Sunday 3/8/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 8, 2015 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $8,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 12 HEROIC ACT 9/2


# 4 NO DISHONOR 6/1


# 2 PERKY KITTEN 4/1


HEROIC ACT is my choice. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 72 - of his last effort. Is a strong contender based on figs recorded recently under today's conditions. NO DISHONOR - Has formidable Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. He has earned formidable figs under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this group. PERKY KITTEN - Might best this group of animals here, showing very good figures of late. With a respectable 67 Equibase speed fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this affair.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 1:46pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 QUE REGALO (ML=7/2)
#7 CINNAMONJELLYBEAN (ML=2/1)


QUE REGALO - Looking at today's class rating, this pony is up against an easier field than last out at Parx Racing. I like this filly. Has the uppermost earnings per race in today's contest. I believe the addition of the 'hood' today will help this filly focus her attention on racing. CINNAMONJELLYBEAN - This filly should be in fine form, this far into her form cycle. Dropping in class rating points from her Feb 8th race at Parx Racing. Based on that knowledge, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. A repeat of that latest race on February 8th where she garnered a rating of 74 looks high enough to win in this clash.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 TIZ BUT A DREAM (ML=4/1), #5 JAZZY KATHY (ML=9/2), #6 HOUSE RED (ML=6/1),

TIZ BUT A DREAM - Showed some physical problems in the last race at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre. Run-of-the-mill speed fig last race out at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre at 1 mile. Don't think this steed will improve too much in today's race. JAZZY KATHY - Pace makes the race. Hard for this speedball to be able to handle the pressured pace from the rest of this field. This was a live animal, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to think this one is suspect. HOUSE RED - Just can't bet on this horse. Didn't show me anything last time around the track or on May 26th. This filly registered a speed fig in her last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #2 QUE REGALO on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[2,7] with [2,7] with [1,3,4,5,8] Total Cost: $10
 
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Gulfstream - Race #7 - Post: 3:30pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 BE A BULL (ML=4/1)


BE A BULL - I just may give this one a good shot. Should improve off last race where he did run outside the top 3, but was within five lengths at the wire. Zayas and Ziadie have had wonderful success together over the last twelve months. Adding blinkers often leads to a better effort on the racetrack.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SEVENTH SON (ML=5/2), #9 MEGALITH (ML=3/1), #2 UPON REFLECTION (ML=7/2),

SEVENTH SON - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'hanger' horse. MEGALITH - On a downward moving series. Speed ratings keep decreasing. I'd like to see better recent outings with M/L odds of 3/1. UPON REFLECTION - Showed very little in the last race. Really no reason to expect improvement today.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 BE A BULL to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 
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Balmoral: Sunday 3/8 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (7 - 11 / $27.00): MEABH (1st)

Spot Play: ROCKSTARZ ROSETTE (3rd)


Race 1

(6) MEABH nice-looking filly trotter adds second-time lasix off a really nice victory. (1) MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE four-year-old mare has flashed some ability and looks to be progressing nicely. (7) FRONTIER PINE BOW filly has had some trouble staying trotting but can get a piece if she minds her manners.

Race 2

(2) FOX VALLEY VETO four-year-old has a big brush and just needs a smooth trip. (4) MASTER OF EXCUSES has been racing better than his lines indicate and could hit the ticket at a price. (1) ANTS INER PANTS mare has the ability to beat this field but doesn't seem to be on her 'A' game; use underneath.

Race 3

(4) ROCKSTARZ ROSETTE nice looking filly pacer was intentionally taken off the gate last out before showing a nice burst late. If the 3-year-old has her nose on the gate she's the horse to beat. (1) FRONTIER SARAH filly was sneaky sharp last out full of pace late; threat. (3) THE DOE filly picks up a good driver change and could be ready for a better effort.

Race 4

(1) WINDSUN MONTECARLO well bred mare owns some back class and looks to be back in racing shape after a layoff. (7) YOUROLDLOV-ELETTER mare came up empty last out after some nice efforts. If the pacer can revert back two her prior form she can be close. (3) KIMBERLY R has paced two good miles in the row but rarely wins.

Race 5

(6) PERCHED ON TOP mare will offer a big price and is capable of sweeping past late with a good setup. (4) MISSIANA will look to make it three straight wins at the track; threat. (5) LYRICS FALL filly has some pedigree, adds lasix for the second time, and was the driver's choice.

Race 6

(5) SAINT SIMEON doesn't look best on paper but could be ready for a good effort for capable connections. The trotter has shown big-time ability when right. (3) MUSCULAR YANKEE four-year-old is getting better with every start and is one of few contenders in the race. (7) HOT ROD RILEY MAE takes a significant drop in class and will be used aggressively.

Race 7

(7) PRETTY PLACE mare has burned cash in two straight but finds a really soft spot. (5) PARKLANE SPARKLE well bred mare is facing tougher but does have some upside. (8) FOX VALLEY SHIVER is very inconsistent from week to week but could hit the ticket with a good effort.

Race 8

(5) MIZMEALILBIT mare makes her first start for new connections and could show improvement. (9) MIRIAM'S JET scored a victory last out at a price and could have more to offer. (3) ONE JAZZY LADY mare has flashed some ability but could need a start off a layoff.

Race 9

(4) MAYFAIR SOPHIE mare went a really nice effort last out from off the pace. She should offer a nice price and can win if she stays trotting. (5) REPEAT YOUR ABC'S has lacked pop late in the mile; command a price. (1) VIPER BLUE CHIP gelding has beaten much better but comes off a layoff.

Race 10

(5) DOC TELLADAY was really good last out closing from a tough spot. (3) CD'S IDEAL gelding is just now back in racing shape and is capable. (7) JUSTLIVINTHEDREAM was sharp a few starts ago but has not won in a long time; command a price.
 
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Yonkers: Sunday 3/8 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 58 - 178 / $289.30 BEST BETS: 8 - 15 / $28.20

Best Bet: ELECTROFIRE (8th)

Spot Play: ART OF ILLUSION (1st)


Race 1

(1) ART OF ILLUSION appeared to have pace while in late traffic last out. His prior effort he had the rail and exploded from the pocket. (4) STATION THREEOHSIX has failed to get underway this season but he's got some class to call upon. (5) RAMPAGE JACKSON faltered with little excuse on the front end in last and it's tough to endorse him for the top spot.

Race 2

(3) BACKSTREET HANOVER can almost be considered a proven commodity at the Open level; this is a notch below and from this post Buter can avoid traffic issues. (4) ANDIE SOPHIA had no chance last week from that tough post assignment. Trotter can be more involved with the return to the red-hot Dube in the bike. (11) ROLLS BLUE CHIP steps up very sharp for Burke but he's got to overcome the second tier.

Race 3

(1) STAR PHOTO drops in class for the third consecutive start off a no-chance try; Dube sticks with him and he's worth a long look. (5) BINGO QUEEN is her own worst enemy sometimes but she drops in class and can storm home. (6) PHOTOSAVVY returns locally off a game win at The Meadowlands.

Race 4

(10) SWEET JUSTICE was forced on the move early last out, cut the pace between calls but got tired and broke; he picks up Dube today and I'll stick with that theme and give him a look. (5) PROUD MOMENT is a bit erratic but the talent is there. (7) IT REALLY MATTERS was a good second versus better two back.

Race 5

(4) TIME WILL TELL ALL has flashed good speed at both ends in his last two efforts, and he had some traffic issues in last. Smooth sailing can take this. (9) ABC CROWN ME QUEEN has been rock-solid in her last three efforts. (3) I'M FABULOUS returns from a win at Monticello and she's had her moments here in the past.

Race 6

(1) BAMBINO HALL held decently after an uncovered trip last out. Gelding has speed, class and should be close up throughout. (10) ORANGE BIGI is in a tough early spot but he drops in class and I like that aggressive try last week. (3) TAC'S DELIGHT looks for two in a row at this level; logical.

Race 7

(4) MISSY GOLDFIRE has always been a consistent sort and she debuts for the DiDomenico barn via claim; mare looks like she's got as good a shot as any here. (10) AQUANILLA blew away a cheaper field last out for owner/driver Dube. (8) WINWOOD SCOUT also debuts for new connections off a strong win.

Race 8

(7) SUN OF A VICTORY fired from the gate but broke last out; prior efforts were good including a wire-to-wire score at this added-distance. (3) RAS SHAKINTHTBACON held evenly last out after flashing early speed; trotter looks like she's improving. (5) MEADOWVIEW ARNY won at this class, this distance two starts back.

Race 9

(1) ELECTROFIRE returns locally and he's been successful with better than these in the past; Bartlett can work out a winning trip from this spot. (4) JOURNEYMAN faltered on the front end upon arrival and he was collared by a classy rival; to the front again. (2) HICKORY ICON looks for two in a row and should be close up throughout.

Race 10

(4) DULL ROAR never got involved last out from a near-impossible spot; he gets some post improvement in this tough-to-figure event and should be a good price. (8) LITTLE MICHAEL B hasn't raced badly in his two start for his new barn but he's stuck outside yet again. (1) CHEYENNE SEEBER has some speed, the rail and Brennan driving.

Race 11

(3) TRACK MASTER D broke suddenly from the pocket while stalking in the final turn last out when it looked like he could have easily blown by; another chance. (4) RESCUE PLAN drops and is capable of better. (5) BOX CAR JOHNNIE doesn't win often but he's been in good form.

Race 12

(1) BJ'S BEQUIA showed life for the first time in a while last out and he can certainly build off that effort. (4) TRIP HANOVER finished with sneaky pace in last and he moves in a few spots today. (2) SAND BENELLI sat buried, finished willingly last week and he's got back class.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Shangala, 5-1
(9th) Desert Spirit, 5-1

Fair Grounds (5th) Silver Rocket Man, 3-1
(6th) Paroled, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (7th) Sky Forever, 4-1
(9th) Gotham Sky, 4-1

Gulfstream Park (5th) Arana, 6-1
(11th) Lori's Store, 4-1

Hawthorne (1st) Seattle Train, 5-1
(9th) Hide a Rose, 8-1


Laurel Park (3rd) Rock Me Gently, 4-1
(8th) Rock Warrior, 10-1


Mountaineer (1st) Sunday Dawn, 5-1
(2nd) Chiquito Kisses, 3-1

Oaklawn Park (4th) Heroic Act, 9-2
(9th) Irish You Well, 3-1


Parx Racing (6th) Silent Ronin, 10-1
(9th) Beautiful Dancer, 7-2

Santa Anita (6th) Stormin Trick, 4-1
(9th) Vicious, 6-1

Sunland Park (6th) Fancy and Flashy, 5-1
(8th) Carrytheteam, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) Fehsenfeld, 3-1
(7th) Marine One, 5-1

Turf Paradise (1st) Impeccably, 9-2
(4th) Diamonds Dena, 9-2


Turfway Park (1st) Vex, 6-1
(7th) Crosshairs, 3-1
 
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NCAAB Big 12 Analysis
By Jim Feist

Tournament play is on the horizon! It's the start of a wild few weeks with conference tournament play helping to whittle the field. In the Big 12, Kansas has been the dominant team again, but there is a logjam of teams vying for the spots below the Jayhawks. Here's a look at some of the top teams of the Big 12.

