Dr Bob
NBA
2 Star Selection
Philadelphia (-4 1/2) over SACRAMENTO
22-Mar-09 06:05 PM Pacific Time
The 76ers are coming off a couple of losses, so they should be focused for this meeting with a Kings team that tends to lose at home to better teams. Sacramento is just 4-15-1 ATS at home against teams with a win percentage of greater .333 when they are not getting at least 8 points. Philadelphia applies to a 188-84-5 ATS road bounce-back situation and my ratings favor the Sixers by 4 1/2 points - so the line is fair. I'll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 or less.
2-Stars at -4 1/2 or less.
COLLEGE
Opinion
Arizona State (+2 1/2) over Syracuse
22-Mar-09 09:10 AM Pacific Time
Syracuse has made a nice late season run that earned them a #3 seed, but Arizona State has been the better team over the course of the season and my ratings favor the Sun Devils by a point in this game and the math model picks this game even using only games from January on against quality teams only. I'll lean with Arizona State at +1 or more and my math model predicted total is 136 points.
Opinion
Wisconsin (+3) over Xavier
22-Mar-09 11:20 AM Pacific Time
My ratings favor Xavier by just 2 points in this game, so I'll lean with a tough Badgers team to at least keep this close. I'll lean with Wisconsin at +3 or more. My predicted total is 126 1/2 points.
3 Star Selection
Kansas (-7 1/2) over Dayton
22-Mar-09 11:30 AM Pacific Time
Dayton is a team that tends to play to the level of their competition, as the Flyers are 1-6 ATS this season as a favorite of more than 9 points and 5-2 ATS as an underdog after their upset of West Virginia in round 1. Using all games for each team would results in a predicted margin of Kansas by 10 1/2 points in this game, but I get Jayhawks by 8 points (with a total of 134 1/2 points) if I only use games against quality opposition, so the line on this game has been adjusted for Dayton's habit of playing up to their competition. When Dayton does lose, they usually don't lose close, as 6 or the Flyers' 7 losses have been by 8 points or more. While the line on this game is fair, the situation favors a Kansas team that also is better against better teams and is 15-5-1 ATS this season when not favored by more than 12 points, including 9-2-1 ATS more recently. The only problem with this Kansas team is that their defense is designed to be active and protect the paint, which results in giving up too many open 3-point shots. Kansas is one of the best teams in the nation defending the 2-point shot (42%, when 48% is normal) but the Jayhawks allow teams to make 33.7% of their 3-point shots, which is just a bit better than average. North Dakota State is a good 3-point shooting team that made 10 of 24 3-pointers against Kansas, but Dayton is not likely to exploit the Jayhawks' only weakness since the Flyers are not a good shooting team (33% 3-pointers and 43% FG overall). In addition to not matching up with Kansas very well, Dayton applies to a very negative 5-34 ATS round 2 situation. And, while Dayton does pull off some upset wins, the Flyers are 0-7 ATS recently after winning straight up as an underdog - so they are not likely to duplicate their first round effort. I'll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9 points.
3-Stars at -8 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9.
3 Star Selection
Pittsburgh (-9) over Oklahoma State
22-Mar-09 11:50 AM Pacific Time
Oklahoma State has been on a roll of late, covering in 10 of their last 11 games, but the Cowboys also have struggled against good teams this season. OSU is 15-11-2 ATS for the season but they are just 2-8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more and today the Cowboys apply to a very negative 5-34 ATS round 2 situation while Pittsburgh applies to a 21-1 ATS situation that won for me with Memphis yesterday. My ratings favor Pitt by 9 points using all games for each team and by 13 points using only games played against other good teams. I would still favor Pitt by 8 points even if I only use Oklahoma State's games during their recent 10-1 ATS streak - so the line is fair even if I assume Oklahoma State will continue to play well - which is doubtful given the negative situation that the Cowboys are in. Pitt plays much better, on a relative basis, against better teams - going 2-5 ATS this season as a favorite of 17 points or more and 15-5 ATS in all other games. I'll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 or less and for 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10 points. My predicted total is 156 points.
3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10 points.
2 Star Selection
Marquette (+3) over Missouri
22-Mar-09 01:50 PM Pacific Time
The Big East is proving to be as good as advertised and Marquette's guard heavy lineup should be able to handle Missouri's pressure today - especially with point guard Dominic James coming back from his foot injury today. Missouri applies to a negative 24-60-1 ATS letdown situation and my ratings only favor Missouri by 2 1/2 points even if James did not play and I'd favor the Tigers by only 1 point if James plays at his usual level. I'll take Marquette in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
2-Stars at +2 1/2 or more.
Opinion
Michigan State (-4) over Usc
22-Mar-09 02:00 PM Pacific Time
USC has been on an impressive roll lately, winning the Pac-10 tournament and then whipping Boston College in the first round, but the Trojans' run should end today. USC is a tough team, but Michigan State is a team that can match that and the Spartans are a better basketball team. My ratings favor MSU by 5 1/2 points and the Spartans don't tend to lose games like this. In fact, Michigan State is an incredible 77-20-2 ATS when favored from 4 points to 11 points. USC is 18-7 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more the last 3 seasons, but I'll lean with Michigan State at -5 points or less. My predicted total is 127 points.
