NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17
By JASON LOGAN
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 17:
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)
Panthers’ red-zone struggles vs. Falcons’ red-zone success
Carolina can’t afford to leave points on the table when it visits the Falcons in Week 17. The winner of this game gets the NFC South crown (which I’d have to believe looks like one of those paper crowns from Burger King, with the way this division has stunk) and a ticket to the postseason.
The Panthers have problems inside the 20-yard line, finding paydirt on only 45.45 percent of its red-zone trips and is 27th in the NFL in red-zone efficiency. Carolina came away empty handed in its only venture inside the 20-yard line in its last meeting with Atlanta – a 19-17 home loss as 2.5-point underdog in Week 11.
The Falcons were just 1 for 3 in the red zone during that win but have been one of the best scoring teams when sniffing the end zone, scoring touchdowns on 64.29 percent of its red-zone sets. Atlanta has upped that red-zone TD production to 72.73 percent in its last three games and has picked up points in eight of its last 11 red-zone trips.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14, 47.5)
Raiders’ fourth-down dominance vs. Broncos’ fourth-down defense
The Raiders have nothing to lose heading into Week 17, which makes them a very dangerous team. Interim head coach Tony Sparano is trying to beef up his resume before hitting the job hunt and a victory over the Broncos would look very impressive to possible landing spots – if he doesn’t stay in Oakland.
Sparano won’t hesitate to roll the dice, especially on fourth down, where the Silver and Black have actually been good this season. The Raiders have converted on 64.29 percent of their fourth downs this season – third best in the league – and will likely throw caution to the wind if they get behind against the Broncos.
Denver hasn’t been shutting the door on opponents when they roll the dice on fourth down, allowing foes to convert on 62.5 percent of those gambles. The Broncos have gotten softer in recent games, allowing their last three opponents move the chains on three of their four fourth-down attempts.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3, 53)
Eagles’ big-play problems vs. Giants’ WR Odell Beckham
The Eagles’ issues at corner burned them bad in the home stretch of the season. Philadelphia watched corner Bradley Fletcher get torched on deep tosses by Dallas WR Dez Bryant and Washington WR DeSean Jackson the past two weeks. Defensive coordinator has benched Fletcher and instead throws LB-turned-CB Nolan Carroll out there in Week 17.
The Eagles have allowed 36 passes of 25 yards or more this season – tied with the Colts and Giants for most in the NFL. Philadelphia comes into the final game of the season with its head in its hands, and facing one of the best big-play receivers in the NFL. New York WR Odell Beckham has caught 10 passes of 25 yards or more heading into Week 17.
The Giants’ one-man highlight reel has plenty to prove Sunday. The talented rookie WR was snubbed by the Pro Bowl voters despite catching 11 touchdowns and posting 1,120 yards receiving. Oh, and he missed the first four games of the season with a hamstring injury. Had Beckham been healthy, we’re looking at an additional 407 yards and four more scores, which would make him third in yards and first in touchdowns. He’ll make up more ground versus the Eagles Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 47.5)
Bengals’ weakness to receiving RBs vs. Steelers’ RB Le’Veon Bell
If you’re currently wearing a makeshift championship belt or drinking from a tiny trophy, chances are you won your respective fantasy football league. And, chances are, Pittsburgh’s dynamic RB Le’Veon Bll got you there.
Bell is a threat to run or catch the ball on any down and heads into Week 17 with 1,341 gains on the ground and another 774 yards in receiving. He had just one catch against the Chiefs last weekend but had five for 72 yards versus the Falcons the week before. And, in his last game against the Bengals – a 42-21 win in Week 14 – Bell rumbled for 185 yards rushing and two scores while tacking on an addition 50 yards and a score through the air.
Cincinnati has had trouble with versatile running backs this season. The Bengals have allowed RBs to reel in 716 total yards receiving on 85 catches, and gave up notable gains to receiving running backs in games against Denver, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Indianapolis, which had 77 passing yards and a touchdown go through its RBs.