Kansas: The Jayhawks have been a powerhouse team, tops in scoring (81 ppg) in the conference and a +8.5 scoring margin, though they have not been invincible with losses at Oklahoma State (67-62) and at West Virginia (62-61). Sophomore guard Frank Mason III (12 ppg) has led the way on a team with great balance, second in the conference in field goal shooting, tops in field goal defense.

He’s not alone, of course, with 6-8 senior Perry Ellis (13 ppg, 7 rpg), 6-5 sophomore Wayne Selden (10 ppg) and 6-8 freshman Cliff Alexander blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Kansas might not be as good as last year’s squad with Andrew Wiggins, but they beat Utah (63-60) and Michigan State (61-56) in tough non-conference games, while getting blasted by Kentucky, 72-40 (who hasn’t?).

Iowa State: The Cyclones are not big up front and not especially strong on defense. Yet, what a talented, deep team for Fred Hoiberg, deadly on offense, running opponents into the ground with a top 10 offense again. This is an experienced group led by 6-8 junior Georges Niang (14.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg), 6-4 junior Naz Long, 6-6 senior Bryce Dejean-Jones (12.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 6-6 senior Dustin Hogue. This group is Top 5 in assists in the nation for the second straight year. Iowa State is on a 54-26-1 run over the total!

They are tops in the Big 12 in field goal shooting. One concern is road play, where they’ve struggled, especially on defense. They allowed 94 in a loss at Oklahoma and 89 at Kansas. Iowa State even allowed Texas Tech to hit 11 three-pointers in a 78-73 upset. Something to keep in mind come Big 12 tourney time: Iowa State is 47-32-1 ATS against the Big 12.

Oklahoma: Coach Lon Kruger has a run-and-gun Sooners squad that is tough, led by 6-4 junior Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 5 rpg) and 6-4 junior Buddy Hield (17 ppg). They can be relied on at the free throw line in close games, 74% at the charity strip (No. 1 in the Big 12). They are terrific on offense and the defense has improved, second in the Big 12 in field goal shooting allowing 38%, plus fourth at defending the three-pointer allowing .365% shooting.

A pair of 6-8 frontcourt forces in junior Ryan Spangler (11 ppg, 8 rpg) and TaShawn Thomas (11 ppg, 6 rpg) give the Sooners good balance all around. The frontcourt is not big, however, and they’ve lost to strong rebounding teams Baylor (69-58), Wisconsin (69-56), and Kansas (85-78). They also had 22 turnovers in an 86-65 loss at West Virginia.

Texas: The Longhorns are a young team for Rick Barnes with a monster frontcourt that few teams look forward to playing. Sophomore guard Isaiah Taylor (12.8 ppg) leads in scoring, but the rebounding muscle is fierce with 6-11 freshman Myles Turner (11.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg), 6-8 senior Jonathon Holmes (11 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and 6-9, 285-lb junior Cameron Ridley (8.6 ppg, 5 rpg). Texas is tops in the Big 12 in blocks and second in rebounding margin.

Even during their four-game mid-season skid they lost by 3 at No. 15 Iowa State and in overtime by a basket to Oklahoma State. They have wins over UConn and Iowa and lost in OT to Stanford. And in a loss at Kentucky (26-26 at the half) the Longhorns ended up with a 42-31 rebound edge, including 16-12 on the offensive glass. How many teams can say that after facing the mighty Wildcats?

Baylor: Few teams can pound the glass like Baylor, Top 5 most of the year in rebounds led by 6-7 junior Taurean Prince (13 ppg), 6-8, 280-lb junior Rico Gathers (11 ppg, 12 rpg) and 6-6 senior Royce O'Neale (6 rpg). Baylor lost both meetings with Kansas, but dropped a 56-55 thriller in one of them. The Bears were 8 of 15 on 3-pointers, but 10 of 38 inside the arc. They’d love a third shot at the Jayhawks in tourney play.
 
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March Madness is NOW! Betting this week's NCAAB conference tournaments
By JASON LOGAN

For those that think March Madness doesn’t begin until the selection committee has their say on that tense Sunday in mid-March, we say “WRONG”.

The official and oft-forgotten kickoff to the NCAA postseason begins this week when 13 mid-major conferences open their respective conference tournaments. Starting Tuesday, these leagues will fill out the first outright selections of the national tournament and, along the way, likely burst the bubble of a few major conference programs on the NCAA fringe.

Chances are you haven’t paid attention to these little leagues during the course of the season, since many of their games go without odds. Hell, you may not know some of them even existed. So we’re giving you a head start when it comes to capping these conference tournaments, pointing out the favorites, value underdog bets and live long shots to win.

America East (March 4, 8, 14)

Favorite: Albany Great Danes (21-8, 15-1) – With the America East a campus-sites tournament – no host school – Albany has home court to the finals. The Great Danes give up just 59 points per game at home – ninth lowest in the country.

Underdog: Stony Brook Seawolves (21-10, 12-4) – The lone conference blemish on Albany’s resume comes courtesy of the Seawolves, who ride a six-game winning streak into the postseason. Momentum is worth its weight in gold come March.

Long Shot: New Hampshire Wildcats (18-11, 11-5) – The Wildcats lost twice to Albany by a combined three points and have a win over Stony Brook. New Hampshire can knock down the 3-pointer and defend against it – two very key stats for playoff basketball.

Atlantic Sun (March 3-8)

Favorite: North Florida Ospreys -130 (20-11, 12-2) – North Florida gets home-court throughout this tournament, and can pile on the points in a hurry – averaging 83 points per home game (fifth in the country). It won both meetings with Florida Gulf Coast, who many pick to win this tournament.

Underdog: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +270 (21-9, 11-3) – The Eagles stumbled at the end of the year with two straight losses. Florida Gulf Coast is known more for its defense (39.1 FG% def) then the high-flying offense it wowed the nation with two years ago.

Long shot: South Carolina Upstate Spartans +370 (21-10, 8-6) – North Florida’s two conference losses came to the Spartans, who also played FGCU tough. South Carolina Upstate has a plus-5.4 scoring margin and the conference’s top scorer Ty Greene, who dropped 39 on North Florida and 31 on FGCU.

Big South (March 3-8)

Favorite: Charleston Southern Buccaneers (19-10, 13-5) – The Buccaneers locked up the No. 1 seed with a thrilling triple-overtime win against High Point Saturday. Charleston Southern can fill it up at home (averaging 80 points) and lives by the 3-pointer, and dies by the 3-pointer (27.4 3-pt attempts – second most).

Underdog: Radford Highlanders (21-10, 12-6) – Radford grabbed the No. 4 seed with a win in its season finale. The Highlanders have two wins over High Point and a road win at Charleston and boast a deep rotation with seven players averaging 5.9 points or more.

Long shot: Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (18-13, 10-8) – The Bulldogs managed to win 18 games despite being ranked among the worst defensive programs in the country (74.2 points against). Gardner-Webb has been able to overwhelm the top teams in the conference with its explosive offense (75.1 points per game).

Colonial Athletic Association (March 6-9)

Favorite: James Madison Dukes +1,000 (19-12, 12-6) – Even though the Dukes are ranked No. 4 in the conference tournament, they take six wins in their last seven games (5-2 ATS) into the postseason. That momentum separates them from a deadlocked pack at the top of the conference. William & Mary are +200 faves to win the Colonial at the Superbook in Las Vegas but dropped three of its last five games of the season. The CAA is much more wide open than the odds would indicate.

Underdog: NC Wilmington Seahawks +600 (17-12, 12-6) – The Seahawks crapped the bed in the season finale, losing to Elon but has knocked off Northeastern and James Madison in recent weeks and sits No. 2 in the tournament seeding, and will play a banged-up Drexel team (missing CAA leading scorer Damion Lee) or a 8-23 College of Charleston squad.

Long shot: Elon Phoenix +1,200 (14-17, 6-12) – Elon came on late in the season with three straight wins to finish up, beating Northeastern and UNCW in that span. The Phoenix also beat No. 1-seed William & Mary earlier this year, who they will likely face in Round 2 of the CAA tournament.

Horizon League (March 3-10)

Favorite: Valparaiso Crusaders EVEN (26-5, 13-3) – Since Valpo won the league, it gets to host the tournament - a sweet deal for a team that went 13-1 at home. The Crusaders don’t budge much on defense and don’t give away second looks at the basket either, allowing just 7.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Underdog: Green Bay Phoenix +150 (23-7, 12-4) – Seeded No. 2, Green Bay avoided a potential meeting with Cleveland State in the semifinals (lost both games to the Vikings). The Phoenix won the regular season title last year but were upset in the opener. They’ll be cautious of a letdown this time around.

Long shot: Detroit Titans +350 (14-17, 7-9) – Detroit is sitting No. 5 in the tournament and no one ahead of them wants them to advance. The Titans have victories over Valparaiso, Cleveland State, and Oakland and was competitive in February with a 5-2 ATS record. Detroit is a dangerous 3-point threat at 39.1 percent in league games.

Metro Atlantic Athletic (March 5-9)

Favorite: Iona Gaels +120 (24-7, 17-3) – The Gaels can light up the scoreboard with an offense that posts 79.6 points per game – seventh in the country. Iona did, however, lay an egg in the season finale to St. Peter’s, marking the fourth straight game the Gaels have failed to cover.

Underdog: Rider Broncs +500 (21-10, 15-5) – Rider was one of the best bets during the regular season, going 17-9 ATS in its 16 lined games. The Broncs had a strong true road record at 11-4 and played some heavyweights in Kansas and Michigan State early in the year.

Long shot: Niagara Purple Eagles +300 (8-21, 7-13) – The Purple Eagles picked up half their wins in the final four games of the season, including a win over Rider, holding opponents to about 40 percent shooting. Niagara also played Iona to a one-point game, losing 80-79 at home. Momentum breeds upsets.

Missouri Valley Conference (March 5-8)

Favorite: Wichita State Shockers -300 (27-3, 17-1) – Wichita State is going dancing regardless of their tournament turnout. Wichita State proved it was top dog in the MVC with a convincing win over Northern Iowa and has covered in five straight heading into the postseason.

Underdog: Northern Iowa Panthers +250 (27-3, 16-2) – While UNI’s record is very close to WSU, Saturday’s 14-point defeat to the Shockers showed how much space is really between these programs. The Panthers give up just 54.6 points per game – fourth lowest in the country – and seemingly have an easier side of the bracket.

Long shot: Illinois State Redbirds +800 (15-15, 11-7) – With ranked rivals above them in the standings, Illinois State is giving great value in the MVC tournament. The Redbirds bring a four-game winning streak into the postseason and covered in both losses to Wichita State.

Northeast Conference (March 5,8,11)

Favorite: St. Francis (NY) Terriers (21-10, 15-3) – The Terriers limp into the postseason off a loss and a slim overtime victory in their final two games of the schedule. St. Francis has home court throughout the tournament, losing just one conference game in front of its fans.

Underdog: Robert Morris Colonials (16-14, 12-6) – Robert Morris takes a three-game roll into the tournament and was the lone Northeast team to come out of Peter Aquilone Court in Brooklyn with a victory. Rodney Pryor is playing the best basketball in the conference averaging 25.5 points in the last four games.

