Dave Cokin
Sunday Bonus Play MLB
(953) MILWAUKEE BREWERS (954) PITTSBURGH PIRATES 1:35 PM
Take: (953) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
No consensus line for today’s Brewers-Pirates hookup as I’m writing this due to a pitching change on the Bucs side. But I would look for Milwaukee to be right around even money neighborhood here and I see some reasons to support the Brewers in this series rubber match.
Gerrit Cole is out with what is being termed shoulder fatigue and Jeff Locke has been recalled from Indianapolis for at least one start. I am not a Jeff Locke believer. The lefty had some phenomenal good fortune through the first half of the 2013 season. it was kind of amazing how many times he outperformed his metrics and kept on winning. The predicable regression showed up as the campaign progressed, and while Locke finished the year with a winning record, he entered the 2014 season as a great potential fade. Only one problem, and that was that he didn’t make the team and ended up back in the minors.
Locke has been spotty at Indianapolis. There have been a few outings, but he’s really been pretty ordinary. Locke needs ground balls and good control to thrive and those two aspects haven’t always been there, and that’s at AAA. His one big league effort this season was an utter disaster. I can see that happening again today.
Milwaukee can feast on ordinary lefties with their righty-heavy lineup. I don’t believe Locke is even at that level. I really don’t see the southpaw as anything more than a borderline big leaguer and I think his major league future will eventually be little more than bullpen fodder. So when the situation presents itself as it will today, I’m generally not going to be averse to going against Locke if the price is right.
The downside here is relying on Yovani Gallardo, who’s has tailed off badly following a good early April for the Brewers. As noted previously, Gallardo is no longer anything close to a power pitcher and he really hasn’t been fooling many hitters lately. I’ll admit that there’s some hesitation in backing Gallardo here, even against a team he’s enjoyed great success against.
But I do like the idea of trying to beat Locke and the team data, while hardly overwhelming, does favor the road team to some extent. This could turn into a shootout, as the starters aren’t the best and the bullpens for both teams have been busy. But Milwaukee appears to have some edges here, and let’s also factor in this being a very lopsided series over last several seasons, with the Brew Crew pretty much owning the Bucs. I’ll look for the Brewers to get it done again today.
