STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/2/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 3/2/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Teams
-- Chicago won/covered eight of last nine games.
-- Warriors won five of their last six games. Toronto won six of eight.
-- Pacers won last four games, are 1-5-1 versus spread in last seven.
-- Charlotte won four of its last five games.
-- San Antonio won five of its last six games. Mavericks won four of their last five.
•Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost five in row, eight of last nine games.
-- Jazz lost five of their last six road games.
-- 76ers lost their last 13 games (3-10 vs. spread). Orlando lost six of its last eight games.
-- Oklahoma City lost three of its last four games.
-- Hawks lost 10 of last 11 games (1-7-1 vs. spread last nine). Phoenix lost three of its last four games.
•Totals
-- Seven of last nine New York games went over total.
-- Five of last six Golden State games stayed under.
-- Last seven Utah road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Philly-Orlando games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Charlotte games.
-- Six of last eight San Antonio games went over total.
-- Last six Atlanta games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Bulls won eight of last ten games with New York,
-- Warriors won eight of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Pacers won three of last four games against Utah.
-- 76ers lost seven of last nine games with Orlando.
-- Thunder won its last six games with Charlotte.
-- Spurs won their last seven games against Dallas.
-- Suns won seven of last ten games with Atlanta.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 88.1, OPPONENT 91.8.
-- INDIANA is 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.
The average score was INDIANA 96.9, OPPONENT 83.7.
-- NEW YORK is 18-6 (+11.4 Units) against the 1rst half line after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 51.6, OPPONENT 46.1.
-- UTAH is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog of 6 or more points versus the first half line this season.
The average score was UTAH 41.3, OPPONENT 48.9.
-- MARK JACKSON is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.
The average score was JACKSON 101.6, OPPONENT 99.4.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- PHOENIX is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 106.6, OPPONENT 101.1.
-- NEW YORK is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 98.2, OPPONENT 98.9.
-- ORLANDO is 8-25 (-19.5 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 46.7, OPPONENT 52.8.
-- UTAH is 93-40 UNDER (+49.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 42.1, OPPONENT 46.3.
-- RICK CARLISLE is 42-17 ATS (+23.3 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was CARLISLE 103.4, OPPONENT 105.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GOLDEN STATE) - a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(35-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.4%, +30.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.9
The average score in these games was: Team 101.2, Opponent 94.7 (Average point differential = +6.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-2, +19.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (83-52, +22 units).
-- Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game.
(34-9 since 1996.) (79.1%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-11)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 102.6, Opponent 98.7 (Average point differential = +3.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (47.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (TORONTO) - an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) after 42+ games, after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(45-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +32.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.3
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 96.9 (Total points scored = 196.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 34 (61.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-7).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (101-61).
-- Play On - Road teams of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (DALLAS) – an excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(57-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.0%, +38.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.5, Opponent 50.6 (Average first half point differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (120-97).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
(35-8 since 1996.) (81.4%, +26.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 104.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.7, Opponent 47.9 (Total first half points scored = 98.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#801 NEW YORK @ #802 CHICAGO
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Bulls -6.5, Total: 186) - The New York Knicks are not just losing, they are getting blown out. The Knicks will try to end their latest slide at five straight when they open up a three-game road trip at the Chicago Bulls on Sunday. New York dropped its last two games by a combined 49 points and lost 11 of the last 13 to fall well off the pace in the Eastern Conference, a development guard J.R. Smith attributed to a lack of heart.
“It’s not a mental thing, it’s a heart thing,” Smith told reporters after the 126-103 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Friday. “…You gotta play with effort, play with heart. I mean, I’m not condoning knocking somebody down and hurting nobody. But we gotta do something.” One thing the Bulls are never accused of is a lack of heart. Chicago was left for dead after Derrick Rose’s season-ending knee injury and the trade of Luol Deng but has instead won three straight and eight of nine to pull into a tie for the third-best record in the East.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (21-38 SU, 24-35-0 ATS): New York gave up 73 points in the first half to the Warriors and was never in the game after the break. Carmelo Anthony put up 23 points and 16 rebounds in the setback and continues to post big numbers despite the losses. The All-Star forward disagreed with Smith’s characterization of the team. “I don’t think it’s heart, man,” Anthony told reporters. “That’s his opinion; everybody has their own opinion.... But for me it’s just consistency and it’s been all year long.”
