Sunday 12/6/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

The New York Giants have enjoyed bragging rights in the Metropolitan area for quite some time, with two Super Bowl titles in a recent five-year span settling any would-be dispute. With little to crow about after dropping two straight games, the Giants look to regain their swagger on Sunday afternoon when they "host" the rival New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.

"This is the next game and an important one, not just because it's Giants versus Jets and both teams share a stadium in the same city and everything," Eli Manning told reporters. "But it's important because of what it means for our playoff hunt." While the Giants find themselves tied with Washington atop the less-than-impressive NFC East, the Jets are in the thick of the wild-card logjam following a 38-20 victory over AFC East foe Miami last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed two of his season-high four touchdown passes to former Dolphin Brandon Marshall, who leads the team with 71 receptions, 931 yards and nine scores.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Jets -2.5. O/U: 45

ABOUT THE JETS (6-5): Wideout Eric Decker had a touchdown pass last week, marking his eighth in 10 starts this season. Chris Ivory recorded his third score in four weeks with a 31-yard scamper to seal the win last week and faces a Giants' rushing defense that is yielding 100.5 yards per contest (4.1 yards per carry). On the other side of the ball, the top-ranked Jets' rush defense set a franchise record by limiting the Dolphins to just 12 yards on the ground last week and faces a Giants' rushing attack that is 28th in the league.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-6): Manning isn't shy about leaning on Odell Beckham Jr., who was targeted a staggering 18 times in New York's 20-14 setback to the Redskins last week. Beckham had nine catches for a 142 yards and a touchdown to continue his torrid stretch and the second-year star is expected to miss Darrelle Revis, as the cornerback is likely to skip his second straight game due to a concussion. "Just got to move on," Beckham said of missing out on the matchup. "We've still got to play the Jets. It would have been fun to go against a guy like that, and it's unfortunate that he's not playing, but maybe we'll get that matchup down the road. We're still focused on playing the Jets. This is a game we need to win."

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Giants are tied with Atlanta for the fewest sacks (12) on the season.

2. Jets CB Marcus Williams, who replaced Revis in the lineup week, is nursing a sprained knee and has yet to practice this week.

3. Giants S Nat Berhe revealed on Twitter that he lost a cousin in Wednesday's mass shooting in San Bernardino, Calif.

PREDICTION: Jets 24, Giants 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arizona at St. Louis

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri

Impressive victories over Arizona and Seattle were part of a 4-3 start for the St. Louis Rams, who then fell off with a four-game losing streak. The Cardinals will try to gain some revenge for that Week 4 loss and solidify their position in the NFC postseason picture when they visit the Rams on Sunday.

St. Louis made the switch to Case Keenum at quarterback in an effort to boost the offense, but he went down with a concussion in his first start at Baltimore on Nov. 22 and still is in the concussion protocol. "He's feeling better, feeling good, but he's not completely cleared,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher told reporters. “We're just evaluating him. All the tests with the neurologists, things are OK, but it's just about him feeling 100 percent.” The Cardinals have no issues at quarterback with Carson Palmer, who enters the week third in the NFL in passing yards (3,337) and second in touchdowns (27). Palmer could be under even more pressure with running backs Chris Johnson (leg) and Andre Ellington (toe) sidelined.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -6. O/U: 43

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (9-2): Arizona owns a three-game lead in the NFC West and a one-game edge over Minnesota (8-3) for the No. 2 spot in the NFC behind undefeated Carolina. Rookie running back David Johnson is expected to take over for Chris Johnson and Ellington as the team’s top option in the backfield, and the team doesn’t expect much drop off. “I think running back is one of the easier ones (to replace),” coach Bruce Arians told reporters. “Now it’s different to replace Adrian Peterson, or a couple of guys like that. Chris was having a heck of a year, but David, given those same number of touches, I don’t think would be far behind that.”

ABOUT THE RAMS (4-7): St. Louis will turn back to Nick Foles at quarterback and hope Keenum is well enough to serve as the backup on Sunday. Foles lost the job while managing two TD passes and five interceptions in five games and picked up right where he left off with no TDs and three INTs while replacing Keenum in a 31-7 loss at Cincinnati last week. Foles’ best performance of the season came in Week 4 at Arizona, when he went 16-of-24 for 171 yards, three TDs and no picks in a 24-22 victory.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Cardinals WRs Larry Fitzgerald (ankle) and John Brown (hamstring) are questionable while Michael Floyd (hamstring) is probable.

2. St. Louis RB Todd Gurley ran for 106 of his 146 yards in the fourth quarter of the Week 4 meeting.

3. Palmer needs three TD passes to tie Kurt Warner’s franchise record of 30.

PREDICTION: Cardinals 40, Rams 13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Atlanta at Tampa Bay

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida


While the Atlanta Falcons slowly have been slipping in the NFC playoff picture, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been clawing their way back into it. They’ll both try to improve their chances with a key divisional victory when the Buccaneers host the Falcons on Sunday.



The Falcons kept pace with Carolina in the NFC South for a month, winning their first five games and six of their first seven before enduring a four-game skid that prompted a players-only meeting on Monday. “I think that’s a good part of a team, to have good, solid leadership, guys that voice stuff to get it all going in the same direction,” quarterback Matt Ryan told reporters. “To me, that’s the key – for all of us to be on the same page and be moving in the same direction, and we are.” Atlanta’s losing streak began with a 23-20 overtime loss at home against Tampa Bay in Week 8, starting a string of three wins in five games for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay had its two-game winning streak snapped with a 25-12 loss at Indianapolis last week but is just one game behind Atlanta and Seattle for the second wild card.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Buccaneers -1. O/U: 46



ABOUT THE FALCONS (6-5): Atlanta’s offensive production dropped off dramatically after the 5-0 start, and turnovers have been a major reason with 19 in the last seven games. Ryan has thrown five interceptions in his last two contests and finished with a season-low 230 passing yards to go with two picks in last week’s 20-10 loss to Minnesota. The Falcons have been decent defensively but were gashed for a season-high 191 rushing yards last week and have allowed over 100 on the ground in three of their last four games.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (5-6): Tampa Bay has taken much better care of the ball of late, as rookie quarterback Jameis Winston has shown dramatic improvement. Winston has thrown three interceptions in his last seven games after being picked off seven times in his first four contests, and Doug Martin (1,038 yards, three touchdowns) has helped take the pressure off him. The Bucs’ defense has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of brilliance against the run, holding four opponents to 55 yards or fewer on the ground.



EXTRA POINTS

1. Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) is expected to play after missing last week’s game.

2. The Bucs had recorded at least one turnover in every game before being held without a takeaway last week at Indianapolis.

3. Atlanta WR Julio Jones, who leads the NFL in catches (94) and receiving yards (1,245) has 29 receptions for 442 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games against Tampa Bay.



PREDICTION: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Seattle at Minnesota

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

The Minnesota Vikings have taken advantage of the Green Bay Packers’ struggles to jump on top of the NFC North while the Seattle Seahawks are sneaking into the wild-card race. Both teams will be trying to hold on to those precarious positions when the Seahawks visit the Vikings on Sunday.

