesota’s first team offense led by Sam Bradford sputtered against Buffalo before moving the chains and finding chunk plays both on the ground and through the air in Seattle. However, they’ve only been able to put up three points, a 29-yard field goal in two games.
Highly touted Dalvin Cook will start his third straight preseason game for the Vikings and Sunday will be the first game action for free-agent from Oakland Latavius Murray.
Minnesota won both of their 2016 home preseason games.
Line Moves
The Vikings opened as 3-point home chalk and that wasn’t large enough and the line has been raise to 4. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and has been bet down to an even 43.
Sunday's NFL Best Bet
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Odds: San Francisco (+4) vs. Minnesota (-4); Total 42
Both San Francisco and Minnesota are coming off defeats a week ago during Week 2 of the preseason, and with this game being the last time many of the starters for both sides see the field before the games count, getting in positive work will be a must. Minnesota is looking to rebound after a tough year in 2016 hurt them from the get-go, while San Francisco has a new regime in the management suites and would love to see some giant steps forward taken this year en route to having a winning 49ers franchise again.
It's not going to be an easy road for either club given some of the powerhouses they've got to deal with in their respective divisions (Green Bay, Seattle), but this week's dress rehearsal game could end up going a long way into showing bettors what to expect from Minnesota and San Francisco this season.
Oddly enough, this game has one of the bigger point spreads for “dress rehearsal” week and it suggests that the 49ers may be an organization still stuck as cellar dwellers in the NFL this year. Only the Jets – long believed to be tanking 2017 away – and a Andrew Luck-less Colts team are catching more points then the 49ers this week with starters across the league getting the bulk of playing time. What that says about a 49ers team with a young regime trying to turn the page in 2017 remains to be seen, but chances are I won't be discussing too many best bet articles with the 49ers as a heavily-backed public side.
A QB rotation of Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, and C.J. Beathard won't inspire much faith from anyone, but given how their season could end up going, all three of these guys could see the field in the regular season, meaning that tonight's game is rather big for all three involved.
Minnesota doesn't exactly have their own deep pool of QB's with Teddy Bridgewater still hurt, but they are excited to show off new toy in RB Dalvin Cook. Minnesota is a team that's built to win with their defense, and having a young guy like Cook who can hopefully carry the load from them like Adrian Peterson did in his younger days, should help Minnesota become a playoff team once again.
But that doesn't necessarily mean laying the four points here is the best option, as Minnesota – a team decimated by preseason injuries a year ago – does not want the same thing to happen to them in 2017. That means as much as bettors want to believe Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal spot, I doubt the Vikings will follow that idea to it's core and could make it another early night for plenty of their starters.
That's why, I believe the value lies with the San Francisco 49ers in this spot as they've got multiple QB's vying for a position, among other position battles they've got going on, and with basically all the support going Minnesota's way here, I've got no problem being in the minority.
VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show about 90% of the bets coming Minnesota's way here, yet the line really hasn't moved. All week this game has been lined at either -4 with juice or -4.5 for Minnesota, and you'd think that with the amount of tickets being written that way, that we would have seen a -5 at some point. But that has yet to be the case as of this writing, and thus, I've got no problem grabbing the points with San Francisco.
See, many bettors prefer to treat Week 3 of the preseason as an actual regular season game. After watching two weeks of suspect, and very bad football, patience starts to wear thin for bettors wanting to feast on the real thing. Everyone knows Week 3 is dress rehearsal time, and for whatever reason, those two words equate to “regular season game” for many bettors.
Look up and down the board this week and you'll see all the prohibitive preseason favorites for Super Bowl 52 getting plenty of love. Teams like New England (80%+), Seattle (80%+), and Pittsburgh (80%+), are getting so much support this week it makes my head hurt.
Minnesota may not be in the same class as some of those teams, but they are being treated like they are here because of it being the San Francisco 49ers on the other side of the field. While I do believe Minnesota will be the team to finish with the better regular season record of the two, none of that applies to this SNF game, and with the Vikings having to deal with the injuries they did at the end of last year's preseason, they can ill-afford to do the same thing this year. Therefore, we aren't going to see much from them or their starters on the whole this week outside of the first quarter, and I'm grabbing the points with the road dog because of it.