•ABOUT THE BULLS (32-26 SU, 30-28-0 ATS): Chicago is built on a strong defensive system and is allowing the second-fewest points in the league at an average of 92.3 - a fact that helps cover up for an offense that at times lacks firepower. “I think when you get a team that’s willing to sacrifice for each other , to play for each other, I think you can build a mental toughness that’s necessary to succeed,” Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters. “I think there’s a commitment by each player to each other to not let the group down.” Chicago has held its last nine opponents to an average of 88.7 points.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Knicks suffered an 82-81 loss at Chicago on Oct. 31 to fall to 1-1, marking the last time the team was at .500.... Chicago F Taj Gibson is averaging 18 points and 9.6 rebounds over the last five games, with three double-doubles in that span.... New York C Tyson Chandler is averaging 15.8 rebounds in the last four games.... The Bulls are 0-7 versus the spread in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting percent defense of more than 46% this season.... New York is 47-29 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the spread 535 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 622 times, while NEW YORK won 354 times. In 1000 simulated games, 594 games went over the total, while 372 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the first half line 517 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 483 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 596 games went over first half total, while 404 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW YORK is 33-31 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 40-24 straight up against NEW YORK since 1996.
--31 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--NEW YORK is 36-28 versus the first half line when playing against CHICAGO since 1996.
--31 of 61 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Knicks are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
--Knicks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
--Knicks are 0-4 ATS L4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS l4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more .
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#803 GOLDEN STATE @ #804 TORONTO
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), SportsNet (Toronto) - Line: Warriors -2, Total: 201.5) - The Toronto Raptors got a nice long break after a triple-overtime loss to the Washington Wizards on Thursday and will get back to work securing the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference when they host the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. The Raptors had won six of seven before the marathon setback and are tied with the Chicago Bulls for the third-best mark in the East. The Warriors are winners of five of six after cruising past the New York Knicks on Friday.
Stephen Curry posted a triple-double with 27 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in the 126-103 win over the Knicks as Golden State improved to 2-1 on a six-game trip through the East. The All-Star guard bounced back from one of his worst performances of the season - nine points, five assists and five turnovers in a loss at Chicago - by spreading the ball around before getting hot from the floor. Toronto hopes to have its own dynamic point guard, Kyle Lowry, ready to go on Sunday after an ankle injury slowed him on Thursday.
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (36-23 SU, 28-28-3 ATS): Golden State gets a lot of attention for the big offensive numbers and outside shooting by the likes of Curry and Klay Thompson, but it is winning games on the defensive end. The Warriors rank third in the NBA in field-goal percentage defense (43.3) and have limited their last six opponents to an average of 96.5 points. The Knicks struggled to 37.9 percent from the field in Friday’s game and turned the ball over 18 times as Golden State dictated the pace. “We played well defensively,” Thompson told reporters. “I thought we got back to what we do well and it is huge going into playing a good Toronto team.”
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (32-26 SU, 34-23-1 ATS): Lowry and small forward Terrence Ross (ankle) are both game-time decisions for Sunday. Lowry came up a rebound shy of a triple-double while logging 54 minutes in the 134-129 setback against the Wizards on Thursday is putting up an average of 19.7 points over the last three contests. If he can’t go, Greivis Vasquez will get a bigger chunk of playing time at the point guard spot. Toronto suffered a 112-103 loss at Golden State on Dec. 3 despite 20 points and nine assists from Lowry but is 26-15 since that loss and is running away with the Atlantic Division.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Warriors have taken three straight and eight of nine in the series.... Toronto G DeMar DeRozan has gone for 30 or more points three times in the last five games and is averaging 27.4 points in that span.... Golden State F David Lee is averaging just 22.5 minutes in two games while working his way back from a bout with the flu.... Toronto is 1-9 versus the spread in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last two seasons.... The Warriors are 33-19 against the spread versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 560 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 414 times. *EDGE against the spread =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 501 times, while GOLDEN STATE won 466 times. In 1000 simulated games, 559 games went under the total, while 441 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 528 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 435 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 558 games went under first half total, while 442 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GOLDEN STATE is 19-12 against the spread versus TORONTO since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 19-13 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--15 of 29 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 versus the first half line when playing against TORONTO since 1996.
--16 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Warriors are 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Warriors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Toronto.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Warriors are 0-4 ATS L4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 5-0 in Warriors L5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points.
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#805 PHILADELPHIA @ #806 ORLANDO
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, CSN Philadelphia, FSN Florida (Orlando) - Line: Orlando -11, Total: 214) - The Orlando Magic have struggled all season on the road, but have been a different team on their home court of late with six wins in seven games. The Magic can even their record at home Sunday with a victory over the Philadelphia 76ers, who have lost 13 consecutive contests. It will be the final matchup of the two leading candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year honors -- Orlando’s Victor Oladipo and Michael Carter-Williams of Philadelphia -- after the Magic took two of the first three meetings.
