Sunday 3/29/09 service plays chatter / requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets
PICK: San Antonio Spurs

The Hornets should be primed for a strong effort at home following an embarrassing road loss to the Knicks on Friday.

The problem for New Orleans is quality bodies. The Hornets just don't have enough of them for this matchup.

New Orleans will be missing center Tyson Chandler and his backup Hilton Armstrong, both out with ankle injuries. In addition, Peja Stojakovic has missed the last 12 games because of back spasms and reserve forward James Posey may be suspended for this game.

The timing is especially bad for New Orleans because the Spurs have Manu Ginobili back. San Antonio has won its last three games. This will be Ginobili's third game back since missing a month and a half with an ankle injury.

Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker were in the lineup together for the first time on Friday since Feb. 11. They helped San Antonio build a 27-point lead on its way to an easy 111-98 win against the Clippers.

Finally healthy, the Spurs are trying to peak with the playoffs coming up in three weeks. They should be ready to give an all-out effort with their next game on Tuesday at home against lowly Oklahoma City and then not playing again until Friday.

This is a one-unit play for me.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

For Sunday we’ll head to the Elite Eight and play the North Carolina-Oklahoma contest UNDER the total.

I admit right off the bat that this is a total contrarian play. I know that all the money is going to come pouring in on the “over” in this matchup, and it’s easy to see why. First off, the public always plays these marquee games “over” the total. Secondly, the “over” hit in both of yesterday’s Elite Eight games and the “over” is 5-1 in the Tournament since Friday. Thirdly, both the Sooners and Tar Heels have been scoring at will in the Big Dance, and both topped the total in their victories on Friday.

But you see, this is the exact reason why the “under” is so attractive today. We all know that when the public lines up on one side of a particular play that the other side is almost always the way to go. And because the “over” is going to take so much action today, the oddsmakers had to inflate this line.

When you get down to it, it’s extremely difficult for a 40-minute college game to be played in the mid-160s or higher. That means, in essence, that both teams have to score well into the 80s. That ain’t easy. In fact, when you consider that only two of Oklahoma’s last 14 games have gone over 160 points and that North Carolina hadn’t exceeded 160 in five straight games before Friday’s win over Gonzaga, this basically is a very strong “value” play. Take this one UNDER the total.

5♦ N. Carolina-Oklahoma UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Weston

Today's Selection:

I told you yesterday to take the Over in the UConn-Missouri matchup. Did you listen? Well, it was a little closer than we expected, but we still nailed that Over to give us yet another Comp Play winner.

That puts us on a 5-0 Comp Play run and puts us at 13-4 our last 17 Freebies. And we’re making it 6 in a row today as we’re taking the Over in the Michigan State-Louisville matchup.

The number for this one is floating around 138 points, which these two will blow past.

Consider, first, that both of these teams have hit the Over in three of their last four games with Michigan State totaling, on average, 140.7 points per game and Louisville totaling, on average, 147 points per.

Also consider that the Over has come in for Louisville in 9 of its last 13 games when installed as a favorite and has come in 4 of its last 6 games in The Tournament when installed as a favorite of between 7 and 12 1/2 points.

There is a lot of offensive firepower between these two and it will be on display today. Take the Over easily in this matchup between Michigan State and Louisville.

3♦ MICHIGAN STATE-LOUISVILLE OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Rivers

For Sunday take the Mavs in Cleveland.

LeBron and the Cavs at home have been beyond unreal. This team has literally lost only once on their court and that came to the other great team in the NBA in Kobe and the Lakers.

Meanwhile the Mavericks are coming off of that home loss to Denver and have been very shaky away from Big D this season. Plus Josh Howard is injured which doesn't help things.

With all of the above said I can't pass up Dirk and the Mavs plus such a hefty number as I think Cleveland is ultra due to lose a game like this. No doubt this version of Mark Cuban's team is not as good as in years' past but there is still a high upside and I ultimately do believe that Cleveland at some point will suffer another home defeat, if not a few more.

Going 40-1 at home for a campaign is almost impossible. I don't care how unreal Lebron is and how great of an addition Mo Williams has been. 40-1 is simply ridiculous and the Mavs do still have players.

Rick Carlisle' squad is still fighting for a playoff spot and did recently win in both Portland and Phoenix, two tough places to play. Jason Terry is still around to help out Nowitzki and Jason Kidd has actually been pretty good this season among a few others.

The 59-13 Cavs are great and could win and cover against anybody on any night the way they are playing but they will lose some games before the season is out at home and this could be one of those games. Even if not, to get almost double digits is too good to pass up!