2 Star Selection
Louisville (-11 1/2) over Siena
22-Mar-09 02:20 PM Pacific Time
Siena survived a double-overtime game with Ohio State, but the Saints apply to a negative 24-60-1 ATS letdown situation. Louisville, meanwhile, applies to a 21-1 ATS 2nd round situation and the Cardinals are the 2nd best defensive team in the nation on a compensated points per possession basis. Louisville's only flaw is an offense that sometimes has trouble in the half court set, but the Cardinals are facing a Siena team that allowed 43.5% shooting to a schedule of teams that combined to average only 42.8% shooting on offense. Siena's only hope is to force turnovers, which they do pretty well, but Louisville takes care of the ball pretty well and handled Villanova's pressure in their 69-55 win over the Wildcats in the Big East tournament. My ratings favor Louisville by 11 points and I'll take Louisville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less. My predicted total is 144 points.
2-Stars at -12 or less, 3-Stars at -11 or less.
2 Star Selection
Arizona (-2 1/2) over Cleveland State
22-Mar-09 11:40 PM Pacific Time
Cleveland State is a very good defensive team that has allowed 40.9% shooting and forces 16 turnovers per game, but the Vikings are challenged offensively (43.4% FG and 31% 3-point shooting) and Arizona is actually a pretty good defensive team after adjusting for the level of opposition that they faced. Arizona is a much better offensive team than Cleveland State and the Wildcats have at least 2 future NBA players in Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and perhaps Nic Wise. Arizona is an inconsistent team that is capable of beating the very best teams and capable of losing to teams that they shouldn't lose to, but the Wildcats are in a good situation today with Cleveland State applying to a negative 15-43-1 ATS letdown situation. When two teams meet in the 2nd round that won as lower seeded teams in round 1, the better seeded team usually wins and covers. In fact, teams seeded #6 or worse are 16-4 ATS in round 2 since 1991 if they are facing a team seeded even worse and the record is 11-0 ATS if they better seeded team is favored by 7 points or less (or getting points). My ratings favor Arizona by 3 points (with a total of 135 points), so the line is fair, and I'll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less and for 3-Stars at -2 or less.
2-Stars at -3 or less, 3-Stars at -2 or less.
NBA
2 Star Selection
Philadelphia (-4 1/2) over SACRAMENTO
22-Mar-09 06:05 PM Pacific Time
The 76ers are coming off a couple of losses, so they should be focused for this meeting with a Kings team that tends to lose at home to better teams. Sacramento is just 4-15-1 ATS at home against teams with a win percentage of greater .333 when they are not getting at least 8 points. Philadelphia applies to a 188-84-5 ATS road bounce-back situation and my ratings favor the Sixers by 4 1/2 points - so the line is fair. I'll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 or less.
2-Stars at -4 1/2 or less.
COLLEGE
Opinion
Arizona State (+2 1/2) over Syracuse
22-Mar-09 09:10 AM Pacific Time
Syracuse has made a nice late season run that earned them a #3 seed, but Arizona State has been the better team over the course of the season and my ratings favor the Sun Devils by a point in this game and the math model picks this game even using only games from January on against quality teams only. I'll lean with Arizona State at +1 or more and my math model predicted total is 136 points.
Opinion
Wisconsin (+3) over Xavier
22-Mar-09 11:20 AM Pacific Time
My ratings favor Xavier by just 2 points in this game, so I'll lean with a tough Badgers team to at least keep this close. I'll lean with Wisconsin at +3 or more. My predicted total is 126 1/2 points.
3 Star Selection
Kansas (-7 1/2) over Dayton
22-Mar-09 11:30 AM Pacific Time
Dayton is a team that tends to play to the level of their competition, as the Flyers are 1-6 ATS this season as a favorite of more than 9 points and 5-2 ATS as an underdog after their upset of West Virginia in round 1. Using all games for each team would results in a predicted margin of Kansas by 10 1/2 points in this game, but I get Jayhawks by 8 points (with a total of 134 1/2 points) if I only use games against quality opposition, so the line on this game has been adjusted for Dayton's habit of playing up to their competition. When Dayton does lose, they usually don't lose close, as 6 or the Flyers' 7 losses have been by 8 points or more. While the line on this game is fair, the situation favors a Kansas team that also is better against better teams and is 15-5-1 ATS this season when not favored by more than 12 points, including 9-2-1 ATS more recently. The only problem with this Kansas team is that their defense is designed to be active and protect the paint, which results in giving up too many open 3-point shots. Kansas is one of the best teams in the nation defending the 2-point shot (42%, when 48% is normal) but the Jayhawks allow teams to make 33.7% of their 3-point shots, which is just a bit better than average. North Dakota State is a good 3-point shooting team that made 10 of 24 3-pointers against Kansas, but Dayton is not likely to exploit the Jayhawks' only weakness since the Flyers are not a good shooting team (33% 3-pointers and 43% FG overall). In addition to not matching up with Kansas very well, Dayton applies to a very negative 5-34 ATS round 2 situation. And, while Dayton does pull off some upset wins, the Flyers are 0-7 ATS recently after winning straight up as an underdog - so they are not likely to duplicate their first round effort. I'll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9 points.
