Dave Cokin
Sunday Bonus Play 1:05 PM MLB
(979) CINCINNATI REDS at (980) NEW YORK YANKEES
Take: (980) NEW YORK YANKEES -105
The Yankees have won the first two games in this series, much to the consternation of the majority of bettors. It’s a classic example of wagerers putting too much weight on the starting pitching and not factoring in other elements. I think the biggest flaw most baseball bettors make is overvaluing the starting pitching. This series has been a good example of that, and we’ve seen it in the line movement. In each of the first two games, the Reds have drawn the majority of the ticket volume, but the pro dollars that move the line have been pretty heavy on the Yankees.
I suspect we’ll see the same thing again today. Johnny Cueto is going to be a more enticing option than Hiroki Kuroda and the Reds will win the popular vote by a substantial margin. But don’t be surprised to see the line again head in the opposite direction with the sharper dollars arriving on the Yankees.
Cueto is good enough to win this by himself, and Kuroda is not the pitcher he used to be, so I can understand why so many players will make a case for the road team. And they might well end up getting paid, as the sharp money certainly doesn’t automatically win.
But aside from the starting pitching, this matchup favors the Yankees. The Reds are feeling the effects of being shorthanded with the right side of their infield on the disabled list, and I personally think they need to get a stick or two, even short term, as one or two extra losses could be all it takes to keep this team from playing baseball in October.
As for the Yankees, they’ve sure got their flaws. The infield defense is pretty bad, the starting rotation is going to miss Tanaka at some point and the offense has some holes as well. But a couple of their key hitters are starting to swing the bats better, the bullpen has actually gotten quite strong and at least from a position player standpoint, the Yankees are by far the healthiest they’ve been all season.
So long story short, Cueto rates the clear edge over Kuroda, but the other factors point to the Yankees. That adds up to the home team rating the true favorite role here, and the current line is very close to pick ‘em. Mix in the positive momentum for the hosts and I’m compelled to view the Yankees as the right side once more today.