Long shot: Sacred Heart Pioneers (15-16, 9-9) – Sacred Heart closed the campaign with back-to-back wins and went 6-2 in its last eight games of the schedule. The Pioneers love to push the tempo, averaging 73.4 points on 72.3 possessions per game – running the 20th fastest tempo in college hoops.

Ohio Valley Conference (March 4-7)

Favorite: Murray State Racers -125 (26-4, 16-0) – The Racers were perfect in conference play but all that could be for nothing if Murray State can’t get the job done in the postseason. The Racers can put up the points - 78.8 per game – but do have flaws on defense and at the charity stripe.

Underdog: Belmont Bruins +260 (19-10, 11-5) – The Bruins earned the No. 3 seed in the tournament thanks to a late-season push that won four straight, including a victory over Eastern Kentucky. Belmont can also fill the stats sheet but hasn’t been its best away from home.

Long shot: Morehead State Eagles +260 (15-16, 10-6) – Morehead State also brings momentum into the postseason with three wins in a row. Those victories did come against the bottom half of the OVC East, but the Eagles have a swarming defense that turns mistakes into easy offense – forcing a league-high 14.9 turnovers per game.

Patriot League (March 3,5,8,11)

Favorite: Colgate Raiders +270 (15-16, 12-6) – Colgate finished as the No. 2 seed but has five wins in its last seven games, and those two losses have come by a combined three points. The Raiders also won both meetings with No. 1 Bucknell (+165) this season. This team can bring the rain from downtown, averaging 7.8 3-pointers per game on 40.2 percent shooting – ninth best in the country.

Underdog: Lehigh Mountain Hawks +425 (16-13, 10-8) – Lehigh takes on American U in Round 2, a team it beat in its last meeting, then would likely face Colgate in the semifinal. The Mountain Hawks have given the Raiders a tough go in their two clashes, and have a convincing win over No. 1 Bucknell. It could happen for the No. 3 seed.

Long shot: Lafayette Leopards +500 (17-12, 9-9) – The Leopards are dead eyes from downtown, shooting 40.3 percent from distance and knocking down almost eight 3-pointers per game. Lafayette ranks 26th in scoring at 75 points per game and took down Bucknell, Colgate and Lehigh this season.

Southern Conference (March 6-9)

Favorite: Wofford Terriers -125 (25-6, 16-2) – Wofford runs a very methodical offense, sucking almost every second off the shot clock. That’s helped the Terriers limit opponents to just 59.9 points per game. They bring a five-game winning streak into the postseason, going 4-1 ATS in that span.

Underdog: Chattanooga Mocs +300 (22-9, 15-3) – The Mocs run at a much quicker tempo than their Southern rivals, scoring 72.8 points per game. They won their last meeting at home versus Wofford and boast four players averaging double figures.

Long shot: Samford Bulldogs +1,500 (13-18, 6-12) – Samford has a tough slate of schedule to finish the season, playing five of its final seven games on the road. The Bulldogs went 3-4 in that span with a 5-2 ATS mark. Samford has a freshman star in Christen Cunningham, who is playing his best ball of the season.

Summit League (March 7-10)

Favorite: South Dakota State -110 /North Dakota State +500 (21-9, 12-4/20-9, 12-4) – Nearly identical records from these rivals. Since they’re seeding No. 1 and No. 2, there’s a very good chance we see them in the final. Both closed the regular season with a loss. They split the season series but No. 1 SDSU has the softer side of the bracket this March.

Underdog: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles +500 (17-13, 10-6) – Oral Roberts took a win over NDSU last week and closed with a victory over Denver. The Golden Eagles are without standout guard Korey Billbury, who was suspended at the end of the year. And while they’ve done OK without him in those two games, they will miss him in the backcourt when the postseason pressure builds.

Long shot: IUPU - Ft. Wayne Mastodons +500 (16-13, 9-7) – The Mastodons have resume wins over North and South Dakota State and come into the postseason on an 8-2 run, going 9-1 ATs in that stretch. IPFW can win with offense or lock teams down on defense.

West Coast Conference (March 5-10)

Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs -300 (29-2, 17-1) – The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to BYU in the season finale, which probably cost them a shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga gets it done on both ends of the floor and that loss to the Cougars is likely a wake-up call for Mark Few’s squad.

Underdog: BYU Cougars +300 (23-8, 13-5) – The Cougars may have just punched their ticket to the Big Dance with that win over Gonzaga, and run the risk of a letdown in their opener. Brigham Young is the top scoring team in the country but doesn’t play much in the way of defense.

Long shot: Pepperdine Waves +1,000 (17-12, 10-8) – Behind the Zags, St, Mary’s and BYU, Pepperdine is playing in the shadows of those WCC heavyweights. The Waves won both games with the Cougars, knocked off the Gaels and gave the Bulldogs fits. They’ve held their last four opponents to an average of just 54 points.
 
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Mid-Major Tournaments
By Bruce Marshall

After recently providing a look-ahead to the postseason extravaganzas conducted by the major conferences two weeks ago, we provide a quick preview for the conference tournaments of the lower-echelon Division I leagues in this edition.

The rather recent introduction of two events (the CollegeInsider.com Tourney, or CIT, and the College Basketball Invitational, or CBI) has provided more postseason slots and thus more opportunities for entries from the low-major leagues to have teams participate in tourneys other than the NCAA and NIT. Several of these loops are now sending multiple entries to the postseason, so it behooves handicappers to begin paying attention to these sides before they enter either the Big Dance, NIT, CBI, or CIT.

Many Las Vegas sports books, which routinely post numbers on several "added" conferences (Big Sky, Metro-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Summit, SoCon), will be including prices on almost all of these minor conference tournaments as well. Note that many of the upcoming conference tournaments will also be televised (the introduction of ESPN-3, which streams on computers, has added countless more college hoops viewing opportunities and will be providing added coverage for many of the lower-rung D-I conference tourneys).

We've listed below, by conference alphabetical order, upcoming tournament specifics for those lower-profile Division I leagues. Also included are any teams that enjoy home-court tourney edges; the top contenders in each loop, noted by italics, with any clear-cut favorite or co-favorite accompanied by an *; and last season's conference results in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT. Before Selection Sunday, we'll also review how these leagues have fared in recent Big Dance action.

March Madness...it's here!

AMERICA EAST...Top 8 teams qualify. Quarterfinals, semis, and final March 6, 8, 14 at home of highest seed for each matchup. Albany enters as the top seed. UMass-Lowell remains in its transition period from Div. II and is ineligible for the conference tournament.

Top contenders - Albany*, Stony Brook, Vermont, New Hampshire.

Notes...Defending tourney champ Albany turned on the jets once conference play commenced and proceeded to run away with the regular-season crown, earning home-court edge for as long as it stays alive in this event. Coach Will Brown's Great Danes have the ability to balance the floor because of the interior scoring threat provided by 6-6 PF Sam Rowley (14.3 ppg & 53% from floor; one of two returning starters from last season), which prevents foes from ganging up on Gs Peter Hooley (13.7 ppg) and 6-2 juco sparkplug Evan Singletary (12.7 ppg). Albany also didn't allow an A-E foe to crack the 70-point barrier until Vermont did it in the final regular-season game.

Stony Brook was the only league rep to beat the Great Danes (and did so on the road) and was good enough to win at Washington in pre-league play when the Huskies were still undefeated and ranked just outside of the national top ten. Beastly 6-8, 260-lb. jr. C Jameel Warney ranks among the nation's rebound leaders (5th at 11.5 pg) and recently exploded for a 32-point, 18-rebound stat line against Hartford. Warney's presence has helped the Seawolves to the nation's No. 4 ranking in rebound margin (+8.8 rpg). Puncher's chances go to Vermont, whose airtight defense allows only 57.6 ppg (ranking 13th nationally), and New Hampshire, which played Albany to the wire in both regular-season meetings, losing by 1 and 2 points, respectively.

Last year...NCAA - Albany lost vs. Florida, 67-55. NIT - Vermont lost at Georgia, 63-56. CBI - Stony Brook lost to Siena, 66-55.

ATLANTIC SUN...Tourney March 3-8 at homecourts of higher seeds. Florida Gulf Coast is the top seed.

Top contenders - North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, South Carolina-Upstate.

Notes...By virtue of last week's 76-62 win over FGCU in Jacksonville, North Florida has earned home-court edge in the A-Sun Tourney. The Ospreys were flying down the stretch, winning five straight to close the regular-season and catch Gulf Coast, relying on a balanced lineup featuring four DD scorers, led by soph G Dallas Moore (15.4 ppg). UNF can be very hard to beat when its triples are falling, as the Ospreys hovered near 40% beyond the arc all season and rank 20th nationally in three-point accuracy (39.6%). Everyone in the lineup can step back and hit 3s. FGCU still has some of the remnants of Andy Enfield's "Dunk City" team that made a longshot run to the Sweet 16 two years ago and made it to the NIT last season for HC Joey Dooley. Senior Gs Bernard Thompson (13.6 ppg) and Brett Comer (12.4 ppg) both played key roles in the unexpected run for Enfield two years ago.

USC-Upstate should at least return to another minor postseason event after winning 21 games this season following advancement to the CIT last March. Note that the Spartans beat North Florida in both regular-season meetings, won at Georgia Tech in pre-league play, and possess the Sun's top scorer in sr. G Ty Greene (20.1 ppg).

Last year...NCAA - Mercer won vs. Duke, 78-71; lost vs. Tennessee, 83-63. NIT - FGCU lost at Florida State, 58-53. CIT - East Tennessee State won vs. Chattanooga, 79-66; lost vs. Towson, 63-60; USC-Upsate lost vs. Towson, 63-60.

BIG SKY...Tourney March 12-14 at home of regular-season champion, unless that happens to be Sacramento State, which will not be able to host at its home Hornet's Nest Gym (capacity 1200) because of size limitations. If Sac State wins the Sky, the tourney could be held at any of three other locations, including the Reno Events Center, San Joaquin Delta College, or McClellan Park Gym. Top eight teams qualify.

Top contenders - Sac State, Eastern Washington, Montana, Northern Arizona.

Notes...The Sky's regular-season race remains up for grabs into the final games this weekend. Note that Sky notched a couple of eye-opening non-league wins before New Year's when Eastern Washington won at Indiana and Northern Arizona won at Saint Mary's. For most of the season, regional observers have regarded EWU as the team to beat, with G Tyler Harvey (22.8 ppg) leading the nation in scoring and PF Venky Jois (16.8 ppg) providing the interior scoring threat for the Eagles, who shoot almost 48% from the floor. But seasoned Sac State, with four seniors and a junior in a starting lineup that returned all five starters from a year ago for HC Brian Katz, has stayed near the top of the table all season. The Hornets have a crackling backcourt led by Gs Mikh McKinney (19 ppg), Dylan Garrity (13.6 ppg), and defensive stopper Cody Demps, shoots even better from the floor (48.4%; ranks 13th) than EWU, and also hits 40.5% beyond the arc (ranks 6th).