The Magic lost at Miami 112-98 on Saturday, allowing 58.1 percent shooting while falling to a league-worst 4-28 away from home. Leading scorer Arron Afflalo did not play in any of the four games on the trip due to an ankle injury and illness as Orlando averaged 98.8 points. The Magic will have to contain veteran forward Thaddeus Young, who has averaged 23.3 points in three games against them this season.
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-44 SU, 22-37-0 ATS): Philadelphia allowed Washington to make 12-of-26 from 3-point range in a 122-103 loss at home Saturday on the night the franchise retired the number of former 76ers great Allen Iverson. Guard Tony Wroten led Philadelphia with 19 points off the bench, increasing his average to 17.2 over the last five games after going scoreless against Utah on Feb. 12. Carter-Williams is 8-of-27 from the field the last two games after a stretch in which he scored at least 19 in four of five contests.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (18-43 SU, 25-34-2 ATS): Center Nikola Vucevic continues to shine, producing 18 points and 10 rebounds against Miami on Saturday for his 11th double-double in his last 15 games since returning from a concussion. His backup, Kyle O’Quinn, has shown plenty of improvement and he produced 14 points and 15 rebounds Saturday. Tobias Harris is averaging 18.8 points over the last six and Oladipo has scored 20.3 per game against the 76ers this season, slightly better than Carter-Williams (19.3) in the matchup.
•PREGAME NOTES: Magic F Maurice Harkless, who joined the starting lineup after Afflalo’s injury, is averaging 16.3 points in his last three outings.... The 76ers have not won a season series against the Magic since 1998-99.... Orlando G Jameer Nelson, the franchise’s all-time leader in assists, is two rebounds shy of 2,000 in his career.... Philadelphia is 18-33 versus the spread versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots/game on the season this season.... The Magic are 9-23 against the spread poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 514 times, while ORLANDO covered the spread 463 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO won the game straight up 765 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 210 times. In 1000 simulated games, 836 games went under the total, while 143 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 557 times, while ORLANDO covered the first half line 443 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 770 games went under first half total, while 204 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ORLANDO is 46-29 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--ORLANDO is 51-26 straight up against PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--38 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ORLANDO is 38-36 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--38 of 73 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--76ers are 7-21 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Orlando.
•RECENT TRENDS
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Under is 8-0 in 76ers last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Magic are 5-0 ATS L5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
--Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 4-0 in Magic last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
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#807 UTAH @ #808 INDIANA
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ROOT (Utah), FSN Indiana - Line: Pacers -12.5, Total: 189.5) - The Indiana Pacers look for their fifth winning streak of five or more games this season when they host the Utah Jazz on Sunday. Indiana made it four straight victories when it defeated the Boston Celtics 102-97 on Saturday and continues to hold a two-game lead over the Miami Heat in the battle for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Utah has lost four of its last six contests and owns a porous 7-21 road record.
The Jazz fell to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday to open a six-game road trip through the East and won’t play at home again until March 10. All-Star forward Paul George had 25 points, eight rebounds and three steals in Indiana’s victory over Boston and is averaging 26 points in six games since the break. The Pacers also received a solid outing from newcomer Evan Turner (17 points in 26 minutes) against Boston. “Good balance amongst the starters,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters, “and Evan Turner gave us a big lift throughout the whole game, but in particular down the stretch.”
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (21-37 SU, 26-29-3 ATS): After a strong run prior to the All-Star break, veteran forward Marvin Williams has struggled mightily since play resumed and has scored five or fewer points in four of the past five outings. Williams strung together three consecutive 20-point outings in early February before falling back into a rut and has scored seven total points on 3-of-15 shooting over Utah’s last two games. The Jazz shot just 35 percent from the field in the 99-79 loss to Cleveland but 14 of their 28 baskets were from 3-point range.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (45-13 SU, 33-24-1 ATS): George has failed to reach 20 points just once in the last six games and he excelled down the stretch against Boston with eight points during the decisive 14-4 run. He wasn’t thrilled with his play over the first three quarters and finished 9-of-20 from the field. “I missed too many easy shots (early) and I told myself when it comes back around that I have to make my shots,” George said afterward. “So I just locked in my focus and my teammates found me.”
•PREGAME NOTES: George scored 19 points when the Pacers notched a 95-86 road win over the Jazz on Dec. 4.... Utah C Derrick Favors had 22 points and 13 rebounds in the December meeting.... Pacers PG George Hill (shoulder) is expected to miss his second straight game.... The Jazz are 2-13 versus the spread in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last three seasons.... Indiana is 6-20 against the spread after a win by six points or less over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 605 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 395 times. *EDGE against the spread =UTAH. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 707 times, while UTAH won 277 times. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went over the total, while 466 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 625 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 375 times. *EDGE against first half line =UTAH. In 1000 simulated games, 514 games went over first half total, while 486 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 17-15 against the spread versus UTAH since 1996.