The Vikings are one-half game ahead of the Packers in the North but lost the first head-to-head meeting and has a brutal closing stretch that includes trips to Arizona and Green Bay on top of visits from the Seahawks, Chicago and New York Giants. “We’re kind of just trying to get one week at a time and worry about that,” Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer told reporters. “I haven’t really reflected on (our record) too much, to be honest with you.” Minnesota did Seattle a favor last week by beating the Falcons (6-5), who dropped behind the Seahawks in the wild-card standings due to a better winning percentage against conference opponents. Seattle is coming off its most impressive offensive performance of the season in a 39-30 win over Pittsburgh last week but lost starting tight end Jimmy Graham to a season-ending knee injury in the process.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: PK. O/U: 42

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (6-5): Graham, who was acquired from New Orleans in an offseason trade and has struggled to adapt to Seattle's passing game, underwent surgery on a torn patellar tendon on Wednesday and will be out until training camp. “Obviously, you lose one of the best playmakers in football, period," quarterback Russell Wilson told reporters. "You think about Jimmy Graham and what he brings to the table. His fire, his passion to the game, his ability to make catches.” Wilson, who was voted Air Player of the Week at NFL.com after throwing for 345 yards and a career-high five TDs against the Steelers, will target Luke Wilson at the tight end spot the rest of the way.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (8-3): Minnesota enters the week second in the NFL in points allowed (17.6) and leading the league in rushing yards (146.4) behind Adrian Peterson, who was named FedEX Ground Player of the Week after going for 158 yards and a pair of scores in last week’s 20-10 win over the Falcons. Peterson also was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November and leads the NFL with 1,164 yards on the ground. “It really is about the team,” Zimmer told reporters in reference to Peterson’s success. “I’ve always preached the team and I know they’re not always getting all the catches that they want to get, but they understand we’re pretty good running the football, and they’re a part of it as well.”

EXTRA POINTS

1. Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin has recorded 339 receiving yards and four TDs in his last three games.

2. Minnesota DT Linval Joseph (foot) missed practice this week and is questionable.

3. Seattle RB Thomas Rawls totaled 290 yards and two TDs in the last two games.

PREDICTION: Seahawks 24, Vikings 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Houston at Buffalo

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

With his team’s playoff hopes on life support, Rex Ryan still believes that the Buffalo Bills are capable of running the table to earn a postseason berth. The Bills, battered and bruised on defense, host the surging Houston Texans on Sunday with “no room for error,” according to Ryan.

Ryan told reporters this week that he still feels the Bills can play with anyone and their best game is ahead of them. Time, however, is running out for Buffalo, which may be further short-handed against the Texans, as defensive end Mario Williams remains questionable with a foot injury and Kyle Williams was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday. Houston has won four straight and remains tied atop the AFC South Division with Indianapolis. Led by All-Pro J.J. Watt, who leads the league with 13.5 sacks, the Texans have allowed just two touchdowns in their last 18 quarters.


TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills -3. O/U: 41.5

ABOUT THE TEXANS (6-5): With a crucial game against the Colts looming, Houston controls its own playoff destiny but also has little room for error. Watt missed multiple practices during the week with a groin injury but said he will play against the Bills, who dropped a 23-17 decision at the Texans last season. Houston’s recent surge has vaulted it to sixth in the NFL in total defense and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who is listed as probable with a sore hamstring, ranks third with 1,081 yards receiving.

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-6): Buffalo is coming off road losses at New England and Kansas City, and Ryan’s defense has plummeted to 19th in the league in yards per game. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor (questionable) continues to nurse a shoulder injury but is expected to start after throwing three touchdown passes for the third time this season in last week’s 30-22 setback at Kansas City. LeSean McCoy has been impressive in the second half of the season, going over 100 all-purpose yards in five straight games, but backup Karlos Williams left last week with a shoulder injury and remains questionable.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Texans RB Alfred Blue, who rushed for 77 yards and a score in last week’s win over the Saints, was limited in practice with a back injury and is questionable.

2. Defensive lineman Alex Carrington, who was filling in for Kyle Williams, sustained a season-ending left quadriceps injury last week.

3. The Bills had a league-high 54 sacks last season but have just 16 this year, tied for 29th in the league.

PREDICTION: Bills 27, Texans 16

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Baltimore at Miami

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

After keeping their flickering postseason hopes alive with a last-second victory, the visiting Baltimore Ravens look to post their third straight win at the expense of the floundering Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Safety Will Hill scampered 64 yards to return a blocked field goal for a touchdown as time expired in Baltimore's 33-27 triumph over AFC North-rival Cleveland on Monday.

"December football is when football matters, and we’re relevant in December," said Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who owns a perfect 5-0 record versus the Dolphins. "That's what we needed to be." Although it shares the same 4-7 mark as Baltimore, Miami hasn't shown much fight lately with losses in two straight and four of its last five. Ryan Tannehill threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns in Miami's 38-20 setback to the AFC East-rival New York Jets last Sunday, with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor being relieved of his duties the following day.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Dolphins -4. O/U: 43.5

ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-7): Veteran Matt Schaub threw two touchdowns versus the Browns in his first start in place of injured quarterback Joe Flacco (knee). Wideout Kamar Aiken has also stepped up in lieu of the season-ending injury to Steve Smith Sr., reeling in 24 receptions and two touchdowns on 38 targets in November. Javorius "Buck" Allen rolled up 55 yards on 12 carries in his first career start on Monday and faces Miami's 32nd-ranked rush defense.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-7): While wideout Jarvis Landry has been Tannehill's most frequent target, rookie DeVante Parker is expected to be under the microscope for the final few games of the season. The 14th overall pick of the 2015 draft, Parker had four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown last week and should see additional playing time with Rishard Matthews nursing cracked ribs. "I think it’s irrelevant whether (Parker) is ready or not; he’s going to have to," Miami interim head coach Dan Campbell told reporters. "I mean, it’s time for him to step up and take on a bigger role."

EXTRA POINTS

1. Miami RB Lamar Miller was once again a forgotten man last week with just two yards on five carries.

2. Baltimore is the first team in NFL history to see its initial 11 games of a season decided by eight points or fewer.

3. Dolphins QB coach Zac Taylor will assume the play-calling duties in place of the departed Lazor.

PREDICTION: Dolphins 21, Ravens 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cincinnati at Cleveland

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

The Cincinnati Bengals have their eyes focused on clinching their fifth consecutive postseason berth while the Cleveland Browns are finding new and creative ways to lose games. The AFC North-leading Bengals would love nothing more than to add to their Buckeye State rival's misery on Sunday by completing a season sweep and handing the host Browns their seventh straight setback.

"Our goals are bigger than (just making the postseason)," said quarterback Andy Dalton, who threw three touchdown passes in Cincinnati's 31-7 victory over St. Louis last week and did the same in a 31-10 rout of Cleveland on Nov. 5. "The nice thing is that we've put ourselves in position where we can start handling that stuff as the season goes along. But our focus is getting this win right now, and that will set us up better for the end of the season." Cleveland will need to find its focus after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory on Monday, courtesy of a blocked field goal attempt which led to a touchdown as time expired in a 33-27 loss to Baltimore. "Tough one to wrap your brain around," Browns coach Mike Pettine said.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bengals -9.5. O/U: 43.5

ABOUT THE BENGALS (9-2): Tyler Eifert, who is listed as questionable for Sunday's tilt, has yet to practice this week after receiving a stinger in his neck versus the Rams. The tight end torched the Browns in the previous meeting last month by reeling in three of his NFL-leading 12 touchdown receptions. Running back Jeremy Hill rolled up a season-high 86 yards last week and could improve on that total when he faces Cleveland's 31st-ranked rush defense.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-9): The quarterback carousel made yet another turn this week as Pettine announced that Austin Davis will be the 24th starter for the club since 1999. "He deserves this opportunity," Pettine said of the 26-year-old Davis, who gets the nod after Josh McCown broke his right collarbone on Monday while former Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel tries to escape the doghouse. Davis completed 7-of-10 passes for 77 yards on Monday, with six completions in as many attempts on Cleveland's scoring drive.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Cincinnati is attempting to win 10 of its first 12 games in a season for the first time since 1975.

