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Can'tPickaWinner2

Can'tPickaWinner2

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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington Park (4th) Rock My Dreams, 7-2
(6th) Lori's Store, 6-1


Belterra Park (4th) Discreet Star, 4-1
(6th) Stormy Star, 4-1


Canterbury Park (3rd) Bells of Concerto, 5-1
(4th) Dorn, 4-1


Del Mar (6th) Noble Hawk, 5-1
(9th) Street Serenade, 6-1


Ellis Park (1st) Rhythm Lake, 9-2
(9th) Lady Divine, 9-2


Emerald Downs (7th) Hoody, 7-2
(8th) Pippa Bou Peep, 7-2


Fort Erie (3rd) Christen Ballerina, 7-2
(10th) Late Moon, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Perfect Meeting, 8-1
(6th) Twin Six, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (5th) Gotaheartofgold, 4-1
(11th) Skiptothegold, 3-1


Louisiana Downs (2nd) Legion Affair, 7-2
(6th) Lady Lass, 6-1


Monmouth Park (1st) Julie's Indy, 4-1
(6th) Pilatus, 7-2


Mountaineer (5th) Sir Jeffrey Image, 7-2
(9th) Matty's Avenger, 3-1


Parx Racing (5th) New Freedom, 10-1
(6th) Stone of Scone, 9-2

Presque Isle Downs (3rd) Primed and Ready, 4-1
(8th) Mo Didn't Know, 9-2


Saratoga (3rd) Cool Comfort, 3-1
(4th) Unbridledexplosion, 3-1


Thistledown (3rd) Kate's Forest, 9-2
(7th) Rivers Run Deep, 9-2


Woodbine (2nd) Chief Chato, 8-1
(4th) Derek's Darling, 5-1
 
Can'tPickaWinner2

Can'tPickaWinner2

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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday 1:35 PM MLB

(969) HOUSTON ASTROS at (970) BOSTON RED SOX

Take: (969) HOUSTON ASTROS +135

It’s not often a pitcher with a 5-9 record can be congratulated on having a breakout year. But I think that’s the case for Astros righty Collin McHugh. Fact is, aside from one stretch where McHugh wasn’t 100% physically and struggled some, he’s been pitching some really good baseball for the Astros.

As is so often the case, it’s the refinement of secondary pitches that has transformed McHugh from what looked like a strictly back end of the rotation guy to a quality starting pitcher. The big key has been a changeup that has been all but unhittable. McHugh is getting remarkable separation from his fastball to the change. The current opposition BA against the change is barely above .100, and it’s clear that McHugh now has complete confidence in this pitch. I also don’t think this is a short term aberration. In fact, a better argument might be made that McHugh could end up emerging as the number one starter on this Astros staff next season.

Joe Kelly will throw for Boston, and he’s proving to be a gritty guy the Red Sox can probably rely on as a back end starting pitcher. I still maintain he’s a better bullpen fit based on his stuff, but there’s nothing wrong with Kelly as a #4 or #5 starter who can log innings and give his team a chance to win. But that could be the ceiling for Kelly as a starting pitcher. His secondary offerings are nothing special, and it’s very evident that his preference is to feature the fastball as much as he can. That usually means limitations as a starter unless it’s a really dominant pitch and that’s not the case for Kelly.

I have no argument with the Red Sox being favored today. Even in what has been a very down season for the defending World Series champs, they’re better than the lowly Astros. But the Red Sox have had loads of problems when faced with quality opposition on the mound. So this becomes one of those games where I will put less focus on the other aspects and will concentrate more on the starters. In this instance, I prefer McHugh to Kelly. Add in what I think are generous underdog odds, and the Astros look like a decent plus money shot today.
 