3-Stars at -8 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9.
3 Star Selection
Pittsburgh (-9) over Oklahoma State
22-Mar-09 11:50 AM Pacific Time
Oklahoma State has been on a roll of late, covering in 10 of their last 11 games, but the Cowboys also have struggled against good teams this season. OSU is 15-11-2 ATS for the season but they are just 2-8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more and today the Cowboys apply to a very negative 5-34 ATS round 2 situation while Pittsburgh applies to a 21-1 ATS situation that won for me with Memphis yesterday. My ratings favor Pitt by 9 points using all games for each team and by 13 points using only games played against other good teams. I would still favor Pitt by 8 points even if I only use Oklahoma State's games during their recent 10-1 ATS streak - so the line is fair even if I assume Oklahoma State will continue to play well - which is doubtful given the negative situation that the Cowboys are in. Pitt plays much better, on a relative basis, against better teams - going 2-5 ATS this season as a favorite of 17 points or more and 15-5 ATS in all other games. I'll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 or less and for 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10 points. My predicted total is 156 points.
3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10 points.
2 Star Selection
Marquette (+3) over Missouri
22-Mar-09 01:50 PM Pacific Time
The Big East is proving to be as good as advertised and Marquette's guard heavy lineup should be able to handle Missouri's pressure today - especially with point guard Dominic James coming back from his foot injury today. Missouri applies to a negative 24-60-1 ATS letdown situation and my ratings only favor Missouri by 2 1/2 points even if James did not play and I'd favor the Tigers by only 1 point if James plays at his usual level. I'll take Marquette in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
2-Stars at +2 1/2 or more.
Opinion
Michigan State (-4) over Usc
22-Mar-09 02:00 PM Pacific Time
USC has been on an impressive roll lately, winning the Pac-10 tournament and then whipping Boston College in the first round, but the Trojans' run should end today. USC is a tough team, but Michigan State is a team that can match that and the Spartans are a better basketball team. My ratings favor MSU by 5 1/2 points and the Spartans don't tend to lose games like this. In fact, Michigan State is an incredible 77-20-2 ATS when favored from 4 points to 11 points. USC is 18-7 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more the last 3 seasons, but I'll lean with Michigan State at -5 points or less. My predicted total is 127 points.
2 Star Selection
Louisville (-11 1/2) over Siena
22-Mar-09 02:20 PM Pacific Time
Siena survived a double-overtime game with Ohio State, but the Saints apply to a negative 24-60-1 ATS letdown situation. Louisville, meanwhile, applies to a 21-1 ATS 2nd round situation and the Cardinals are the 2nd best defensive team in the nation on a compensated points per possession basis. Louisville's only flaw is an offense that sometimes has trouble in the half court set, but the Cardinals are facing a Siena team that allowed 43.5% shooting to a schedule of teams that combined to average only 42.8% shooting on offense. Siena's only hope is to force turnovers, which they do pretty well, but Louisville takes care of the ball pretty well and handled Villanova's pressure in their 69-55 win over the Wildcats in the Big East tournament. My ratings favor Louisville by 11 points and I'll take Louisville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less. My predicted total is 144 points.
2-Stars at -12 or less, 3-Stars at -11 or less.
2 Star Selection
Arizona (-2 1/2) over Cleveland State
22-Mar-09 11:40 PM Pacific Time
Cleveland State is a very good defensive team that has allowed 40.9% shooting and forces 16 turnovers per game, but the Vikings are challenged offensively (43.4% FG and 31% 3-point shooting) and Arizona is actually a pretty good defensive team after adjusting for the level of opposition that they faced. Arizona is a much better offensive team than Cleveland State and the Wildcats have at least 2 future NBA players in Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and perhaps Nic Wise. Arizona is an inconsistent team that is capable of beating the very best teams and capable of losing to teams that they shouldn't lose to, but the Wildcats are in a good situation today with Cleveland State applying to a negative 15-43-1 ATS letdown situation. When two teams meet in the 2nd round that won as lower seeded teams in round 1, the better seeded team usually wins and covers. In fact, teams seeded #6 or worse are 16-4 ATS in round 2 since 1991 if they are facing a team seeded even worse and the record is 11-0 ATS if they better seeded team is favored by 7 points or less (or getting points). My ratings favor Arizona by 3 points (with a total of 135 points), so the line is fair, and I'll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less and for 3-Stars at -2 or less.
2-Stars at -3 or less, 3-Stars at -2 or less.