2. Cleveland has dropped 14 of its last 16 dating to last season.

3. The Bengals have won 16 of the last 22 meetings with the Browns.

PREDICTION: Bengals 27, Browns 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jacksonville at Tennessee

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans look to rebound from another difficult loss and win for the first time at home when they face the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Jaguars edged the Titans 19-13 just two weeks ago.

Tennessee is 0-6 at home on the season and has lost 11 straight at the not-so-friendly confines in Nashville. The Titans’ last home win was a 16-13 decision over the Jaguars in Week 6 of last season. Jacksonville is coming off a 31-25 home loss against the San Diego Chargers, a setback that dropped them two games back of AFC South Division co-leaders Indianapolis and Houston. Defense continues to be the downfall of the Jaguars, who rank 29th in the league in scoring, allowing 27.2 points a game.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Titans -2.5. O/U: 43.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (4-7): The Jaguars, just 1-4 on the road, are paced by quarterback Blake Bortles, who has thrown 22 touchdowns but 13 often-costly interceptions. Tight end Julius Thomas had his best game of the season in last week’s loss to the Chargers, hauling in nine catches for 116 yards and a touchdown and could see even more targets if wide receiver Allen Hurns is unable to go. Hurns suffered a concussion last week and was carted off the field. The second-year receiver out of Miami, who has seven touchdowns, is unlikely to play.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-9): Mariota threw three of his 16 touchdown passes in last week’s loss to the Raiders, a game which the Titans seemed to have secured until a defensive holding call on a fourth-down play extended Oakland’s game-winning drive. Five of Tennessee’s losses have come by less than a touchdown, including Week 11 when Jacksonville scored 10 points in the final 3:30 to rally for the win. Top receiver Kendall Wright is expected to return this week for the Titans, who average 18.5 points (30th in the league) and look for Mariota to become more a running threat after they gained just 44 yards on the ground last week.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Titans RB Dexter McCluster missed the past two weeks with a shoulder injury and remains questionable.

2. Antonio Andrews led Tennessee with 32 yards rushing last week and has 118 yards on 37 carries in his last three starts.

3. Bortles has thrown a touchdown pass in every game and an interception in nine of them.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 28, Titans 24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: San Francisco at Chicago

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

The San Francisco 49ers seek their first road win of the season when they visit the home-challenged Chicago Bears on Sunday. San Francisco fell to 0-5 away from Levi's Stadium in Week 11, when it suffered a 29-13 setback against Seattle.

The 49ers' offense hasn't produced enough to earn victories anywhere lately, as the team is 1-4 in a stretch during which they have scored 17 points or fewer in each contest. San Francisco has to like its chances to pick up a road victory against Chicago, which dropped to 1-4 at Soldier Field with Week 11's 17-15 loss to Denver. The Bears also have had trouble scoring recently, recording 15 and 17 points in their last two games, but are coming off a four-point win at Green Bay that put them in position to get to .500 for the first time since they were 3-3 on Oct. 12, 2014. Chicago also hopes to remain in the thick of the playoff race as it begins Week 13 just one game out of the final NFC wild-card spot.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bears -7.5. O/U: 43

ABOUT THE 49ERS (3-8): Carlos Hyde is unlikely to help San Francisco's struggling running game as it appears he will miss his fifth consecutive game with a stress fracture in his foot. The 49ers desperately need a strong effort on the ground from someone after being held to fewer than 70 yards in five of their last six contests. Anquan Boldin is 16 away from becoming the 11th player in NFL history with 1,000 receptions.

ABOUT THE BEARS (5-6): Chicago has won three of its last four contests, with each victory coming on the road. It has allowed an average of 15 points over those four games, but it has been a tale of two defenses for the team, which ranks second against the pass but 29th versus the run. Zach Miller has become one of Jay Cutler's favorite targets, as the backup tight end has caught four touchdown passes in the last four games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Bears have lost 11 of their last 14 at home.

2. San Francisco is visiting Soldier Field for the first time since suffering a 41-10 loss on Oct. 29, 2006.

3. Chicago TE Martellus Bennett (ribs) may return after missing last week's victory but likely will surrender some playing time to Miller.

PREDICTION: Bears 23, 49ers 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Denver at San Diego

When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

Brock Osweiler has stepped in for an ineffective and injured future Hall of Fame quarterback and has righted the ship for the Denver Broncos. Osweiler will look to lead the AFC West-leading Broncos to their third straight victory when they visit the division cellar-dwelling San Diego Chargers on Sunday.

While Denver failed to commit to Osweiler beyond this week's game, the fourth-year quarterback made a statement by throwing for 270 yards and a touchdown in a 30-24 overtime victory over previously unbeaten New England last week. Peyton Manning (foot) may have let the cat out of the bag on Wednesday by telling the Associated Press that he isn't close to returning to game action. While Denver is making decisions with an eye on the postseason, San Diego simply was happy to snap a six-game skid with a 31-25 victory at Jacksonville last week. Philip Rivers threw for four touchdowns in that contest, but has tossed 10 interceptions while losing six of his last seven meetings with his AFC West rival.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -4. O/U: 43

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (9-2): Denver's much-maligned ground attack was set in motion versus the Patriots, with C.J. Anderson rushing for a season-high 113 yards and two touchdowns - including a 48-yard scamper to end the contest. Anderson was named the AFC's Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts, but remains in the backup role to Ronnie Hillman, coach Gary Kubiak confirmed to reporters on Wednesday. Stud wideout Demaryius Thomas, who torched San Diego for 14 receptions for 228 yards and a touchdown last season, was limited to just one catch for 36 yards last week despite being targeted 13 times.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-8): Melvin Gordon amassed just 80 total yards from scrimmage last week, but Rivers told ESPN that the rookie running back is showing signs of getting comfortable in the backfield. "He seemed like he had a little juice - a little pop to him," Rivers said. "... This isn’t coming from him, but maybe he was just a little more relaxed - just running and not trying to be so perfect." Gordon might have to be against Denver, which is allowing an NFL third-best 89 yards per contest.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Denver veteran DE DeMarcus Ware (back) returned to practice on Wednesday and is in line to play for the first time since Oct. 8.

2. San Diego fired special teams coordinator Kevin Spencer on Wednesday, with assistant Craig Aukerman expected to oversee the units for the remainder of the season.

3. The Broncos re-signed Josh Bush on Tuesday in the wake of fellow S T.J. Ward's ankle injury. Bush played in three games with the team before being waived on Oct. 1.

PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Chargers 16

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kansas City at Oakland

When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, California

The Kansas City Chiefs attempt to continue their unlikely surge toward a playoff berth when they visit the AFC West-rival Oakland Raiders on Sunday. After losing five of its first six contests this season, Kansas City has gone on a winning streak that reached five games with a 30-22 triumph over Buffalo in Week 12.

