Sunday 12/18/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Sunday’s games

Clippers won five of last six games with Washington; five of last seven series games went over. LA won three of last five visits here. Clippers won last four games but are 0-3 vs spread in last three; they’re 1-5 in last six games as a road favorite. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Wizards won their last four home games, won four of last five overall; they’re 1-2 as a home underdog. Over is 8-1 in last nine Washington games.

Kings won last three games with Dallas, by 3-22-31 points— they won by 31 here 11 days ago; three of last four series games went over total. Sacramento covered eight of last 10 series games, four of last five here. Kings are 0-3 vs spread in game following their last three wins; they’re 2-0 as road favorites. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Mavericks lost seven of last ten games; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as a home dog. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Memphis won its last two games with Utah by six points each; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Teams split last four series games played here. Utah won eight of its last ten games; they’re 6-0 as road favorites this year- three of their last four games stayed under total. Grizzlies won seven of last nine games; they’re 5-2 as home underdogs. Last six Memphis games stayed under the total.

Home side won last four Brooklyn-Philadelphia games; Nets lost by 5-6 points in last two visits here. Eight of last nine series games stayed under total. Brooklyn lost six of last eight games; they’re 4-6-1 as road underdogs. Five of their last six games went over total. 76ers are 0-2 as favorites this year; they lost eight of last ten games. Five of last six Philly games stayed under the total.

Raptors won nine of their last ten games with Orlando, but Magic covered last four series games; Toronto won four of last five games in this building. Raptors won eight of last ten games, are 1-2 as a road favorite; eight of last ten series went over total. Orlando lost four of last six games; they’re 0-5 as a home underdog. Six of their last seven games went over the total.

Celtics/covered won their last four games with Miami; they won/covered last three games in this building. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Boston lost four of last six games; they’re 5-3 as road favorites- three of their last four games stayed under total. Miami lost six of its last eight games; they’re 3-4 as home underdogs. Under is 4-2 in Heat’s last six games.

Spurs won last four games with New Orleans but Pelicans are 7-2 vs spread in last nine series games. New Orleans lost last four visits to Alamo by 2-13-8-19 points (2-2 vs spread). Pelicans lost seven of last nine games; they’re 1-4 in last five games as a road underdog. Last three NO games stayed under total. Spurs won seven of last eight games, are 3-7 as home favorites; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top 25 roundup: Monk scores 47 as No. 6 Kentucky outlasts No. 7 UNC 103-100
By The Sports Xchange

LAS VEGAS -- Kentucky freshman Malik Monk scored a career-high 47 points, including a go-ahead 3-pointer with 22 seconds left, to help the sixth-ranked Wildcats to a 103-100 victory over No. 7 North Carolina on Saturday.
After Monk's basket, the Tar Heels' Isaiah Hicks missed a layup and North Carolina fouled Kentucky freshman De'Andre Fox. He made both free throws to put the Wildcats (10-1) ahead 103-100.
The Tar Heels (10-2) inbounded the ball and called timeout with two seconds left at halfcourt to set up the last shot. The cross-court pass was knocked out of bounds by Fox. After a review by the referees, 0.7 seconds was put on the clock.
A 3-point attempt by Kenny Williams at the buzzer missed with the ball stuck between the rim and backboard.
North Carolina's Justin Jackson, who also set a career-high with 34 points, made a layup with 47 seconds to put the Tar Heels ahead 100-98.
This is most points North Carolina has allowed since a 93-81 loss at Duke in March 2014. The last time the Tar Heels allowed more than 100 points was in a 103-90 loss to Texas in December 2009.

No. 18 Butler 83, No. 9 Indiana 78
INDIANAPOLIS -- Kelan Martin scored 28 points, including five 3-pointers, and the Bulldogs held off a late rally to defeat the Hoosiers in the Crossroads Classic.
Kamar Baldwin and Andrew Chrabascz each added 14 points for Butler (10-1), which beat fellow Top 25 members Arizona, Cincinnati and Indiana (8-2) this season.
James Blackmon Jr., who led the Hoosiers with 26 points, made a 3-pointer to close the deficit to 79-77, but the Bulldogs got a dunk from Tyler Wideman off a well-designed out of bounds play with 15.8 seconds to play and two free throws from point guard Tyler Lewis with 10.6 seconds to go to account for the final score.
Butler improved to 5-1 in the Crossroads Classic and 11-3 in Bankers Life Fieldhouse, only several miles south of the Butler campus.

No. 15 Purdue 86, No. 21 Notre Dame 81
INDIANAPOLIS -- Caleb Swanigan scored 26 points, and Vince Edwards added 20, helping the Boilermakers rally from a 14-point halftime deficit to defeat the Fighting Irish in the Crossroads Classic.
Purdue (9-2) trailed by as many as 17 in the first half when Notre Dame (9-2) shot 60.6 percent from the field, but the Boilermakers opened the second half on a 12-2 run and continued to pound the ball inside to Swanigan and Edwards.
Swanigan's final field goal with 1:26 remaining gave Purdue an 82-79 lead, and two Ryan Cline free throws with one minute to play gave the Boilermakers an 84-79 advantage.
Bonzie Colson had 23 points to lead the Fighting Irish, and Matt Farrell added 22.

No. 2 UCLA, 86, Ohio State 73
LAS VEGAS -- The Bruins' high-scoring offense did not reach its average, but UCLA was still efficient with four players in double figures to remain unbeaten.
Aaron Holiday and Bryce Alford each had 20 points for the Bruins, who are 12-0 for the first time since starting 14-0 in 2006-07. UCLA made 48.4 percent of its shots against a Buckeyes' defense that allowed opponents to shoot only 37.9 percent entering the game.
The Bruins, who averaged 97.9 points before Saturday, scored far more than what Ohio State (8-3) allowed (61.7 points per game).
UCLA was also led by Aaron Hamilton's 17 points, and T.J. Leaf's 13 points and nine rebounds. Freshman Lonzo Ball had eight points, nine rebounds and nine assists.
Ohio State's Marc Loving had a team-high 19 points, 13 of which came in the first half.

No. 3 Kansas 89, Davidson 71
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The Jayhawks turned a close game into a runaway with an 18-3 run late in the second half and rolled over the Wildcats.
Josh Jackson and Frank Mason each scored 18 points, and Svi Mykhailiuk (13 in his first career start) and Devonte Graham (10) also reached double figures as Kansas (10-1) won its 10th straight this season and 49th in a row at home.
Jackson added eight rebounds, three assists and two steals.
Davidson, which led 49-44 early in the second half, dropped to 5-4 after returning from a 10-day break for finals.

No. 4 Baylor 82, Jackson State 57
FORT HOOD, Texas -- The Bears absorbed the Tigers' hot start and pulled away in the second half, improving to 10-0.
Baylor was playing a home game at the U.S. military post for the second straight season and eventually put on a show in the second half.
Al Freeman scored 19 points to lead the Bears. Jo Lual-Acuil added 17 points and five blocks.
Edric Dennis scored 21 points to lead Jackson State (3-8).
The lead exchanged hands eight times in the first half, but the Bears never trailed in the final 20 minutes and led by as many as 28.
Baylor shot 49 percent from the field and held the Tigers to 28 percent shooting from the floor.

No. 10 Creighton 66, Oral Roberts 65
OMAHA, Neb. -- The Bluejays turned to their defense to preserve their undefeated season with a victorty over the Golden Eagles.
Creighton, best known for its prolific offense, needed several key stops in the final two minutes to escape with their 11th win of the season.
Oral Roberts (2-10) led 65-60 following a 3-pointer by Albert Owens with 6:08 remaining. Those were the final points the Golden Eagles scored.
Marcus Foster scored 22 points for Creighton. Maurice Watson added 13 points and 10 assists while Justin Patton finished with 10 points.
Owens led all scorers with 23 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Nebraska native Jalen Bradley added 16 points for Oral Roberts.

No. 11 Louisville 87, Eastern Kentucky 56
LOUISVILLE -- The Cardinals used a 26-0 run to overpower the Colonels.
Louisville (10-1) was led by Donovan Mitchell's 15 points in only 19 minutes.
Eastern Kentucky (6-6) was led by Nick Mayo with 15 points.
The Colonels started the game on a 7-0 run, which included a 3-pointer by former Cardinals walk-on Dillon Avare to start the game. Eastern Kentucky led 12-6 with 15:32 left before halftime and were tied with Louisville at 16 with 7:26 remaining.
Then the floodgates opened for the Cardinals' offense and Louisville's typically stout defense took over.

No. 12 West Virginia 112, Missouri-Kansas City 67
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. -- The Mountaineers pulled away from the Kangaroos with 24 consecutive points in the first half, giving fans an early start in celebrating coach Bob Huggins' 800th victory.
Nathan Adrian's 13 points led seven players in double figures and West Virginia forced 27 turnovers during the 45-point blowout.
Daxter Miles, Brandon Watkins and Esa Ahmad scored 12 points apiece for the Mountaineers (9-1), while Lamont West, Jevon Carter and Teyvon Myers all had 10.
LaVell Boyd paced UMKC (7-6) with 14 points. Miles had four steals, while Tarik Phillip and Carter made three each for West Virginia, which came in allowing 57 points per game -- third-fewest in the nation.