 

[mike viani]

genco

Dunkel Index

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game 719-720: Michigan State vs. Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 69.590; Louisville 80.129
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-6 1/2)
Game 721-722: Oklahoma vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 70.230; North Carolina 78.875
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-7)
<!-- / message -->

i like to see somemore goy there awsome 0 for 3 right now

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Craig Davis

Well, all I can say is “wow”!! Missouri misses a wide open layup with a second left that cost us a cover, not to mention Pittsburgh falling apart with three minutes to go, a four point lead and the ball. Just a small bump in the road in what has been a very good post-season for us. Our Bonus Play with Miami, however, was yet another easy winner and now makes it eight of the last 12 on the right side. Today, we make it 9 of the last 13 with Cleveland.

This one is pretty simple. Cleveland is good at home, losing just once all season. Dallas, on the road, is bad (17-20). Cleveland went into Dallas and beat them 100-81 as 4-point favorites back in November. Yes, I know Dallas can shoot the ball exceptionally well now that Jason Terry seems to have found his game again, but the Mavs are simply overmatched. If LeBron James isn’t beating them off the dribble, you can bet Mo Williams is hitting from deep and Anderson Varejeo is dominating in the paint. You see, Dallas has no answer for inside threats and this might be one of AV’s best games. And let’s not forget Big Z… Ilgauskas will more than be able to clean up what Varajeo misses. Don’t let their recent ATS blues scare you… this one has Cleveland written all over it.

2? CLEVELAND

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

Chicago at TORONTO -2

5-0 the last 5 days for free, including Charlotte on Saturday!

Tough spot for the Bulls who were on court Saturday afternoon at home against Indiana, and while Chicago was able to notch win # 4 in a row, things won't be so easy in this one, as Toronto did have Saturday off to get rested-and-ready for this showdown.

The Raptors are now playing free and easy, as they have won and covered the last 3 on this 5 game homestand.

Toronto also won the last meeting 114-94 in Chicago as the 2-point dog. That puts the Raptors at 5-2 both straight up, and against the spread the last 7 series meetings.

We have come to the time of the season when you don't find much "fair" value with teams that need to win in order to up their playoff stock. Such is the case on Sunday.

G-Man backing Toronto to make it 4 straight wins and covers.

3♦ TORONTO

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

Michigan State +7 vs. Louisville, at Indianapolis

Here's an Elite FREE winner for you today as we're on the college hardwood with Michigan State getting way too many points against Louisville.

Yeah, I know how shaky Michigan State looked against Kansas on Friday night while Louisville was off destroying Arizona. But I saw something I didn't like from Louisville, a bunch of cocky players celebrating a route. They think they're cruising through this round too, but they've got a big surprise waiting for them in the Spartans.

Michigan State was in a dogfight with Kansas, winning 67-62 as a one-point favorite. They fell behind by 13 in the first half and showed their mettle, rallying back and playing just like coach Tom Izzo wants, rebounding and hitting open shots.

The Spartans also had a fight in the second round, edging USC 74-69 as a four-point favorite. They know how to handle themselves in tough fights, does Louisville?

Michigan State is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in its last 10 games, and remember that this team is so well-balanced, they could have any of four players lead the team in scoring and they've got Goran Suton in the middle who controls the pace with his ability to shoot, rebound and defend. He had 20 points and nine boards against the Jayhawks.

Did Louisville do any work against an Arizona team that was as shocked they were there as the rest of the country? The Cardinals led by 21 at the half and they shot 57.6 percent from the floor.

Louisville is 0-5 ATS against Big Ten teams while Michigan State is on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 5-0 in non-conference action, 11-4-1 on neutral courts, 20-8-1 in the Big Dance and 8-3-1 as a 'dog.

This is just way too many points to pass up. This one will be a fight to the finish, there is no quit in the Spartans and they won't get blown out. Play Michigan State.

2♦ MICHIGAN STATE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Michigan State vs. LOUISVILLE - at Indianapolis, IN

For Sunday in the Big Dance, take the OVER in your Michigan State-Louisville contest.

Michigan State has been OVER the total in 2 of their 3 Big Dance games, and 3 of their last 4 dating back to the Big 10 tournament. We get the feeling that for the Spartans to hang with the Cardinals, they are going to be forced into showing some offensive fire power, and we feel that even if they get blown out, there will be enough points coming from the Louisville side for us to get this game in the OVER column.

Lousville sailed way OVER the price in their Sweet 16 laugher against Arizona, and they have now played HIGH in 3 of their last 4 dating back to the Big East tourney, and are on a 9-4 OVER clip their last 13 games when installed as the favorite.

We expect another high-scoring game involving the 'Ville before this one is all said and done.

Play the OVER.

5♦ OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon

LA Lakers at ATLANTA +3'

This is a tougher spot than you think for the Lakers. You see, they clinched the # 1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs with their win over the Nets Friday, and now have relatively little to play for. Oddsmakers don't get paid to be stupid, normally the Lakers would be a considerable favorite in this spot, especially with the Hawks struggling a bit, but not after clinching the # 1 seed.