The Chiefs, who are among a group of five AFC teams at 6-5, also posted five straight wins last season before having the run snapped with a loss at Oakland that began a slump that cost them a postseason appearance. The surprising Raiders remained in the playoff hunt with a 24-21 victory at Tennessee last week. The triumph halted Oakland's three-game slide and put it one game behind the pack vying for the AFC wild cards. The Raiders, who are looking to reach the .500 mark in the month of December for the first time since 2011, have lost three of their last four meetings with the Chiefs.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chiefs -3. O/U: 44

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (6-5): Kansas City's offensive line took a beating in the win over the Bills, as tackle Eric Fisher (neck) and center Mitch Morse (concussion) exited with injuries while guard Jeff Allen played through an ankle ailment. Fisher has been participating in practice on a limited basis, but Allen and Morse appear likely to miss Sunday's game. Also injured was linebacker Justin Houston, who hyperextended his knee but has not yet been ruled out of the showdown in Oakland.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (5-6): Derek Carr is hoping to move closer to spots in the Raiders' record books on Sunday. The second-year quarterback has thrown 24 touchdown passes this season, five shy of Jeff George (1997) for most in a campaign since Oakland joined the NFL and 10 fewer than the franchise single-season record held by Daryle Lamonica (1969). Center Rodney Hudson, who aggravated an ankle injury last week, practiced on a limited basis Thursday and is questionable for Sunday's matchup.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Chiefs QB Alex Smith enters with a streak of 283 consecutive passes without an interception, the fourth-longest run in league history.

2. Oakland WR Amari Cooper recorded 115 receiving yards against the Titans, becoming the first rookie receiver in franchise history with four 100-yard performances.

3. Kansas City RB Spencer Ware filled in for Charcandrick West last week and rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown in his first career start.

PREDICTION: Raiders 34, Chiefs 31

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Carolina at New Orleans

When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana


The Carolina Panthers return to the site where their regular-season winning streak began nearly a year ago when they travel to New Orleans to face the struggling Saints on Sunday. The Panthers can clinch the NFC South title and remain the NFL’s only undefeated team with a 16th consecutive regular-season victory.



The streak began with a 41-10 rout of New Orleans on Dec. 7, 2014, and the Panthers won their final four games to sneak into the playoffs. Their franchise-record 11-0 run to start this season included a closer call against the Saints – a 27-22 home victory in Week 3 in which New Orleans was without quarterback Drew Brees. The Panthers eked out several close wins early but have won their last three games by an average of 21.3 points - including a 33-14 triumph at Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Saints have lost three straight following a three-game winning streak and are coming off a 24-6 defeat at Houston.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -7. O/U: 50



ABOUT THE PANTHERS (11-0): Concerns about Carolina’s offense going into the season have proven to be unfounded thanks to a powerful running game led by Jonathan Stewart (832 rushing yards, four touchdowns) and quarterback Cam Newton (427 yards, seven TDs). Newton doesn’t air it out often but has been effective, passing for 2,466 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions despite a dearth of proven receivers. Carolina also has one of the league’s top defenses, ranking second against the run and fifth versus the pass while averaging three sacks per game - third-most in the league.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-7): New Orleans registered a season-low 268 total yards against the Texans and was held to fewer than seven points for the first time since 2005. Brees had another lackluster game, and Mark Ingram was held to 52 rushing yards – his fourth straight game with 80 yards or fewer and no touchdowns. That’s not encouraging for a team whose defense has struggled to stop anyone, ranking last in the NFL in scoring defense and next-to-last in total defense.



EXTRA POINTS

1. Newton has recorded passing and rushing touchdowns in each of his last two games against New Orleans and 30 times in his career - one shy of Steve Young’s NFL record.

2. Brees has thrown a touchdown pass in an NFL-record 51 consecutive home games.

3. Carolina DE Kony Ealy has recorded a sack in five straight contests.



PREDICTION: Panthers 30, Saints 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Philadelphia at New England

When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

After seeing one streak come to an end, the New England Patriots will attempt to keep a more impressive string alive when they host the sliding Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Patriots' bid for a perfect season was derailed in an overtime defeat at Denver last week, but they have gone 56 consecutive regular-season games without suffering back-to-back defeats.

New England absorbed a double whammy against the Broncos, not only squandering a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter but losing star tight end Rob Gronkowski to a sprained right knee. It was the latest blow to a receiving corps that lost Julian Edelman to a broken foot in Week 10, leaving Brady without his top two targets. The Eagles have dropped three in a row, including lopsided beatings at the hands of Tampa Bay and Detroit, but remain in the hunt in the watered-down NFC East. "The good news is we're only a game back in our division," said Philadelphia quarterback Sam Bradford, who is expected to return after missing two games with a shoulder injury.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Patriots -9-5. O/U: 49

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-7): While the absence of Bradford may partially explain the three-game skid, Philadelphia's defense has been shredded for 45 points in each of the last two games by a pair of offenses that rank among the bottom half in the league. Not only have the Eagles surrendered five touchdown passes apiece to Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston and Detroit's Matthew Stafford, but starting cornerback Nolan Carroll suffered an ankle injury in last week's loss. Running back DeMarco Murray has only one 100-yard game while second-year wideout Jordan Matthews has a team-high 58 catches.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-1): New England remains in the driver's seat for the top seed in the AFC and can clinch its seventh consecutive AFC East title with a victory and a loss by the New York Jets. Brady, who has thrown for 28 scoring passes against only four interceptions, is missing 138 catches and 16 TDs with the absences of Gronkowski and Edelman. The veteran quarterback hopes third-leading receiver Danny Amendola (49 receptions) can return after sitting out last weekend's loss. Starting linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins were limited in practice Thursday for a defense yielding 19.3 points.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Philadelphia has lost consecutive games by at least 28 points for the first time since 1971.

2. Brady, who is 4-0 versus the Eagles, needs one TD pass to move pass Dan Marino (420) for sole possession of third place on the all-time list.

3. Bradford has eight TD passes and zero interceptions in his last four games against AFC foes.

PREDICTION: Patriots 26, Eagles 24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2015
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Matt Hasselbeck faces a tough challenge in trying to remain unbeaten as a starter when he leads the resurgent Indianapolis Colts into a prime-time matchup at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Colts have won three in a row following a three-game skid to move into a tie with the Houston Texans atop the AFC South.

The 40-year-old Hasselbeck has been a savior while subbing for an injured Andrew Luck, improving to 4-0 after guiding Indianapolis to a 25-12 win over Tampa Bay last week. "Obviously, at his age, being 4-0 as a backup quarterback it's great for us," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "We're very, very fortunate and I just hope he keeps it going." The Steelers got a scare of their own at quarterback when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of last weekend's loss at Seattle with a concussion, but he received medical clearance this week. Pittsburgh is among four AFC teams tied with 6-5 records battling for the final two postseason slots.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Steelers -7. O/U: 48

ABOUT THE COLTS (6-5): Hasselbeck capped a 315-yard performance by tossing a pair of second-half touchdown passes to T.Y. Hilton as Indianapolis rallied to remain in contention for the division title. Donte Moncrief snagged eight catches for 114 yards to help the Colts overcome a dreadful running game - Frank Gore managed only 24 yards on 19 carries while backup Ahmad Bradshaw was lost for the season with a wrist injury. Indianapolis is among the league leaders with 14 interceptions but it also ranks 27th overall with an average of 272.8 passing yards allowed.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (6-5): Pittsburgh's pass defense is even worse than that of the Colts, surrendering 283.6 yards per game, and it was one of decisive factors a week ago in allowing three fourth-quarter scoring passes to Seattle. That negated a huge performance by Roethlisberger, who threw for a season-high 456 yards but also was intercepted twice for the Steelers, who are playing the first of three straight games against division leaders. While Markus Wheaton had nine catches for 201 yards and a TD last week, Antonio Brown has 33 receptions in the last three games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Roethlisberger set franchise records with 522 yards and six TD passes in a 51-34 win over Indianapolis last season.