No. 13 Virginia 79, Robert Morris 39
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. -- The Cavaliers put four players in double figures in their return from an 11-day exam hiatus to knock off the Colonials.
Devon Hall scored 11 of his career-high 13 points in the first half to lead Virginia (9-1). Kyle Guy matched Hall with 13 points while Jack Salt and Jarred Reuter put in 10 points apiece.
The Cavaliers' 40-point win was their second such kind this season as they held Robert Morris (3-9) without a field goal for the final seven minutes.
Virginia shot 60 percent and used a bevy of runs to squeeze the life out of the Colonials. The Cavaliers got 48 points in the paint and 41 points from their bench.

No. 16 South Carolina 77, South Florida 66
TAMPA, Fla. -- PJ Dozier scored a career-best 23 points while notching his fourth consecutive 20-point outing to lead the Gamecocks over the Bulls.
Duane Notice scored 14 of his 15 points in the second half as South Carolina (9-1) overcame a six-point halftime deficit. Malik Kotsar recorded 11 points and nine rebounds and Rakym Felder scored 11 points.
Jahmal McMurray poured in a season-best 25 points and drained five 3-point baskets for the South Florida (5-4), which dropped its 20th consecutive game against Top 25 foes. Malik Fitts contributed 12 points and eight rebounds and Geno Thorpe added 11 points and nine rebounds.
Notice knocked down all four of his second-half 3-point attempts to help the Gamecocks pull away.

No. 17 Xavier 69, Wake Forest 65
CINCINNATI -- Trevon Bluiett scored 20 points and Edmond Sumner added 17 to lift the Musketeers to their 29th straight non-conference home win in the Skip Prosser Classic.
It was the sixth meeting in honor of Prosser, who served as coach at both schools before his passing in 2007.
Xavier (8-2) overcame 15 turnovers, including six by Sumner.
The Demon Deacons misfired on several potential game-tying 3-point attempts in the closing seconds and Bluiett hit some key free throws to seal the win.
Bryant Crawford led Wake Forest (8-2) with 20 points. John Collins, who averages a double-double this season, had 12 points and 12 rebounds for the Deacons.

No. 19 Arizona 67, Texas A&M 63
HOUSTON -- Dusan Ristic scored 18 points and Lauri Markkanen added 17 as the Wildcats built a huge lead and held on to beat the Aggies in the Lone Star Shootout.
Arizona (10-2) led by 22 points in the middle of the second half when Texas A&M got sloppy with the basketball and committed turnovers that led to four straight baskets for the Wildcats.
But the Aggies made a final charge, cutting the Arizona advantage to 65-60 with 36 seconds to play on a layup by Tyler Davis. DJ Hogg hit a 3-pointer that brought Texas A&M to within 65-63, but Arizona's Rawle Alkins hit two free throws with 15 seconds to play to push the Wildcats' lead to 67-63 and secure the victory. Arizona won despite going the final 8:11 without a field goal.
Davis led all scorers with 23 points and added 10 rebounds for te Aggies (7-3).

No. 22 Oregon 83, UNLV 63
PORTLAND, Ore. -- Dillon Brooks scored 20 points to lead the Ducks to victory over the Rebels.
Tyler Dorsey added 18 points and Jordan Bell had 16 points and 12 rebounds as Oregon (10-2) win its eighth straight.
Jovan Mooring scored 20 points and Tyrell Green had 18 to pace UNLV (6-5).
The Ducks led by four at halftime but opened the second half on a 10-0 run. Cheickna Dembele ended the spurt before Dorsey and Bell hit back-to-back baskets and Brooks added a score to put Oregon up 53-35.

No. 23 Florida State 83, Manhattan 67
SUNRISE, Fla. -- The Seminoles defended their second trip into the Top 25 Poll a lot better than its first when they downed the it downed the Jaspers in the Orange Bowl Basketball Classic.
Florida State (11-1), which reached the poll in Week 2 at No. 25 but were promptly dropped a week later after a loss to Temple, handled business this time behind 16 points from Dwayne Bacon, the Seminoles' leading scorer.
Manhattan (3-8) couldn't capitalize on its momentum from a victory over Fordham that captured the "Battle of the Bronx" title. Although the Jaspers, who came in as 25-point underdogs, hung tough for most of the game behind a game-high 18 points from leading scorer Zavier Turner.

No. 24 USC 82, Troy 77
LOS ANGELES -- Jordan McLaughlin made a go-ahead layup in the final minute to help USC escape with a victory over Troy in a battle of Trojans.
McLaughlin had 21 points for USC (10-0), which is off to its best start since going 16-0 to begin the 1970-71 season. Chimezie Metu had 18 points and eight rebounds. Elijah Stewart scored 11 points and Nick Rakocevic added 10.
Wesley Person led Troy (6-5) with 19 points. Jordon Varnado had 17 points and eight rebounds. Kevin Baker scored 15 points and Jeremy Hollimon had 13.

No. 25 Cincinnati 119, Fairleigh Dickinson 68
CINCINNATI -- Kevin Johnson scored a career-high 18 points and Jacob Evans added 17 as the Bearscats pounded the Knights.
Seven players scored in double figures, helping Cincinnati (9-2) score the most points in any game during Mick Cronin's 10 seasons as coach. The Bearcats' Kyle Washington returned to the starting lineup and finished with 12 points and eight rebounds.
Stephan Jiggetts led Fairleigh Dickinson (2-9) with 24 points and Darian Anderson added 13 for the Knights, who lost seven straight games by an average margin of 18 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Gonzaga Bulldogs (10-0) at Tennessee Volunteers (6-4)

Date: December 18, 2016 4:00 PM EDT

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- After Gonzaga upped its season-opening winning streak to 10 games on Dec. 10 with a 61-43 win over Akron, coach Mark Few didn't sound like someone ready to bask in the glow.

"I live for the next game," he said. "I don't spend a lot of time looking back."

Few's next game takes him to a venue known more for hockey -- Bridgestone Arena, home of the Nashville Predators. The No. 8 Bulldogs and Tennessee will meet Sunday in yet another test against a top 10 foe for the Volunteers (6-4) and the last stiff non-conference contest for Gonzaga (10-0).

Aside from an opening night loss to Chattanooga, the preseason favorite to win the Southern Conference, the list of Tennessee losses reads like a who's who of college basketball royalty. The Volunteers fell to then-No. 16 Wisconsin and No. 13 Oregon before Thanksgiving in Maui, then suffered a tough 73-71 loss last Sunday at No. 7 North Carolina after leading for most of the game.

This game also gives the Vols an opportunity for some revenge on the Bulldogs, who beat them 89-79 last December in Seattle.

"They're a terrific team," second-year Tennessee coach Rick Barnes said. "They're always good, but people that see them a lot tell me they're Final Four good. It's a good opportunity, and we'll see what we can do."

The Vols are coming off a 92-77 win Thursday night over Lipscomb, outscoring it 43-19 in the second half after allowing 11 3-pointers in the first half. Freshman forward Grant Williams was the spark offensively with a career-high 30 points.

Williams' performance came a day after Barnes told him that he was disappointed because he was drifting outside too often offensively and not staying in the post.

"He expects more out of me and I should do a better job of that," Williams said. "Bringing it every night is something I should be doing and need to do a better job with."

Williams is Tennessee's second-leading scorer at 10.7 points per game while guard Robert Hubbs is pacing the team in scoring (16.5 ppg) and rebounding (5.1). Lamonte Turner is contributing 10.1 points for the Vols, who are averaging 80.2 points and canning nearly 77 percent at the foul line.

Gonzaga counters with great balance and depth. All five starters average at least 9.4 points. led by guard Nigel Williams-Goss (13.4 ppg, 4.7 assists). Center Przemek Karnowski tallies 12.4 points and point guard Josh Perkins averages 11.7, sinking 22 of 41 3-pointers.

The Bulldogs also get 10 points per game off the bench from 7-0 freshman Zach Collins, who's canning almost 70 percent of his field goal attempts, and are averaging 82.7 points despite their season-low output against Akron.

Few wasn't terribly upset with having to engage in a half-court grinder against the Zips. After all, his team figures to face that style of play more than a few times in the West Coast Conference when they aren't dueling No. 20 St. Mary's or high-octane BYU.

"They push you to the limit physically," Few said of Akron. "They are a heck of a program. We didn't let our frustrations on offense bleed over to the defensive side."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Sunday’s best 13 games

Home side won last three Georgia State-Old Dominion games; all three games were decided by 6 or less points. Monarchs scored 51.5 pts/game in losing their last two games; they’ve got #346 eFG%, making only 38.1% inside arc, 58.8% on foul line, but they’re 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with only one of those wins by more than 8 points. Georgia State is 0-3 in true road games, losing by 18-8-22 points; they turn ball over 21.4% of time. C-USA home favorites are 11-11 vs spread; Sun Belt road underdogs are 15-21.

Kent State is 7-3 vs schedule #346, 6-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200; they’re grabbing 40.8% of own missed shots (#5 in country). Flashes are starting a freshman, two sophs. Wright State lost last three D-I games, allowing 83.3 pts/game; Raiders are #77 experience team, but have new coach and are turning ball over 21.7% of time- they start three juniors, two seniors. Raiders’ subs play #322 minutes; Kent’s subs play #28 minutes. MAC home favorites are 11-14 vs spread; Horizon road underdogs are 17-19.

