MLB Power Rankings - Week 1
1. Chicago Cubs (-130) - This team continues to improve, including a 97-win playoff appearance last year. The Cubs strengthened their offensive lineup and pitching rotation by acquiring OF Jason Heyward and SP John Lackey from division rival St. Louis in the offseason. Chicago now has one of the best rotations in the league along with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
2. Toronto (-126) - They finished the 2015 regular season with an incredible 70-39 record after starting just 23-30. Their record could have been even better as they went just 15-28 in one run games. In fact, their X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 102-60 last year which was six games better than any other team in baseball.
3. San Francisco (-124) - San Francisco has won 3 of the past 6 World Series titles and each came after missing the playoffs in the previous season. San Francisco added starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija in the offseason to bolster an extremely veteran rotation that also features ace Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, and Matt Cain. The bullpen is excellent and posted the third best ERA in the league last season.
4. NY Mets (-121) - The defending National League champions have the best 1-2-3 punch of any starting rotation in the league with Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard. They also have a reliable closer in Jeurys Familia who had a 1.85 ERA last season while converting 43 of 48 save opportunities.
5. Washington (-119) - They were the preseason World Series favorite last year and Washington is still loaded with talent, including the best overall player in the league with OF Bryce Harper and three strong starting pitchers with Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg. They also acquired 2B Daniel Murphy from the Mets.
6. LA Dodgers (-117) - The rotation lost Zack Greinke to Arizona, but the Dodgers still have the most consistent pitcher in baseball with ace Clayton Kershaw who has posted 1.83, 1.77, and 2.13 ERA's the past three seasons. Los Angeles acquired Scott Kazmir in the offseason to follow Kershaw in the rotation. The Dodgers won 92 games last year, despite going just 6-9 in extra-inning games and only 23-26 in close games decided by one run.
7. Houston (-116) - The team made their first playoff appearance in ten years last season and improved their win total by 16 games from the year before and by an incredible 35 games from two years earlier. Houston's 86-76 record should have been even better as their X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 93-69 last year which was second best in the American League.
8. Boston (-114) - A strong offense that ranked 4th overall in total runs scored last year. The problem was a weak pitching staff, but Boston made a major improvement by acquiring ace David Price from Toronto and closer Craig Kimbrel from San Diego during this offseason.
9. Kansas City (-112) - The team lost Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto in the offseason, but overall they still have the same core that won the World Series last year. Kansas City was second to last in the AL in home runs, but they win with pitching as evident by the fact they allowed the second fewest home runs in the league last season.
10. Pittsburgh (-110) - They had the second most wins (98) in the league last season and they had the best overall offense in NL Central, leading the division in team batting average, on-base percentage, hits and runs scored. CF Andrew McCutchen remains one of the best all-around players in the league. However, the Pirates were fortunate to go 36-17 in one-run games last year and will likely regress this season in close games.
11. Detroit (-109) - If the Tigers can remain healthy, they will be much better than their 74-87 record last year. Keep in mind this team went 90-72 and 93-69 the two years prior. They still possess Miguel Cabrera and added two huge additions with Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann this offseason.
12. St. Louis (-108) - They have five straight playoff appearances, including three straight division titles. Last season they became the first team to win 100 regular season games in the past four years. However, the team is aging and the depth of the starting pitching rotation is a concern. Wainwright missed five months last season, plus Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez had recent injuries.
13. Texas (-105) - They tied for the third best on-base percentage in the American League last season. They won the division title despite having a suspect pitching staff that had the third worst team ERA (4.24) and second worst WHIP (1.36). The pitching should improve this season with Cole Hamels and the return of Yu Darvish.
14. Cleveland (-104) - A strong pitching rotation with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar followed by a solid bullpen. The offense has the potential to be more productive this season after ranking fifth in on-base percentage and sixth in team batting average last year in the American League.
15. NY Yankees (-103) - They scored the second most runs in all of baseball last season. Only Toronto scored more. The team made the playoffs (barely) and improved their overall roster this offseason by acquiring Starlin Castro, Aroldis Chapman, and Aaron Hicks.
16. Arizona (-101) - Arizona made the biggest offseason acquisition in the league by signing ace Zack Greinke who was incredible last year with a 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The D-Backs also acquired Shelby Miller who will pair nicely with former All-Star Patrick Corbin to form a strong 1-2-3 starting rotation. The offensive lineup has two super stars in CF A.J. Pollock and 1B Paul Goldschmidt.