Best Bet: San Francisco +4
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Odds: San Francisco (+4) vs. Minnesota (-4); Total 42
Both San Francisco and Minnesota are coming off defeats a week ago during Week 2 of the preseason, and with this game being the last time many of the starters for both sides see the field before the games count, getting in positive work will be a must. Minnesota is looking to rebound after a tough year in 2016 hurt them from the get-go, while San Francisco has a new regime in the management suites and would love to see some giant steps forward taken this year en route to having a winning 49ers franchise again.
It's not going to be an easy road for either club given some of the powerhouses they've got to deal with in their respective divisions (Green Bay, Seattle), but this week's dress rehearsal game could end up going a long way into showing bettors what to expect from Minnesota and San Francisco this season.
Oddly enough, this game has one of the bigger point spreads for “dress rehearsal” week and it suggests that the 49ers may be an organization still stuck as cellar dwellers in the NFL this year. Only the Jets – long believed to be tanking 2017 away – and a Andrew Luck-less Colts team are catching more points then the 49ers this week with starters across the league getting the bulk of playing time. What that says about a 49ers team with a young regime trying to turn the page in 2017 remains to be seen, but chances are I won't be discussing too many best bet articles with the 49ers as a heavily-backed public side.
A QB rotation of Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, and C.J. Beathard won't inspire much faith from anyone, but given how their season could end up going, all three of these guys could see the field in the regular season, meaning that tonight's game is rather big for all three involved.
Minnesota doesn't exactly have their own deep pool of QB's with Teddy Bridgewater still hurt, but they are excited to show off new toy in RB Dalvin Cook. Minnesota is a team that's built to win with their defense, and having a young guy like Cook who can hopefully carry the load from them like Adrian Peterson did in his younger days, should help Minnesota become a playoff team once again.
But that doesn't necessarily mean laying the four points here is the best option, as Minnesota – a team decimated by preseason injuries a year ago – does not want the same thing to happen to them in 2017. That means as much as bettors want to believe Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal spot, I doubt the Vikings will follow that idea to it's core and could make it another early night for plenty of their starters.
That's why, I believe the value lies with the San Francisco 49ers in this spot as they've got multiple QB's vying for a position, among other position battles they've got going on, and with basically all the support going Minnesota's way here, I've got no problem being in the minority.
VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show about 90% of the bets coming Minnesota's way here, yet the line really hasn't moved. All week this game has been lined at either -4 with juice or -4.5 for Minnesota, and you'd think that with the amount of tickets being written that way, that we would have seen a -5 at some point. But that has yet to be the case as of this writing, and thus, I've got no problem grabbing the points with San Francisco.
See, many bettors prefer to treat Week 3 of the preseason as an actual regular season game. After watching two weeks of suspect, and very bad football, patience starts to wear thin for bettors wanting to feast on the real thing. Everyone knows Week 3 is dress rehearsal time, and for whatever reason, those two words equate to “regular season game” for many bettors.
Look up and down the board this week and you'll see all the prohibitive preseason favorites for Super Bowl 52 getting plenty of love. Teams like New England (80%+), Seattle (80%+), and Pittsburgh (80%+), are getting so much support this week it makes my head hurt.
Minnesota may not be in the same class as some of those teams, but they are being treated like they are here because of it being the San Francisco 49ers on the other side of the field. While I do believe Minnesota will be the team to finish with the better regular season record of the two, none of that applies to this SNF game, and with the Vikings having to deal with the injuries they did at the end of last year's preseason, they can ill-afford to do the same thing this year. Therefore, we aren't going to see much from them or their starters on the whole this week outside of the first quarter, and I'm grabbing the points with the road dog because of it.