--INDIANA is 16-16 straight up against UTAH since 1996.
--19 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--UTAH is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 7-0 in Jazz last 7 road games.
--Under is 7-1-1 in Jazz L9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Under is 4-0 in Jazz L4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 3-0-1 in Pacers last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 3-0-1 in Pacers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more.
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#809 DALLAS @ #810 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, NBATV, FSN Southwest (Dallas, San Antonio) - Line: Spurs -5.5, Total: 211.5) - San Antonio point guard Tony Parker is a game-time decision when the Spurs host the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Parker has missed the previous six games with an assortment of injuries – shin, groin, hamstring, back and hand – and will need coach Gregg Popovich to sign off on his return prior to tip-off. The Mavericks have won 10 of their last 13 games but are coming off a disappointing 100-91 loss to the Chicago Bulls as they blew a 16-point lead.
The Spurs are 5-1 while Parker heals up with power forward Tim Duncan leading the way. The future Hall of Famer had 17 points and 16 rebounds in Friday’s 92-82 victory over the Charlotte Bobcats and he moved into 12th place in the NBA history with 13,753 rebounds, passing former Houston Rockets star Hakeem Olajuwon (13,748). “Obviously, I watched him growing up playing and played against him for a little while,” Duncan said of Olajuwon afterward. “I respect what he did throughout his career. It’s an honor.”
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (36-24 SU, 33-27-0 ATS): The collapse against Chicago continued a season-long pattern of Dallas letting double-digit leads get away. Forward Dirk Nowitzki was irritated with the latest one, which prevented the Mavericks from moving into sixth place in the Western Conference. “First-half leads mean nothing in this league,” Nowitzki said afterward. “I’d rather not be up 16 to be quite honest with you in the first half. A 16-point lead in the first half means a couple of stops, a couple of threes and that lead is gone.”
•ABOUT THE SPURS (41-16 SU, 28-30-0 ATS): Parker understands the big picture that Popovich is always focused on, so he eventually relented when his head coach told him rest was the prudent approach after the All-Star break. “I didn’t want to realize because I want to play,” Parker told reporters. “But I trust Pop’s judgment and he felt it was the right time to get some rest before the playoffs. It was hard at the beginning but like I said, I trust him. My body definitely feels better now and I feel like I’m getting close to 100 percent.”
•PREGAME NOTES: San Antonio is 2-0 against Dallas this season and has won the last seven meetings and 11 of the past 13 regular-season meetings.... Spurs G Marco Belinelli is 19-of-35 from 3-point range over the past seven games.... Dallas G Monta Ellis recorded both his 1,000th career steal and 500th career 3-pointer during the loss to the Bulls.... San Antonio is 7-0 against the spread when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.... The Mavericks are 12-4 versus the spread in road games versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 569 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 431 times. *EDGE against the spread =DALLAS. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 565 times, while DALLAS won 413 times. In 1000 simulated games, 569 games went under the total, while 431 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 562 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 398 times. *EDGE against first half line =DALLAS. In 1000 simulated games, 543 games went under first half total, while 457 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 51-43 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 60-39 straight up against DALLAS since 1996.
--49 of 97 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-44 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--52 of 97 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.
--Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--Mavericks are 11-2 ATS L13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 road games.
--Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Over is 10-2 in Spurs last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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#811 CHARLOTTE @ #812 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, SportSouth (Charlotte), FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City) - Thunder -9.5, Total: 203.5) - After a three-game hiccup, the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder looked more like themselves last time out, and they'll try to make it two straight victories when they host the Charlotte Bobcats on Sunday. The Thunder have dominated the series recently, winning six straight meetings dating to 2010. These aren't the same sorry Bobcats, though — Charlotte sits seventh in the Eastern Conference and is in position to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2009-10 campaign.
The Thunder nearly wasted a big lead of their own Friday, letting most of a 19-point advantage slip away before holding on for a 113-107 win over visiting Memphis to snap a three-game skid. "It feels great," Oklahoma City Thunder star Kevin Durant told reporters. "You never take it for granted. We learned a lesson after losing three in a row. It's tough to swallow, so it's good to get a W." The Bobcats had their season-high four-game winning streak snapped Friday, squandering a 14-point lead in a 92-82 loss at San Antonio.