Montana has been a pleasant surprise for first-year HC and alum Travis DeCuire, who returned only one regular starter, G Jordan Gregory, now scoring a Grizzlies-best 17.2 ppg, but has also been able to benefit from former Washington and juco transfer PF Martin Breuning, a German import who has emerged as an interior force (16.9 ppg). The darkhorse to watch is Jack Murphy's NAU, which has been able to win on the road this season and can play a variety of different styles, but would prefer to run with a pair of former jucos, slashing wing Quinton Upshur (14.6 ppg) and go-go G Aaseem Dixon (12.6 ppg), while 6-4 soph G Kris Yanku has emerged as a difficult matchup and has been on a scoring tear (20.8 ppg last five) in recent weeks. Perennial contender Weber State still has to qualify for the event, and appears unlikely to make a late run with top scorer G Jeremy Senglin (15.4 ppg) currently out with a jaw injury.

Last year...NCAA - Weber State lost vs. Arizona, 68-59. CIT - North Dakota lost at UN-Omaha, 91-75; Northern Colorado lost vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 82-71; Portland State lost at San Diego, 87-65.

BIG SOUTH...Tourney March 4-8 at HTC Center, Conway, SC (home court of Coastal Carolina Chanticleers). The top five finishers receive byes into the quarterfinals; seeds 6 thru 11 compete in a play-in round.

Top contenders - High Point, Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Radford, Winthrop, Gardner-Webb, UNC-Asheville.

Notes...Absolutely wide-open event with the top seven teams separated by just three games in the league standings, which is similar to the logjam a season ago when Cliff Ellis' Chants of Coastal Carolina took advantage of the Myrtle Beach locale to win this event before giving No. 1 regional seed Virginia a mighty scare in the Big Dance sub-regionals. Ellis is back with a similar-looking team with four starters from a year ago, featuring a well-balanced, guard-heavy offense with four DD scorers led by sr. G Josh Cameron (13.2 ppg). The "wow" factor in the loop belongs to Scott Cherry's High Point and its highlight-reel 6-8 F John Brown (18.6 ppg), an ACC-caliber recruit whose windmill dunks have been featured on ESPN Sports Center and who has NBA scouts flocking to the Point. Cherry is also on the coaching radar of several higher-profile suitors likely to come calling after the season (many believe he ends up at George Mason, where he once coached under Jim Larranaga). But the Panthers have lost twice to Coastal Carolina, blowing a big lead at this venue on Feb. 6.

Charleston Southern also just dumped the Point in 3 OTs last Saturday to tie for the reg.-season title, and is regarded as a co-favorite with electrifying league high scorer Saah Nimley (21.5 ppg), a 5'8 bundle of energy who has scored 30 ppg over his last four outings. Gardner-Webb, with high-scoring F Jerome Hill (19.1 ppg), and UNC-Asheville, with explosive G Andrew Rowsey (18.9 ppg; lit up High Point for 39 last week), cannot be dismissed, while Winthrop boasts of one of the nation's top three-point threats in G Keon Moore (3.24 triples pg ranks 6th nationally).

Last year...NCAA - Coastal Carolina lost vs. Virginia, 70-59. NIT-High Point lost at Minnesota, 88-81. CBI - Radford won at Oregon State, 96-92; lost at Old Dominion, 82-59. CIT - VMI won at Canisius, 111-100; won vs. IPFW, 106-95; won at Ohio, 92-90; lost vs. Yale, 92-75.

METRO ATLANTIC...Tourney March 5-9 at Trans Union Center, Albany, NY. The top five seeds get byes in the first round; games will pit 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9, with winners advancing to quarterfinal round.

Top contenders - Iona, Rider, Manhattan, Monmouth.

Notes...Iona enters Albany as the top seed, but the Gaels have not been stretching many margins against MAAC foes, with most league wins by single-digit margins and with no spread covers in their last four. They're also off a loss at St. Peter's in Sunday's regular-season finale. But HC Tim Cluess has navigated through this event several times before, and Iona is once again among the nation's highest scoring teams (79.6 ppg ranks 7th). Four DD scorers include F David Laury (20.1 ppg), G A.J. English (19.5 ppg), and frosh firecracker G Schadrac Casimir (15.2 ppg and 43.8% beyond the arc), who pace the league's most-explosive outfit. Rider might be the hottest Metro-Atlantic entry, with wins in 7 of its last 8 games, and the Broncs have kept winning in recent weeks despite the absence of 6-11 C Matt Lopez, a Utah State transfer and leading scorer at 12.3 ppg...but apparently not yet missed.

Most regional observers believe the Manhattan Jaspers and entertaining HC Steve "Mini Vince Vaughn" Masiello have a shot at replicating last year's tourney upset if top scorer F Emmy Andujar (16.5 ppg) continues to get scoring help from G Ashton Pankey, hitting 56% from the floor over the past five games. King Rice's Monmouth played Iona very tough, winning once and losing by a point on the other occasion, and presents an interesting backcourt contrast with mini 5'8 G Justin Washington (13.4 ppg) and big 6-6 G Deon Jones (17.5 ppg last six). If a longshot is to emerge in Albany, most regional sources are warning about HC John Dunne's defense-tough St. Peter's, off of that Sunday upset over the Gaels.

Last year...NCAA - Manhattan lost vs. Louisville, 71-64. NIT - Iona lost at La Tech, 89-88. CIT - Canisius lost vs. VMI, 111-100; Quinnipiac lost at Yale, 69-68. CBI - Siena (champs) won vs. Stony Brook, 66-55; won vs. Penn State, 54-52; won vs. Illinois State, 61-49; won at Fresno State, 61-57; lost vs. Fresno State, 89-75; won vs. Fresno State, 81-68.

MEAC...Tourney March 9-14 at The Scope, Norfolk, VA (not the home court of Norfolk State, which plays its games at Echols Hall); First round pits seeds 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9; winners advance to quarterfinals, and so forth. Florida A&M is ineligible due to APR penalties.

Top contenders - NC Central*, Norfolk State, Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Notes... Like last year when winning this event and advancing to the Big Dance, Levelle Moton's NC Central is the clear favorite entering Norfolk next week, as the Eagles have lost just one league game over the past two seasons (and none yet in the 2014-15 campaign). Only two starters are back from last year's NCAA team, but NCC has been able to benefit from former reserve 6-7 F Jordan Parks, scoring 14.3 ppg and shooting 63.4% from the floor, plus transfer Gs Anthony McDonald (via Mississippi Valley State; 12.9 ppg) and well-traveled all-name Nimrod Hilliard (via South Dakota and Lamar; 11.0 ppg), plus Florida Gulf Coast transfer Dante Holmes (10.6 pgp). The Eagles shoot better than 49% from the floor and are clear favorites in Norfolk. If any team is to challenge, perhaps it will be hometown Norfolk State, with a potent scoring combo of 6-4 G Jeffrey Short (19.3 ppg) & rugged 6-9 PF RaShid Gaston (15.3 ppg & 9.65 rpg), and within four of NCC on Jan. 17. UMES also might be worth watching with its dynamic duo of 6-8 juco F Mike "SNL" Myers (16.2 ppg) and 6-4 combo G Devin Martin (14.2 ppg).

Last year...NCAA - North Carolina Central lost vs. Iowa State, 93-75. CBI - Hampton lost at Penn State, 69-65. CIT - Norfolk State lost at Eastern Michigan, 58-54.

NORTHEAST...Quarterfinals March 4, semis March 7, final March 10, all at home of highest seed.

Top contenders - St. Francis (NY), Robert Morris, Bryant, Mount Saint Mary's.

Notes...The Big Apple might have another NCAA Tourney entrant in Brooklyn-based St. Francis, which emerged as the team to beat in the NE Tourney when running away with the regular-season title. All after beginning the season with five straight losses. The Terriers start no one taller than 6'6 but get a lot of mileage from workhorse PF Jalen Cannon (16.5 ppg & 10.2 rpg), though Cannon played only ten minutes in the regular-season finale vs. Bryant, a game SFC lost by 10, ending its 9-game win streak. Barring Cannon's absence, the Terriers still rate as the favorite in this event. But that result gives Bryant and explosive sr. G Dyami Starks (18.5 ppg) some confidence heading into the conference tourney. Of course, we never want to dismiss the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, which has been to the postseason numerous times under HC Andy Toole and won at SFC on Jan. 24. The recent return to active duty of all-name sr. F Lucky Jones (14 ppg) is a boost for the Colonials.

Last year...NCAA - Mount Saint Mary's lost play-in game vs. Albany, 71-64. NIT - Robert Morris won at St. John's, 89-78; lost at Belmont, 82-71.

OHIO VALLEY...Tourney March 4-7 at Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN (not the home court of Nashville-based Tennessee State, which plays its games at the Gentry Complex, or Nashville-based Belmont, which plays its games at the Mike Curb Events Center).

Top contenders - Murray State*, UT-Martin, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont, Morehead State.

Notes...Steve Prohm's Murray State enters this week's tourney with the longest non-Kentucky win streak in the country (24 games), the last 16 of those vs. OVC foes. Postseason-savvy after last year's run to the CIT title, and with four starters back from that team, the Racers have the most efficient and effective attack in the Valley, led by soph G Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) and an offense that scores 78.8 ppg (ranks 13th), hits 48.3% from the floor (ranks 16th), and 39% beyond the arc. But keep in mind that the Racers enter the postseason having covered just 3 of their last 10 vs. the line. On their best night, the UT-Martin Skyhawks, coached by former Wyoming HC Heath Schroyer, have proven they can be a handful. (Note the UNLV connection at Martin, where Skyhawk AD Julio Friere was asst. AD, and from where he brought Schroyer from the Dave Rice staff, and from where Schroyer brought transfer G "Coupe" Deville Smith. scoring a UTM-best 14 ppg).

EKU was an upset winner in this event last season and recently got top scorer G Corey Walden (18.6 ppg; scored 35 last Saturday vs. Tennessee Tech) back from injury, while hometown Belmont and HC Rick Byrd, with several previous Big Dance visits, cannot be dismissed, especially with jr. G Craig Bradshaw (17.8 ppg) still in the fold. If looking for a longshot, perhaps take a peek at SE Missouri State, close in most of its losses and with one of the OVC's most-dangerous threats in versatile 6-5 swingman Jarekious Bradley (15.9 ppg; scored 28 in last Saturday's romp past Austin Peay).

Last Year...NCAA - Eastern Kentucky lost vs. Kansas, 80-69. NIT - Belmont won at Green Bay, 80-65; won vs. Robert Morris, 82-71; lost at Clemson, 73-68. CBI - Morehead State lost at Illinois State, 77-67. CIT - Murray State (champs) won at Missouri State, 66-63; won vs. UN-Omaha, 86-62; won vs. Towson, 85-73; won vs. Pacific, 98-75; won vs. Yale, 65-57.

PATRIOT...Tourney March 3, 5, 8, 11 all at home of higher seeds. Top four seeds receive byes in first round.

Top contenders - Bucknell, Colgate, Lehigh.

