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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday 4:05 PM MLB

(919) MINNESOTA TWINS at (920) OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Take: (919) MINNESOTA TWINS +155

I always try to make the point that just playing on starting pitching and basically ignoring all the other variables is a mistake too many bettors make. But on occasion, the price will be so inviting it’s probably not the worst risk in the world to make the play just on the two starters, and that’s to story on this side.

Phil Hughes has tailed off somewhat from his early season rampage. But Hughes is still pitching respectable baseball, he’s been good on the road all season, and he certainly has a chance to contain the A’s today.

Jason Hammel seems to have left his talent in Chicago. Hammel was stellar all season for the Cubs, but has been a far different hurler since moving west to Oakland. Since the deal got made, Hammel has been a disaster for his new team, with a 1-4 record and some horrible peripherals.

Hammel does come in off a win in which he somehow managed to keep the Rays off the scoreboard. But this was in no way, shape or form a good performance. It was mostly a combination of some very inefficient at bats by Tampa Bay and a healthy dose of good fortune. So Hammel’s streak of non-quality starts is still intact.

Obviously, Oakland is the much better team here. The Twins are building for the future and they’re in play out the string mode for this year. But while the A’s have the advantage in virtually every category in this head to head matchup, the one aspect that has to favor the road team is the starting pitching with Hughes over Hammel. Normally, that wouldn’t be enough to get me on the upset call. But the price here is substantial enough where that appears to be a feasible option. I’ll give the Twins a roll as today’s Bonus Play.
 
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Jim Feist

Comp MLB Pick for Sunday, August 10, 2014: 2:10 PM ET

(927) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS (928) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Take: (928) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, August 10, 2014 is in the Interleague game between the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals. Kansas City has to be one of the surprise teams in baseball thus far, just two games back of Detroit in the AL Central. The Royals brought a five game winning streak into the weekend and winners of eight of their last 10. Danny Duffy may not have a winning record for the Royals (6-10), but he has winning numbers with a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The 25-year old southpaw has pitched great of late, allowing one run or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts. Today he faces a Giants club that has fallen 3 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The Giants offense may struggle today against a good Royals pitcher. The Giants are 19th in runs, 24th in batting average and 25th in on base percentage. Tim Lincecum will start for the Giants. Lincecum is 9-7 on the season, but has struggled on the road where he has a 5.33 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. The veteran has also struggled of late, allowing 14 earned runs over his last 13 2/3 innings. Good spot here today for the Royals and Duffy. Your Bonus Play is on the Kansas City Royals.
 
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Art Aronson

Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees

1* Bonus Play on the New York Yankees -133

After getting shutout yesterday, I think the home side bounces back today in the finale. The Tribe will start Carlos Carrasco (3-4, 3.88) who is certainly not Corey Kluber; Carrasco makes his fifth start of the season and first since April 25th. Note that Carrasco struggled in a starting role in 2013, going 0-3 with a 6.95 ERA before getting moved to the bullpen. Carrasco's last two starts against New York didn't go well either, as he gave up 13 runs in 7 2/3 innings to lose both (the most recent was a 14-1 home destruction April 9th, 2013). The Yankees will counter with their most consistent starter in Hiroki Kuroda (7-7, 3.97 ERA); Kuroda has pitched seven innings of three-run ball in each of his last two starts but has suffered from a lack of offensive support, getting five total runs while going 0-1; note that against the Indians, the right-hander is 2-1 with a solid 3.10 ERA though. Despite the loss to Cleveland yesterday, the Yankees have been dominant in this series and note that the Indians have struggled on the road all season with a 24-37 record; all signs point to a comfortable home victory.

AAA Sports
 
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Jimmy Adams

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Bonus Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1½-105

I don’t play run lines often, but this “spot” is one that calls for it. Few would argue that Clayton Kershaw isn’t the best pitcher in all of baseball. He’s a phenomenal 10-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last 12 starts. You wouldn’t think that things could get much better than that, but Kershaw actually has a better career ERA at Miller Park, posting a 0.78 ERA there. This guy’s stuff is just downright filthy, so step in his way at your own discretion.