St Joe’s made 15-33 on arc in 79-65 home win over Illinois State LY; game was 45-26 at half. Hawks are 5-4 vs schedule #56; they won last two games over Drexel/Princeton by total of nine points, both on road. St Joe’s is 1-4 in top 100 games. Redbirds are 5-0 at home, 0-3 on road; only one of their five home wins was by less than 14 points. ISU is making 40.3% on arc, but they turn ball over 20.5% of time. Redbirds are 2-1 vs teams in top 125. MVC home favorites are 17-11 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 12-10.

Alabama won ugly 51-50 game vs Clemson LY in Greenville, SC (Clemson’s gym was being redone); Crimson Tide is 4-1 at home this year, with only loss by 5 to Dayton. Mama is forcing turnovers 23.2% of time (#24); they’re playing tempo #301. First true road game for 7-2 Clemson team that lost two of three on neutral floor at Disney tourney last month. Tigers force turnovers 24.2% of time (#9); they’re also #10 at protecting the ball. ACC road favorites are 5-5 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 13-17, 2-1 at home.

Gonzaga is 10-0 with six top 100 wins, four neutral court wins; this is their first true road game. Bulldogs were up 49-33 at half in 86-79 home win over Tennessee LY; they outscored Vols 24-11 on foul line. Tennessee was 10-21 on arc. Vols won five of last six games, with one loss by hoop at North Carolina; they’re #334 experience team playing #76 tempo and subbing a lot. Tennessee is 4-0 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13-12-4-2 points. WCC favorites are 5-6 away from home; SEC underdogs are 13-17, 2-1 at home.

Michigan State is 7-4 vs schedule #42; their losses are all to top 20 teams. Spartans are 5-0 vs teams outside top 100, with three wins by 11 or less points. Star freshman Bridges missed last three games (ankle). Izzo’s teams are not usually this young (#318 experience). Northeastern lost 78-58 at home to Michigan State LY; Huskies won at UConn in its only top 100 game this season. All five Northeastern losses are by 6 or less points, but three of them were vs teams outside top 200. CAA road underdogs are 14-9 vs spread; Big 14 home favorites are 25-30.

Western Michigan had player arrested for murder since they last played; kid didn’t start, but still. Broncos have #339 eFG% defense; they’re 2-6 vs D-I teams, losing by 11-5 points in only two top 100 games. Washington is #343 experience team that has talent but can’t defend; they lost last four games, allowing 91 pts/game. Huskies are shooting 41.8% on arc (#11); they’re playing #7 pace, are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with wins by 16-34-39 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 25-23 vs spread; MAC road underdogs are 15-16.

St John’s has already lost at home to Delaware State/LIU; there is no evidence Mullin is turning program around. Red Storm are #348 experience team that is 5-6 vs schedule #292- they play pace #49. St John’s lost by 6-11 points to Minnesota/Mich State of Big 14. Penn State is #333 experience team; they won only true road game by 6 at George Washington. Lions have #291 eFG%, shooting only 44.3% inside arc- they’re starting three frosh and a sophomore. Big East home favorites are 17-15 vs spread; Big 14 road underdogs are 9-5.

Oregon State has injury issues, is struggling at 3-8, losing last eight D-I games; Beavers’ last three losses are all by 4 or less points- they turn ball over 24.9% of time (#344). OSU is #329 in experience, playing schedule #318- they beat Portland in OT in last meeting two years ago. Pilots are 6-3, winning last two games by total of four points; Portland is 5-0 vs teams outside top 100, with three double figure wins- they won only true road game by 13 at San Jose State. WCC favorites are 5-6 away from home; Pac-12 home underdogs are 1-3.

Northern Kentucky is 7-3 vs schedule #304 in its 5th year of D-I ball; Norse lost by 21 couple years ago at Eastern Washington. NKU won its last four games this year, is 6-1 against teams outside top 200. Eagles come east on a 7-game win streak, with four of last five D-I wins in OT, two in double OT. EWU’s last six D-I wins are all by 6 or less points; they’re #2 team on foul line, but in bottom 10 at forcing turnovers. Both of EWU’s losses are top top 80 teams. Horizon home favorites are 6-13 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 27-26.

NC State has been replenished by arrival of freshman big man Yurtseven, who can shoot/pass but is very young; six of their nine guys who played 10:00+ in last game are freshman/sophs, so they’re talented but need experience. Fairfield hasn’t played in 12 days, hasn’t played anyone ranked above #116; Stags are 3-2 on road but turn ball over 22.1% of time and are stepping way up in class here. MAAC road underdogs are 14-13 vs spread; ACC home favorites are 33-21. Wolfpack’s bench had hardly been playing, but they’re lot deeper starting this week.

Montana State lost 74-57 to South Dakota 11 days ago in Vermillion, in brickfest where teams combined to go 9-40 on arc. Coyotes led 32-24 at half. State lost its last four games, three by 8+ points; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss by 5 to Milwaukee. South Dakota lost 85-82 in Portland Friday; three Coyotes played 28:00+ in game where Portland was 12-22 on arc. Coyotes are 3-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with only loss by hoop at UMKC. Summit League road underdogs are 20-22 vs spread; Big Sky home favorites are 3-9.

Omaha was 25-27 on foul line in 83-73 win at Fullerton Nov 30; titans were just 11-24 on line in game Omaha led 37-23 at half. Mavericks won four of last five games including a win at Iowa; they’re turning ball over 20.3% of time, shooting just 32.3% on arc, but 8 of their first 10 D-I games were on road. Fullerton is 4-6 vs schedule #332; Titans are 0-3 in true road games, with losses by 16-9-7 points- they lost by 16-9-10 points in only top 200 games. Summit League home favorites are 6-9 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 10-24.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends To Watch - December
By Marc Lawrence

And down the stretch they come.

With December upon us, the 2016 NFL season heads in to the final quarter of the season and with it our final take on monthly teams trends, compliments of the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine.

Please note that all trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Enjoy the holidays… and the team trends.

HOME TEAMS

Good: Seattle is the best December home club over the years with sterling 35-17 ATS record. In their quest to gain no lower than a No.2 seed in the NFC, the Seahawks will face Carolina (12/4) and division rivals Los Angeles (12/15) and Arizona (12/24).

Keep an eye on (Good): NFC champion Carolina is having awful season, but they have performed well in December with 17-7 ATS record and has San Diego (12/11) and Atlanta (12/24) visiting Charlotte.

Cincinnati (38-23 ATS) and Houston (17-10 ATS) have been quite profitable in the final month of the season. Bengals get two shots at improving record, against Philadelphia (12/4) and Pittsburgh (12/18), with the Bengals having back to back contests with Jacksonville (12/18) and Cincy (12/24).

Despite often facing big numbers at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has pounded out 32-19 ATS mark. The Packers will welcome three visitors to the frozen tundra in the Texans (12/4), Seattle (12/11) and Minnesota (12/24).

Lastly, Pittsburgh is 38-23 ATS at Heinz Field and says "hello" the Giants on first Sunday of the month and Baltimore on Christmas.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Cleveland is running out of chances to win a game and is only 13-22 ATS at home and has in-state rival Cincinnati (12/11) and San Diego (12/24) in town in search of a victory.

As good as New Orleans has been in the Dome during the Drew Brees era, they close the season at only 22-35 ATS in the bayou. They will see the Lions (12/4) and Tampa Bay (12/4) not too far from Bourbon Street.

Miami and Oakland have shown great improvement in 2016 and to make the playoffs will have to win this month and do better against the spread. The Dolphins are 24-39 ATS and have only Arizona in south Florida on the 11th. The Raiders are 21-36 ATS and will face Buffalo (12/4) and Indianapolis 20 days later.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina is 27-17 ATS as visitors, but given the kind of year they are having, not sure they will better record in the Great Northwest (12/4) or in D.C. on a Monday night (12/19).

Bad: Chicago has been pitiful in the road whites in the final month of the season at a sickly 16-35 ATS, but catch a break with only one assignment in the Motor City (12/11).

Keep an eye on (Bad): Dallas is having a great campaign and is a noted away squad, just not on December. The Cowboys will be out to change 23-37 ATS mark with trips to Minnesota (12/1) and in New York/Jersey against the Giants (12/11).

Tampa Bay is in the midst of improving and the next step is stepping up on the road in the final month and bettering 19-36 ATS record. The Bucs will have a trio of rugged adventures to San Diego (12/4), Dallas (12/18) and six days later in the Big Easy.

Bay Area brethren Oakland and San Francisco have been dreadful when leaving the home late in the season. The Raiders are 19-34 ATS and will be in Kansas City on the 8th and San Diego on 18th. The 49ers will play all over the place, in Chi-Town (12/4), Atlanta (12/18) and L.A. on Christmas Eve.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is sharp 28-18 ATS when handing out points this month and will be favored the rest of the way with possible exception in Green Bay (12/11).

Bad: Who is the least trusted favorite in December, none other than the Dolphins, who have only left coal in stockings with 22-48 ATS mark. Right now, only a game with the Cardinals on the 11th is a certainty to see them as favorites.

Keep an eye on (Bad): With no Tony Romo, Dallas is almost guaranteed to be a better favorite, as he contributed big time to 21-35 ATS record. Home games versus the Buccaneers and Lions will see the Boys as favorites.

