scores just 57... left 79 ... OMG I had It huge E
Michigan State (138') vs Louisville (-7) @ Indianapolis - 2:20 p.m. EST
Last year in the Elite Eight, Rick Pitino's Cards were turned back by North Carolina in a game that was played in the Tar Heels' back yard. Well, Louisville gets theirs today as before a huge throng of Cardinal faithful in Indy, Louisville will stamp its ticket to the Final Four with this thorough double-digit win and cover. Michigan State has had a nice season, but it's now evident that winning the regular season Big Ten title pales in comparison to what the Cards have accomplished this year in the mighty Big East. Disappointed a year ago at this stage, The Cards will not be denied this afternoon. Michigan State, 2-5 ATS last seven versus Big East foes, tends to struggle against long athletic frontcourts (see last year's Sweet 16 blowout loss to Memphis) and that's what Louisville has in Earl Clark and Terrence Williams. Tom Izzo is reluctant to play zone and the Spartans will have matchup problems with the Cards. MSU was outrebounded by Kansas Friday night while shooting under 40% and allowing the Jayhawks to make better than 45% of their shots. A repeat performance today and they'll lose by 25 to this Louisville team that shot 57% in blasting Arizona Friday. The Cards have won 13 straight games, shooting 51% from the floor, 42% from behind the arc while outrebounding their opponents by two per contest and forcing three more turnovers per game than they commit. They're on a 15-7 ATS run when laying points and they just have too much quickness and athleticsm for Kalain Lucas and the overmatched Spartans. Tom Izzo's club will play hard, they always do, but they'll be outclassed in the second half as Louisville wins this one going away.
LOUISVILLE (-7) 5000 Dime High Roller
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Michigan State (138') vs Louisville (-7) @ Indianapolis - 2:20 p.m. EST
Plenty of trends to support the under in this game, but that's only giving us great value as this one from Indy is sailing over the posted price. Both Elite Eight games Saturday topped the final tally and this one will, as well. In winning 13 straight games, Louisville is averaging better than 79 ppg on 51% shooting. They shot better than 57% in Friday's blasting of Arizona in going over for the third time in the last four games. Michigan State has also sailed over in three of four as this is a solid free throw shooting team picks up plenty of easy points at the charity stripe. There will be plenty of points in this one and Louisville, which has gone over in seven of its last eight as a neutral court fav of 6 1/2 to 9 points, often has moments of defenisve lapses. Big first half of points today, and then free throws down the stretch helps get this game over.
OVER (138') 5000 Dime High Roller
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Oklahoma (+7) vs North Carolina (165) @ Memphis - 5:05 p.m. EST
Love the points in this Elite Eight matchup as I will not be surprised in the least if Oklahoma wins this game outright. Yes, the Sooners have the Player of the Year in Blake Griffin (30.3 ppg in three tournament games), but OU is much more than Griffin as this team has comprable talent, size, depth and quickness to North Carolina. I'm saying the Sooners are uber quick with guards Tony Crocker (28 points against Syracuse Friday) and fast frosh Willie Warren. Then there's Austin Johnson, the lanky, long-armed guard who is defensively stout enough to give the Heels' Ty Lawson problems. Carolina, which is on ATS funks of 10-17 as a favorite and 3-7 versus teams with winning records, hasn't faced a team this quick in a long, long time. Yet once again, UNC is being asked to cover an inflated price that they will not be able to do. Flat out, North Carolina will be forturnate to survive and move on against an OU team that is 3-0 SU/ATS in the tournament and has covered five of its last seven neutral court games. They do an excellent job defenisvely of switching back-and-forth to zone and man defenses. Tyler Hansbrough has faced some talented big men in his career, but none that combines the strength and quickness that Griffin has. The Sooners have shot 54.4% in their three tournament wins, and while they won't shoot as well in this one, they will drain enough shots both inside and outside to stay inaside this beefy price.
OKLAHOMA (+7) 5000 Dime High Roller
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These two clubs have piled up some big offenisve numbers here in the Big Dance, but they both know a little about defense, too, and in this battle to see who is going to the Final Four, every possession will be hotly contested and this game will stay low. Bottom line is this is just too many points. The Tar Heels have stayed under in three of their last four overall, five of eight on neutral courts and five of six when playing on one or no days rest. The Sooners have stayed under in three of four as a dog this year and 18 of 27 when getting points the laast three years. When their backs are against the wall, the Sooners and Blake Griffin turn to defense. This one will be a big time physical contest and it will stay below the final posted price.
UNDER (165) 5000 Dime High Roller
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BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED --------GL--------GUYS
The fat man starts 0-2 today. That's 0-2, 0-2, 0-2! You are now 11,000 dimes in the red now. Good luck with the 2nd games.
