NCAAB
Sunday, March 19
Since 2010, Louisville is 4-0 SU/ATS in 2nd round games, winning by 3-26-15-13 points. Cards split their last six games overall; they won 1st round game by 15, even though Jax State made 10-19 on arc. Michigan made 16-29 on arc in 92-91 win over Oklahoma St Friday; they used four starters 38:00+. Wolverines are 11-3 outside Big 14; they lost by 3 at home to Va Tech in only game vs an ACC opponent this season. Louisville beat Michigan 82-76 in national title game four years ago. Last eight years, 2-seeds are 14-12 vs spread when favored in 2nd round.
USC is on roll this week, beating Providence/SMU by total of 5 points; they’ve won 13 games this year in which they trailed by 10+ points at some point in game. Play-in winners who then won their first round game are 3-3 SU in 2nd round games, but two of those wins came vs double-digit seeds after bracket-buster upsets- play-in winners are 2-1 vs spread as a dog in this round. Baylor is 6-6 in its last 12 games after starting season 20-1; Bears are 12-0 outside Big X; they beat Oregon of Pac-12 by 17 in November. Trojans won five of last six games overall.
North Carolina is 13-2 outside ACC this year, losing to Indiana/Kentucky; Tar Heels had easy time Friday- since ’07, UNC is 6-3 vs spread in 2nd round games, losing back/back to Kansas/Iowa St in ’13/’14- they beat Arkansas 87-78 in 2nd round two years ago, forcing 21 turnovers while going 29-37 on foul line. Arkansas won nine of last 11 games; they were only 3-7 on arc vs Seton Hall- they forced turnovers on 20%+ of possessions in last three games. Last seven years, #1 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in second round games, with five SU losses.
Over last six years, 3-seeds are just 6-5 SU vs 11-seeds in 2nd round games. During same time, 3-seeds are 8-8 vs spread as 2nd-round favorites, whether playing 6 or 11-seed. Oregon got almost no resistance from Iona Friday; Ducks beat Arizona St by 1-23 points this year- ASU is coached by Bobby Hurley, brother of URI coach Dan Hurley. Oregon is without its best shot blocker Boucher. Rhode Island won its last nine games; they were 28-31 on foul line Friday; they start two juniors, two seniors. Rams are just 9-4 outside the Atlantic 14 this season.
Three years ago, Wichita State got to NCAA’s unbeaten, but lost by hoop to Kentucky in second round of tournament; players are different, coaches the same here. Shockers won last 16 games; they’re 2-4 vs top 50 teams this year, with both wins over Illinois St. Kentucky won its last dozen games; they start three freshmen, Shockers start three juniors, no seniors. Both teams lost to Louisville this year; Wichita beat LSU of SEC by 30. Since ’09, 2-seeds are 15-12 vs spread in second round games. ’09 was last time all four 2-seeds made it to the Sweet 16.
Duke won its last six 2nd round games, covering four of last five; they made 13-28 on arc against Troy. South Carolina is #8 in country defending arc (30.1%), #4 at forcing turnovers (24.6%). Gamecocks beat Syracuse by 14 on neutral court, lost to Clemson by 2 in its two ACC games. Blue Devils beat Florida by 10 in only SEC game this year- they don’t go on road much out of conference, but this game is in Greenville, SC and Gamecocks should have crowd edge. South Carolina has two senior guards leading an inexperienced group- this is big stage for them.
Cincinnati plays pace #327, UCLA pace #13; Bearcats are better on offense than they’ve been in recent years (#102 eFG% this year, #199 LY)- they have athletes to match up with Bruins, who have #1 eFG% in country. Since ’08, favorites are 10-4 vs spread in 3-6 seed 2nd round games; this is only second one of those in last three years. Cincy won eight of last nine games; their opponents average 0:18.2/possession, #324; if UCLA has the ball 0:18/possession in this game, they won’t win. Bruins’ average possession on offense is 0:14.4 (#6).
Arizona won nine of last ten games; they lost to Gonzaga by 7 in December on neutral floor, a team St Mary’s lost to three times this year. Sean Miller won/covered all four 2nd round games with Wildcats, with wins by 1-23-23-15 points. St Mary’s beat Stanford by 15 in their only Pac-12 game; this is game where both teams play slow pace- Gaels #350 (2nd-lowest in country), Arizona #273). Gaels got to foul line 39 times in win over VCU Friday. Arizona is #5 team in height, St Mary’s #75. Pac-12 teams are 6-4 vs spread this season when playing a WCC team.