If viewing Oakland's name for bad things is getting boring, just wait… there will be more. Da Raiders are 16-27 ATS when doling out the digits they will against the Bills (12/4) and Colts (12/24) and possibly in San Diego (12/18).

UNDERDOGS

Good: The Panthers have been a high quality moneymaking 30-14 ATS when receiving points. Ron Rivera's crew will have a couple chances to improve that record in Seattle (12/4) and at Washington (12/19).

Seattle is tremendous 40-20 ATS, but lone chance is in Packerland on the 11th and that open for discussion.

Keep an eye on (Good): Big Blue is 34-22 ATS as December dogs and might be twice in the Keystone State (Steelers for sure on the 4th, Philly iffy on the 24th).
With Philadelphia floundering, can they better 27-17 ATS mark as underdogs? We will find out, as they will catch points at Baltimore (12/18) and hard to say if they will in division home games versus the Redskins and Giants, on either side of Ravens contest.

Pittsburgh is 18-12 ATS as a pooch, but only possibilities of making record stronger is at Buffalo and Cincinnati in the middle contests of the month. Both are wait and see.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Who is unthinkable 21-40 ATS as underdogs, Da Bears! And after playing the Niners on the first Sunday, they will have chances the rest of season to do even worse.

The Raiders and Rams have something in common besides being vagabond franchises, they stink against the spread as underdogs. Oakland is 23-43 ATS and will be doggone dogs in K.C. on Thursday the 8th and maybe 10 days later where the Chargers still play. L.A. (22-38 ATS) will spend the first portion of the month receiving points before San Fran pays a visit to La-La Land.

DIVISION

Good: Carolina has torn up division foes to the tune of 28-13 ATS and will have second shot at the Falcons (12/24).

Keep an eye on (Good): Hugely disappointing season Arizona and bettering 29-19 ATS record when taking on Seattle on Christmas Eve only matters if they win the game.

Seattle posts a 30-17 ATS divisional mark and has a pair of non-Sunday affairs with the Rams (12/15) and Redbirds (12/24). One step behind is New England at 30-18 ATS and they will have one more with Gang Green (12/24).

Bad: Miami will have to overcome itself in the AFC East, with 18-36 ATS record and will have to travel to the Jets and Bills in Weeks 15 and 16.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The battling Browns are 10-18 ATS in division action and realistically, their lone remaining shot at a 'W' will be home game against the Bengals (12/11) coming of a bye.

The Rams are hardly rambunctious at 20-30 ATS and will be in Coffee Town (12/15) and the Coliseum vs. the 49ers in search of wins and covers.

Thought we would close this out the right way, with Oakland, who is 21-33 ATS in December division battles and as mentioned previously, several times, have the Chiefs and Chargers in Weeks 14 and 15.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Vikings' Peterson expects to play Sunday
By The Sports Xchange

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson plans to return from his knee injury and play against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
Peterson revealed his intentions during a Friday interview with Dash Radio.
Peterson suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee against the Green Bay Packers on Sept. 18. He underwent surgery four days later and was placed on injured reserve.
The Vikings would have to make a roster move to activate Peterson and hadn't done so as of mid-Friday afternoon. Coach Mike Zimmer said earlier Friday that no decision had been made.
Regardless, Peterson insists he is playing.

--Atlanta Falcons star receiver Julio Jones will miss his second consecutive game with a sprained toe, coach Dan Quinn said.
Jones leads the NFL with 1,253 receiving yards but was unable to practice this week.
The injury was originally described as turf toe prior to Jones missing last Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. It was reclassified as a sprain earlier this week.
The Falcons expect to have receiver Mohamed Sanu (groin) back after a one-game absence.

--Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not practiced all week and is officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears, but he is still expected to play this weekend, according to multiple media reports.
An injury to Rodgers right calf kept him out of practice Wednesday and Thursday, and the team does not practice Friday. It leaves only Saturday's walk-through as an opportunity for Rodgers to get some work with the offense.
Packers running back James Starks remained in the concussion protocol Friday. He was involved in an automobile accident on Monday.

--Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff is in the NFL concussion protocol after taking a hard hit to the helmet from cornerback Richard Sherman in Thursday night's 24-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Goff, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick, ran 15 yards up the sideline to the Seahawks 2-yard line and did not get out of bounds before Sherman delivered the hit with about nine minutes remaining in the game.

--Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green was listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The 28-year-old Green returned to practice this week but was a limited participant. Green is likely to miss his fourth straight game since suffering a Grade 2 right hamstring tear on the second play from scrimmage in a Week 11 loss against the Buffalo Bills on Nov. 20.

--The Baltimore Ravens ruled out cornerback Jimmy Smith for Sunday's home game against the Philadelphia Eagles due to an ankle injury.
Smith missed his third consecutive practice on Friday. He suffered a right ankle sprain while making a tackle near the goal line late in the first quarter of Monday night's 30-23 loss at the New England Patriots.

--Philadelphia Eagles running back/punt returner Darren Sproles was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens due to a concussion.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson told reporters that Sproles, who suffered the concussion on a punt return in last Sunday's loss to the Washington Redskins, will miss the Week 15 road game.

--The San Diego Chargers officially ruled running back Melvin Gordon out of Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders due to hip and knee injuries.
Gordon suffered the injuries in last Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers and didn't practice all week.
Undrafted rookie Kenneth Farrow will start in place of Gordon.

--Chicago Bears receiver Marquess Wilson fractured his left foot for the third time in a span of 12 1/2 months and will miss the rest of the season, coach John Fox announced.
Wilson suffered the latest injury in a practice earlier this week and is expected to be placed on injured reserve prior to Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury report

CLEVELAND BROWNS at BUFFALO BILLS
CLEVELAND BROWNS
--Questionable: LB Dominique Alexander (abdomen, groin)
BUFFALO BILLS
--Out: LB Lerentee McCray (concussion)
--Doubtful: T Cordy Glenn (back)
--Questionable: LB Zach Brown (ankle), TE Charles Clay (knee), WR Sammy Watkins (foot), DT Kyle Williams (back)

DETROIT LIONS at NEW YORK GIANTS
DETROIT LIONS
--Out: C Travis Swanson (concussion)
--Doubtful: RB Theo Riddick (wrist)
--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (shoulder), TE Eric Ebron (knee), LB DeAndre Levy (knee), CB Darius Slay (hamstring), RB Zach Zenner (concussion)
NEW YORK GIANTS
--Out: DE Jason Pierre-Paul (core muscle)
--Questionable: S Nat Berhe (concussion), LB Keenan Robinson (shoulder), RB Shane Vereen (concussion)

GREEN BAY PACKERS at CHICAGO BEARS
GREEN BAY PACKERS
--Doubtful: LB Nick Perry (hand), RB James Starks (concussion)
--Questionable: WR Randall Cobb (ankle), LB Kyler Fackrell (hamstring), LB Blake Martinez (knee), RB Christine Michael (illness), CB Damarious Randall (groin), RB Aaron Ripkowski (back), QB Aaron Rodgers (calf), C J.C. Tretter (knee)
CHICAGO BEARS
--Out: WR Eddie Royal (toe), WR Marquess Wilson (groin, foot)
--Questionable: CB Johnthan Banks (ankle), CB Bryce Callahan (knee), DT Eddie Goldman (ankle)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
--Out: T Denzelle Good (concussion), DT Arthur Jones (groin), WR Donte Moncrief (hamstring), T Joe Reitz (back)
--Questionable: TE Dwayne Allen (hip), WR Phillip Dorsett (groin), S T.J. Green (ankle), DT Zach Kerr (concussion)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
--Out: G Brandon Fusco (concussion), S Harrison Smith (ankle), WR Laquon Treadwell (ankle), CB Trae Waynes (concussion)
--Questionable: CB Mackensie Alexander (abdomen), RB Matt Asiata (ankle), C Joe Berger (concussion)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at HOUSTON TEXANS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
--Out: WR Allen Hurns (hamstring), G Chris Reed (toe), RB Denard Robinson (ankle)
--Questionable: WR Shane Wynn (hamstring)
HOUSTON TEXANS
--Out: G Jeff Allen (concussion), TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion), S Don Jones (illness), LB John Simon (chest)
--Questionable: RB Tyler Ervin (ribs), CB Johnathan Joseph (ribs), LB Whitney Mercilus (back)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at DENVER BRONCOS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Out: WR Danny Amendola (ankle)
--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle, shoulder), CB Malcolm Butler (hip), LB Dont'a Hightower (knee), S Jordan Richards (knee), LB Elandon Roberts (hamstring), CB Eric Rowe (hamstring), WR Matt Slater (foot)
DENVER BRONCOS
--Out: LS Casey Kreiter (calf), LB Brandon Marshall (hamstring)
--Questionable: LB Todd Davis (rib cage)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
--Out: LB Stephone Anthony (knee), CB Delvin Breaux (shoulder)
--Questionable: S Shiloh Keo (hamstring), RB Daniel Lasco (hamstring, knee), LB Craig Robertson (shoulder), C Max Unger (foot)
ARIZONA CARDINALS
--Out: T D.J. Humphries (concussion)
--Questionable: WR John Brown (illness), CB Marcus Cooper (back), TE Jermaine Gresham (knee)