Best Bet: San Francisco +4
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Columbus
Columbus - Race 3
$1 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $1 Exacta
Starter Allowance $3,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $5,300 • Post: 2:54P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $3,500 OR LESS IN 2016-2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. INNOCENT STORM: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHESAHEIFER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner wit h an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LADY OF OPINION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ
2/1
4/1
5
INNOCENT STORM
5/2
5/1
1
SHESAHEIFER
4/1
7/1
3
LADY OF OPINION
3/1
10/1
Columbus - Race 3
$1 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $1 Exacta
Starter Allowance $3,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $5,300 • Post: 2:54P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $3,500 OR LESS IN 2016-2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. INNOCENT STORM: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHESAHEIFER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner wit h an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LADY OF OPINION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ
2/1
4/1
5
INNOCENT STORM
5/2
5/1
1
SHESAHEIFER
4/1
7/1
3
LADY OF OPINION
3/1
10/1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
Del Mar - Race 1
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Place Pick All / $1 Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Pick 5
Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN RACES AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. ROCKANTHAROS is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NAZARETH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ROCKAN THAROS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SCATHING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating . Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4
NAZARETH
2/1
4/1
2
ROCKANTHAROS
6/1
6/1
1
SCATHING
5/1
7/1
5
ALOHA KE AKUA
8/1
10/1
Del Mar - Race 1
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Place Pick All / $1 Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Pick 5
Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN RACES AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. ROCKANTHAROS is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NAZARETH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ROCKAN THAROS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SCATHING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating . Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4
NAZARETH
2/1
4/1
2
ROCKANTHAROS
6/1
6/1
1
SCATHING
5/1
7/1
5
ALOHA KE AKUA
8/1
10/1
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Golden Gate Fields - Race #9 - Post: 5:56pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 91
Rating: 3
#4 GOING FOR THE WIN (ML=6/1)
#9 WHISKY N ROSES (ML=10/1)
#6 ONEFORTHETEAM (ML=9/2)
#5 KITTENMEISTER (ML=7/2)
#2 SINGAPRAYER (ML=15/1)
GOING FOR THE WIN - If you review the PP's for this entrant, you'll see he has recorded the top speed rating at the distance and surface. A repeat race today and this horse has a superb chance to win. Looking at today's class figure, this racer is meeting an easier field than last race out at Santa Rosa. I like that last effort on Aug 3rd at Santa Rosa where he ran second. Strong average class rating on this horse. Should have the power to run well on the turf. WHISKY N ROSES - This magnificent animal should be rumbling in the lane. ONEFORTHETEAM - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first time on June 2nd. Should know the animal even better this race. Gelding's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. This entrant may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. When the field turns for home, he could put these away. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 74 to 86 to 93 right in a row. KITTENMEISTER - Strong win percent this jockey and conditioner duo have been putting together. I like this gelding. Has the topmost earnings per start in this event. SINGAPRAYER - Looking at this gelding's running lines, I see he's almost always in-the-money. Aboard this thoroughbred on Jun 18th and Gomez is right back in the irons today. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Delia. Better watch out for this angle.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TUNE TO WIN (ML=4/1), #8 KITTEN'S ROYAL (ML=6/1), #3 BECOME AN INSIDER (ML=8/1),
TUNE TO WIN - Let me give you a tip. For the most part, don't play a maiden breaker out of a maiden claimer next race out. KITTEN'S ROYAL - Somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last out at Oak Tree at Pleasanton at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't think this pony will improve too much in today's race. BECOME AN INSIDER - You believe this equine is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't win often.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ONEFORTHETEAM - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 93. He is the top bet here.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 GOING FOR THE WIN to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[4,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $36
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[4,9] with [4,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
[4,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $72
Bar
Golden Gate Fields - Race #9 - Post: 5:56pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 91
Rating: 3
#4 GOING FOR THE WIN (ML=6/1)
#9 WHISKY N ROSES (ML=10/1)
#6 ONEFORTHETEAM (ML=9/2)
#5 KITTENMEISTER (ML=7/2)
#2 SINGAPRAYER (ML=15/1)