Jimmy Nelson on the other hand has been far from impressive since being called up from the minors. Nelson received his first career big league win against the Giants last time out, even though he allowed 3 earned runs. He has an unappealing 4.20 ERA and looks like he has some work to do before achieving success at this level.

The Dodgers haven’t been swept in a series of at least 3 games this year and have never been swept in Milwaukee. There’s no better time for the sticks to come alive then against the struggling Nelson. The return on investment is not worth taking this one money line, so we’ll bank on the Dodgers to win by at least 2 behind Kershaw and company.
 
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Dave Price

San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals

Bonus Play Kansas City Royals -130

The Key: With yesterday's loss, the Giants fell to 1-7 in their last eight interleague games and 5-21 in their last 26 games versus winning teams. The Royals, meanwhile, won their sixth straight and are in excellent position to earn a series sweep behind Duffy, who hasn't allowed more than one earned run in his last five starts. The Royals are 11-1 in Duffy's last 12 starts as a favorite. San Francisco's Lincecum has a 5.40 road ERA and a 9.22 ERA over his last three starts. The Giants are 1-5 in his last six road starts and 5-12 in his last 17 road starts versus winning clubs. Look for the Royals to win a fifth straight over the Giants.
 
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Stephen Nover

San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Bonus Play San Diego Padres +111

There are a lot of odd quirks in baseball. One of them is Charlie Morton pitching during the day. It's usually a good idea to fade Morton in these instances, one of which occurs today.

Morton is 1-6 with a 4.35 ERA this season in days games. This is in keeping with his history of having lost 23 of 28 day-time decisions.

Another quirk is how the Padres dominate the Pirates in Pittsburgh winning 15 of their last 18 at PNC Park. The Pirates could only manage one run yesterday off Eric Stults, one of the worst starters in the majors. That's not totally amazing when you see the lineup the Pirates fielded Saturday with Russell Martin batting third, Gabby Sanchez hitting cleanup, Jayson Nix playing third base and Michael Martinez at second base. I can't think of any one worse batting cleanup all season than Sanchez.

Maybe the banged-up Pirates get back Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez with his brutal defense today, but Andrew McCutchen isn't back due to a broken rib. Plus the Pirates draw San Diego's No. 1 pitcher, All-Star Tyson Ross.

Ross hasn't surrendered more than two earned runs during any of his last nine starts posting a 1.62 ERA during this span, second only to Clayton Kershaw in this time frame. Ross, unlike Morton, is tough in day games going 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA.

Some teams play better with the pressure off. That's the case with San Diego. The Padres have won 12 of their last 19 and seven of their past 10 games. They are a better offensive team away from Petco Park, especially when Everth Cabrera gets on base. The speedy lead-off hitter recently came off the DL and is batting .414 this month.
 
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WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, August 10

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INDIANA (13 - 17) at NEW YORK (13 - 16) - 8/10/2014, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
INDIANA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in road games this season.
NEW YORK is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NEW YORK is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 7-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (15 - 15) at CONNECTICUT (11 - 20) - 8/10/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 260-312 ATS (-83.2 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in road games in August or September games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 155-197 ATS (-61.7 Units) after a division game since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 106-74 ATS (+24.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 10-2 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 6-6 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (14 - 16) at SAN ANTONIO (13 - 18) - 8/10/2014, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
LOS ANGELES is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
LOS ANGELES is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
LOS ANGELES is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-6 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 7-6 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (17 - 13) at CHICAGO (13 - 17) - 8/10/2014, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
ATLANTA is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent since 1997.
ATLANTA is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1997.
CHICAGO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-6 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-6 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULSA (12 - 19) at SEATTLE (11 - 20) - 8/10/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 103-72 ATS (+23.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
SEATTLE is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1997.
SEATTLE is 94-64 ATS (+23.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.
TULSA is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TULSA is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TULSA is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1997.
SEATTLE is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 7-5 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 7-5 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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WNBA

Sunday, August 10

Trend Report

3:00 PM
INDIANA vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing New York
New York is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana

4:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CONNECTICUT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Connecticut is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Connecticut is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:30 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN ANTONIO
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games on the road
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games

6:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
TULSA vs. SEATTLE
Tulsa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Tulsa is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
 

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