Notes...Most in the region figured Lafayette or Holy Cross would be the teams to beat in the Patriot this season, but instead it was the alma mater of CBS head honcho Les Moonves, Bucknell, emerging from nowhere to steal the regular-season crown and earn top seed in the conference tourney. Though, upon inspection, competitive losses to Villanova, Penn State, and Wake Forest in pre-league play hinted that the Bison were better than their 5-8 SU non-Patriot record. Bucknell (38.9% triples) can shoot it from deep, though top scorer G Chris Hass (15.4 ppg) has gone stone cold in a handful of recent games. The Bison are not untouchable. Colgate also took its lumps in a bumpy 3-10 non-conference SU ride, but its collection of sharpshooters hits 48.4% from the floor (15th nationally) and almost 40% beyond the arc. Looming ominously is preseason favorite Lafayette, sitting at mid-table at the conclusion of the season but with the most-explosive offense in the league (73.8 ppg and 40.2% beyond the arc), though it's 6-9 Aussie Dan Trist (17.7 ppg and 58% from floor while working solely near the bucket) that differentiates the Leopards from other contenders.

Last Year...NCAA - American lost vs. Wisconsin, 75-35. NIT - Boston U lost vs. Illinois, 66-62. CIT - Holy Cross won at Brown, 68-65; lost vs. Yale, 71-66.

SOUTHERN...Tourney March 6-9 at U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC.

Top contenders - Wofford, Chattanooga, Mercer, ETSU.

Notes...Defending conference tourney champ Wofford no longer had Davidson (off to the A-10) to worry about this season and quickly took charge of the league race. Vet HC Mike Young has taken several Terrier teams to the Dance, and the current version once again spins around savvy sr. G Karl Cochran (15 ppg), with jr. backcourt mate Spencer Collins often providing needed relief (such as Collins' 26-point effort in last week's crucial win at Mercer). Wofford, however, needs to be wary of stretch-running Chattanooga, coached by former Shaka Smart VCU aide Will Wade, who is going to be on many short lists of higher-profile schools looking for a coach in the offseason. The well-balanced Mighty Mocs won at Wofford on Feb. 12 and enter Greenville on a 6-game SU win streak. At 6'5, jr. G Casey Jones is a matchup headache and leads UTC at 14.2 ppg, with three others also averaging double-digit scoring. Mercer is over this season from the A-Sun, from where it qualified for the Dance and beat Duke a year ago, and vet HC Bob Hoffman also took the Bears to the CIT title a few years ago. All new starters this season, but Mercer remains a tough out with its deliberate style and solid defense.

Last year...NCAA - Wofford lost vs. Michigan, 57-40. NIT - Davidson lost at Missouri, 85-77. CIT - Chattanooga lost at East Tennessee (then a member of the Atlantic Sun), 79-66.

SOUTHLAND...Tourney March 11-14 at Merrell Center, Katy, TX. Central Arkansas, Houston Baptist, and Lamar are all ineligible for the postseason due to APR penalties.

Top contenders - Stephen F. Austin*, Sam Houston State, Northwestern State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Notes...SFA and Sam Houston are once again the top seeds in this event, and the Lumberjacks need no introduction after making some noise in the Big Dance last March when upsetting VCU in the sub-regionals at San Diego. Coach Brad Underwood, a onetime Frank Martin aide, has a deadly-shooting team that hits 49.1% from the floor (7th best nationally) and three starters, including LY's Southland MVP Jacob Parker, still in the fold from the noisemakers of last March. Note that SFA took highly-ranked Northern Iowa into OT at Cedar Falls in November. Sam Houston gets another crack at the Lumberjacks in the regular-season finale on Saturday, and the Bearkats like to do it with defense, allowing only 58.4 ppg (ranks 16th). The team Southland onlookers are keeping an eye on is dangerous Corpus Christi, the only league rep to beat SFA over the past two seasons (the Islanders turned the trick on Feb. 14) and for good measure having dumped Sam Houston last week. AMCC, coached by former Rice HC Willis Wilson, is led by do-everything sr. G John Jordan (15.2 ppg & 5.2 apg).

Last Year...NCAA - Stephen F. Austin won vs. VCU in OT, 77-75; lost vs. UCLA, 77-60. CIT - Sam Houston State won vs. Alabama State, 71-49; lost vs. San Diego. 77-72; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won at Northern Colorado, 82-71; lost at Pacific, 89-60.

SWAC...Tourney March 10-14 at Toyota Center, Houston, TX. Alabama State is ineligible for the postseason due to APR penalties; Southern U is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to failure to supply usable academic data to the NCAA, but will participate in the SWAC Tournament.

Top contenders - Texas Southern, Southern Prairie View, Jackson State.

Notes...The ineligibility of Alabama State has taken a top contender out of the league tourney. Thus, the path is paved for Texas Southern, which will have a hometown edge in the conference tourney that is being played a few miles from campus at the Houston Rockets' fancy Toyota Center. The Tigers opened some eyes in December with upset wins on the road at Michigan State and Kansas State, although this is one team that does not rely on the 3-ball, converting only 29.8% beyond the arc. The recent return of Nebraska transfer G Deverell Biggs (10.1 ppg) has given familiar HC Mike Davis his full complement of players, however, and the deepest roster in the SWAC deserves to be favored in Houston. With a 16-12 overall SU record, and with Alabama State ineligible, the Tigers are going to be the only team with a winning SU record next week at the Toyota Center.

Last year...NCAA - Texas Southern lost play-in game vs. Cal Poly, 81-69. CIT - Alabama State lost at Sam Houston State, 71-49.

SUMMIT...Tourney March 7-10 at the brand new Denny Sanford PREMIER Center, Sioux Falls, SD (not the home court of nearby, Brookings-based South Dakota State, which plays its home games at Frost Arena, or nearby, Vermillion-based South Dakota, which plays its home games at the Dakota Dome). Nebraska-Omaha remains in its transition period from Division II and is ineligible for the conference tourney, but can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT. The Summit League was formerly known as Mid-Continent Conference.

Top contenders - North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Oral Roberts, IPFW.

Notes...This wildly-supported event in Sioux Falls moves into the new 13,000-seat Denny Sanford PREMIER Center and promises one of the most crackling atmospheres of all postseason events. Regional observers believe there is no clear-cut favorite, though they expect the final might come down to a border war between the "States" of North Dakota and South Dakota. Both have recent NCAA Tourney pedigrees, with the Bison of NDSU having qualified a year ago (and upsetting Oklahoma in the sub-regionals), though HC Saul Phillips moved to Ohio after last season. Star Bison sr. G Lawrence Alexander (19.3 ppg) might be the top player in the loop. The teams split their regular-season meetings, though Scott Nagy's SDSU Jackrabbits enter Sioux Falls off a stunning 80-64 upset at the hands of state rival South Dakota. Oral Roberts, back in the Summit after a recent stint in the Southland, and stretch-running IPFW, which lost to NDSU in the Summit final a year ago and owns one of the most intriguing weapons in the league in 6'9, 295-lb., C Steve "Not That Steve Forbes" Forbes (13.9 ppg), should be watched closely.

Last year...NCAA - North Dakota State beat Oklahoma in OT, 80-75; lost to San Diego State, 63-44. CBI - South Dakota State lost at Old Dominion, 72-65. CIT - IPFW won vs. Akron, 97-91; lost at VMI, 106-95; UN-Omaha won vs. North Dakota, 91-75; lost at Murray State, 86-62.

WAC...Tourney March 12-14 at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Grand Canyon remains in its transition period from Division II and will be ineligible for the conference tournament, but can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT.

Top contenders - New Mexico State*, UMKC, Seattle, CS Bakersfield.

Notes...The exception to the rule of conference tourneys, as no one shows up for this event at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas unless NMSU happens to be playing. And it should be an Aggie show once more, even with the Las Cruces bunch not as big or as formidable as recent seasons. But the rest of the league is suspect, and thus NMSU is an overwhelming favorite once more (and the WAC's only chance to have its champ avoid a 16 vs. 16 play-in game). The latest international discovery of HC Marvin Menzies, 6-9 Cameroonian frosh F Pascal Siakam (13.5 ppg; brother James plays at Vanderbilt), has emerged as a new Aggie star alongside 6-8 Parisian F Remi Barry (13.4 ppg) and 6-4 Canadian skywalker Daniel Mullings (13.2 ppg), back after missing more than a month due to injury. Cameron Dollar's Seattle U is the only WAC team to beat NMSU this season, and it would be a shocker if Menzies and the Aggies don't qualify for their fourth straight Big Dance.

Last year...NCAA - New Mexico State lost in OT vs. San Diego State, 73-69. NIT - Utah Valley lost at Cal, 77-64. CIT - Grand Canyon lost vs. Pacific, 69-67.
 
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WCC Betting Notebook
By Marc Lawrence

WEST COAST CONFERENCE

Date: March 6-10
Venue: Orleans Arena
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada

SCHEDULE

Friday, March 6
Game 1 - San Francisco vs. Pacific
Game 2 - Santa Clara vs. Loyola Marymount

Saturday, March 7
Game 3 - Saint Mary's vs. Portland
Game 4 - Pepperdine vs. San Diego
Game 5 - Gonzaga vs. Game 1 Winner
Game 6 - BYU vs. Game 2 Winner

Monday, March 9
Game 7 - Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner
Game 8 - Game 3 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Tuesday, March 10
Championship - Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

TECH NOTES:

-- Favs 7-1 w/revenge… dogs > 8 pts off DD ATS win are 7-2 ATS…
-- Favs 9-3 off BB SU losses…
-- DD favorites 0-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins…
-- DD favs 0-6 off ATS loss… dogs < 4 pts are 1-6 ATS vs opp w/revenge…
-- #3 seeds are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS as favorites 5 > points…
-- #4 seed dogs are 2-10 ATS…
-- #5 seeds are 11-3 ATS as favorites < 14 pts… #7 seeds are 0-6 ATS off a SU win…
-- #8 seed dogs are 4-12 ATS.

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, Pepperdine

THE WAY WE SEE IT: Mighty GONZAGA has cut down the nets 11 of the last 14 years in this tourney while arriving to the title game all fourteen times in the process. The Zags’ 30-4 SU record all-time in this tourney speaks volumes and they are once again the team to beat as they continue their surge to earn a top seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Aside from being the most accurate shooting team in the nation, the Zags also rank in the Top 20 in 3-point shooting, defensive field percentage and rebounding. One note of caution, though: the Bulldogs are just 4-8 ATS as favorites of 12 or more points in this tourney, including 0-3 the last three...

Like Gonzaga, SAINT MARY’S has become a fixture in the finals of the WCC tournament, playing for the title five of the last six years while winning two championships in the process. And like the Zags, Mary is a glass cleaner with a +6.9 rebound margin. Good news for the Gaels: they are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS versus No. 3 or lower seeds in this tourney. The bad news: 1-8 SUATS versus No. 1 seeds...

BYU is playing its best ball of the season while dominating weaker opponents away from Provo this year, going 7-1 SU/ATS. The larger task at hand, though, will be overcoming a 1-12 ATS run of late in this tourney, including a 0-8 ATS record in games when not favored...

PEPPERDINE was the biggest spread-winner in the loop this season (17-8-1 ATS at press time, including 6-0 ATS as puppies of more than 5 points). The Wave is also riding a 22-9 ATS skein away from Malibu the past two seasons, including 14-3 ATS when playing off a win. We’ll continue to ride them here.

