Bracketology Update
By Bruce Marshall
We're getting into nitty-gritty time, with march just around the corner and Selection Sunday looming in two weeks. "Bubble" talk now dominates the college basketball discussion. Now, it's time to take "Bracketology" forecasts a bit more seriously, as most of the regular season is complete, and most of the potential at-large entries are no longer a mystery. Though the composition of those could still be altered somewhat by upset results in upcoming conference tourney action.
For our new update, we include not only each team's straight-up record, but also its "RPI" (Ratings Percentage index) and "SOS" (Strength of Schedule) numbers, calculations that begin to become more illuminating as we get deeper into conference action. All SU records, RPI and SOS are thru February 25.
Note that for all of our "Bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and usual favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round.
As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 19, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 17 and 18.
EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)
At Charlotte...
1 Virginia (SUR 26-1, RPI-3, SOS-16) vs. 16 FGCU (21-8. 111-238)...A recent close call for Virginia against Wake Forest was reversed in a midweek blowout of the Demon Deacons, and the Cavs have yet to stumble without injured G Justin Anderson, likely out until the ACC Tourney due to a broken finger. UVa was also without another key guard, London Perrantes (face injury), in the Wednesday win at Winston-Salem. A loss before the end of the regular season, and failure to win the ACC Tourney, could still knock the Cavs off of the top line, but we wouldn't count on it. FGSU looks the team to beat in the upcoming Atlantic Sun Tourney, with a few remnants of Andy Enfield "Dunk City" Sweet 16 qualifier from two years ago still on the roster.
8 Oklahoma State (17-10, 28-6) vs. 9 Tulsa (20-7, 36-104)...Three weeks ago we had slotted Seton Hall and Texas into these positions in the East; now we have neither in our projected field of 68. Ok State is in better shape at the moment than the Longhorns in the Big 12 because of a better place in the current standings (sixth compared to eighth) and better RPI and SOS numbers, but the Cowboys are nonetheless advised to halt their current 3-game losing skid ASAP. We move Frank Haith's Tulsa to the safe side of the cut line after recent romps past Temple and Tulane, and staying abreast of Larry Brown's SMU at the top of the American table.
At Columbus...
4 Wichita State (26-3, 13-103) vs. 13 Harvard (19-5, 50-184)...We have Wichita and Northern Iowa basically interchangeable in protected seed slots, and suspect whichever teams wins the Missouri Valley Tourney (and it would be a stunner if it were not the Shockers or Panthers) probably gets a three seed, and the other team a four. The teams likely meet twice in the next ten days, so stay tuned. Harvard at the moment has the pole position in the Ivy League and an important win over closest pursuer Yale. A showdown with the Eli takes place in Cambridge next week, and if the situation remains unchanged until then, Yale is going to have to win that game and then beat Harvard again in an Ivy playoff to steal the Big Dance bid from Tommy Amaker, looking for his fourth straight NCAA trip.
5 Michigan State (19-8, 27-41) vs. 12 Boise State (21-7, 41-108)/NC State (17-11, 40-3)...If Michigan State making a late-season rally sounds familiar, it should, and Tom Izzo appears to be concocting another late-season run by the Spartans, who took a 4-game win streak into Thursday's game vs. Minnesota. The recent switch of G Travis Trice to a sixth-man role has provided a spark off the bench and has coincided with the recent surge. Obviously, the projections for the at-large play-in game at Dayton will vary wildly until Selection Sunday. A couple of stretch runners presently get our nod for one of those matchups, as hot Boise State had won 11 of its last 12 heading into Saturday's Mountain West showdown at San Diego State, while NC State's recent road wins at Louisville and North Carolina, plus an earlier upset over Duke and close call at Virginia, have the Wolfpack firmly on Selection Committee radar.
At Omaha...