OAKLAND RAIDERS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
OAKLAND RAIDERS
--Out: LB Shilique Calhoun (knee), S Karl Joseph (toe), DT Stacy McGee (ankle)
--Questionable: WR Amari Cooper (shoulder), WR Michael Crabtree (finger), DE Darius Latham (ankle), G Kelechi Osemele (knee), LB Perry Riley (hamstring), LB Malcolm Smith (hamstring)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
--Out: RB Melvin Gordon (hip, knee)
--Doubtful: CB Craig Mager (shoulder)
--Questionable: WR Jeremy Butler (ankle), G Orlando Franklin (rib)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at BALTIMORE RAVENS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
--Out: RB Darren Sproles (concussion), T Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee)
--Questionable: G Allen Barbre (hamstring), TE Brent Celek (stinger), WR Dorial Green-Beckham (abdomen), LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (illness), WR Jordan Matthews (ankle)
BALTIMORE RAVENS
--Out: CB Jimmy Smith (ankle)
--Questionable: TE Crockett Gillmore (thigh), LB Anthony Levine (toe), T Alex Lewis (ankle), CB Jerraud Powers (concussion)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Out: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), S Shamarko Thomas (concussion)
CINCINNATI BENGALS
--Doubtful: DE Wallace Gilberry (calf), WR A.J. Green (hamstring)
--Questionable: LS Clark Harris (groin), S Derron Smith (thigh), TE C.J. Uzomah (calf), WR James Wright (knee)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ATLANTA FALCONS
SAN FRANCISCO
--Out: WR Torrey Smith (concussion)
--Doubtful: T Joe Staley (hamstring)
ATLANTA FALCONS
--Out: DE Adrian Clayborn (knee), CB Jalen Collins (knee), WR Julio Jones (toe), S Robenson Therezie (ankle), WR Nick Williams (concussion)

TENNESSEE TITANS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
TENNESSEE TITANS
--Out: LB Sean Spence (ankle)
--Questionable: LB David Bass (groin), DT Jurrell Casey (foot), DT Karl Klug (Achilles)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
--Out: CB Phillip Gaines (knee), LB Derrick Johnson (Achilles)
--Questionable: LB Justin Houston (illness, knee), DE Kendall Reyes (wrist)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at DALLAS COWBOYS on Sunday night
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
--Out: T Demar Dotson (concussion)
--Questionable: S Chris Conte (chest), LB Lavonte David (hamstring), DT Gerald McCoy (foot), DT Sealver Siliga (calf), TE Luke Stocker (ankle)
DALLAS COWBOYS
--Out: CB Morris Claiborne (groin), T Chaz Green (back), DE Demarcus Lawrence (back)
--Questionable: WR Dez Bryant (back), S Barry Church (forearm), DE Jack Crawford (foot), LS L.P. Ladouceur (knee), G Ronald Leary (back), LB Sean Lee (knee), CB Orlando Scandrick (foot, not injury related), T Tyron Smith (back, knee), DT Cedric Thornton (ankle), S J.J. Wilcox (thigh).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: "Lines like these are usually fishy for a reason"
By PATRICK EVERSON

Not surprisingly, Week 15 of the NFL season features several games that will have playoff implications. We check in with John Lester, senior lines manager, on the opening lines for four key matchups.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4)

New York has proven to be the kryptonite that kills Dallas. The Giants (9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) beat the Cowboys for the second time this year, winning a defensive slugfest 10-7 as a 3.5-point home underdog. New York has now won seven of its last eight SU, going 6-2 ATS in that stretch to put itself firmly in playoff position.

Of Detroit’s 13 games this season, all but one have been decided by 7 points or less, and the Lions have won eight of those one-score games. That was the case again Sunday, when Detroit (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) edged Chicago 20-17 on quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 7-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.

Stafford played through a right-hand injury, reportedly a dislocated thumb and torn ligaments that will require him to wear a glove on his throwing hand against New York.

“The injury to Stafford is certainly something to consider when handicapping this contest, as he was clearly affected by it (Sunday),” Lester said early Monday. “A pair of quality defenses should equate to this total heading south, and it has already moved from 44 to 42.5.”

More under action dropped that number to 41 Monday afternoon. On the flip side, the line is heading north, having gone to Giants -5.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, no line

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver is closing in on must-win situations if it hopes to reach the playoffs and defend that title. The Broncos (8-5 SU and ATS) were held scoreless into the fourth quarter at Tennessee on Sunday, and a late comeback attempt fizzled on a lost fumble in a 13-10 loss as a 2-point underdog.

New England (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) still has work to do in Week 14, playing host to Baltimore in the Monday night game. The Patriots would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC if the playoffs opened today.

“We’ll wait until ‘Monday Night Football’ is over before hanging a line, but if there aren’t any surprises, the Patriots will be 3.5 to 4-point road favorites,” Lester said. “The Denver defense should be pretty amped to perform well against a top-flight offense. But can Trevor Siemian and the Denver offense keep up?”

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Oakland will look to bounce back from its first loss since mid-October. The Raiders (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) were dealt a 21-13 setback at Kansas City as a 3.5-point pup in the Thursday nighter, dropping them into a tie for first in the AFC West with the Chiefs, who hold the tiebreaker because they won both meetings with Oakland this year.

Much like Detroit, San Diego has been in a lot of one-score games this year, but on the wrong end of the result. The Chargers were on the wrong end again Sunday, but not in a one-score game. San Diego (5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS) fell behind 23-0 in a 28-16 loss at Carolina catching 1 point.

“The public is going to be all over Oakland in this matchup, laying just a field goal against a 5-8 Chargers squad,” Lester said. “But lines like these are usually fishy for a reason, and the early money has actually been on the home ‘dog.”

That brought the number down to 2.5 this afternoon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Dallas has only lost to one team the entire 2016 season. Twice. The Cowboys (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) fell to the New York Giants 20-19 in their season opener as a 1-point favorite, then ripped off 11 consecutive wins. On Sunday night, that streak ended with a 10-7 loss in a defensive struggle at New York, where the Pokes were 3.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, a month ago, this game looked like any other late-season contest for Tampa Bay in recent years – meaningless. However, the Buccaneers ripped off five consecutive SU and ATS wins and are tied with Atlanta atop the NFC South. Tampa (8-5 SU and ATS) slogged past New Orleans 16-11 Sunday laying 2 points at home.

“Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest teams at the wagering window, and the bettors have certainly taken notice,” Lester said. “Sharps played against them last week, but the squares didn’t hesitate to take them against the Saints. That won’t happen here, as the Cowboys are the most-backed team in the league, and the fact that they’re off a loss won’t help us garner ‘dog action.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 15
By Marcus DiNitto

Here are the opening point spreads for Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – the South Point’s Chris Andrews and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s Ed Salmons.

Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night. Early line moves and differences among sports books are also noted.

Sunday, Dec. 18

Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)

CG posted Dallas -8 and the Westgate hung -8.5 before the Cowboys lost at the Giants on Sunday night. The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and bookmakers continue to make bettors lay big numbers to back them.

Meanwhile, both oddsmakers we spoke to are impressed with Tampa’s D, which held the Saints and Seahawks without a touchdown over the last three weeks.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4.5)

Detroit has won five in row and eight of their last nine, but Salmons isn’t sold.

“I don’t know how they have the record they have,” Salmons said. “They really could have lost that game at home (to the Bears on Sunday). They’re an average team.”

The Lions, though, did have some takers for next week’s game at the Giants at the Westgate’s original number.

“We put that line up 5.5 and they bet us down to 4.5, which we knew they would,” Salmons said. “We just wanted to see how high we could go.”

Matthew Stafford’s status bears watching. He tore ligaments in the middle finger of his throwing hand Sunday and continued to play but with a glove on his hand.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

CG Technology opened Baltimore -5.5 but soon joined the rest of the market at -6.

Green Bay Packers (-5) at Chicago Bears

Left for dead a few weeks ago, the Packers have won three straight games.

Green Bay was bet from -4.5 to -5 Sunday night at the Westgate for next week’s trip to Chicago. The Packers have owned the Bears in recent seasons, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings and covering the spread in 14 of the last 18.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

The Westgate bounced between Minnesota -4 and -3.5 Sunday night for this inter-conference battle of mediocrity.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10)

Cleveland has covered only two spreads all season but catches double digits against a Bills team that figures to be motivationally challenged next week.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

The Westgate and William Hill opened Kansas City -6 but moved to -5.5 during Sunday night action. Both of those numbers were available in Las Vegas of this writing.

Andrews was impressed that the Titans beat Denver on Sunday despite an anemic offensive performance, but he doubts they’re ready to compete with the AFC’s best.

“If they can win without (Marcus Mariota) playing great football, that’s a pretty good plus for them,” Andrews said. “I’m not sure they can make a lot of noise in the playoffs, but they’re a good, young, coming team.”

Andrews, though, puts Kansas City near the top of the conference: “I really like Kansas City a lot. I’ve been talking about them since the beginning of the year. I think they’re a real Super Bowl contender.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5)

The Westgate opened Houston -5, William Hill went -6, and the two books met in the middle at -5.5.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

William Hill opened Arizona -3 and moved to -2.5, while CG Technology went from 2.5 to -3 (-105) on Sunday night for this matchup of what have become NFC also-rans.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)

CG and the Westgate both moved from 11.5 to 12.5, while multiple other books were dealing 13 on Sunday night.