THE SLEEPER: SAN FRANCISCO
The Dons move back into their annual ‘sleeper’ slot thanks in large part to head coach Rex Walters and his dominating 92-62 ATS career mark in conference games, including 7-3 ATS in this tourney with Frisco. The Dons are also 12-6 ATS away from the city of Rice-a-Roni versus .666 or greater foes the last five seasons, including 3-0 ATS in this tourney. Now that’s a San Francisco treat.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON LOYOLA MARYMOUNT, PACIFIC, SAN FRANCISCO AND SANTA CLARA VERSUS BYU
The Lions, Tigers, Dons and Broncos each fell twice to the Cougars this season, setting up an inspired revenge scenario. That’s because BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven conference tourney contests against foes seeking same-season double revenge-exact (not to mention the Mormons’ overall struggles in this tourney). Once again, we’re betting the Tabernacle Choir is not capable of pulling the hat trick against any of these entries in this tournament.
 
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MVC Betting Notebook
By Marc Lawrence

MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE

Date: March 5-8
Venue: Scottrade Cente
Location: St. Louis, Missouri

SCHEDULE

Friday, March 6
Game 3 - No. 1 Wichita State vs. Winner Game 1
Game 4 - No. 4 Illinois State vs.. No. 5 Evansville
Game 5 - No. 2 UNI vs. Winner Game 2
Game 6 - No. 3 Indiana State vs. No. 6 Loyola

Saturday, March 7
Game 7 - Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4
Game 8 - Winner Game 5 vs Winner Game 6

Sunday, March 8
Championship - Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

TECH NOTES:

-- Teams 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 10-4 ATS off SU dog win…
-- Higher-seeded favorites are 81-10 SU & 57-32-2 ATS in first round games (no Donkey games)…
-- 11-3 off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU win w/revenge…
-- Teams off BB SU losses are 1-7 ATS w/revenge vs opp off BB SU wins…
-- 2-10 off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU loss…
-- DD dogs are 4-11 ATS off SU dog win…
-- #1 seeds are 18-5-1 ATS w/3+ days rest but only 1-6 ATS as dogs…
-- #2 seeds are 29-7 SU & 22-14 ATS since 2002 and 27-14 ATS as dogs or favorites of < 6 points since 1991…
-- #6 seeds are 4-24 SU…
-- #7 seeds are 3-11 off SU loss and 13-21-1 ATS L35 games overall (4-11 L15 ATS as favorites)…
-- #9 seeds are 1-6 ATS when 3-0 SUATS L3 games and 1-5-1 ATS as DD dogs.

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Evansville, Illinois State

THE WAY WE SEE IT: WICHITA STATE is the reigning king of the Valley and Greg Marshall’s troops put on a crowning performance last season, taking a perfect 35-0 record into the Final Four before tasting defeat for the first time. And while there was a serious lack of competition in the MVC last season, the Shockers certainly earned their stripes. They will, however, carry a gigantic bulls-eye on their backs this go-round but you can’t dismiss a 35-1 SU mark in conference games at press time the past two seasons. Is a third straight 30-win season in the offing? Perhaps, but it should be noted that, until last season, the last time Wichie had won this tournament was back in 1987...

NORTHERN IOWA more than lived up to its billing when the 5-returning starter Panthers battled Wichita State down to the final game for conference honors this campaign. An offensive powerhouse, UNI ranked No. 13 in offensive field goal percentage and No. 16 in 3-point accuracy in the nation this season. And they also lost only one game against the spread away from home this season at press time. Color them super-dangerous...

EVANSVILLE lived up to its preseason expectations (picked to finish 4th in the loop this year) and will be looking to earn its 20th win of the campaign in this tourney. The Aces will need to be all-in if they wish to reverse past failures (10-20-1 ATS, including 2-13-1 ATS versus No. 4 or higher seeds) in this tournament...

ILLINOIS STATE dominated .750 or weaker opposition this season, winning 17 of 22 games, but faltered against better foes, going just 1-6. The Redbirds have rewarded backers in this tourney the past three seasons with a 4-2 ATS wining effort.

THE SLEEPER: INDIANA STATE
The Sycamores more than held their own against sub .700 opposition this season, sporting a 12-6 SU and 10-7 ATS mark, including 4-1 ATS as a dog. They’ve also been a highly credible 8-5 SUATS in this tourney dating back to 2009. Watch and see whether head coach Greg Lansing’s 7-2 SUATS mark in games when seeking revenge from a same-season loss of more than 10 points comes into play should they hook Wichita State.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON THE NO. 1 SEED IN GAME ONE
The simple fact of the matter is numbers don’t lie. Not when the top seed in this tourney is a staggering 24-0 SU and 18-5-1 ATS in its opening game. Enough said.
 
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Bracketology Forecast
By The SportsBoss

2015 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on Friday, Mar. 4, 2015

This is our sixth installment of bracketology for the 2015 NCAA Tournament and comes as we finally turn the calendar to March! With that in mind we also give a breakdown of each conference that is likely to receive just one bid, examining where, when, and the format of their conference tournaments.

Remember, the format of some of these tournaments is massive & gives huge edges to teams that finished higher in standings – become familiar with a tournament’s layout before playing odds on a team to win their conference’s automatic bid! Below each conference is broken into THREE buckets:

1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good - teams highly likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid
3) Need Wins - teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season

**Teams are listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference with SBPI Rank shown first (pure stats based ranking which should be a better projection than RPI of performance moving forward) and RPI rank shown second for each team**

**One bid conference projected automatic bid winners are highest SBPI team remaining in tournament**

America East: Stony Brook #170/#115
When: March 8, 14
Where: Campus sites at highest seed
Teams Remaining: #1 Albany, #2 Vermont, #3 Stony Brook, #4 New Hampshire

American Athletic: SMU #51/#19
Need Wins: Cincinnati #77/#38, Temple #56/#35, Tulsa #79/#47

Atlantic Ten: VCU #11/#17
Looking Good: Dayton #47/#28
Need Wins: Davidson #74/#30, Rhode Island #66/#67

ACC: Duke #4/#5
Looking Good: Virginia #19/#3, North Carolina #13/#12, Notre Dame #69/#24, Louisville #9/#21
Need Wins: NC State #27/#45, Miami #53/#64, Pittsburgh #45/#59

Atlantic Sun: North Florida #212/#177
When: March 8
Where: Campus sites at highest seed
Teams Remaining: #1 North Florida, #3 USC Upstate

Big 12: Kansas #10/#2
Looking Good: Oklahoma #15/#18, Baylor #5/#10, Iowa State #16/#14, West Virginia #6/#23
Need Wins: Oklahoma State #26/#42, Texas #25/#39

Big East: Villanova #2/#4
Looking Good: Providence #14/#20, Georgetown #22/#22, Butler #8/#26, St. John’s #55/#33
Need Wins: Xavier #17/#41

Big Sky: Northern Arizona #176/#182
When: March 12, 13, 14
Where: Hosted by Regular Season champion
Format: Eight teams in straight single elimination tournament (bottom 4 teams in standings will not participate)

Big South: Charleston Southern #150/#137
When: March 6, 7, 8
Where: HTC Center (Coastal Carolina)
Teams Remaining: Top 7 seeds & #9 Longwood

Big Ten: Wisconsin #7/#6
Looking Good: Maryland #58/#9, Michigan St. #30/#29, Ohio St. #18/#32
Need Wins: Iowa #20/#36, Indiana #48/#51, Illinois #33/#58, Purdue #44/#63

Big West: UCSB #83/#86
When: March 12, 13, 14
Where: Honda Center (Anaheim, California)
Format: Eight teams in single elimination tournament (Cal State Fullerton is 9th team in conference that finished in last place & will not participate). Teams are re-seeded for semifinals.

Colonial: UNC Wilmington #138/#138
When: March 6, 7, 8, 9
Where: Royal Farms Arena (Baltimore, Maryland)
Format: Bottom 4 teams play 1st round followed by Top 6 & 2 winners from 1st round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Conference USA: Old Dominion #95/#46
When: March 11, 12, 13, 14
Where: Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex (Birmingham, Alabama)
Format: Bottom 8 teams play 1st round (Southern Mississippi will not participate due to self-imposed sanctions; Florida Atlantic, who finished in last place, will also not participate) followed by Top 4 & 4 winners from 1st round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Horizon: Green Bay #81/#60
When: March 6, 7, 10
Where: 1st Round at campus site of higher seed; 2nd Round & Semifinals at Valparaiso; Championship at campus site of higher seed
Format: #6 seed vs. #3 (Oakland) & #5 seed vs. #4 (Cleveland State); those 2 winners move onto semifinals to face seeds #1 (Valparaiso) & #2 (Green Bay) with winners of those games meeting in championship

Teams Remaining: Top 6 seeds

Ivy: Yale #54/#69
NO POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT

MAAC: Canisius #173/#168
When: March 7, 8, 9
Where: Times Union Center (Siena College)
Teams Remaining: Top 5, #7 St. Peter’s, #8 Siena, #11 Marist

MAC: Buffalo #50/#37
When: March 9, 11, 12, 13, 14
Where: 1st Round at campus site of higher seed; remainder at Quicken Loans Arena (Cleveland, Ohio)
Format: Bottom 8 teams play 1st & 2nd Rounds until 2 teams advance. Those 2 winners face seeds #3 & #4 in quarterfinals; those 2 winners then face seeds #1 & #2 in semifinals (to confirm the top 2 seeds receive byes to semifinals)

MEAC: Norfolk State #240/#159
When: March 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Where: Norfolk Scope (Norfolk State)
Format: Bottom 8 teams play 1st round (Florida A&M will not participate following finishing in last place) followed by Top 4 & 4 winners from 1st round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Missouri Valley: Wichita State #23/#11
Looking Good: Northern Iowa #78/#15

Mountain West: San Diego State #41/#25
Need Wins: Colorado State #84/#27, Boise State #60/#40

Northeast: St. Francis NY #207/#164
When: March 7, 10
Where: Campus sites at highest seed
Teams Remaining: #1 St. Francis (NY), #2 Robert Morris, #3 Bryant, #5 St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley: Morehead State #109/#210
When: March 6, 7
Where: Nashville Municipal Auditorium
Teams Remaining: #1 Murray State, #2 Eastern Kentucky, #3 Belmont, #5 Morehead State

Pac 12: Arizona #3/#7
Looking Good: Utah #12/#13, Oregon #71/#31
Need Wins: UCLA #34/#52, Stanford #32/#65

Patriot: American #184/#144
When: March 8, 11
Where: Campus sites at highest seed
Teams Remaining: #1 Bucknell, #2 Colgate, #4 Lafayette, #6 American

SEC: Kentucky #1/#1
Looking Good: Arkansas #24/#16
Need Wins: Georgia #38/#34, Ole Miss #43/#43, Texas A&M #39/#48, LSU #72/#53

Southern: Wofford #132/#49
When: March 6, 7, 8, 9
Where: U.S. Cellular Center (Asheville, North Carolina)
Format: Bottom 4 teams play 1st round followed by Top 6 & 2 winners from 1st round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Southland: Stephen F. Austin #112/#55
When: March 11, 12, 13, 14
Where: Merrell Center (Katy, Texas)
Format: Bottom 4 teams play 1st Round (Incarnate Word, Lamar, Houston Baptist, Abilene Christian & Central Arkansas all ineligible); those 2 winners face seeds #3 & #4 in quarterfinals; those 2 winners then face seeds #1 & #2 in semifinals (to confirm the top 2 seeds receive byes to semifinals)

SWAC: Texas Southern #283/#141
When: March 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Where: Toyota Center (Houston, Texas)
Format: Bottom 2 teams play in 1st Round (Alabama State & Southern are ineligible) with that winner joining the Top 7 seeds in quarterfinals playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Summit: Oral Roberts #134/#157
When: March 7, 8, 9, 10
Where: Premier Center (Sioux Falls, South Dakota)
Format: Eight teams in single elimination tournament (Western Illinois is 9th team in conference that finished in last place & will not participate)

Sun Belt: UL-Lafayette #139/#162
When: March 12, 13, 14, 15
Where: Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, Louisiana)
Format: Bottom 4 teams play 1st Round (Appalachian State is ineligible; one more school will also not participate); those 2 winners face seeds #3 & #4 in quarterfinals; those 2 winners then face seeds #1 & #2 in semifinals (to confirm the top 2 seeds receive byes to semifinals)

West Coast: Gonzaga #29/#8
Need Wins: BYU #31/#44

WAC: New Mexico State #158/#114
When: March 12, 13, 14
Where: Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Format: Seven teams take part (Grand Canyon will not participate) with bottom 6 matching up in quarterfinals (#1 seed New Mexico State has bye till semifinals) followed by straight single elimination tournament going forward

FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
Looking Good:20

Currently I project 52 of the 68 bids are earned.