By JASON LOGAN
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 17:
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)
Panthers’ red-zone struggles vs. Falcons’ red-zone success
Carolina can’t afford to leave points on the table when it visits the Falcons in Week 17. The winner of this game gets the NFC South crown (which I’d have to believe looks like one of those paper crowns from Burger King, with the way this division has stunk) and a ticket to the postseason.
The Panthers have problems inside the 20-yard line, finding paydirt on only 45.45 percent of its red-zone trips and is 27th in the NFL in red-zone efficiency. Carolina came away empty handed in its only venture inside the 20-yard line in its last meeting with Atlanta – a 19-17 home loss as 2.5-point underdog in Week 11.
The Falcons were just 1 for 3 in the red zone during that win but have been one of the best scoring teams when sniffing the end zone, scoring touchdowns on 64.29 percent of its red-zone sets. Atlanta has upped that red-zone TD production to 72.73 percent in its last three games and has picked up points in eight of its last 11 red-zone trips.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14, 47.5)
Raiders’ fourth-down dominance vs. Broncos’ fourth-down defense
The Raiders have nothing to lose heading into Week 17, which makes them a very dangerous team. Interim head coach Tony Sparano is trying to beef up his resume before hitting the job hunt and a victory over the Broncos would look very impressive to possible landing spots – if he doesn’t stay in Oakland.
Sparano won’t hesitate to roll the dice, especially on fourth down, where the Silver and Black have actually been good this season. The Raiders have converted on 64.29 percent of their fourth downs this season – third best in the league – and will likely throw caution to the wind if they get behind against the Broncos.
Denver hasn’t been shutting the door on opponents when they roll the dice on fourth down, allowing foes to convert on 62.5 percent of those gambles. The Broncos have gotten softer in recent games, allowing their last three opponents move the chains on three of their four fourth-down attempts.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3, 53)
Eagles’ big-play problems vs. Giants’ WR Odell Beckham
The Eagles’ issues at corner burned them bad in the home stretch of the season. Philadelphia watched corner Bradley Fletcher get torched on deep tosses by Dallas WR Dez Bryant and Washington WR DeSean Jackson the past two weeks. Defensive coordinator has benched Fletcher and instead throws LB-turned-CB Nolan Carroll out there in Week 17.
The Eagles have allowed 36 passes of 25 yards or more this season – tied with the Colts and Giants for most in the NFL. Philadelphia comes into the final game of the season with its head in its hands, and facing one of the best big-play receivers in the NFL. New York WR Odell Beckham has caught 10 passes of 25 yards or more heading into Week 17.
The Giants’ one-man highlight reel has plenty to prove Sunday. The talented rookie WR was snubbed by the Pro Bowl voters despite catching 11 touchdowns and posting 1,120 yards receiving. Oh, and he missed the first four games of the season with a hamstring injury. Had Beckham been healthy, we’re looking at an additional 407 yards and four more scores, which would make him third in yards and first in touchdowns. He’ll make up more ground versus the Eagles Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 47.5)
Bengals’ weakness to receiving RBs vs. Steelers’ RB Le’Veon Bell
If you’re currently wearing a makeshift championship belt or drinking from a tiny trophy, chances are you won your respective fantasy football league. And, chances are, Pittsburgh’s dynamic RB Le’Veon Bll got you there.
Bell is a threat to run or catch the ball on any down and heads into Week 17 with 1,341 gains on the ground and another 774 yards in receiving. He had just one catch against the Chiefs last weekend but had five for 72 yards versus the Falcons the week before. And, in his last game against the Bengals – a 42-21 win in Week 14 – Bell rumbled for 185 yards rushing and two scores while tacking on an addition 50 yards and a score through the air.
Cincinnati has had trouble with versatile running backs this season. The Bengals have allowed RBs to reel in 716 total yards receiving on 85 catches, and gave up notable gains to receiving running backs in games against Denver, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Indianapolis, which had 77 passing yards and a touchdown go through its RBs.