New England Patriots (-3/-120) at Denver Broncos

This AFC showdown may shape up as the classic sharps vs. public at the bet window. In games of the year and advanced wagering at the Westgate, there’s been more wiseguy money on Denver than on New England, but Salmons said, “We know next week we’re gonna need Denver big. The public will bet New England.”

Andrews is concerned about the Broncos, who have lost three of five.

“I think Denver’s got some real problems,” Andrews said. “(Trevor) Siemian didn’t look very good (in Sunday’s loss at Tennessee), and they haven’t been able to run the ball all year. Suddenly, they’re a very desperate team.”

But, he added, “New England’s another team that may not be at their peak all of a sudden.”

Oakland Raiders (-3 even) at San Diego Chargers

As an indication of the way these AFC West rivals are trending, the Raiders were 3.5-point favorites when they beat San Diego in Oakland on October 9. Oakland won 34-31, but failed to cover the spread.

Said Andrews, “Oakland is probably due to come to earth a little bit. They’ve been playing really well, but they’re still a young team that has a few holes. They’ve become a public darling and I’m not sure they’re quite that good yet.”

CG Tech was dealing Oakland -2.5 Sunday night.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3/-120) at Cincinnati Bengals

Similar to the situation discussed just above, Pitt goes from a field-goal favorite at home against Cincy in Week 2 to a field-goal favorite on the road against the division rival. In fact, William Hill was dealing Pitt -3.5 on Sunday.

Monday, Dec. 19

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-4)

The Washington -3.5 that CG hung Sunday lasted less than 20 minutes, and the book moved to -4. There was mix of 4s and 4.5s Sunday night for the Week 15 Monday nighter.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Here are some Week 15 early lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on Thursday night's game (Rams-Seahawks; thus I will touch on Jeff Fisher's firing Monday in that story), Sunday's marquee matchup (most likely Lions-Giants) or the Monday night game (Panthers-Redskins).

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10, 42.5): If you read my Friday NFL news update story, I touched on coaches likely to be fired and wrote about a prop on whether Rex Ryan would be back in Buffalo next year. Hopefully you took my advice on no he wouldn't because the Bills lost at home to Pittsburgh to fall to 6-7, and they are going to continue the NFL's longest playoff drought. There were multiple reports that the team might fire Ryan as early as Monday but now apparently he will finish out the season before getting canned. Ryan also wouldn't say whether he would continue starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. It sounds like just about everyone in the franchise has soured on Taylor even though the Bills gave Taylor close to $8 million in new money back in August as part of a contract that includes a five-year option. If Taylor is on the roster on March 11, it would trigger $31 million in new guaranteed money. There's no way Taylor's getting that money. Management also wants to see what fourth-round rookie Cardale Jones has. Remember, he was thought of as a very promising prospect when he replaced an injured J.T. Barrett and led Ohio State to the first College Football Playoff title two years ago. Jones probably would have been late first- or second-round pick had he declared then. He didn't, struggled in 2015 and lost his job to Barrett. I'm sure the 0-13 Browns would be thrilled to see Jones in there. The pick: Bills if it's Taylor and "under" regardless.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-13, 51.5): This has the highest opening total of any game and the biggest spread of Sunday's schedule. I'll admit that I jumped off the Falcons in Week 14 when I heard that superstar Julio Jones and No. 2 receiver Mohamed Sanu weren't going to play. Jones was the surprise scratch as he's dealing with turf toe, but everything I read was that he would suit up. I actually thought the Rams had a good shot at home to upset the Falcons. And now I feel stupid for ever backing the Rams -- good riddance Fisher! -- as Atlanta rolled 42-14 to stay tied atop the NFC South with Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan threw for three scores and the Falcons' defense forced five turnovers by that sorry Rams offense. I do wonder if this might be a trap game, however, for Atlanta. The 49ers obviously are terrible, blowing a 17-3 home lead against the equally awful Jets and losing 23-17 in OT, San Francisco's 12th straight loss. But I could see the Falcons looking ahead to division games at Carolina and home to New Orleans to close the regular season. The pick: I'm going to wait and hope this rises to about two TDs and then I am taking the Niners.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 46): This game was "flexed" into the Sunday night slot a couple of weeks ago. So, are you worried yet Cowboys fans? Their offense has looked pretty inept in back-to-back weeks, and Twitter is all abuzz with fans wanting the team to bench rookie Dak Prescott for Tony Romo. Prescott has not been good of late. He threw for just 139 yards in a close win at Minnesota in Week 13 and then was an ugly 17-for-37 for 165 yards with the first multiple-interception game of his career in Sunday's night's 10-7 loss at the Giants. That defeat prevented Dallas from clinching the NFC East or a first-round playoff bye, although it could do both here. Owner Jerry Jones and Coach Jason Garrett said pretty adamantly that Prescott remains the starter. He might have a short leash against a Bucs defense that has played like one of the NFL's best in Tampa Bay's five-game winning streak. That unit picked off Drew Brees three times in Sunday's 16-11 win. It's the first time in Brees' career he had back-to-back three-INT games. The pick: I'll wait on this to see if I can get 7.5 and then take Tampa. Under regardless.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10, 41.5)

Browns' defensive breakdowns vs. Bills' red-zone wrecking crew

There is more than pride on the line for the Cleveland Browns this weekend in Buffalo - there's also the little matter of not joining the 0-16 club. But the Browns will be in tough to earn that elusive first victory against a stout Bills defense that is expected to overwhelm the Cleveland offensive line all game long. Yet, that isn't even the biggest mismatch of the day - that honor is bestowed upon the Bills' red-zone proficiency, which should make short work of Cleveland's abysmal defense.

Led by dynamic quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the Bills have been sensational once inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in red-zone touchdown rate (67.5 percent), behind only the Tennessee Titans. The Bills are especially dangerous at home, boasting the league's best red-zone TD success rate at a whopping 81.3 percent. Once Taylor and the rest of the offense gets deep into opposition territory, it's seven points more often than not.

Don't expect the Browns to offer much resistance in that department. Teams have scored touchdowns on better than 67 percent of their visits inside the Cleveland 20, the third-worst rate in the league. Cleveland has actually been slightly better in this regard on the road (66.7) than at home (68), but frankly, both rates are terrible. Taylor should have no trouble marching downfield against the winless Browns - and once Buffalo is close to the end zone, it'll find a way to get in.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Mike Gillislee

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 44)

Patriots' increased rushing reliance vs. Broncos' run D struggles

You won't find many teams that give New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady fits - but the Denver Broncos certainly fit the bill. The Broncos are the only team against whom Brady has a losing record in his career (6-9), and he'll be in tough to improve on that mark as he faces his nemeses in chilly Denver. But while Brady faces an uphill battle through the air, the Patriots have a distinct advantage on the ground - and they won't hesitate to use it.

New England has been a much more run-focused team than in years past, even despite Brady's dominance since returning from a season-opening four-game suspension. The Patriots run the ball on 44 percent of their offensive plays, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That balanced attack has reaped significant rewards for running back LeGarrette Blount, who leads the league with 14 rushing scores - a figure that contributes greatly to the Patriots scoring 36.6 percent of their TDs on the ground.

If there's one area of the Denver defense that is exploitable, it's the run prevention unit. The Broncos have surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards in the league as opponents look to avoid Denver's elite pass defense. The result: Half of the offensive TDs allowed by the Broncos have come on the ground, behind only the Bills. New England is going to run it a ton, and Denver's odds of winning come down to whether it can do anything about it.

Daily fantasy watch: RB LeGarrette Blount

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (+3, 49.5)

Raiders' dominant defensive ends vs. Chargers' suspect O-line

Playoff fever has returned to Oakland, as the Raiders remain in the hunt for the division title despite last week's loss to the rival Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland offense has been able to keep its team in the majority of games, but the defense - or at least certain elements of it - have been just as impressive. And as the Chargers are about to find out this weekend, two members of the Oakland D in particular have been menaces for opposing quarterbacks.

Any discussion of the vastly improved Raiders defense begins and ends with LE Khalil Mack, whose Pro Football Focus grade of 92.9 is the best at his position despite being lower than his scores the previous two years. He represents a matchup nightmare for just about anyone he matches up against - and he has help on the right side in RE Bruce Irvin, who boasts a PFF grade of 82.7. The two have combined for 16 sacks through the first 13 games.

The message to the San Diego offensive line: Good luck. Seriously. Four of the Chargers' five starting O-lineman boast grades south of 54, with only C Matt Slauson (81.7) considered anywhere near average. Mack will likely line up against RT Joe Barksdale (42.7), while Irwin will see LT King Dunlap (53.5). That considerable advantage in Oakland's favor could mean serious trouble for San Diego QB Philip Rivers, and by extension, the entire Chargers' offense.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Philip Rivers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 15 NFL lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)

It took the Bucs a while to figure things out this season, but Tampa Bay is on its best roll in years, and with five straight victories is making life very uncomfortable for Atlanta in the NFC South. Both are 8-5, the teams have split their two games and the final three weeks of the season will be spent examining tie-breaking procedures.

