Cavs-Warriors NBA Finals sees historic adjustment in Over/Under betting
The 2015 NBA Finals has undergone the biggest adjustment in betting totals from Game 1 to Game 4 in any championship series over the last 24 years, with a 10.5-point difference between the opening game total and fourth installment of the series.
Going back to the 1991 NBA Finals (as far back as Covers’ NBA betting database allows), the most a total has jumped between Game 1 and Game 4 is 6.5 points. That adjustment occurred in the 1991 championship between Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls and Magic Johnson and the Los Angeles Lakers (Game 1: 201.5, Game 4: 195), and the 1998 finals featuring Chicago and the Utah Jazz (Game 1: 186, Game 4: 179.5).
Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals closed with a lofty total of 203.5 points, only playing Over due to an added overtime period that saw Golden State edge Cleveland 108-100 last Thursday. Game 2 closed with an Over/Under of 199 points, with the Cavaliers stealing a 95-93 OT win in Oracle Arena and playing Under despite the extra frame. That led to a 194.5-point closing total for Tuesday’s Game 3 in Cleveland, in which the home side won 96-91 for another easy Under winner.
That takes NBA bettors to the opening total for Thursday’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals, which sits at 193 points – a more than 10-point difference from the series opening number. With such a gap between the Over/Under for Game 1 and Game 4, were oddsmakers completely wrong when it came to this series?
Well, no. While scoring has been at a premium in this series, and all three games fell Under the total in regulation by a combined 40 points, sportsbooks make their adjustments based on two factors: 1. Game outcomes. 2. Betting patterns. And as far as the basketball betting public is concerned, every game should be going Over.
“We’d get Over money tomorrow if we set the total at 232,” Jimmy Vaccaro, veteran linesmaker for South Point Las Vegas, tells Covers.
According to books in Nevada and online, the Over has been the popular pick with the recreational bettors while the sharps have swooped in and taken the Under. That’s just fine by
Bookmakers, who have not only been big winners with those Under results the past two games but also with plenty of Over plays parlayed to the Warriors.
“You just make adjustments, that’s all,” John Avello, director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, tells Covers. “Golden State isn’t shooting the ball well. So just like their coach has to make adjustments, the books have to make adjustments.”
The NBA Finals have been a breeding ground for Under paydays in recent seasons. Since the 2006 NBA Finals, championship games have gone 19-29-3 Over/Under (60.4 percent Under) and Game 4 situations have produced a 2-7 O/U mark in that span – the most profitable situation for Under bettors in the best-of-seven format for the finals.
That’s not to say the totals won’t climb back towards 200-plus points for the remaining games of the series, especially with a Game 5 in Golden State on the schedule. Cleveland’s defense is getting the bulk of the praise for this downtick in offensive production but the Cavs’ clock-sucking offense and just plain poor shooting from the Warriors – specifically Stephen Curry – is having a big impact on how the totals trickle down.
“I think the Cavs are making it difficult but the Warriors are just missing wide-open shots,” says Avello, pointing to Golden State's 41.4 percent shooting in the finals. “They’re just missing. (Matthew) Dellavedova is OK, but they’re (the media) making him out to be the next great defensive stopper. But it’s more about Curry missing open shots, going 2 for 15. You have no chance to go Over the total when he’s shooting that way.”
Looking back over the past nine NBA Finals, Game 4 has seen an average closing total of 189.72 points against an average total of 185 points scored. However, Game 5 totals jump to an average of 191.31 with 202 points scored, producing a 5-3 O/U record.
Game 3 winners
Game 3 is a pivotal matchup for any playoff series, with one team taking a 2-1 edge or putting a 3-0 chokehold on their opponent. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Game 3 winners - when the series is tied 1-1 - have gone on to win the NBA title in 31 of the past 37 situations. One of those six exceptions was LeBron James and the 2013 Miami Heat, who dropped Game 3 to San Antonio but rallied to win the series.
Looking back to the 1991 NBA Finals, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to a collective 13-11 SU and 13-10-1 ATS record in Game 4 of the series. As for LeBron, he’s 2-3 SU, ATS, and O/U in Game 4 of the NBA Finals for his career, averaging 24 points, 6.4 assists, and nine rebounds in those contests.
Finals home dogs
Cleveland was just the 18th finals home underdog since the 1991 NBA Finals, covering the spread as a 2-point pup in Game 3 Tuesday. In that span, home dogs have finished 6-12 SU, 8-10 ATS, and 11-9 Over/Under.
It was also just the fourth time all season the Cavaliers were getting the points at home, and the first time they’ve won and covered in that rare role. Cleveland is once against the underdog in Game 4, set at +3 Thursday.
LeBron MVP no matter what
Not since Jerry West in the 1969 NBA Finals has the Finals MVP award gone to a player on the losing team. In fact, that’s the only time it’s happened.
LeBron James is making a case for the now-labelled Bill Russell Award, averaging 41 points, 12 rebounds and more than eight assists in the 2015 finals, and entered the series priced at +180 to win Finals MVP. Despite pushing the Cavs to a 2-1 series lead, oddsmakers still have Golden State as a -115 favorite to win the NBA championship, with Cleveland coming back at -105.
Win or lose, James should get major MVP consideration, and has already won over one Las Vegas
Bookmaker (even though you can’t wager on MVP odds in Nevada - yet).
“If you take LeBron off the court and you take that group of guys they have right now (no Kevin Love, no Kyrie Irving), they wouldn’t win five games all year,” says Avello.
The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has set James’ Game 4 scoring total at 35.5 points (-110 either side). Curry has a conservative scoring total prop of 28.5 points (-110 either way).