Sunday, March 19
Since 2010, Louisville is 4-0 SU/ATS in 2nd round games, winning by 3-26-15-13 points. Cards split their last six games overall; they won 1st round game by 15, even though Jax State made 10-19 on arc. Michigan made 16-29 on arc in 92-91 win over Oklahoma St Friday; they used four starters 38:00+. Wolverines are 11-3 outside Big 14; they lost by 3 at home to Va Tech in only game vs an ACC opponent this season. Louisville beat Michigan 82-76 in national title game four years ago. Last eight years, 2-seeds are 14-12 vs spread when favored in 2nd round.
USC is on roll this week, beating Providence/SMU by total of 5 points; they’ve won 13 games this year in which they trailed by 10+ points at some point in game. Play-in winners who then won their first round game are 3-3 SU in 2nd round games, but two of those wins came vs double-digit seeds after bracket-buster upsets- play-in winners are 2-1 vs spread as a dog in this round. Baylor is 6-6 in its last 12 games after starting season 20-1; Bears are 12-0 outside Big X; they beat Oregon of Pac-12 by 17 in November. Trojans won five of last six games overall.
North Carolina is 13-2 outside ACC this year, losing to Indiana/Kentucky; Tar Heels had easy time Friday- since ’07, UNC is 6-3 vs spread in 2nd round games, losing back/back to Kansas/Iowa St in ’13/’14- they beat Arkansas 87-78 in 2nd round two years ago, forcing 21 turnovers while going 29-37 on foul line. Arkansas won nine of last 11 games; they were only 3-7 on arc vs Seton Hall- they forced turnovers on 20%+ of possessions in last three games. Last seven years, #1 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in second round games, with five SU losses.
Over last six years, 3-seeds are just 6-5 SU vs 11-seeds in 2nd round games. During same time, 3-seeds are 8-8 vs spread as 2nd-round favorites, whether playing 6 or 11-seed. Oregon got almost no resistance from Iona Friday; Ducks beat Arizona St by 1-23 points this year- ASU is coached by Bobby Hurley, brother of URI coach Dan Hurley. Oregon is without its best shot blocker Boucher. Rhode Island won its last nine games; they were 28-31 on foul line Friday; they start two juniors, two seniors. Rams are just 9-4 outside the Atlantic 14 this season.
Three years ago, Wichita State got to NCAA’s unbeaten, but lost by hoop to Kentucky in second round of tournament; players are different, coaches the same here. Shockers won last 16 games; they’re 2-4 vs top 50 teams this year, with both wins over Illinois St. Kentucky won its last dozen games; they start three freshmen, Shockers start three juniors, no seniors. Both teams lost to Louisville this year; Wichita beat LSU of SEC by 30. Since ’09, 2-seeds are 15-12 vs spread in second round games. ’09 was last time all four 2-seeds made it to the Sweet 16.
Duke won its last six 2nd round games, covering four of last five; they made 13-28 on arc against Troy. South Carolina is #8 in country defending arc (30.1%), #4 at forcing turnovers (24.6%). Gamecocks beat Syracuse by 14 on neutral court, lost to Clemson by 2 in its two ACC games. Blue Devils beat Florida by 10 in only SEC game this year- they don’t go on road much out of conference, but this game is in Greenville, SC and Gamecocks should have crowd edge. South Carolina has two senior guards leading an inexperienced group- this is big stage for them.
Cincinnati plays pace #327, UCLA pace #13; Bearcats are better on offense than they’ve been in recent years (#102 eFG% this year, #199 LY)- they have athletes to match up with Bruins, who have #1 eFG% in country. Since ’08, favorites are 10-4 vs spread in 3-6 seed 2nd round games; this is only second one of those in last three years. Cincy won eight of last nine games; their opponents average 0:18.2/possession, #324; if UCLA has the ball 0:18/possession in this game, they won’t win. Bruins’ average possession on offense is 0:14.4 (#6).
Arizona won nine of last ten games; they lost to Gonzaga by 7 in December on neutral floor, a team St Mary’s lost to three times this year. Sean Miller won/covered all four 2nd round games with Wildcats, with wins by 1-23-23-15 points. St Mary’s beat Stanford by 15 in their only Pac-12 game; this is game where both teams play slow pace- Gaels #350 (2nd-lowest in country), Arizona #273). Gaels got to foul line 39 times in win over VCU Friday. Arizona is #5 team in height, St Mary’s #75. Pac-12 teams are 6-4 vs spread this season when playing a WCC team.