Tampa Bay’s road won’t be easy – after Sunday they play at New Orleans and then home vs. Carolina. But the Bucs earned valuable street cred with their Weeks 11-12 wins over Kansas City and Seattle, and now are legit players in the NFC playoff mix. Bettors are responding, too, feasting on the original line of 7.5 and betting it down a half-point early in the week.

Game to wait on

Cleveland at Buffalo (-10)

The players love him and the media loves him, but in the NFL you can lose only so much, so it looks like Rex Ryan’s coaching career is about to fade to black. A SU loss to the Browns would probably be his final game as a head coach and he pretty much needs to run the table (and somewhat convincingly) to salvage a 9-7 season and perhaps another season on the sidelines. But things don’t look good for either Ryan or QB Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is due a huge guaranteed contract if he stays with the Bills into mid-March, so it’s very possible they cut ties with both the HC and the QB.

As for the Browns and their trip to nowhere, bettors don’t even like them against a struggling Bills team, so the line has already bumped up a half-point from its 9.5 opening, and could go further.

Total to watch

Detroit at New York Giants (41.5)

Just when the Lions start to figure things out, they now have to deal with an injured quarterback. Matthew Stafford has emerged as one of the best QBs in the league and has led the 9-4 Lions to the top of the NFC North and a probable playoff spot. If things break right, they could get a first-round bye. But the injury (the Lions aren’t saying what it is) is raising concerns. He’ll play Sunday, but you can be sure that the Giants (9-4; they also need a victory to keep the heat on Dallas) will attempt to make the pocket very uncomfortble.

Will Detroit try to relieve the pressure by running the ball, killing clock? One other note – both the Giants (3-10-0) and Lions (4-9) are among the best under teams in the league.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 15

We've hit the homestretch of the NFL campaign and teams everywhere are doing what they can to stay in the playoff hunt. There are plenty of teams still alive in both conferences and that makes for some very interesting games (and point spreads) this week. We've got plenty of teams getting 4 points or more on the line and there's no question that at least one or two of them are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset.

Underdogs That Qualify

Detroit Lions (+4); ML (+170)
Philadelphia Eagles (+6); ML (+220)
Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+260)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+170)
Cleveland Browns (+10); ML (+420)
Tennessee Titans (+6); ML (+205)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6); ML (+220)
San Francisco 49ers (+14); ML (+700)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7); ML (+255)
Carolina Panthers (+6); ML (+220)

With 10 teams making the list, I'll start by omitting the Bears, Browns, and 49ers here as only die-hard fans of those clubs will ever seriously consider a ML bet on those sides this week. All three of those organizations know that their 2016 seasons are all but done and with the level of effort and focus in question, trying to take a shot with the ML isn't likely to get your bankroll very far.

Nearly that same list are teams like the Eagles, Jaguars, and Panthers, but while those respective teams are out of the playoff picture, playing spoiler against their opponents (Baltimore, Houston, and Washington respectively) is something to consider. Carolina is on MNF against the Redskins and after such a disappointing season for the defending NFC Champions, the Panthers could use that primetime showcase game to have one of their better outings of the season and spoil the Redskins season at the same time.

Jacksonville is in a similar spot as they are on the road in Houston, and they'd love to get one over on a division rival and snap their eight-game losing streak in the process. At +220 for both Jacksonville and Carolina, both sides are worth serious consideration on the ML this week.

Of the remaining teams, all are either in the lead in their division or a game back and desperately need a win. Indianapolis (+4) likely has to go 3-0 SU to finish the year just to have a shot at getting into the tournament, but going into Minnesota is no easy task, especially when the Vikings are clinging to their own playoff hopes as well. Andrew Luck and the Colts are more than capable of getting it done though as the loser of this game will likely see their hopes for 2016 go down with the L. Getting better than +170 on the Colts would be nice, but even at that price they are still worthy of a deeper look.

Detroit is trying to fend off the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North and their game against the Giants this week is another one where both sides would love to avoid the L. However, the Lions have been playing with fire all year long with almost all of their victories coming after trailing in the 4th quarter and eventually they'll get burned. With Detroit having Dallas and Green Bay on tap to finish out the year, they are still a team that should be in the “wait and see” category this week. That leaves the Titans and the Bucs who both have tough road games against opponents with double digit wins.

Tennessee is in Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that I still don't believe in as they've been living off turnovers and mistakes made by opponents. Like the Lions run with 4th quarter comebacks, eventually a run like that wears out and Tennessee definitely has the running game that can take advantage of the Chiefs ranking 27th in the league vs the run.

Tampa Bay is in Dallas to take on a Cowboys team remembering how to deal with a loss, and fading a team after a loss that snapped a six-plus game winning streak is a strategy I like to employ. It's funny how even after 11 straight wins, the Cowboys and their fans are wondering when they will see Tony Romo again after another defeat and that organization just loves to create drama. But the Giants did expose ways how to beat this Dallas side and Tampa Bay is built in a similar fashion and playing tremendous football themselves in winning five straight. Tampa's defense has only allowed more than 17 points once during that span and they've played some very good teams and/or offenses during that time as well. Holding the Saints to 11 points last week was prefaced by giving up 5 to Seattle and 17 to Kansas City, so there is quite a bit of value on Tampa at +255.

Of the 10 teams on this list, putting ML wagers on Indianapolis (+170), Jacksonville (+220), Carolina (+220), Tennessee (+205), and Tampa Bay (+255) should see you go at least 2-3 SU and wrangle up some profits.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David

Week 14 Recap

The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 mark last weekend as only three teams were able to post 30 or more points up on the scoreboard. Perhaps the biggest surprise from last weekend is that a couple games dealing with the elements went ‘over’ while both indoor games leaned to the low side. Through 14 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge (104-102-1) on the season.

Be on the Lookout!

-- Including the Rams-Seahawks matchup this past Thursday, we’ve seen 10 totals this season close in the thirties. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in those games and as of Friday afternoon, it looks like there will be three more contests nearing that territory.

-- Ironically, the Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight games yet none of their totals have ever been in the thirties.

-- The Vikings are staring at their highest total of the season (45 ½) as the Colts visit on Sunday. Minnesota has scored 25, 31 and 25 in its first three matchups against the AFC South this season, all ‘over’ winners. Meanwhile, Indy has seen the ‘over’ cash in all three games versus the NFC North. Not sure what will come of it but running back Adrian Peterson is expected

-- High total in the desert (50) this Sunday between the Cardinals and Saints. Be aware that Arizona is 6-1 to the ‘under’ at home and New Orleans is 4-2 to the ‘under’ on the road.

-- New England visits Denver in Week 15 and it’s been held to 18, 24 and 16 points in its last three trips to Mile High.

-- Two of the best ‘under’ teams meet in New York this weekend as the Giants (10-3) and Lions (9-4) square off.

Divisional Matchups

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last five meetings, which includes the Steelers 24-16 over the Bengals in Week 2 at home. That total was 48 ½ and the rematch is set for 44. Despite being known for its offense, Pittsburgh has been a great ‘under’ bet (9-4) and the defense has picked up the pace the last four games (12.5 PPG) albeit against much weaker foes. Cincinnati’s defense (16.6 PPG) has been much better at home and it’s ranked second in interceptions (15) and sixth in sacks (36).

Green Bay at Chicago: This total opened 42 ½ and has dropped to 39 ½ as of Friday with super-low temperatures expected in “The Windy City” on Sunday. The first meeting between the pair went ‘under’ (46 ½) the number as Green Bay earned a 26-10 win at home. The Packers defense has finally got on track and only allowed 36 points the last three weeks. Chicago, despite playing with backups, has been competitive under head coach John Fox and tight divisional games usually lean to ‘under’ tickets.

Jacksonville at Houston: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and the first meeting between the pair on Nov. 13 barely went to the high side (42) as Houston dropped Jacksonville 24-21 on the road. The Texans and Jaguars sort of mirror one another. They both have sound defensive units and quarterbacks that look terrible more often than not. Houston (-7) and Jacksonville (-17) are two of the worst turnover-prone teams and that could be both good and bad for either the ‘over’ or the ‘under.’ The Texans defense (17.2 PPG) at home has been tough for all opponents and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 4-2 at NRG Stadium.

Oakland at San Diego: These teams played to a shootout on Oct. 9 in Oakland as the Raiders captured a 34-31 win over the Chargers and the ‘over’ (50 ½) connected. Round two has a lower number (49 ½) but I expect the public to push it back up come Sunday afternoon. The Raiders (10-3) and Chargers (8-4-1) have both been great ‘over’ bets this season and they’re style dictates high-scoring games. A couple factors that could make me hesitant backing the ‘over’ is the health of Raiders QB Derrick Carr (finger) and his top two wide receivers (Cooper, Crabtree) have been limited in practice this week. For San Diego, it’s not expected to have running back Melvin Gordon (hip) and the back-and-forth travel has taken a serious toll on the offense (19.3 PPG) the last three weeks.

Coast to Coast

Bettors saw this popular total trend go 1-1 last week and these results could’ve gone 2-0 to the high or low sides. The Arizona-Miami ‘over’ connected with the help of a late touchdown and two-point conversion while the Carolina-San Diego matchup ran out of gas in the second-half and stayed ‘under’ the number.

Through 18 games, the ‘over’ holds a 14-4 (78%) record when teams from the West Coast are playing in the Eastern Time Zone. If you track back to the 2015 campaign, the ‘over’ is 25-9 (74%) the last two seasons.

