SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +116 over ATLANTA
Shades of Methuselah here but as Bartolo Colon’s ERA seems to show continued life, his xERA tells a different story. There are small signs of erosion all over the place but we said the same thing last year. When (if) he finally retires, Colon can regale friends with tall tales of being on that team with Julio Franco and Babe Ruth. This year, Colon’s swinging strike rate is 3% but he has eight K’s in 10 innings. His fastball is at 87 MPH and his groundball rate is 10%. If we can’t fade Colon as the chalk, who can we fade? Colon is batting practice or at least he should be.
Trevor Cahill may be made of glass but he’s just 29 years old and has wickedly good skills. Cahill went 4-4 with a 2.72 ERA in 66 innings for the Cubbies. His numbers were skewed by a couple of outings but overall his MLB skills were pretty good. All-in-all, Cahill consolidated the gains he made late in 2015, including a revived strikeout, rate and strong groundball tilt. In one start this year, Cahill’s swing and miss rate was an elite 16% after striking out seven batters in six frames. Cahill has been dealing with injury problems his entire career but he's back from the dead and when he’s healthy, he’s damn good.
Tampa Bay +147 over BOSTON
Last year Alex Cobb went 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA in a mere 22 innings for the Rays. Cobb struggled, perhaps predictably, in those tentative first steps back from May 2015 TJS. Entering that season, we were touting him as a potential breakout star because he had the skills to back it up. He surely still owns those skills and they’re coming around again. After two starts covering 13 innings, Cobb has a BB/K split of 2/11 with a 13% swing and miss rate and nifty 0.95 WHIP. A strong swing and miss rate supported his decent (but not elite) K-rate prior to the surgery, indicating potential for further growth. In particular, Cobb generated swings on 36% of pitches outside of strike zone in 2014; compared to league average of 31%. The Rays are playing well and Alex Cobb is a very decent underdog target.
Drew Pomeranz is coming off a six-inning, four-hit gem against the Orioles but Baltimore is having difficulty with junk pitchers so that’s something to keep an eye on. Pomeranz is not skilled enough to duplicate that performance often. His most glaring weakness is his lack of control, the result of nibbling at the plate and falling behind early in the count. These control issues may be at least partially due to the fact that he often works backwards, by throwing a knuckle-curve more than any other pitch (40%). But that makes sense given the quantity of grounders and swinging strikes the pitch induces. His skills play-up when his hit and strand rates are favorable and while you can say that about almost any pitcher, Pomeranz throws too many balls and his groundball/fly/ball rate of 31%/44% will not play well at Fenway like it did in San Diego. Pomeranz limped to the finish line (6.61 ERA) after being dealt from the Pads to the Rex Sox at the deadline last year. Pomeranz' 21% hr/f since coming over to Boston, compared to a 9% rate in SD, may just be a small sample fluke, but it is another concern among others. The plan is to stick to playing value and in that regard, Cobb and the Rays are a pretty sweet price here.
MINNESOTA -1½ +155 over Chicago
After two starts, Hector Santiago is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Santiago is a fade target of ours that we’ll talk about another time. We’re not concerned about it for this start because it’s not relevant, as this wager is all about fading the South Side with James Shields on the hill. Shields’ is 1-0 after two starts with a 1.69 ERA and it’s only because of cold weather. It’s not every pitcher who can rack up a 6-19 record with an ERA approaching 6.00 – and still have a job the next year. Such is the case with James Shields, who despite his 2016 struggles, opened this year with a spot in the rotation. You may have noticed we didn’t fade him in his first two starts because he has a past history of surviving in the cold but it’s a comfortable 65° in Minnesota today with the winds blowing out (early reports) and chances are that Shields will be getting blown out too.
A favorable strand rate had been Shields’ friend in years past, but not in 2016. However, that was the least of his worries. With lagging velocity, he generated fewer swinging strikes, and his k-rate took a big hit. At the same time, Shields’ first-pitch strike rate plummeted so he issued more free passes. To complete the perfect storm, he gave up more fly balls, and with a high hr/f, his ERA soared. Shields’ gets another chance ONLY because he’s got two more years on his contract with $42 million due and the South Side are not paying anyone 42 million to sit on the bench. They’ll pitch him until his are falls off. At 35, his skills are unlikely to make a rebound and they already look worse under the hood after those two aforementioned starts. Shields’ has walked seven batters already in 11 frames. His groundball/fly-ball split after two starts is 20%/64%! His first pitch strike rate is 51%. While it’ll be hard to post numbers worse than in 2016, Shields’ is well on his way because the skills are actually worse already. All you DFS players, load up on Twinkies today