2. Hasselbeck joined Brett Favre and Warren Moon as the only QBs to win four straight starts at age 40.

3. Pittsburgh is the first team with three players - Brown, Wheaton and Martavis Bryant - to have a 175-yard receiving game in the same season.

PREDICTION: Steelers 27, Colts 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 13

49ers (3-8) @ Bears (5-6) - Chicago won three of last four games, covered six of last eight; they're 1-4 at home, with only win 22-20 (+3) over Oakland. 49ers lost four of last five games; they're 1-4 as road underdogs, losing all five games by average of 35-14- four of five went over total. 49ers lost last four visits here, by 6-10-8-31; last SF win in Windy City was an '88 playoff game. SF scored 10.4 ppg in last five tilts; they've run ball for just 63 ypg in two post-bye games- they don't have a takeaway in last three games (-4). NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 7-2 against spread; NFC West road underdogs are 1-6. Four of last five SF games, three of last four Bear games stayed under total.

Bengals (9-2) @ Browns (2-9) -- Teams split series last three years; Cincinnati (-13) won first meeting 31-10 four weeks ago, one of eight NFL games this year with zero turnovers. Bengals split last eight visits here; they're 5-1-1 as favorite this season, 1-0 on road. Cincy is 4-1 on road, winning by 20-4-13-6 points. Browns had brutal loss late Monday nite, losing on blocked FG/TD on last play of game; they've lost six games in row (0-5 vs spread), McCown is out for year; either Davis/Manziel will start at QB. Cleveland lost last four home games, three by 7 or less points. Last five series games were decided by 10+ points. Over is 8-3 in Cleveland games, 4-1 in last five Bengal games.

Jaguars (4-7) @ Titans (2-9) -- Teams split season series last six years; Jags are 2-5 in last seven visits here, but won 19-13 (-3) in Thursday night game vs Titans two weeks ago- Jags' only TD drive was five yards. Tennessee lost its last 11 games at home, with three of five home losses this year by 3 or less points- they lost nine of last ten overall (1-4 vs spread in last five). Jax covered four of last five games; their only road loss by more than seven points was in Foxboro. Jaguars are 3-2 as road underdogs this year. Last four series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-23-2 vs spread. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Titan games; five of last seven Jax games went over.

Texans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6) -- Houston won last four games, allowing 8.8 ppg; they're tied for 1st in division, would be Wild Card if playoffs started today. Texans gave up two TDs on last 46 drives; they're 2-3 as road underdogs. Bills lost three of last four home games; they're 1-2 as home faves. Houston won last three series games, by 21-12-6 points; they won two of last three visits here. Texans have yet to run ball for 100+ yards on road; they outscored last five foes 67-20 in second half. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 5-3-1 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 11-8 vs spread, 6-5 on road. Last four Houston games stayed under total; four of last six Buffalo games went over.

Ravens (4-7) @ Dolphins (4-7) -- In last two games, Miami ran ball 23 times for just 82 yards; offensive coordinator got fired Monday- expect them to run ball more in this game. Baltimore allowed only 81.5 rushing ypg in last four games. Dolphins lost four of last five games, are 1-2 at home- they were outgained by 100 ypg in last three games. Ravens won three of last four games after scoring TD on blocked FG for walk-off win late Monday nite; they're 2-4 on road, the other win coming in OT at Pittsburgh. Favorites are 2-3 vs spread week after playing Jets; dogs are 2-0 the week after playing Cleveland. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 5-3-1 vs spread; AFC North road dogs are 5-5-1.

Panthers (11-0) @ Saints (4-7) -- Carolina won five of last seven games against New Orleans, beating Saints 27-22 (-10) at home in Week 3, Panthers averaged 9.8 ypa in that game. Carolina won two of last three visits here, with last four totals 44+ here. Saints lost last three games, allowing 35 ppg; they were outscored 47-7 in second half of those games- firing their DC didn't help in 24-6 loss at Houston last week, Texans ran ball for 165 yards. Carolina is last unbeaten team; they covered seven of last eight games. Four of Panthers' five road wins are by 11+ points. Over is 7-2 in last nine Carolina games, 5-2 in last five Saint games. New Orleans split last four home games, despite scoring 32.8 ppg- last three at home went over.

Seahawks (6-5) @ Vikings (8-3) -- Seattle has led in 4th quarter of every game this year; they're on road for first time in five weeks- three of its five road games (2-3) were decided by 3 or less points. Minnesota won six of last seven games, covered nine of last ten; they're 4-1 at home, losing last home game to Packers. Vikes are 7-0 when allowing less than 20 points; Seattle scored 21 ppg in first five road games. Seahawks didn't allow TD in its last two road games. Teams are 3-6 the week after playing Atlanta. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 9-5 against the spread; NFC West road teams are 4-9. Five of last seven Seattle games went over the total; under is 3-0-1 in last four Viking games. 11 of 13 series totals were 44+.

Cardinals (9-2) @ Rams (4-7) -- Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both its losses, one of which was 24-22 (-6.5) at home to Rams in Week 4, Rams ran ball for 164 yards, were outgained 447-328 n their first win over Cards in last four tries- Arizona lost two of last three visits here. Wheels fell off for Rams, losing four in row, scoring an average of 12.8 ppg- they've got five TDs on last 52 drives, turned ball over seven times on 25 drives last two games. St Louis is 2-5 as a dog, 1-1 at home- they're 3-2 SU at home. Redbirds won last five games, last three by 7 or less points; Arizona is just 13-43 on third down in last three series games. Three of last four Cardinal tilts went over the total; six of last seven Ram games stayed under.

Falcons (6-5) @ Buccaneers (5-6) -- Atlanta outgained Bucs 496-290 in first meeting, but was -4 in turnovers in 22-20 (-7) loss in Week 8; Falcons lost five of its last six games after a 5-0 start- Ryan has thrown huge INTs in last two games. Falcons are 2-2 in last four visits here- they scored 26 points (two TDs/21 drives) in two games on natural grass. Tampa is 4-1 when it allows 20 or less points; they're 2-3 at home, winning two of last three. Bucs are 16-29 on third down last two games. Teams are 2-6-2 vs spread week after playing Indy, 3-7 after playing Minnesota. Seven of last eight series totals were 43+; last five Atlanta games stayed under total. Atlanta has turned ball over 19 times in its last seven games (-10).

NJ Jets (6-5) @ NJ Giants (5-6) -- Both sides call this stadium home; technically this is Giants home game, but I'm quoting home stats both ways here. Giants won last five series games, with four of five wins by 7+ points- average total last four series games, 57.5. Jets are +14 in turnovers in their six wins, -13 in five losses; they're 4-2 in Swamp this year- they covered one of last five games. Giants are tied for first in NFC East despite being 5-6; red flag was going 2-3 in five-game stretch where they were + in turnovers all five games. Big Blue won three of last four home tilts. AFC East teams are 12-13-1 vs spread outside its division; NFC East teams are 9-17. Five of last seven Jet games went over total.

