4* #856 SYRACUSE over LOUISVILLE
It is not surprising to see money show up for Louisville this
morning, driving this game down into our ?play? range ? Rick Pitino
and the Cardinals continue to carry that reputation for stepping up
in February as the tournament approaches. We know that, because we
read it so often, and hear about it from the television pundits. The
reality is much different this time, however. At 15-9 they are not
even on the NCAA bubble, since they lack a single victory over a team
that will likely make the Big Dance, and at 3-5 SU over their last
eight games they are hardly stepping up at crunch time. This is also
not the time or place for that to turn around.
Because of that major storm on the east coast earlier this week the
Cardinals left campus ahead of schedule on Tuesday, and they showed
absolutely nothing in losing 74-55 vs. St. John?s in Madison Square
Garden Thursday night. Now after five straight nights of sleeping in
hotel rooms and practicing on courts they are not accustomed to there
is no particular reason to believe that anything special is going to
happen here, especially if Reginald Delk is not going to be able to
go (he could not practice yesterday because of back spasms).
Consider just how wide the base gaps in execution are here ? Syracuse
is shooting 49.7 percent in Big East play vs. 45.1, and allowing just
39.8 vs. 43.9. Those comparisons put the line in double figures. The
Orange simply do not bring anything to exploit, a combination of
size, athleticism and depth that would create enough matchup problems
on their own, without that 2-3 zone causing even more headaches. Jim
Beoheim?s squad plays unselfishly, with four players average at least
2.0 assists in conference play, and it leads to outstanding offensive
balance, with four scoring in double figures and three more at 7.8 or
better. How nice is it to have a reserve, Kris Joseph, that has
scored in double figures in six straight games?
While the Cardinals are slumping and out of sorts, Syracuse comes in
primed to throw a knockout punch. The Orange remember well those two
bitter losses in this series LY, that 67-57 defeat on this floor when
they were out-scored 13-2 down the stretch, and that loss in the Big
East championship game when they were simply exhausted off of a total
of seven overtimes vs. Connecticut and West Virginia in the previous
two nights. Now the setting is entirely different, and a team that
may be the best in the nation right now grabs this one in style.
4* #874 NORTHWESTERN over MINNESOTA
The wheels are coming off at Minnesota right now, with the Golden
Gophers in a 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS slide, but it may be something that
goes even beyond those Big 10 results ? there is a real crisis of
confidence at hand. Consider this from Tubby Smith, a classy coach
who became extremely blunt this week - <i>?When you don?t have the
overwhelming talent, you better be doing everything right. You better
be doing the extraordinary things, and we?re not doing them ? We
really haven?t stepped up in the big games in [the last] two years.
That?s a real concern. That?s why you go out and recruit better
players, and hopefully we?ll get that in the future.?</i> That is a
cold and harsh assessment of the state of affairs, but also an
accurate one.
Since losing Al Nolen, Minnesota is playing without a natural point
guard, and the Lawrence Westbrook/Devoe Jopseh tandem has only 59
assists to go with 51 turnovers in Big 10 play. It is not just an
offensive problem but one on the other end as well, where the Gophers
have allowed an alarming 40.9 percent from 3-point range in
conference games, by far the Big 10?s worst. And both of those issues
come front and center today.
Minnesota gutted out a 65-61 home win over Northwestern earlier, a
game that the Wildcats led with 5:00 to play, and on the road those
matchups become even more difficult. Exploiting the Gopher defense is
an attack that is third in the nation in assist to turnover ratio for
the season (1.53), and has been even better on conference play (a
sparkling 1.62), and one that leads the Big 10 and is 6th nationally
at 9.3 made 3-pointers per game. Bill Carmody?s team will get plenty
of good looks, and those trapping half-court zone defenses will also
create havoc for the Minnesota guards ? in their only road games
without Nolen they had to escape 66-64 at the buzzer at Penn State,
and were blown out 85-63 at Ohio State.
The last four Northwestern home games have been wins over Purdue,
Illinois, Michigan and Indiana by a combined 45 points. It brings a
confidence level that should have the Wildcats as the solid favorites
here, and at this favorable range it is easy to get in play.
4* #851 EAST over WEST
Yes, the NBA All Star game is more geared towards showtime theatrics
than any other, and for some major stretches in the middle of the
game the aim will be putting together entertaining offensive fast
breaks, and not on stopping the other side. But that changes when the
game is on the line in the final stanza, and we believe there is a
major gap between these squads when it comes to crunch time ? the
East brings the far better defensive roster. And in this price range
that gets us in play.
A case can be made that when the starting lineups are on the court,
the West does not have the better defender at any position. When the
reserves take the court the gap becomes even wider. In losing Kobe
Bryant and Chris Paul the best perimeter defenders are not available
(particularly Paul?s ability to pressure the ball and generate
steals); and having Steve Nash, Jason Kidd and Deron Williams at the
point they are downright weak defensively at that key spot. And then
there is the matter of having to check LeBron James, who has the
highest scoring average in the history of this game (24.3). At the
start that falls on Dirk Nowitzki, an absolutely awful matchup for
the West, and there is no one to go to at crunch time. It may be even
tougher against Dwayne Wade. Without Bryant and Brandon Roy the West
is saddled without a natural #2 guard, forcing either a #3 that would
be too slow to guard him, or having to play with two PG?s on the
floor at the same time, which would enable Wade to overpower them
(Hint: look for Wade ?MVP? props if you can find good value).
Look for some of the usual entertainment over the course of these 48
minutes, but when it gets to crunch time the East brings the tougher
competitors and the better defense, and with the two best players on
the court, James and Wade, having extremely weak defensive rotations
against them, it is easy for the East to take full control down the
stretch.