•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (27-31 SU, 32-23-3 ATS): Charlotte has experienced a dramatic turnaround under first-year coach Steve Clifford and is one win shy of matching its victory total over the past two seasons combined. The transformation has taken place primarily at the defensive end, where the Bobcats rank fourth in the NBA at 96.7 points allowed per game — six points lower than last season's average. At the offensive end, Charlotte leans heavily on big man Al Jefferson, who has put up 20 or more points in 18 of his last 21 games and topped 30 points in seven of his last 13.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (44-15 SU, 32-26-1 ATS): Oklahoma City had a period of adjustment after getting point guard Russell Westbrook back from a 27-game absence due to a knee injury, but the Thunder settled in at the defensive end against the Grizzlies. It didn't hurt that they got 37 points from Durant — his 35th game this season with 30 or more. The Thunder might be shorthanded in the backcourt, as shooting guard Thabo Sefolosha left Friday's game with a strained left calf and is considered day-to-day.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Thunder are 24-6 at home, where they've recorded 144 consecutive sellout crowds.... Charlotte's 12 road wins are one shy of the single-season franchise record.... Oklahoma City is 22-2 when recording more assists than the opposition.... The Bobcats are 13-3 Under in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... The Thunder 23-11 Under after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the spread 505 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 495 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 722 times, while CHARLOTTE won 255 times. In 1000 simulated games, 518 games went under the total, while 482 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the first half line 523 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went under first half total, while 491 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-8 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-5 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 versus the first half line when playing against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Bobcats are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
--Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
--Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Bobcats last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Thunder are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Thunder are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#813 ATLANTA @ #814 PHOENIX
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, SportSouth (Atlanta), FSN Arizona (Phoenix) - Line: Suns -8.5, Total: 216) - The two teams scrambling to hang onto the final playoff spot in their respective conferences square off Sunday when the Phoenix Suns host the spiraling Atlanta Hawks. The Suns, who are one game clear of ninth-place Memphis in the Western Conference, snapped a three-game skid with a 116-104 win over New Orleans on Friday. The Hawks are trying to right the ship after a 115-104 loss at Boston dropped them a season-worst five games below .500.
Guard Goran Dragic has kept the Suns afloat in the loaded West, setting career highs for points three times in February including 40 points against the Pelicans — a performance that earned him "M-V-P" chants from the Phoenix faithful. "I never imagined they would cheer that for me," Dragic told reporters. "It is a great feeling.... It is something special in my career that I will remember my whole life." February was less memorable for the Hawks, who have dropped 10 of their last 11 but remain four games ahead of Cleveland and Detroit for the eighth spot in the mediocre East.
•ABOUT THE HAWKS (26-31 SU, 27-29-1 ATS): Atlanta's season hit a road block when center Al Horford was lost for the year with a torn pectoral muscle, and the hits have kept coming. All-Star forward Paul Millsap (knee) is expected to miss his fourth straight game and big men Pero Antic (ankle) and Gustavo Ayon (shoulder) remain sidelined. Point guard Jeff Teague (26.7) and forward DeMarre Carroll (20.3) have carried the Hawks at the offensive end lately, combining for an average of 47 points over the past three games.
•ABOUT THE SUNS (34-24 SU, 37-20-1 ATS): Phoenix is eagerly awaiting the return of point guard Eric Bledsoe, who has not played since Dec. 30 but is close to being ready to come back from arthroscopic knee surgery. Gerald Green (14.8 points) has helped fill the scoring void in Bledsoe's absence, but the Suns miss their point guard's defense. With or without Bledsoe, the Suns like to get out and run, leading the NBA with an average of 19 fast-break points.
•PREGAME NOTES: Bledsoe (18 points, 5.8 assists) has been participating in 3-on-3 drills and is expected to resume full practice within the next week before returning to game action.... Atlanta SF Kyle Korver extended his NBA-record streak to 126 consecutive games with at least one 3-pointer, 37 more than Dana Barros' previous mark.... The Hawks have dropped six straight road games and are looking to avoid their first seven-game slide away from home since Jan. 27-Feb. 20, 2008.... The Suns are 21-7 against the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts this season.... The Hawks are 8-0 Over versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 588 times, while PHOENIX covered the spread 412 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX won the game straight up 616 times, while ATLANTA won 362 times. In 1000 simulated games, 648 games went under the total, while 329 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 563 times, while PHOENIX covered the first half line 409 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 601 games went under first half total, while 361 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHOENIX is 22-10 against the spread versus ATLANTA since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 24-9 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 18-13 versus the first half line when playing against ATLANTA since 1996.
--16 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Hawks are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Hawks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.
--Suns are 7-1 ATS L8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1 in Suns last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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