2 Kansas (22-6, 2-1) vs. 15 High Point (21-7, 92-232)...Recent losses at West Virginia and Kansas State have probably removed any chance KU could slip onto the top line, and more than likely threaten to drop the Jayhawks to a 3 seed. But as long as KU hangs on to win the Big 12 regular-season title, and maintains its lofty RPI (2) and SOS (1) numbers, it should stay on the second line. Scott Cherry's High Point, featuring highlight-reel F John Brown, will likely be the top seed at next week's Big South Tourney near Myrtle Beach, but note that Cliff Ellis' dangerous tourney host Coastal Carolina has already beaten the Panthers twice this season. Speaking of Cherry, expect him to be targeted by a number of suitors (perhaps former employer George Mason, where Paul Hewitt is on the hot seat and where Cherry worked under Jim Larranaga during the Final Four season) at the conclusion of the campaign.
7 Georgetown (18-8, 23-5) vs. 10 Iowa (18-10, 53-29)...Having recovered from a brief recent dip (three losses in four) with wins in three straight headed into the weekend, the Hoyas look safely in the field and could move up a line or two by Selection Sunday with a deep run in the Big East Tourney. Iowa is not safe yet, but Wednesday's win over Illinois sets up the Hawkeyes as the likely seventh invitee from the Big Ten, which figures to get plenty of respect from the Selection Committee. Iowa should be safe as long as it doesn't lose more than one vs. Penn State, Indiana, and recently-pesky Northwestern before the Big Ten Tourney, and avoids an early exit in Chicago.
At Jacksonville...
3 Arkansas (23-5, 18-72) vs. 14 Iona (23-6, 50-184)...There will be plenty of clamoring for Arkansas to move up to the two line if it can beat top-ranked Kentucky (for a fourth straight time!) on Saturday. Right now, the Razorbacks are too far behind Kansas in the computer numbers to leapfrog the Jayhawks or the other projected two seeds, but that all changes with an upset over Coach Cal's Cats. Tim Cluess' Iona is no stranger to the Big Dance and has drawn clear in the Metro-Atlantic, and will be a solid favorite over top contenders Rider, Monmouth, and Quinnipiac when that tourney begins late next week in Albany.
6 VCU (21-7, 15-11) vs. 11 Stanford (17-9, 56-69)...VCU is not yet home-and-hosed in the A-10 regular-season race, especially after recent double-OT losses to La Salle and Richmond have caused a four-way logjam at the top of the league table. But solid computer numbers suggest Shaka Smart's team is the only league rep with little to worry about on Selection Sunday. Stanford is definitely in some bubble trouble after a recent dip in form, but last weekend's win over Cal temporarily stopped the bleeding. One potential problem for the Cardinal is that its best non-league win (at Texas) is not looking nearly as good as it did in December due to the Longhorns' recent fade in the Big 12. Still some work to do in Palo Alto.
SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)
At Charlotte...
1 Duke (19-3, 5-13) vs. 16 St. Francis NY (20-9, 165-325)/Albany (20-8, 123-296)...Duke risked slipping off of the top line if Virginia Tech could have pulled the massive upset at midweek, but the Blue Devils avoided that banana peel (barely) and live to fight another day as a projected top seed. Right now, it's wins over Virginia and Wisconsin that have Coach K's bunch projected ahead of Villanova, Arizona, and the Badgers for a spot on the top line. The America East race has been turned inside-out the past few weeks by the Great Danes from Albany, looking for a return trip to the Dance and having zoomed ahead of all else in the A-E with a 14-1 league mark and top seed (and home edge) in the upcoming conference tourney. Vermont and the home team of Strat-o-Matic on long Island, Stony Brook, look to be the top contenders. The Terriers of Brooklyn-based St. Francis (NY) have the pole position in the Northeast, also not insignificant since the conference winner has homecourt edge in a conference tourney played at campus sites. Looming close behind in the NE standings are Smithfield, RI-based Bryant, the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, Maurice Stokes' alma mater St. Francis (PA), Mount Saint Mary's, and Bob Beckel's Staten Island-based alma mater, Wagner.
8 Ohio State (19-8, 46-81) vs. 9 Dayton (21-6, 34-126)...For much of the season we have projected Ohio State a bit higher, and even came close to putting the Buckeyes in protected seed territory last month. But too many flat efforts (most of those on the road, like last Sunday's loss at Michigan) have dropped the Buckeyes into the 7-8 seed range. We are not sure how deep the Committee looks into the A-10, but beyond VCU we believe Dayton looks the best bet for an at-large. Remember, Archie Miller's Flyers advanced to the Elite Eight last spring with a similar-looking team.