Broncos (9-2) @ Chargers (3-8) -- Denver is 2-0 with Osweiler starting, winning at Chicago 17-15 in his first road start; Broncos won seven of last eight series games, with wins by 7-14-12 points in last three. Denver won last four visits here. Chargers snapped 6-game skid last week; they lost last four home games, are 1-5 vs spread at home and was down 21-0 in game they covered. San Diego scored 30+ points in all three of its wins; they're 2-6 vs spread in its losses- they're 3-3 as an underdog. Broncos ran ball for 170-179 yards in last two games; they averaged 86 ypg before that. Eight of last 11 series totals were 47+. Teams are 3-5 week after playing New England. Three of last four San Diego home games stayed under total.

Chiefs (6-5) @ Raiders (5-6) -- KC won/covered last five games, running ball for 152.2 ypg after starting season 1-5, but Chiefs had major injury issues on OL last week, not sure how healthy they'll be here. Chiefs are 3-1 vs Oakland in Reid era, with wins all by 17+; they lost two of last three visits here, after winning eight in row at Oakland before that. Raiders snapped 3-game skid in Nashville LW; they're 5-2 vs spread as underdogs this year. Teams are 3-6 SU week after playing Titans and were favored in seven of nine games. Favorites are 1-5 vs spread week after playing Buffalo. Chiefs were + in turnovers seven games in row- they're +14 in turnovers their last five games.

Eagles (4-7) @ Patriots (10-1) -- Philly allowed 951 TY, 90 points in last couple games, giving up 11 TDs, five FGA on 21 drives. Pats lost first game LW, lost Gronkowski; Brady's three best targets are out here. NE won last four series games, scoring 31+ in three of the four. Eagles lost last three games, scoring 16.7 ppg; they're 1-2 as underdogs this year- Bradford is expected back at QB, not sure that is a help. Patriots are 3-0-3 as home favorite this year, 0-2-1 vs spread in last three overall. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 2-7 vs spread; AFC home favorites are 5-3-1. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; three of last four Eagle games went over.

Colts (6-5) @ Steelers (6-5) -- Indy is 4-0 when 40-year old backup Hasselbeck starts; they won last three games, covered last four- they're 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, but are 3-16 in last 19 games vs Steelers, losing 13 of last 15 visits here, winning in '68/'08. Pitt whacked Indy 51-34 LY. Steelers are 2-3 (1-4 vs spread) in last five games; they're 2-1 as home faves. Pitt scored 30+ points in last three games; Big Ben had concussion late in game LW but is expected to play here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 11-8, 6-5 on road. Seven of last nine Pitt games stayed under total.

Cowboys (3-8) @ Redskins (5-6) -- Dallas is 0-7 when backup QBs start; Romo is out for year. Cowboys lost eight of their last nine games, are 1-3 as a road dog. Dallas is 9-4 in last 13 games vs Redskins, 5-2 in last seven here, taking last two, 24-23/44-17. Washington is tied for first in NFC East despite its 5-6 record; they haven't won consecutive games yet this year- they're 5-6 despite being an underdog in 10 of 11 games (0-1 as favorite). Skins averaged over 10 ypa in last two wins- return of WR Jackson opens up their offense. Teams are 7-2-1 vs spread the week after playing the Giants. Four of five Dallas road games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
By Micah Roberts

The Seahawks have failed in every big moment game against elite competition this season and they face another challenge this week at Minnesota with both Jimmy Graham and Marshawn Lynch listed as 'out' for the non-conference affair. Based on some betting patterns in Las Vegas, this is one big game that Seattle is expected to win.

“We’ve seen a lot of sharp action on Seattle this week,” said CG Technology VP of risk Jason Simbal. “They took them at pick ’em, and also laid -1. There’s some pretty smart people on that side.”

CG Tech books currently have Seattle -1 (-115) while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has a high number of -2 on Friday afternoon.

Seattle’s first big test of the season came in Week 2 at Green Bay and they lost 27-17 as a 3.5-point underdog, a game they were leading 17-16 after three quarters. Then they went to Cincinnati and lost 27-24 in overtime as a three-point 'dog in Week 5 after being up 24-7 after three-quarters. The next week they met an undefeated Carolina squad where Seattle was a seven-point home favorite and lost 27-23, with another fourth-quarter meltdown defensively after leading 20-14 through the first 45 minutes.

Coming off a bye week in Week 10 at home, Arizona came in as three-point 'dogs to Seattle and won 39-32 in a game that probably wasn’t that as close as the score indicates.

Up until last weeks 39-30 home win over the Steelers, the Seahawks hadn’t really beat anyone -- the Bears weren’t a good team like there are now when they beat them 26-0 in Week 3. The rest of Seattle's six wins this season have been against San Francisco twice, Dallas and Detroit.

The Vikings have had an incredible run this season, but you can kind of say they haven’t beat anyone good this season either. When they had their big statement game at home against a reeling Packers squad that had lost three straight, they got beat 30-13.

With a loss this week, Minnesota would be 8-4 and tied with Green Bay in the NFC Central. Seattle (6-5), meanwhile, is hanging by a thread for their playoff lives as Arizona (9-2) is running away with the NFC West.

The sharp thinking here is that Seattle will finally respond in big game this season while Minnesota isn’t quite in their class.

“We’ve got two other games that have seen sharp action this week,“ said Simbal. “One I can understand and the other has me wondering. They took the Chargers at +4.5 against the Broncos in what could be a let-down spot after Denver's big win Sunday night, and I understand that play, but then they took St. Louis at +6 and then against at +5.5 against the Cardinals. I’m not sure of the reasoning behind that play...maybe you can help out with the logic in that one.”

I’d be glad to give it shot, Mr. Simbal.

Arizona has played below its rating in its last two games. And even though they won both those games, they got beat badly in two quarters by Cincinnati and almost lost at San Francisco last week. Then you’ve got St. Louis having already beat them this season, 24-22, while catching +7 at Arizona in Week 4. And finally, this is a home game for St. Louis, a desperate team on a four-game losing streak.

As for the Broncos game, that’s the one I don’t understand just because of some awful Chargers trends like being 0-8 ATS in the last eight games against AFC West teams or being 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games. This is definitely a let down spot, but solid defenses like Denver travel well and they also don’t have Peyton Manning to gift wrap momentum changing turnovers.

Simbal said some of his big parlay risk this week is on Chicago (-7 -120) over San Francisco, Cincinnati (-9.5) at Cleveland, and Baltimore (+4) at Miami -- it’s always funny to see the public on dogs, especially a sketchy team like Baltimore.

“The entire nation got to watch Matt Schaub look decent on Monday night for the Ravens, despite throwing a pick-six, while everyone believes the Dolphins are a disaster.

“Our biggest parlay risk of all is on the Panthers (-7) and Denver (-4),” said Simbal.

The Panthers look to go 12-0 and bettors don’t care that they’re laying a touchdown on the road because the Saints have lost three straight and Carolina won 41-10 last year at the Superdome. They have covered nine of 11 so far this season including its last four. From the public point of view, “why stop betting them now, they cover every week and the Saints defense allows 30 points per game.“

Below is a look at all the changes that have occurred from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s early Week 13 numbers that were opened last Wednesday and where the numbers have gone since then as of Friday.

The changes in some of the numbers have to do with adjustments made on a team rating based on Week 12 results, getting in line with the market on Sunday night, injuries and actual bets taken.

These opening numbers are always good to look at so you can see exactly what the Westgate’s true ratings are without any market infusion.

For instance, they had Green Bay -6 at Detroit last week and it would have landed exactly on their number if Green Bay would have kicked the final extra-point. Sharp money jumped all over Detroit +3 and the game kicked off with Green Bay -2.5. Hail Mary needed or not, the early number was solid.