Need Wins: 24

As of this moment we have 24 teams battling for those last 16 bids that remain “open”

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

For the remaining 16 open bids this is the way I see it currently (listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference; teams highlighted with a * are LAST FIVE IN):


Adjusted Ratings (As of 2/15/15)

TEAM RECORD C REC 1-25 26-50 51-100 ROAD NEU SOS NC SOS BEST WIN TOP NC WIN
CINCINNATI 21-9 12-5 3-1 3-3 1-2 6-5 1-1 57 29 2X 19 SMU 25 SDST
TEMPLE 21-9 12-5 1-4 1-3 3-1 7-5 1-2 72 55 2 KAN 2 KAN
DAVIDSON 21-6 13-4 1-3 1-0 5-1 8-4 0-1 121 243 17 VCU 138 UNCW
NC STATE 18-12 9-8 3-5 1-2 5-3 5-5 0-1 6 25 5 DUKE 40 BOISE
*OKLAHOMA ST 17-11 8-9 3-7 3-0 2-1 3-7 3-0 22 157 2 KAN 47 TUL
XAVIER 18-12 8-9 3-3 2-3 4-2 4-7 1-2 15 50 20 PROV @ 38 CIN
IOWA 20-10 11-6 2-4 2-2 4-3 7-3 0-3 25 111 9 MARY @12 UNC
INDIANA 19-11 9-8 2-4 2-3 4-3 3-6 1-2 31 113 9 MARY 19 SMU
*ILLINOIS 19-11 9-8 2-2 1-4 2-4 2-7 3-2 62 160 9 MARY 10 BAY
COLORADO ST. 24-5 12-5 1-1 1-1 4-2 7-4 3-0 129 89 25 SDST 72 UTEP
BOISE STATE 21-7 13-4 2-1 1-2 3-1 8-5 3-1 126 174 2X 25 SDST @61 STM
GEORGIA 19-10 10-7 0-4 3-0 5-2 7-4 0-2 27 78 2X 43 O MISS 77 FLA
OLE MISS 20-10 11-6 1-2 3-3 4-2 8-4 3-0 37 71 @16 ARK @31 OREG
*TEXAS A&M 20-9 11-6 0-3 0-3 6-3 5-5 2-2 89 135 2X 53 LSU 87 ASU
*LSU 21-9 10-7 1-1 3-3 6-2 7-3 1-2 94 169 @23 WVU @23 WVU
*BYU 21-8 13-5 1-3 0-0 3-2 8-3 1-2 80 21 @8 GONZ 65 STAN



FIRST FIVE OUT – alphabetical order by conference:
Miami, FL
Pittsburgh
Texas
Purdue
UCLA

Multiple bid conferences (total of 47 bids in 11 conferences; 21 single bid conferences = 68 bids): B10 (7)
ACC (6)
BE (6)
SEC (6)
B12 (6)
P12 (3)
AAC (3)
A10 (3)
MWC (3)
MVC (2)
WCC (2)

KEY GAMES TO CLOSE REGULAR SEASON:

Saturday, March 7:
Miami, Fla at Virginia Tech: Miami needs a win
Pittsburgh at Florida State: Pittsburgh needs a win
Oklahoma State at West Virginia: Cowboys need a win
Kansas State at Texas: Longhorns need a win
Xavier at Creighton: Xavier needs a win
Michigan State at Indiana: Hoosiers need a win
Illinois at Purdue: probably biggest game of weekend, both teams need a win
Colorado State at Utah State: Rams need a win
Stanford at Arizona: Stanford needs a win to get back into the mix
Georgia at Auburn: Bulldogs need a win
Alabama at Texas A&M: Aggies need a win
LSU at Arkansas: LSU needs a win

Sunday, March 8:
Tulsa at SMU: Tulsa needs a win to stay in the mix
 
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Sunday's Big 10 Tips
By David Schwab

The Big Ten regular season comes to a close this Sunday in advance of next week’s conference tournament and a few teams that figure to contend for that title will be in action in a pair of later starts on the day. The Big Ten regular-season champion Wisconsin Badgers will be on the road in a 4:30 p.m. (ET) start against Ohio State and in a 7:30 p.m. tip, Maryland and Nebraska square-off in Lincoln.

No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 23 Ohio State Buckeyes (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Ohio State -1

The Badgers cruised through conference play with a straight-up 15-2 record, but they were just 6-10-1 against the spread. They covered for the first time in their last five outings with a 76-63 victory against Minnesota as seven-point road favorites this past Thursday. The total has gone OVER in Wisconsin’s last two contests after staying UNDER in its previous six games. The Badgers’ success this season begins and ends with the play of senior forward Frank Kaminsky. He has been a one-man force with 18.4 points and 8.2 rebounds a game. Wisconsin is averaging 71.7 points per game while shooting 47.9 percent from the field.

Ohio State is currently tied for third in the Big Ten standings at 11-6 SU and it has covered in nine of those 17 games. It is 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) in its last five contests with the total going OVER three times. The Buckeyes have been one of the more potent teams in the nation this season with 76.9 PPG and they are ranked fifth in shooting the ball with a 49.3 field goal percentage. Leading the way has been freshman guard D’Angelo Russell with 19.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists a game. In this past Wednesday’s win against Penn State, he exploded for 28 points while going 5-for-8 from three-point range.

Betting Trends

-- The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record and they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 games played on Sunday. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games following a SU win.

-- The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, but they are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last nine games played at home.

-- Head-to-head in this conference clash, the favorite has covered in eight of the last 10 meetings and the total has stayed under in 11 of the last 15 games at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won five of the last seven meetings both SU and ATS.

No. 10 Maryland Terrapins vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Ten Network, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Maryland -2.5

Maryland has already locked-up the second seed for next week’s conference tournament at 13-4 SU in Big Ten play. It brings a six-game SU winning streak into this finale while covering in four of its last five outings. This past Tuesday, the Terrapins beat Rutgers 60-50 as seven-point road favorites with the total staying UNDER the 131-point line. The total has now stayed UNDER in seven of their last nine games. A duo of guards in Melo Trimble and Dez Wells have combined for 31.2 points and 5.9 assists a game, while junior guard/forward Jake Layman is chipping-in another 13.2 points while pulling down a team-high 6.1 rebounds a game.

It has been a long season for the Cornhuskers in the Big Ten with a disappointing 5-12 SU record and overall they are 13-16 SU with an 8-18-1 record ATS. They bring a seven-game losing streak into their finale while going a costly 2-8 ATS in their last 10 outings. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games. Nebraska is averaging 61.3 PPG while allowing 62.9 points on the other end of the court. One bright spot has been the play of junior forward Terran Petteway. He leads the Cornhuskers with 17.8 points and 2.9 assists and he is second in rebounds with 4.8 a game.

Betting Trends

-- The Terrapins are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a SU losing record, but they have failed to cover in five of their last seven Sunday games. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of their last 16 road games.

-- The Cornhuskers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss and they are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 12 games at home.

-- Maryland squeezed-out a 69-65 victory in the first meeting this season on Feb. 19, but it could not cover as an eight-point home favorite. The total went OVER the closing 122-point line.
 
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NCAAB

Maryland (-8.5) outscored Nebraska 22-3 on foul line, beat Cornhuskers 69-65 at home Feb 19, in game that was tied with 5:21 left; Terps won last six games, are 4-4 on Big 14 road, winning last two away games, by 3 at Penn State, 10 at Rutgers- they're 1-2 as road favorites. Been a rough year for Nebraska; they've lost last seven games, losing last two at home by 10-28 points. Huskers are 1-2 as home underdogs- their last win was Febrary 3 over Northwestern.

Cincinnati (-1) lost 63-50 at Memphis Jan 15, turning ball over 20 times (-9) in game they trailed by 8 at half; Bearcats won last four games overall allowing 51.8 ppg; they're 4-3 as home favorites- five of their seven wins at home were by 12+ points. Memphis lost two of last three games but won last three on road, including 54-53 win at UConn in last game- they are 2-3 as AAC underdogs. Three of last four Memphis games were won by either one point or in overtime.

SMU (+1) won 68-57 at Tulsa Feb 7, holding Hurricane to 28.3% from floor in what was Tulsa's first AAC loss. Mustangs had a five-game win streak snapped at UConn in last game last Sunday. SMU is 7-1 as a home favorite, with only non-cover a loss to Cincinnati. Tulsa won four of last five games, 16 of last 19; they're 3-1 as AAC dogs, but all three of their conference losses are by 9+ points. SMU is shooting 37.1% from arc, best mark in AAC.

Wisconsin lost three of last four games with Ohio State, losing by point at home to Buckeyes LY; Badgers won 12 of last 13 games, are 6-2 on Big 14 road, losing at Rutgers/Maryland. Wisconsin covered once in last five games; they're 4-4 as road favorites. Ohio State won its last three games after going 6-5 in its previous 11 games; Buckeyes won last seven at home after losing home opener to Iowa- they're 1-2 as Big 14 dog, but all three of those games were on road.


MVC tournament, St Louis
Illinois State has to bounce back after an emotional win over Wichita in semifinals; Redbirds won their last six games, last three by total of nine points. Northern Iowa won 18 of its last 19 games; losing only at Wichita last Saturday; Panthers beat State twice, 54-53 (even) in Normal Jan 25, then 83-64 (-7.5) at home Feb 11. Three Redbirds played 33+ minutes in semis; UNI had couple stress-free wins so far. Five of last six losses for Illinois State in this event were by 5 or less points or in OT.

CAA tournament, Baltimore
Hofstra advanced in last round against James Madison squad they lost to twice during season; now they face Wm&Mary team that beat them Jan 28 at home 100-79 (-4, shot 73% inside arc, led 42-15), then 80-78 (+4, shot 57% from arc; Hofstra was 13-31 on arc) at Hofstra Feb 22. Tribe is one of five original NCAA teams that has never been in NCAA tourney. Hofstra scored 73+ points in its last six games, but split last four- they haven't been past this round of CAA tourney since 2006.