At Portland...
4 Utah (21-5, 10-42) vs. 13 Georgia State (19-8, 81-187)...Expect Utah's Larry Krystkowiak to garner more than a few votes in national Coach of the Year balloting. The Utes have emerged as the second team in the Pac-12 behind Arizona (which visits Salt Lake City this weekend), though recent road losses at UCLA and Oregon have some observers wondering if Utah is a candidate for an early upset at the sub-regionals. The Sun Belt Tourney begins in two weeks at the U of New Orleans Lakefront Arena, and recent performances suggest Ron Hunter's Georgia State, playing some very nasty defense in recent weeks, can make amends after losing as the favorite to upstart ULL in the finals last March. Georgia Southern is currently abreast of the Panthers in the league race.
5 SMU (22-5, 20-59) vs. 12 Wofford (23-6, 51-159)...After being perhaps the last team to be left out of the 68-team field last March, Larry Brown's AAC-leading Mustangs are not going to have to sweat out Selection Sunday this season. A five seed might be bit aggressive, but the Mustangs can stick here if they win the conference tourney in Hartford (where local favorite UConn will be lurking). Meanwhile, Wofford has taken command in the SoCon as it looks for back-to-back Big Dance trips under vet HC Mike Young and star G Karl Cochran.
At Columbus...
2 Wisconsin (25-3, 6-19) vs. 15 NC Central (21-6, 106-336)...Wisconsin is sitting as the best-rated Big Ten side at the moment, but saw its hopes fora spot on the top line take a hit with the midweek loss at Maryland. Which probably didn't bother Bo Ryan's team as much as the emergency landing the team's plane had to make in Pittsburgh on its way back from BWI. The Badgers still have a shot at a top regional seed if they can win next month's Big Ten Tourney and events elsewhere break favorably, but for now we think a two seed is just about right. Looking for back-to-back Big Dance visits are HC LeVelle Moton's NC Central Eagles, who should be safely clear of the 16 vs. 16 play-in game as long as they maintain current form and don't get KO'd in next month's MEAC Tourney at the Norfolk Scope, once upon a time one of the regional homes for the ABA Virginia Squires during Dr. J's earliest days as a pro hoopster.
7 LSU (20-8, 54-91) vs. 10 Colorado State (24-5, 26-116)...Some observers believe the non-Kentucky teams from the SEC are going to fare much better in March than most realize and almost always mention Johnny Jones' LSU (along with Arkansas) as one of those potentially dangerous entries to watch. We are not as sure about the Selection Committee going too deep in the Mountain West, but Colorado State's solid computer numbers suggest the Rams are probably on the safe side of the cut line as long as Larry Eustachy's team avoids upcoming banana peels at payback-minded Nevada (which was humiliated by 56 at Fort Collins) and Utah State, and averts an early exit at the Mountain West Tourney in Las Vegas.
At Pittsburgh...
3 West Virginia (22-6, 22-49) vs. 14 William & Mary (18-10, 86-150)...After slipping down the seeding ladder in our last update, Bob Huggins' WVU has steadied after that recent wobble with big wins over Kansas and on the road at Oklahoma State and now projects as a protected seed out of the loaded Big 12. Which probably means a sub-regional assignment at nearby Pittsburgh, just what WVU fans would desire. Get ready for a national media blitz if William & Mary can win the upcoming Colonial Tourney in Baltimore, because the Tribe has never qualified for the Big Dance (though it came awfully close last March vs. Delaware).
6 Butler (20-8, 25-22) vs. 11 Miami-Fla. (18-10, 67-68)...Butler has been one of the pleasant surprises in the nation this season , and HC Chris Holtmann (who had the interim tag removed in January) should be getting some votes in the Coach of the Year balloting. Including Jim Larranaga's Miami is something of a reach, especially after the Canes blew a chance to put themselves a bit further from the cut line had they been able to hold on last Saturday at Louisville. Bad losses to Eastern Kentucky and Green bay in pre-league play still hurt, but the January 13 win over Duke helps. But Larranaga cannot afford to lose more than one upcoming game vs. North Carolina, Pitt, or VPI, or suffer an early exit in the ACC Tourney, to stay on the bubble.