However, the sharps said otherwise as they loved +3, which makes 3 the perfect starting point. Why give them +6 when they love +3? Does any of that make sense?

Okay, here we go:

San Francisco at Chicago: The Bears opened -7 (EV) and its now -7 (flat). CG Tech is using 7 (-115).

Cincinnati at Cleveland: The Bengals opened -7, but with QB Josh McCown 'out' and Austin Davis starting for the Browns, the Bengals are now -9.5.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Titans opened -2.5 and it hasn‘t moved. Easily the ugliest game on the board.

Houston at Buffalo: OFF the board initially because of Bills QB Tyrod Taylor‘s shoulder, and is now -3 (-120). South Point is at -3.5 (flat).

Baltimore at Miami: The Dolphins opened -6.5, but after Schaub proved effective (see above) in MNF win, the Dolphins re-opened -4.5 on Tuesday and then bet down to -3.5. It has settled at -4.

Carolina at New Orleans: The Panthers opened -3.5, and after the Saints looked so bad last week, Carolina was adjusted to -7 on Sunday night and it hasn’t moved. Wynn is showing -7 (EVEN) and others have it -7 (-105).

Seattle at Minnesota: The Seahawks opened -1.5, was reset Sunday at -1 and then moved down to pick ‘em. It’s currently at Seattle -1.5.

Arizona at St. Louis: The Cardinals opened -5.5 and was readjusted to -6.5 Sunday night. On Monday, they were bet down to -5.5 and that’s where they remain.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons opened -1.5 and when readjusted Sunday night it was the Buccaneers -2.5. Tampa Bay is now -1.

NY Jets at NY Giants: The Giants opened -1.5 and was reopened Jets -1 on Sunday night and bet up to Jets -2 where it sits now.

Denver at San Diego: The Broncos opened -6 and was reopened -4.5 on Monday morning following the SNF win over the Patriots coupled with the Chargers ending a six-game losing streak albeit to Jacksonville. It is now Denver -4.

Kansas City at Oakland: The Chiefs opened -2.5 and was reopened -3 (-120) following Kansas City's fifth straight win (and cover). After most of the week at -2.5, it was moved back to -3 (EV) just like most of the city.

Philadelphia at New England: The Patriots opened -9.5 and was reopened briefly Sunday night at -11.5. The SNF loss coupled with tight end Rob Gronkowski being injured had them reset at -9.5 on Monday morning where its stayed most of the week. The Eagles +10 did show up briefly on Monday but was gobbled up quickly and moved back to -9.5 .

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Steelers opened -6.5 (-120) and after Big Ben (Roethlisberger) practiced, Pittsburgh -7 was sent out Thursday where it still sits.

Dallas at Washington: The Cowboys opened -3 (-120) and then QB Tony Romo got hurt a day later on Thanksgiving. Following how bad Dallas looked without him in the loss to Carolina coupled with Washington's home win over the Giants to put them in first place of the NFC East, Washington was reset on Sunday night at -3 and is now -4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Public Fades - Week 13
By Kevin Rogers

Only one undefeated team remains in the NFL heading into December, as the Panthers waxed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving to improve to 11-0. New England fell apart late at Denver, blowing a 21-7 lead in an overtime loss to the Broncos to suffer its first defeat following a 10-0 start. Both the Panthers and Patriots are in line for home-field advantage in their respective conferences, as each team is listed as a touchdown-plus favorite in Week 13.

In this week’s edition of "Public Fades," we’ll look to go 2-0 for the first time since Week 8, even though the last four weeks have produced a 1-1 split each time. The Saints and Eagles had playoff aspirations but each team is currently below .500 with five weeks to go. Can either team pull off an upset against the best from the AFC and NFC on Sunday?

Panthers (-7, 50) at Saints

It’s been a season to remember in Carolina for its pro football team, looking to make its second Super Bowl in franchise history. The Panthers still have plenty of work to do, trying to remain undefeated while trying to hold off Arizona for the top seed in the NFC. Carolina dominated Dallas on Thanksgiving, 33-14 to improve to 5-0 SU/ATS away from Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers beat the Saints back in Week 3 by a 27-22 count, but failed to cash as 10-point favorites, while Drew Brees sat out that game due to injury.

New Orleans has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, starting 1-4, followed by a three-game winning streak to even their mark at 4-4. The Saints have fallen backwards again thanks to a three-game skid, capped off by a 24-6 setback at Houston last Sunday as 3 ½-point underdogs. New Orleans was held to single-digits for the third time since Brees took over at quarterback in 2006, as Sean Payton’s team is listed at their highest home underdog number in the past 10 years.

So why back the Saints?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says New Orleans’ offense will try to get on track at home, “With three straight losses, the playoff hopes for the Saints are slim sitting at 4-7, but the home results for New Orleans have been good with a 3-2 record with wins over the Cowboys, Falcons, and Giants and narrow losses to Tampa Bay and Tennessee. New Orleans is the third-most productive offensive team in the league posting 401 yards per game, more than 52 yards more per game than the 11-0 Panthers produce. The Saints do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but they are particularly vulnerable against the pass and Carolina is the fourth least productive passing team in the league.”

Nelson believes the Panthers peaked with their Thanksgiving rout of the Cowboys, “With extra time off this week having played on a big stage on Thanksgiving in Dallas, the Panthers will have a hard time bringing the same energy to a second straight road game knowing a bigger game with the season’s first meeting with Atlanta is up next. Last week’s lopsided result featured two defensive touchdowns for the Panthers, who also have the league’s best turnover margin at +16, breaks that may not continue all season and the Panthers are starting to reach their peak valuation.”

Eagles at Patriots (-9½, 49)

Philadelphia suffered an embarrassing defeat on national television on Thanksgiving, falling at Detroit, 45-14 as three-point underdogs. The Eagles allowed 45 points for the second straight week, as Mark Sanchez threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns in place of the injured Sam Bradford. This week, Bradford is expected back in the lineup, as the Eagles’ offense needs a jolt after being held to 19 points or less in four of the past five games. Philadelphia has received more than four points under Chip Kelly once only since 2013, getting blown out at Denver that season, 52-20 as 10-point underdogs.

The Patriots were on their way to an eleventh straight win to start the season, but New England squandered a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter of a 30-24 overtime loss at Denver. The rushing defense of the Patriots was shredded by the Broncos’ ground game, allowing 179 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning 48-yard touchdown scamper by C.J. Anderson. Tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a knee sprain and will miss Sunday’s game against the Eagles, adding to the laundry list of offensive weapons sidelined for New England.

So why back the Eagles?

Nelson says fading New England in this spot is a good idea, “The defensive yardage numbers are similar for these teams despite the contrasting scoring and records and the possibility of Bradford returning could provide a boost for the Eagles. The injuries are adding up for the Patriots on the receiving corps as well as on defense and while the Patriots have a great track record off a loss they are on a 21-36 ATS run when favored by more than seven points.”

NFL handicapper Antony Dinero breaks down all the changes of personnel the Eagles have to endure in order to compete in Foxboro, “Bradford is progressing to play, so his return would be an upgrade given how Sanchez has played. Jason Peters and Zach Ertz look like they’re returning and Ryan Mathews might make it back too. If nothing else, the Eagles may take a fairly fresh, talented squad into New England to see Tom Brady and the walking wounded. If Danny Amendola is out, the Pats will be down their top four reception leaders. It sounds like a massacre waiting to happen given how bad the Eagles have been, but they might find some unexpected fight simply to avoid being embarrassed.”