NC-Wilmington beat Northeastern twice this season, 75-68 (+12) Jan 5 in Boston, then 66-61 (-1) at home Feb 14. Seahawks were helped in the second game by Northeastern going only 17-31 on foul line. UNCW took total of only 14 3-pointers in two games (5-14); they've won five of last seven games, had stress-free win over Charleston yesterday. Huskies had three starters play 34+ minutes Saturday in 67-64 win over Delaware, a game that Northeastern led by 4 at half.

Southern Conference, Asheville, NC
Wofford beat Western Carolina twice this season, by 19-20 points; they finished seven games ahead of them in standings, but unless they can beat Catamounts here, they'll be like Murray State, on outside looking in when Selection Sunday is here. Western won in OT yesterday; four starters got 37+ minutes, three got 42+. Wofford won six in row, 13 of last 14 games. Western lost finals of this tourney two of last three years, but Wofford won it three of last five years.

10-seed Furman pulled huge upset of Chattanooga yesterday, now faces Mercer squad that is just 4-3 in last seven games, with four of last five wins by six or less points. Mercer beat Furman twice this year, but by a total of nine points: 67-64 (-13) at home Jan 15, then 74-68 (-5.5) Feb 7 in Greenville. Paladins are playing for third day in row; they came into this event on a 1-8 skid. Furman is 12th-least experienced team in nation; too bad they can't shoot 3's (32.8%); Mercer doesn't defend arc well.

MAAC tournament, Albany
Top-seeded Iona beat host Siena by 3 yesterday, using thin bench total of only 23 minutes; all five starters played 31:00+- three of them played 36 or more. Monmouth was in NCAAs in '06 but was 0-4 in conference tourneys since then, until they beat Canisius by 6 yesterday, they used three starters 30+ minutes. Gaels are 9-3 in this event last five years, but so far won only one of those five years. Teams split couple of meetings this season, with two games decided by total of four points.

St Peter's is 16-17, 9-12 in MAAC but they upset banged-up #2 Rider yesterday so here they are; Peacocks lost by 5 (+3) in Draddy Gym Jan 7 (trailed by 19 at half), then lost 72-65 (-7) at home in OT to Manhattan Feb 16 (only 3-14 on arc). St Peter's won its last three games a 5-10 skid; this is only 4th time in last 13 years they won game in this event. Jaspers won this tourney LY, lost in final year before; they've won five of last six games with only loss to rival Iona.

Summit League, Sioux Falls, SD
Fort Wayne won eight of last ten games after starting season 8-11; road team won both their games vs South Dakota- Coyotes (+3) won 64-62 in Fort Wayne Jan 10, then lost 66-55 (-5.5) to Mastodons Jan 29. In those two games, Fort Wayne shot 69% and 72% inside the arc in pair of games with not many fouls or turnovers. South Dakota is #21 in experience in country; they've won five of last six games. Oddly, Fort Wayne is #20 in country in experience.

Oral Roberts beat IUPUI twice this season, 69-61 (-9) in OT at home on Jan 7, then 78-68 (-1) in Indiana Feb 11; Golden Eagles won seven of last ten games, three of last five on road- they outscored IUPUI 42-26 on foul line in two meetings this season. Jaguars are coached by former Arizona star Gardner; they lost seven of last nine games, with two wins by total of six points. IUPUI lost its last game at home in double OT to Omaha.
 
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'WCC Tourney'

Gonzaga Bulldogs upended 73-70 by BYU in it's regular season finale had the longest home-court winning streak in the country snapped, which had reached 41 games at the raucous McCarthey Athletic Center. Zags also saw it's longest streak in school history snapped, a mark that had hit 22 games prior to the defeat. After that brutal loss and perhaps costing Zags a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament the Bulldogs took care of business defeating San Francisco Dons 81-72 in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tourney but dropped the cash as 16.5 point favorites. Zags now set their sight's on Pepperdine in the semifinals. Bulldogs should get past Pepperdine in this matchup. Bulldogs have won twenty-six straight in this series with a profitable 17-8-1 mark at the betting window. However, you bet Gonzaga at some risk. Wave not only defeated and covered both matchups vs BYU this season they gave Bulldogs all they could handle twice cashing tickets in both games. When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets you should be aware of. Bulldogs have struggle against the betting line of late (6-10 ATS), Wave a thrived last thirteen in an underdog roll (10-3 ATS).
 
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Sunday's six-pack

-- JB Holmes leads by 5 at Doral; he and Dustin Johnson both aced the 4th hole.

-- Kentucky jogged past Florida, finishes the regular season 31-0.

-- Randall Cobb (4 years, $40M) re-ups with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.

-- A diver did go in the water at Doral to get Rory McIlroy's 3-iron.

-- Yu Darvish has a sprained elbow, may need Tommy John surgery.

-- For some reason, Jim Harbaugh coached first base for the A's yesterday.
 
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Ari Atari

Soccer | Mar 09, 2015

Arsenal vs. Manchester United

Bonus Play Arsenal to finally break United hex
English Football Association Cup, Round Six
Monday 9th March 2:45pm (EST)

It would be an understatement to say in the matter of Arsenal versus Manchester, the Gunners are 'Due'. Since the Fa Cup final win in 05' Arsenal, despite being clearly a superior football team at some points, so often seem to freeze versus United. Indeed in the last eleven attempts they have won one game over them. While history is against them and the pressure will be high on the current cup holders to defend the title, I fully expect them to go a step towards it on Monday night.


In truth neither team has been playing especially well of late despite picking up wins in the vast majority of games played. The form table for the calendar year has Arsenal second and United fourth but it truly doesn't tell the whole story, especially in United's case. Van Gaal is likely to play a very deep formation as he did in the first league game this season. Arsenal peppered the United goal that game with 22 shots, but due to a woeful performance from Wilshere, who is out of the game anyway and a freak inability to finish that day, they transpired to throw away what should have been a decisive victory.


Van Gaal knows that if United play an open game, Arsenal have Sanchez, Walcott, Chamberlain and ex United man Welbeck who can hit them hard on the counter attack with blinding pace. Being fed with passes from Ozil and Cazorla this is potentially devastating, and why no team in England at least will elect to play an open game versus Arsenal. Typically United and other big teams, in recent years have elected to play deep and soak Arsenals pressure hitting them on the break. Arsenal however versus Manchester City this year showed some maturity in attack and allowed City the ball a little more, allowing the opposition for a change, the ball in non threatening areas. I believe they will want to do this again, especially given United are at home for the game. If the aforementioned players can get on the ball on the break with United on the back foot I believe they will hurt United. If they can score an early goal, more so the case, and force United to attack, exposing themselves more at the back.


Mertesacker will return to the first XI given Gabriels injury. His only weakness is his lack of pace, but given that Wenger has put Coquelin in front of the defence (the first time he has played a combative midfielder since Arsenal regularly won things) and other than Di Maria, who is highly unlikely to get in a one v one situation with him given his positioning under Van Gaal, United have no real players of pace. Koscienly has matured this year and the two of them, with Coquelin acting as a shield in front of them should be enough to keep United out. A set piece is the only likely goal threat, especially if Fellani is chosen in midfield, but if he plays his lack of mobility will see Uniteds midfield outmaneuvered consistently as the game progresses.


Sanchez, while slowing down in the last month, has had an incredible debut year and his pace, trickery and instinct will trouble any combination of Smalling and Evans, if indeed Evans isn't retroactively suspended for the game. Sanchez scored a wonderful goal on Wednesday showing what he can do if given space or too much respect. Ozil has been in fine form since his return. He has covered more ground than any Arsenal player, silencing critics claims of his laziness. Giroud, the Monaco game apart, looks good and is in a rich vein of form since returning from injury. His stats this year make for very impressive reading. Santi Cazorla is likely to cause United headaches consistently in the middle with his two-footed, ability and has enjoyed a great year.As mentioned at the start of the piece, Arsenals results haven't told the full story of the season, but they are showing more signs of resilience and a testicular fortitude which they have been accused, often correctly so of lacking, especially versus United in the past. Coquelins added bite in midfield is the physical embodiment of this.


Van Gaal has admitted he is far from finding his best XI, and further from finding a system to accommodate them all. Van Gaal perhaps has the issue of too many cooks, with Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria, Mata and Herrera, among others all competing for a place in the attack. As we've seen it looks good on paper but it doesn't translate to quality football.

Van Persie is out injured though, as any United fan will confirm is something of a blessing, he has very much shown his age this year and will most likely be moved on in the summer.Rooney has been experimented with several times this year. It has been pointed out seasons before, that his passing range would allow him to drop deeper and play in a Scholes-esque position, but in truth versus a competent midfield he looks out of his depth. The game often passes him by and his pass selection becomes very questionable. He will likely play up front versus Arsenal but expect him to be well marshaled by the energetic Coquelin if he plays in a more advanced role.


This leads onto the Mata issue. Having paid a vast sum of money for him, it would be expected of him to play and play well, but with Rooney occupying his position and throwing in Di Maria into the mix, his chances have became more restricted, and again when given the chance he isn't necessarily in his preferred position.


Di Maria has been extremely disappointing after a great first few games. While being a more than competent technician, his greatest ability to hurt opposition is his pace. However the places on the field he receives the ball due to the positioning of his teammates, occupying the places he would ideally play, between the opponents midfield and attack, means that he can't employ his pace directly against the opponents nearly enough times per game. It becomes frustrating to watch these players taking up the same positions on the field, and often getting in each others way.


Falcao still has his great instincts, but his injuries have taken a very noticeable toll. His pace is at least a yard off what it was previously. Being dropped and rotated have evidently not helped his confidence and United are playing a very different game to Atlético (where he previously played to a consistent world class level). A combination of these things has left him looking a shadow of the deadly attacker we saw in Spain. In midfield Herrera has been quietly quite impressive when he has played, but isn't being given enough of a run in the team to get ahead. Ashley Young has actually had a decent year after a torrid time under Moyes. Januzaj has been very poor this year. Blind while very smart on the ball certainly lacks pace which Arsenal will look to exploit.


Van Gaal's 3-5-2 has been far from a success this year. If he does play it he has to fit 4 of the above attackers into various positions, assuming he plays at least one defensive mid, which leaves attacking players in unfamiliar territory for large portions of the game explaining why United have looked anything but a progressive, fluent football team throughout the course of the season. Almost all victories they have taken have came from grinding out victories instead of dominating teams as we saw under Ferguson. They have enough individual quality in these players to beat clearly inferior opposition. However versus teams of quality they look disjointed and very vulnerable.


I see Arsenal winning this fixture, and Sanchez being the difference maker for Arsenal. Additionally I see Giroud getting on the scoresheet. His record versus big teams is more than somewhat underwhelming but he looks determined to break that. Expect a big game from Ozil also, after Paul Scholes criticized him this week. If Arsenal repeat the performance and tactics they put in versus Manchester City this year, a clearly superior and more defensively competent side to United (though admittedly poor that day, caught out by the more mature Arsenal tactics), I expect Arsenal to score in both halves of the game and progress to the quarter finals.

SportsAtari

Bonus scoreline prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Arsenal
 

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