MIDWEST REGIONAL (Cleveland)
At Louisville...
1 Kentucky (28-0, 1-31) vs. 16 Texas Southern (15-12, 154-275)/Bucknell (17-13, 144-169)...Kentucky fans have been making their sub-regional reservations in Louisville since last summer, and that assignment to the KFC Yum! Center remains the surest thing on Selection Sunday. The Patriot champ has been involved in past play-in games, and this season's conference race has been turned inside-out with preseason favorite Lafayette taking on some water and CBS head honcho Les Moonves' alma mater Bucknell suddenly emerging along with unheralded Colgate as the leaders in the race. Also keep an eye on Army, with perhaps its best team since Coach K's years in the late '70s, and of course the memorable Bob Knight teams of the late '60s and into 1970. The SWAC has also been involved in many of these 16 vs. 16 play-in games, and Texas Southern is the most interesting rep this season after its pre-league wins over Michigan State and Kansas State. Alabama State and Southern U are other top contenders for the upcoming conference tourney at the Houston Rockets' swanky Toyota Center.
8 Providence (19-9, 21-7) vs. 9 Purdue (18-9, 59-70)...Solid computer numbers have Providence poised to get a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday. Road wins at Georgetown and Butler and vs. Notre Dame on a neutral floor at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut have helped the Friars, whose RPI also got a boost from a Nov. 30 loss at Kentucky. Stretch-running Purdue remains the surprise story in this year's Big Ten, not only saving the skin of under-fire HC Matt Painter but also climbing up the projected seedings for the past month due to an ongoing uptick (wins in 7 of last 8 in the rugged Big Ten).
At Omaha....
4 Oklahoma (19-8, 16-12) vs. 13 Central Michigan (21-5, 71-222)...There are a handful of interchangeable parts (OU, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor) in the upper half of the Big 12 table, and developments over the next couple of weeks will help properly slot all. At the moment, we give the Mountaineers and Lon Kruger's Sooners the spots as protected seeds, though OU is projected as low as the six line by other Bracketologists. As usual, the MAC Tourney in Cleveland figures to be a wide-open affair from what at one time was a multi-bid league (but hasn't been so this millennium). A measured vote for Keno Davis' CMU Chips, perhaps the most consistent of all MAC reps this season. Though several others (Bowling Green, Buffalo, Toledo, and last year's tourney champ Western Michigan among them) will all feel as if they have a shot at The Q, too.
5 Louisville (22-6, 19-37) vs. 12 Valparaiso (22-5, 69-262)...Something is presently not right with Louisville, which has eked out recent wins over Miami and Georgia Tech after recent losses to N.C. State and Syracuse and has dismissed troubled G Chris Jones. Combined, it's enough to move the Cards out of protected seed territory. A recent road loss at Detroit might be a warning sign, or a wake-up call, for Valpo, which is still in position to win the Horizon regular-season crown and play at home as long as it stays alive in the conference tourney. But Green Bay, Cleveland State, and perhaps Oakland and even Detroit will believe they have a chance in that upcoming event.
At Seattle...
2 Arizona (24-3, 7-39) vs. 15 South Dakota State (21-8, 103-251)...Arizona was fancying itself as a top regional seed in the West for the first month of the season, but road losses at UNLV and Oregon State are not befitting a top seed. Even with a close December home win over Gonzaga, we think the Zags are more likely to grab the West's top seed, likely moving the Wildcats out of the region. The Summit race remains a jumble, though Scott Nagy's SD State Jackrabbits look to have pole position for top seed in the upcoming conference tourney at hoops-mad Sioux Falls, with the defending champ North Dakota State Bisons, the IPFW Mastodons, the Oral Roberts Eagles, and maybe the South Dakota Coyotes all thinking they have a shot in Sioux Falls, too.