NFL expert Vince Akins provides an interesting betting angle regarding undefeated teams coming off losses late in the season, “There is a lot of pressure on a team to keep that undefeated record going, and when they lost their first game of the season as New England did in Denver last week, there is a bit of letdown the next game as a team re-adjusts to their new reality. In fact, teams in Week 6 of the season and beyond that just lost their first game of the season last game have covered just 40% of the time after that first loss and just 1-3 SU and ATS this season. There is plenty of room of New England to still win this game without playing to their full potential this week.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 13 Preview
By Dave Essler

Eagles-Patriots: I supposed they are in contention in the NFC East but I really wonder after the Lions game if they've got much left. All the Chip Kelly rumors and the losing shouldn't make for a focused unit going forward. Extra rest before traveling to New England. With Mark Sanchez (who Belichek knows from the Jets) and with Sprowles as the best player on the field, the Eagles are in trouble. If anyone knows how to play and/or defend tempo, it's New England. However, this game's total will be inflated due to the perception that Philadelphia scores and that the Patriots do, at least at home. We'll see how injured Amendola is - and if he can't go (again) then this game stays under.

Carolina-New Orleans: I guess there are still those that don't think the Panthers are for real. I'm beginning to at least give the credit for consistency, which is much easier to bet on. But remember this, they as badly as they beat Dallas, Dallas beat Dallas and the Panthers didn't have an offensive touchdown until midway through the third quarter. With that in mind I might look hard at this under. The Saints are bound to stop someone, and it's likely to be a division rival that they know well. I would not assume that the Saints are going to flip a switch anytime soon, regardless of whether they're at home or not. I did and do think the Texans' defense is well above average, and the interesting take away from the Saints game is that Brees' longest completion was 26 yards, and he averaged less than 10 yards per completion. Hence, under. And just when you think the Saints won't, they do, so I'll be looking at the Saints if Drew Carey says "The Price is Right".

Atlanta-Tampa Bay: The Falcons are now looking at a Wild Card after the great start, but after losing four straight (badly, more or less) I do have to question how much enthusiasm a guy like Dan Quinn can generate at this point in time. Clearly the Buc had been a trendy team, and nearly everyone expected them to beat the Colts. Perhaps THEY expected to beat the Colts, and we know what happens when you just think you'll win, especially in the NFL. Perhaps lesson learned there for this young team. Bridgewater didn't have to do much since the sieve of a defense Quinn was hired to fix allowed almost 200 yards rushing. I realize it was Adrian Peterson, but it was also at home and something the Falcons knew was coming and couldn't stop it, always a bad thing. Atlanta lost to the Bucs earlier at home so one might assume revenge, but it's more desperation for Atlanta, IMO. And the Bucs have no reason not to win this game. Honestly, they're the better team with the better players and the better coach. This is one that looks easy and may well be, I can not make a case for the Falcons here in any way. My only concern here is that the Bucs had only a little over 200 yards passing in a losing effort.

Bears-San Francisco: Clearly the Bears will be the public side but I am already leaning towards the 49ers here. Watching what they're doing to the Cardinals on Sunday tells me that they are playing hard, and of course we've got a Bears team that we just never know, and on that has been a far better bet on the road. Coming off the Packers win, even with the extra rest, I cannot expect them to simply make a seamless transition to the next game. Chicago is 1-4 at home and 1-3 in the division, and would essentially have to win out to make the playoffs. That would include winning at Minnesota, which is more likely than them beating the 49ers and the Redskins the next two weeks.

Colts-Steelers: A huge step-up in class and also a prime time game (SNF) for the Colts. Instinctively one would chalk up the Colts' win over the Bucs as nothing but a thing and that the Steelers will steam roll them. That may well be the case, but teams playing the week after playing the Seahawks haven't fared all that well. My knee-jerk reaction is that this is one of those rare prime time games that may well go over. We know the Steelers defense isn't stout, and that's being proven true in their game against Seattle. The total skyrocketed up and Seattle is putting points on the board, something they struggle to do. The Steelers probably won't catch the Bengals but they're in prime wild card position, and now a dangerous team having struggled through the Roethlisberger injury and come out smelling like roses. However, winning and covering the number are two different things. I do expect the Colts to score some, and the Indianapolis defense won't stop the Steelers from getting 30, IMO. My concern with the Colts is that after this game they've got two road division games, including one at Houston.

Rams-Cardinals: The Rams appear to be in even more trouble, Foles throws three picks and Mannion finishes the game. I suppose on the surface that'd be enough to simply assume the Cardinals will play better than they did at San Francisco, but we know how assumptions go. Some of that ineptness under center by St. Louis could well be attributed to the Bengals defense. The caveat here is that if indeed the Cardinals need more motivation, they lost in week one to the Rams at home. I can almost concede the Division to Arizona, but now they're going to have to fight the Vikings for the #2 seed, all things being equal. The Rams are not giving up a ton of points, so I look for this one to stay under.

Seattle-Minnesota: I suppose, once again, that the obvious choice is to jump on the red-hot Vikings and fade Seattle on the road, and that may well be the case. But, Minnesota is probably not going to be able to rely on Peterson all night as they've been able to do against lesser defenses. The Seahawks defense might not be what it WAS, but they are not a sieve by any means. Like many Vikings games it's their defense that's carried them and I expect this to be no exception. You know I'd try to make a case for taking points, and the intangible here is experience. The Vikings "pressure to win" is getting amped up week after week, and they find themselves in a position that's rare air to them. This is another game that regardless of the total, and it should be a low one, should struggle to see points. The Vikings have that head-to-head game at Arizona that may well decide the #2 seed in the NFC next week, so I am not overly hasty to take them, yet.

Houston-Buffalo: We know the Texans are playing well, and we know the Bills played well enough to win at Kansas City, but because they DID NOT win I don't think I can take them here, yet. The one thing Houston is likely to have trouble with on defense is a mobile QB, and clearly Taylor is. Houston just beat three teams with QB's that aren't know for running, so this game to me IS all about the matchups. I was a little surprised the Bills let Ware run wild AND let Maclin have a career day, and since Hoyer is probably every bit as good as Smith, Houston may score some points here. Taylor threw for almost 300 yards with no picks, so Buffalo may put some points up as well. Over is the best bet here, at least my early thought says so. I said before the season I liked the Texans and took some heat for that, but because of that I cannot take the Bills. I did that (flipped) when UGA played Alabama after having UGA as the most over rated team in CFB.

Oakland-Kansas City: This one is classic - what a difference a few weeks make. If this game were played two weeks ago I just cannot see the Chiefs being favored, but because it's not, and the Chiefs just played really well beating Buffalo, they''re -3 here. I am still puzzled by all the yards the Chiefs allowed to the Bills, and cannot see any different result on the road against a better team. At the very least I'd think this game goes over - but it's early. Oakland didn't blow out the Titans, but is was a road win in the NFL, so I'm not sure how they've been disrespected here. The Raiders had a 10:00 advantage in time of possession against Tennesse, but committed 11 penalties, in typical Raider fashion. They did put up over 400 yards of offense. We'll see what happens, but if you like the Raiders then +3 now or never because I cannot see it going to +3.5 under too many circumstances, like none, actually. Big coaching edge to the Chiefs, talent to the Raiders (sorry), defense the Chiefs if not solely on points allowed. The Raiders have lost lately, but to the Steelers, at the Vikings, and to the "sort of up and coming" Lions on the road.