GOING FOR THE WIN - If you review the PP's for this entrant, you'll see he has recorded the top speed rating at the distance and surface. A repeat race today and this horse has a superb chance to win. Looking at today's class figure, this racer is meeting an easier field than last race out at Santa Rosa. I like that last effort on Aug 3rd at Santa Rosa where he ran second. Strong average class rating on this horse. Should have the power to run well on the turf. WHISKY N ROSES - This magnificent animal should be rumbling in the lane. ONEFORTHETEAM - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first time on June 2nd. Should know the animal even better this race. Gelding's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. This entrant may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. When the field turns for home, he could put these away. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 74 to 86 to 93 right in a row. KITTENMEISTER - Strong win percent this jockey and conditioner duo have been putting together. I like this gelding. Has the topmost earnings per start in this event. SINGAPRAYER - Looking at this gelding's running lines, I see he's almost always in-the-money. Aboard this thoroughbred on Jun 18th and Gomez is right back in the irons today. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Delia. Better watch out for this angle.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TUNE TO WIN (ML=4/1), #8 KITTEN'S ROYAL (ML=6/1), #3 BECOME AN INSIDER (ML=8/1),
TUNE TO WIN - Let me give you a tip. For the most part, don't play a maiden breaker out of a maiden claimer next race out. KITTEN'S ROYAL - Somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last out at Oak Tree at Pleasanton at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't think this pony will improve too much in today's race. BECOME AN INSIDER - You believe this equine is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't win often.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ONEFORTHETEAM - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 93. He is the top bet here.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 GOING FOR THE WIN to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[4,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $36
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[4,9] with [4,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
[4,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] with [2,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $72
The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8610 Class Rating: 87
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 ABSOLUTELY KOOL 6/1
# 6 MY SWEET DREAM 4/1
# 1 MAGIC TOSHIKO MAGIC 5/1
ABSOLUTELY KOOL could be the wager in here. She should definitely be carefully examined given the very strong speed figures. Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the midpoint of the contest. Recorded a very strong speed figure last time out. MY SWEET DREAM - Tough to pass on this filly with Mendez in the saddle. Will most likely go to the lead and could never look back. MAGIC TOSHIKO MAGIC - Overall the Equibase speed figs of this racer look very good in this race.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8610 Class Rating: 87
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 ABSOLUTELY KOOL 6/1
# 6 MY SWEET DREAM 4/1
# 1 MAGIC TOSHIKO MAGIC 5/1
ABSOLUTELY KOOL could be the wager in here. She should definitely be carefully examined given the very strong speed figures. Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the midpoint of the contest. Recorded a very strong speed figure last time out. MY SWEET DREAM - Tough to pass on this filly with Mendez in the saddle. Will most likely go to the lead and could never look back. MAGIC TOSHIKO MAGIC - Overall the Equibase speed figs of this racer look very good in this race.
The Walker Group at Monmouth Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 11 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $60000 Class Rating: 95
CHARLES HESSE III H. - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS. NO FEE TO NOMINATE, $400 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $200 TO START. STARTERS TO RECEIVE A MINIMUM OF $1,200. THE WINNING OWNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. CLOSED SUNDAY, AUGUST 13, 2017 WITH 14 NOMINATIONS. A $200 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION WAS MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY, THURSDAY, AUGUST 25, 2017.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 2 DON'S MARSH 4/1
# 1 GADGET MAN 6/1
# 7 FUZZY MUZZLE 7/2
I think DON'S MARSH is a formidable choice. Will probably compete very well in the pace battle which bodes well with this field. Is difficult not to consider based on speed figures which have been decent - 87 avg - of late. This horse has a very good win percentage in dirt route races. GADGET MAN - Taylor has well above average gains at this distance/surface. Put up a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. FUZZY MUZZLE - Reliable average Equibase speed figs in dirt route races make this horse a key contender. He has been racing admirably as of late while recording very solid speed figures.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 11 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $60000 Class Rating: 95
CHARLES HESSE III H. - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS. NO FEE TO NOMINATE, $400 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $200 TO START. STARTERS TO RECEIVE A MINIMUM OF $1,200. THE WINNING OWNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. CLOSED SUNDAY, AUGUST 13, 2017 WITH 14 NOMINATIONS. A $200 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION WAS MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY, THURSDAY, AUGUST 25, 2017.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 2 DON'S MARSH 4/1
# 1 GADGET MAN 6/1
# 7 FUZZY MUZZLE 7/2
I think DON'S MARSH is a formidable choice. Will probably compete very well in the pace battle which bodes well with this field. Is difficult not to consider based on speed figures which have been decent - 87 avg - of late. This horse has a very good win percentage in dirt route races. GADGET MAN - Taylor has well above average gains at this distance/surface. Put up a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. FUZZY MUZZLE - Reliable average Equibase speed figs in dirt route races make this horse a key contender. He has been racing admirably as of late while recording very solid speed figures.