7 Oregon (21-8, 39-58) vs. 10 Georgia (18-9, 30-35)...We didn't even have Dana Altman's Oregon in our projected field until recent weeks. The Ducks were forgotten about after their 2-3 start in Pac-12 play, but have roared back and achieved the marquee win they needed last Sunday vs. Utah. Now, wins at Stanford and Oregon State to close the regular season and a good showing in the Pac-12 Tourney should have the Webfoots wearing their white unis (or perhaps yellow, or a lighter shade of green) as the designated home team in their first sub-regional game. Georgia had placed itself into a box with inexplicable losses to Auburn and South Carolina, but recent road wins at Alabama and Ole Miss have put the Bulldogs back on the safe side of the cut line. Avoiding a collapse in remaining regular-season games and a quick exit in the SEC Tourney at Nashville, and Mark Fox's team won't have to sweat Selection Sunday.
At Louisville...
3 Northern Iowa (27-2, 14-133) vs. 14 Stephen F, Austin (23-4, 66-259)...As mentioned in earlier discussion regarding fellow Missouri Valley contender Wichita State, we view "Virginia Lite" Northern Iowa as interchangeable at the moment with the Shockers, with the winner of the conference tourney likely on the three line and the loser probably getting a four seed on Selection Sunday. At the moment, we opt for UNI on the three line due to its earlier win over Wichita the (the teams meet again this weekend at Koch Arena). Nobody is going to be thrilled to draw Brad Underwood's giant-killers from Stephen F. Austin after the Lumberjacks dumped VCU in a sub-regional at San Diego last March. First, however, SFA must get past dangerous Sam Houston State and a few others in the upcoming Southland Tourney in the Houston suburb of Katy.
6 Baylor (21-7, 11-4) vs. 11 Cincinnati (19-9, 52-57)...As mentioned in our previous discussion involving Oklahoma, the Bears are one of several Big 12 teams we envision being slotted at three-thru-six seeds across the regional map. At the moment, we have the Bears at a six, though their computer numbers suggest something better. Cincinnati has not had an easy season, with HC Mick Cronin forced into a medical-related leave of absence. The Bearcats have also been operating without a double-digit scorer for much of the campaign and recently lost three games in a row. But a pair of wins over SMU, a December triumph over Mountain West leader San Diego State, and a top 25 non-conference schedule are helping to keep Cincy in the field of 68.
WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)
at Seattle...
1 Gonzaga (28-1, 8-74) vs. 16 New Mexico State (19-10, 113-177)...There still might be a scenario in which Gonzaga could drop from the top line without losing another game until Selection Sunday, but recent losses by Kansas and Wisconsin, and a couple of bad losses on Arizona's record, suggest that only Villanova appears capable of leapfrogging the Zags (as long as they keep winning thru the ACC Tourney). New Mexico State looks to be the only WAC rep that could miss one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games. The Aggies, who recently got skywalking G Daniel Mullings back to active duty, will be a heavy favorite for that conference tourney at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, and what would be a fourth straight Big Dance trip for HC Marvin Menzies.
8 North Carolina (19-9, 17-2) vs. 9 Indiana (19-10, 25-33)...There has to be some punishment for North Carolina continuing to lose games. So, despite the Tar Heels' lofty RPI (17) and SOS (2) numbers, we've slotted them in one of the 8 vs. 9 games, with a chance to play their way back up the ladder with a fast regular-season finish and good showing in the ACC Tourney. It only seems fair, right? Tom Crean's Indiana has been floating in the 7-9 range all season, but too many shallow efforts like Wednesday's loss at Northwestern have prevented the Hoosiers from ascending any higher on the seeding ladder.
At Portland...
4 Notre Dame (24-5, 29-106) vs. 13 Murray State (24-4, 74-269)...Notre Dame has been hovering in protected seed territory since January, but we have moved the Irish down a line to a four since our last update, with Tuesday's home loss vs. Syracuse costing Mike Brey's team. Steve Prohm's dangerous Murray State (which won the CIT last spring) has stayed unbeaten in Ohio Valley play and caused trouble in the Dance before. The Racers have emerged as the clear favorite for the upcoming OVC Tourney at the old Nashville Civic Auditorium (the SEC gets the higher-rent digs at the NHL Predators' Bridgestone Arena), where Rick Byrd's local entry Belmont, Heath Schroyer's UT-Martin, and Jeff Neubauer's defending conference tourney champ Eastern Kentucky have the best shot at an upset.