Also, one has to factor in Kobe's ankle injury. Sure, it may be nothing, but will coach Jackson risk his star player's health after shoring up the # 1 seed? He will likely play, but I believe he'll be limited, and that's always good news if your against the Lake Show. Gasol stepped up big in Kobe's absence against the Nets, but the match ups are more favorable for Atlanta here is Kobe is limited.

Next, note the Hawks have yet to lose 3 straight home games ALL season! Its not like they lost to bottom-feeders either, falling to the Spurs and Celtics in back-to-back home games is nothing to be embarassed about! Look for the Hawks to come out with A LOT more energy than the Lakers tonight, who are much more liable to lose focus after clinching.

Finally, besides the public obvious adoration for this Lakers team, did you know the Hawks are an outstanding 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 home games?! Also, Atlanta is a solid 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall... So before you go blindly jumping on the Lakers bandwagon, you have to consider how well the Hawks are playing right now AND at home. Play here is on the home dog Sunday afternoon!

Take Atlanta plus the points over the LA Lakers in this NBA match up.

3♦ ATLANTA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Spurs/Hornets OVER 177.5

The Hornets have gone under the number in 8 straight games to create exceptional line value today. This is the lowest number facing the Hornets during their unders stretch and I expect them to beat it easily. Also, the Spurs have played to the Over in 4 of their last 5 games when faced with a total under 180. Plays over where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games are 94-38 since 1996 and Plays over on any team (Hornets) where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games are 58-18 since 1996. Bet the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

Oklahoma +7 vs. North Carolina, at Memphis

Did you get the feeling after Blake Griffin showed Syracuse how to actually the slam the basketball, since one of its own missed at the Orange end of the court, that the rest of the world is also missing something? Maybe Oklahoma is more than Griffin, who bullied Syracuse around for 30 points and 14 rebounds, while Tony Crocker contributed with a career-high 28 points.

And let’s be real, the Sooners were pulling away from the pride of northern New York midway through the first half, while Griffin punctuated the win with the now infamous noggin-knocking slam dunk.

Bring on the Tar Heels!

I don’t know if the Sooners are going to be dancing with Villanova and U Conn next week, not to mention today’s early winner – which is my 400♦ Line Mistake Winner #3 in a Row – but I do know this is going to be one helluva basketball game. One that I wouldn’t be surprised goes down to the wire.

North Carolina isn’t known for playing defense, mainly because it can score enough to compete better offensively than Carolina’s Bobcats, and that might bite them against a Sooners team that has plenty of mettle to combine with Griffin’s potency, such as guards Willie Warren and Austin Johnson, who will be spot on for this regional final.

Fact is, Oklahoma has solved issues that caused a late-season slide, and is on a 4-1 ATS run in its last five tournament games – a perfect 3-0 this year. As for the Heels, well, they’re mired in ATS slides of 2-7 laying wood in this range, 2-8 off an ATS win and a putrid 0-5 on their last five Sundays.

1♦ OKLAHOMA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The above posts are all comps.

 

[McSlickRik]

Id love to...

At least 4 guys total I'd say. The more the merrier = cheaper for each.

I am new around here and would love to get in on trying out the NYCwiseguys with you fellas....let me know if i can get in.

Thanks

 

[tberry]

Anybody getting Bobby Valentino?

 

[donlauer]

REDD has a 20* and 5* for today.....been on fire

 

[Sporting]

Victorious Plays

Just got their plays again!!!

Hope they can cash for all of us!!!

Here you have their plays...

Basketball VictoriousPlay:

Phoenix @ Sacramento
29 March 2009 / 9:00pm
Pick: 5* Phoenix -5 @ -110


Michigan St. - Louisville
29 March 2009 / 2:20pm
Pick: 5* Michigan St. +7 @ -110


Oklahoma - North Carolina
29 March 2009 / 5:05pm
Pick: 5* Under 164 @ -110


@)

 

[RDC-3]

i never hear anyone mention SquarePicks.com>>>theyre very good and post their record(win or lose) everyday.Theyr 21-4 just this week!

 

[Sporting]

Basketball VictoriousPlay:

Phoenix @ Sacramento
29 March 2009 / 9:00pm
Pick: 5* Phoenix -5 @ -110


Michigan St. - Louisville
29 March 2009 / 2:20pm
Pick: 5* Michigan St. +7 @ -110


Oklahoma - North Carolina
29 March 2009 / 5:05pm
Pick: 5* Under 164 @ -110

 

[boogiedownbronx]

ATS Tourney

4 units North Carolina
3 units Louisville
<!-- / message -->

is this the lOCK CLUB ???????????(<)<