Dave Cokin
Okay, here we go. It’s an abbreviated slate, but today is indeed opening day for the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and I have one play. As it’s the only play I have as of now for Sunday, it’s also the daily comp.
907 METS (Harvey) at 908 ROYALS (Volquez) 8:35 PM
Take: New York Mets F5 -115
Note that I almost always list starting pitchers for my baseball wagers. Assume that’s always the case if you see them listed here for the daily Bonus Plays. And for those a little shaky on the terminology, F5 refers to a first five inning play rather than full game, as is the case with this selection.
The Mets will be a popular side tonight as they open against the team that topped them in the 2015 World Series. That’s definitely in the mix as far as the reasoning for this play goes.
Make no mistake, the Mets are well aware that even if they were to win tonight’s game by 10 runs, it wouldn’t begin to make up for the disappointment of what took place last October. But some team members have made no secret of the fact they’re approaching this opener with a bit of a chip on their collective shoulders. Plus, there have been comments about not looking forward to the prospect of having to be on the scene as the world champion Royals enjoy their pre-game ceremonies.
But there’s more to making this play than a possible motivational edge. I absolutely feel this could be a rerun of what we saw last autumn.
If you recall, the Mets had the lead in each World Series game at some point. In fact, they were F5 winners in four of the five games, and the only loser was one where they gave up a four-spot in the bottom of the fifth inning. That scenario could well play out again tonight.
Matt Harvey will be stoked for this game. You can be sure he hasn’t forgotten about the one that got away to end last season. Harvey is over his bladder ailment (that did not sound like fun) and is all systems go tonight. I have no problem with Edinson Volquez, who was a nice contributor for the Royals in 2015. But head to head, I give a definite edge to Harvey.
I do not give the Mets a late-game edge, however. We all know about the sheer dominance of the Kansas City bullpen. I really don’t want to be needing to hold a small lead, tied or trailing after six against this outfit. Until something changes, I have no intention of playing full game against the Royals.
I’m also not completely sold on the Mets bullpen. Jeurys Familia was terrific last season. But, while it really wasn’t even close to being all his fault, he blew three straight save opportunities in the World Series and I wonder about whether that impacts him moving forward. It’s also worth mentioning that Familia had a bad spring. He finally flashed dominance in his final exhibition outing. But for much of the spring, Familia’s command has been shaky, most especially with his sinker. It seemed to be mostly mechanics, as Familia was flying open and that caused the ball to run rather than sink, which is a bad thing for a guy who needs to be down in the zone. My guess is that it’s just a temporary glitch, but at least for right now, a potential issue worth monitoring.
Bottom line here is I like the idea of backing the Mets, particularly with Harvey on the hill, in a season opener they really want. But I don’t have faith I can beat the Royals late, so I’d rather try to do so early. First five play on the Mets as small road chalk is the choice.