5 Iowa State (20-7, 12-8) vs. 12 St. John's (19-9, 37-28)/Texas A&M (19-8, 31-62)...Regarding Iowa State, ditto earlier discussions involving West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Baylor; for the moment we simply decide to slot the Cyclones on the five line, and wait to see what happens at the upcoming Big 12 Tourney in Kansas City. The second at-large play-in game at Dayton represents the absolute edge of the cut line, and much could change in the next two weeks. For the moment, we give Steve Lavin's St. John's (which enters the weekend having won 5 of its last 6) one more chance despite its inconsistencies, and also reward Texas A&M, whose two wins over LSU and absence of bad losses allow it to squeeze into the field (for the moment, at least) as the SEC's sixth rep.
At Pittsburgh...
2 Villanova (6-2, 4-27) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (20-7, 75-190)...As mentioned earlier, we now believe Nova has the best chance among all our two seeds to move up to the top line, though the Cats are going to have to keep winning to have a chance to leapfrog Gonzaga. Minor consideration, however, as Jay Wright's team likely heads to Pittsburgh regardless for the sub-regionals. Jim Hayford's Eastern Washington has made the most noise in the Big Sky this season due to its pre-league win at Indiana, and the Eagles appear poised to catch a break in the conference tourney by hosting the event even if finishing behind Sac State, whose tiny Hornet's Nest Gym has been deemed too small to host the postseason tourney, usually played at the home of the regular-season Sky winner.
7 Ole Miss (19-9, 43-45) vs. 10 Temple (19-9, 33-51)...Some SEC observers still believe that Ole Miss, and not Arkansas, might be the SEC's second-best team. A midweek home loss to capable Georgia is hardly a bad defeat after wins in eight of its previous nine games, though we don't see the Rebs ascending much higher than the six line on Selection Sunday. Temple has fallen back into some bubble trouble with recent losses at SMU and Tulsa, but a few of the Owls' other defeats came while HC Fran Dunphy was waiting for transfers to become eligible in the first month of the season, and the romp past Kansas should be worth something on Selection Sunday.
At Jacksonville....
3 Maryland (23-5, 9-21) vs. 14 UC Davis (21-4, 72-304)...We weren't sure about putting recently-wobbling Maryland in protected seed category as recently as a week ago, but Tuesday's rousing win over Wisconsin and earlier sweep of Michigan State should have the Terps poised to enter the Dance as no worse than the second-rated Big Ten team. And with developments elsewhere the past week (such as Notre Dame's home loss to Syracuse), Maryland gets bumped up to a 3. Kimberly Guilfoyle's alma mater UC Davis has never made the Big Dance, though it has won lower-division titles under current UCSB HC Bob Williams. Jim Les' Aggies have emerged as the favorite in the upcoming Big West Tourney at Anaheim thanks to an upperclassmen-dominated lineup and high-scoring G Corey Hawkins (Hersey's son; 20.8 ppg), back from recent injury.
6 San Diego State (22-6, 24-83) vs. 11 La Tech (21-7, 65-101)...Good news in the past week for Steve Fisher's SDSU, which has welcomed back versatile 6-7 swingman Dwayne Polee II to active duty after a heart scare. Though the Aztecs still lack the offensive bite of some of their recent versions, solid defense, makes SDSU a "tough out" in March as usual. Conference USA is a logjam at the top, but we don't think there will be more than the winner of the conference tourney (this year held in Birmingham) to make the field of 68. At the moment, a slight nod to Michael White's La Tech, a narrow loser in last year's conference tourney in El Paso. Keep an eye on ascending UAB, which gets home edge in the tourney next month, while Tim Floyd's UTEP could also be a team to watch in Birmingham.
Last four in: Boise State, NC State, St. John's, Texas A&M.
Last four out: Texas, Xavier, Pitt, UCLA.
Next four out: Illinois, Davidson, Rhode Island, BYU.