Can'tPickaWinner2

Can'tPickaWinner2

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Jim Feist

Comp MLB Pick for Sunday, August 17, 2014: 2:10 PM ET

(975) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (976) MINNESOTA TWINS

Take: (976) MINNESOTA TWINS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, August 17, 2014 is in the American League between the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins. The Royals have snuck into the top spot in the AL Central, displacing Detroit. The Royals arguably have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, next to Oakland. The Twins are last in the AL Central, 11 1/2 back of the Royals. The Twins took Saturday's contest, 4-1 and come back here on Sunday with another solid pitcher. Tommy Milone makes his second start for the Twins after being acquired from the A's. Milone has put some solid performances together, winning five straight decisions and allowing just four earned runs over his last 21 innings. Milone got the win at Houston in his first start for the Twins, allowing just two earned runs over six innings. Jeremy Guthrie will start here for the Royals and has a 8-10 record and 4.45 ERA. Guthrie might be the weakest of the Royals starters. The 35-year old veteran has struggled of late, allowing 4, 5, 8 and 6 runs in four of his last seven starts. We get Minnesota as a small home dog and I'm putting all my faith in Milone. The Royals have a lot going for them, just have to give today's pitching matchup to the home club. That's worth a shot with the dog. Your Bonus Play is on the Minnesota Twins.
 
Can'tPickaWinner2

Can'tPickaWinner2

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Art Aronson

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants

1* Bonus Play on the San Francisco Giants -162

The visitors send right-hander David Buchannan (6-6, 4.40 ERA) to the hill after yesterday’s brutal loss, the rookie right-hander seeks his fifth straight quality start, though he had his two-game winning streak snapped Monday, giving up three runs over six-plus innings in a 5-3 home defeat to the New York Mets. The Giants will counter with Tim Lincecum (9-8, 4.51 ERA) who is looking to turns things around after a few bad starts. The two-time NL Cy Young award winner has surrendered 11 runs and 14 hits over 7 2/3 innings in his last two home starts after throwing 24 scoreless innings while winning his previous three at AT&T Park. Note though that against the Phillies Lincecum is 5-3 with a respectable 3.27 ERA in 13 games lifetime. The Phillies bullpen has been a sore spot at times this season and was bad yesterday in coughing up a big lead and I think that could be a big factor in deciding tonight’s game as well. While Phillies rookie starter Buchannan has been fairly solid this season, he will likely have to be spectacular to edge out the Giants on the road. Note that Giants’ slugger Michael Morse has gone 8 for 14 with a home run, a triple and two doubles during this home stretch; he’s also hitting .400 with four homers in his last 12 overall versus Philadelphia. The Phillies haven’t won back-to-back games since early August and have in fact lost seven of eight coming in. Consider laying the extra juice on San Francisco and Lincecum.

AAA Sports
 
Can'tPickaWinner2

Can'tPickaWinner2

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Jimmy Adams

Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers

NFLX Bonus Play Under 41½

The 49ers will play in their new stadium for the first time today as they welcome in the reigning AFC Champs. The big key for us in this one is that these teams meet in the regular season. Both have Super Bowl aspirations, so the coaches aren’t going to show much. The play calling will be very “vanilla,” and we should expect a lot of sloppy football with the reserves.

The Niners usually play well in the preseason under Harbaugh, but that wasn’t the case last week as they were dominated by Baltimore. The O-line was destroyed, exposing an area that could be a big weakness if they don’t get things fixed. Quite Frankly, San Fran just isn’t a health ball club right now. This line seems to be moving up based on what Harbaugh has done in the preseason in the past, but in no way does that translate into this game. I wouldn’t touch this side even at -3.5, so at 4 or higher at some shops it’s completely out of the question.

The Broncos come in having played Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler last week. That means we’re likely to see a lot of Bryn Renner and Zac Dysert. These are two guys fighting for the 3rd string position, deserving of being in the NFL but in no way, shape, or form can we rely on them. That takes the Broncos “side” out of our hands.

With not much being shown on offense and an ugly ballgame inevitable, we’ll look to play this one UNDER the total.
 
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