17. Seattle (+102) - They have not made the postseason since 2001 which is the longest active drought in the league. The offense needs improvement after ranking third to last in team batting average (.249) and runs scored in the American League last year. The pitching rotation has potential and is led by ace Felix Hernandez.
18. Chicago White Sox (+104) - Their X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was just 72-90 last season as the White Sox ranked 28th overall in runs scored. They did make a substantial improvement at third base this offseason by acquiring Todd Frazier who hit 64 home runs the past two years for Cincinnati.
19. Tampa Bay (+105) - The team ranked second to last in runs scored in the American League and only 25th overall in all of baseball last season. However, the starting pitching rotation has potential with Chris Archer and should be healthier overall this year.
20. LA Angels (+107) - The Angels were extremely fortunate to go 85-77 last year as they had an incredible 35-17 record in one-run games. They will likely regress this season as their X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was only 79-83 last year. Other than Mike Trout, this team is very mediocre and the Angels actually ranked dead last in team batting average (.246) in the American League last season.
21. Baltimore (+109) - There is offensive talent with Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Chris Davis. However, the pitching rotation is weak and received a blow when Wei-Yin Chen left for Miami. Overall, Baltimore spent $280 million in the offseason without improving their 81-81 team from last year.
22. Minnesota (+113) - Their offense ranked last in on-base percentage (.305) and second to last in team batting average (.247) last year in the American League. The addition of Byung-ho Park who hit 105 home runs the past two years in Korean Baseball will help.
23. Miami (+115) - The pitching rotation added LHP Wei-Yin Chen which gives Miami a solid second starter behind RHP Jose Fernandez. However, the team did little to improve their overall roster from last year's 71-91 squad. The bottom of the batting order is very weak and other than Stanton and Justin Bour at the top, no other player had more than 10 home runs last season.
24. Oakland (+118) - The A's were just 19-35 in one-run games last year, so they should improve on their ugly 68-94 record, especially since their X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 77-85 last year. The addition of Khris Davis now provides more power in the middle of the offensive lineup as he hit 49 home runs the past two seasons with Milwaukee.
25. Milwaukee (+121) - The starting rotation has potential as both Matt Garza and Wily Peralta should pitch better this season after underachieving last year. RHP Taylor Jungmann showed promise with 107 strikeouts in 119 innings pitched as a rookie last year. The Brewers were a competitive 16-16 in one-run games last season, but they went a horrendous 52-78 in all other games.
26. San Diego (+123) - The offensive lineup is extremely weak with no depth. The Padres ranked dead last (30th) in all of baseball last season in team batting average and on-base percentage. San Diego also has a poor bullpen and a pitching staff that ranked third to last in the National League last year with a 4.44 ERA in road games. This team has now posted a losing record in 7 of their past 8 seasons.
27. Cincinnati (+125) - The pitching rotation looks horrible with starters such as Homer Bailey (5.56 ERA), Anthony DeSclafani (4.05 ERA), Raisel Iglesias (4.15 ERA), John Lamb (5.80 ERA), and Michael Lorenzen (5.40 ERA). They also lost 3B Todd Frazier (35 HR, 89 RBI) and closer Aroldis Chapman (1.63 ERA, 33 saves) during the offseason.
28. Colorado (+126) - Colorado's overall offensive stats last season were very misleading as despite leading the league in runs scored (due to hitter friendly Coor's Field), the team ranked dead last in the league in batting average and on-base percentage when using road games only. The pitching rotation is once again extremely weak from top to bottom this year.
29. Atlanta (+128) - They went just 67-95 last season despite a solid 28-18 record in 1-run games. Had they not been fortunate to win 61% of those close games, their record would have been even worse. In fact, their X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 61-101 last year.
30. Philadelphia (+130) - The pitching rotation is the worst in the league. They had a 4.69 ERA last season which was only ahead of the Rockies who play in thin air and altitude. Philadelphia's 5.09 ERA on the road was the worst of any team.
Power Ratings compute offensive and defensive statistics into one number for each team, while accounting for factors like recent performances and strength of schedule. Power Ratings can be used as a baseline for relative spread index to compare current or future match-ups between two teams. The relative spread does not account for non-statistical factors like home-field advantage, recent injuries, game time decisions, rivalries, publicity, and weather.