Rick Needham at Saratoga
RACE #9 - 5:18 PM
The Smart N Fancy Stakes
5½ FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#8 FAIR POINT
#14 ROYAL INHERITANCE
#4 MISS ELLA
#6 GINGER N RYE
Here in just the 5th running of this stakes event, #8 FAIR POINT, a 4-1 shot, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a class drop (-2), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer "Shug" McGaughey send her "postward" for the "Sunday Feature" here at "The Spa" ... they've hit the board with 52% of nearly 90 entries saddled as a team to date. #14 ROYAL INHERITANCE is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in five straight, winning four times, however, kindly note that none of these "Circle Trips" qualified as "POWER RUN WINS."
RACE #9 - 5:18 PM
The Smart N Fancy Stakes
5½ FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#8 FAIR POINT
#14 ROYAL INHERITANCE
#4 MISS ELLA
#6 GINGER N RYE
Here in just the 5th running of this stakes event, #8 FAIR POINT, a 4-1 shot, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a class drop (-2), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer "Shug" McGaughey send her "postward" for the "Sunday Feature" here at "The Spa" ... they've hit the board with 52% of nearly 90 entries saddled as a team to date. #14 ROYAL INHERITANCE is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in five straight, winning four times, however, kindly note that none of these "Circle Trips" qualified as "POWER RUN WINS."
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Woodbine - Race #9 - Post: 5:21pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 82
Rating:3
#4 THAT'S A STRETCH (ML=3/1)
#3 LAND HO (ML=10/1)
#5 JIMMIES TRUCK (ML=7/2)
#7 CONQUEST TOO SMART (ML=12/1)
THAT'S A STRETCH - I like the fact that this gelding's last fig, 80, is tops in this group. You always have to be on the patrol for revenue generating jockey/handler teams; we have it right here. I believe the addition of the 'shades' today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing. Ranked number one in earnings per race. Another indicator that this horse is the class of the race. LAND HO - This horse should be motoring down the stretch. JIMMIES TRUCK - I think this gelding is very ready right now. I like the fact that Mattine brings him back to a race so quickly. CONQUEST TOO SMART - Garcia comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last event. I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last morning work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. The improved speed figs over the last three races is strong. Di Pasquale drops him in this race fit and ready to go.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BEAREAGLE (ML=5/2), #6 SCHLOSS SCHNEEBERG (ML=6/1), #8 ONE FOR JACK (ML=8/1),
BEAREAGLE - Can't wager on this pony in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance clash lately. This morning-line choice may be out of form without any recent drills. SCHLOSS SCHNEEBERG - The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this animal as a likely underlay. ONE FOR JACK - This animal likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't put in the top spot. Tough to play any horse in a sprint affair at 8/1 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last two months.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #4 THAT'S A STRETCH on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,5,7] with [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,5,7] with [3,5,7] with [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6
Bar
Woodbine - Race #9 - Post: 5:21pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 82
Rating:3
#4 THAT'S A STRETCH (ML=3/1)
#3 LAND HO (ML=10/1)
#5 JIMMIES TRUCK (ML=7/2)
#7 CONQUEST TOO SMART (ML=12/1)
THAT'S A STRETCH - I like the fact that this gelding's last fig, 80, is tops in this group. You always have to be on the patrol for revenue generating jockey/handler teams; we have it right here. I believe the addition of the 'shades' today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing. Ranked number one in earnings per race. Another indicator that this horse is the class of the race. LAND HO - This horse should be motoring down the stretch. JIMMIES TRUCK - I think this gelding is very ready right now. I like the fact that Mattine brings him back to a race so quickly. CONQUEST TOO SMART - Garcia comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last event. I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last morning work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. The improved speed figs over the last three races is strong. Di Pasquale drops him in this race fit and ready to go.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BEAREAGLE (ML=5/2), #6 SCHLOSS SCHNEEBERG (ML=6/1), #8 ONE FOR JACK (ML=8/1),
BEAREAGLE - Can't wager on this pony in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance clash lately. This morning-line choice may be out of form without any recent drills. SCHLOSS SCHNEEBERG - The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this animal as a likely underlay. ONE FOR JACK - This animal likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't put in the top spot. Tough to play any horse in a sprint affair at 8/1 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last two months.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #4 THAT'S A STRETCH on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,5,7] with [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,5,7] with [3,5,7] with [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6