Week 15 has one situation on tap and to no surprise, the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout.

San Francisco at Atlanta: The Falcons are tied for the best ‘over’ record (11-2) this season and that includes an impressive 6-0 mark at home. Atlanta’s scoring offense (32.9 PPG) is ranked first in the league and the numbers (33.5 PPG) have been a touch better at the Georgia Dome. That unit will be facing the worst scoring defense in San Francisco (30.2 PPG) and its numbers have been worse on the road (34.7 PPG). Even though the 49ers attack isn’t spectacular, the Falcons defense (376.3 YPG) is ranked 28th in total yards and they don’t have a bunch of takeaways (18). San Francisco does enter this game on a strong ‘under’ run (4-1 last 5) but it has seen the ‘over’ cash in its first three games on the East Coast this season and it allowed 46, 45 and 31 points in those games.

The last game featuring a West Coast team playing in the Eastern Time Zone takes place next Saturday when San Diego visits Cleveland.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime matchups last week and it could’ve been 3-0 if the Baltimore-New England result on Monday didn’t close with a late surge. Through 14 weeks and this past Thursday’s outcome between Seattle and Los Angeles, the ‘under’ has gone 23-20-1 in night games this season. We only have one Thursday night matchup left and bettors will be starting at a six-game ‘under’ run In Week 16 when the Giants and Eagles meet.

Tampa Bay at Dallas: The Buccaneers, winners in five straight, have been lights out defensively (12.8 PPG) during their current win streak. The once potent Dallas offense has only managed to score 24 points the last two weeks but that came against quality defensive units in the Vikings and Giants. Are the Bucs on that level? They certainly belong in the conversation and it’s hard to make to ignore the fact that tied for the most takeaways (25) in the league. Since losing its home opener, Dallas is averaging 29.2 PPG in its last five and that’s led to a 3-2 ‘over’ mark.

Carolina at Washington: Weather permitting, this game has all the makings for a classic Monday Night Football shootout. This total (50 ½) is high but Washington has posted the same ‘over’ numbers as Atlanta, 11-2 overall and 6-0 at home. The Redskins have a knack for moving the chains and the defense (24.4 PPG) hasn’t been able to play consistently for 60 minutes. Carolina’s defense (25.9 PPG) has been worse and it’s been embarrassed (32.5 PPG) on the road, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 in its away games. Carolina is a longshot to make the playoffs but from a total perspective, this quote from QB Cam Newton after last week's win makes you believe they'll finish strong. He said, "Offensively, not to rain on the win, we have to put up points - points as in getting touchdowns."

Fearless Predictions

Back on the winning track ($190) and could’ve been a sweep if the offensive unit of the Rams showed up a tad earlier. The deficit is down 2 ½ bucks ($260) with three weeks left in the regular season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Indianapolis-Minnesota 45 ½

Best Under: Green Bay-Chicago 39 ½

Best Team Total: Under 23 ½ Kansas City

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 48 ½ Green Bay-Chicago
Over 41 ½ San Francisco-Atlanta
Over 41 ½ Carolina-Washington

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
By Micah Roberts

The Steelers-Bengals game got flexed out of its originally scheduled Sunday night time slot in Week 15 NFL action, but bettors in Las Vegas are finding it the most attractive game of the week through the bet windows.

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have taken 97 percent of its cash on the game and 90 percent of the tickets written on the Steelers to make it their most one-sided game of the week. CG Technology's seven Las Vegas sports books don't have as high of a disparity, but the risk is piling up quick.

"The biggest sweat we have right now is on the Steelers at Cincinnati," said CG's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "We opened the Steelers 3-flat and we were been pushed up (the ladder) to -3 -130 and we're at -3.5 -105 right now."

Pittsburgh has won and covered its last four games and are finally living up to the high rating they started with at the beginning of the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati -- after an awful start -- have won and covered its last two. When the two teams met in Week 2 at Hines Field, the Steelers won 24-16 as 3-point favorites. From then to now shows a massive rating change with most of it coming from the Bengals dropping down the charts.

Cold weather is going to be a factor with several of the midwest and northern sites this week. Cincinnati has a 20 percent chance of snow at 23 degrees with 13 mph winds. However, CG books have been bet up from 44 to 45.

The coldest site on Sunday will be at Soldier Field in Chicago at zero degrees with winds at 15 mph, which gives the Packers now three straight freezing games. Green Bay has looked good while winning three straight, but sharp money thinks they're inflated this week.

"They (wise guys) went the other way taking the Bears at +6.5 and +6, and they've also taken the Bears on the money-line (+250) as well. This is our next biggest risk after the Steelers game, but we've taken in probably only 18 percent of the overall action we'll see this weekend," said Simbal, who currently has the Packers -5.5 and the Bears money-line at +215.

William Hill books haven't seen that same type of sharp action and their ticket counts have the Packers written at an 84 percent clip. Green Bay won 26-10 in the Week 7 meeting, which was sandwiched in between five bad looking losses. The Bears have been very competitive lately -- playing above their low rating -- covering the number in their last four.

Another cold weather site has some lopsided Buffalo action where the big question is when the Browns when will finally win. It's also the first time in two months where the Browns aren't getting extreme value to the number of close to 3-points from the true rating.

"We've had just over $10,000 in bets on the Bills and only $350 on the Browns. That's it," Simbal said. "However, it's the complete opposite with the money-line where we have $4,000 on the Browns (+450) and nothing on the Bills."

It could be that the wise-guys are simply giving up on the Browns who have gone 0-7 ATS the last seven weeks. They don't figure to be any better with 20 mph winds on Sunday. The total is sitting at 42 and the Browns have stayed Under the total in their last five contributing an average of just under 10 ppg.

Here's some other sharp plays that Simbal has been seeing early on this week:

"We've seen action on the Saints (+3) at Arizona and while we were heavy early on with New England (-3) action, we evened things out a bit with one large bet on the Broncos."

"We've also seen more action on Tampa Bay taking +8 and +7.5, and they also like the Bucs (+280) money-line."

"We're seeing Monday night shape up sooner than usual with who we need as they bet the Redskins heavy laying -3.5, -4.5 up to -6 (-115). We moved quickly through -5 and and took a few bets at -5.5."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds: Week 15 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

Before I dive into some Week 15 news and special props, make sure you check the weather on any games you plan to wager on that are being played outdoors in the Midwest or Northeast USA this weekend. It's going to be really ugly in some places -- it could be the coldest home Chicago Bears game in history with a potential high of zero on Sunday. I am leaning "under" on just about every game in the affected areas.

I was one of those who complained when the Vikings decided to make their new stadium a dome as I'm of the belief that teams in the NFC North and AFC North should all play outdoors. Old-school football and all. But as a fan, I wouldn't be caught dead in zero-degree temperatures unless it was a playoff game. I can't even imagine playing in that.

Just two teams have clinched a playoff spot heading into the weekend: Dallas and NFC West champion Seattle, which won that division in beating the sad-sack Rams on Thursday night. Only Detroit and the Giants can clinch a playoff spot in the NFC this weekend. Both would need to win and get help to do so, but they play each other and I went into that in my preview here at Doc's.

In the AFC, the Patriots win the AFC East with a win or a Dolphins loss on Saturday night at the Jets. New England gets a first-round bye with a victory OR Dolphins loss and Steelers loss OR a Dolphins loss and Chiefs win. There are multiple scenarios where the Chiefs clinch a playoff berth, but the easiest is to simply beat visiting Tennessee. Ditto for Oakland as it's in by winning in San Diego.

Lastly, I mentioned earlier this week that I expected a next Rams head coach prop when Jeff Fisher was fired on Monday. Sportsbooks list Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as the +200 favorite followed by Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan at +300. I am flabbergasted the site has Jim Harbaugh at just +500. That's simply not happening. He should be +10000 at least. The two interesting names otherwise are Jon Gruden (+700) and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll (+1600), who already said he wasn't interested in going back to L.A. I think Gruden's a possibility but don't really love anyone else on that list.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 15.

Saints at Cardinals (-3, 50.5): Not a whole lot of interest in this one, with Arizona being eliminated from the playoffs with Seattle's win Thursday. Drew Brees has had back-to-back games without a TD pass for the first time in seven years and also back-to-back with three picks for the first time ever. So sportsbooks ask whether his TD passes (-175) or interceptions (+135) will be higher this week. It was rainy in Tampa last week when Brees struggled, but the week before he was home in his dome. Obviously no weather concerns here. New Orleans visited Arizona in Week 1 last year and Brees threw for 355 yards, one TD and one pick in a 31-19 loss. These Cardinals are really banged up in the secondary with safety Tyrann Mathieu maybe playing for the first time since Nov. 27 and fellow safety Tyvon Branch put on IR this week. I'd go TDs here.

Packers at Bears (+5.5, 39): Chicago is the biggest home dog of Week 15 and the Packers are taking a huge lean currently. That could change, however, as Aaron Rodgers hasn't practiced through Thursday with a calf injury suffered last week to go on top of a hamstring problem he has been dealing with. There's no question Rodgers will play, but he probably will be stationary. And good luck throwing the football in that weather. Running back James Starks suffered an apparent concussion in a car accident on Monday, so he's not looking good. Meanwhile, Chicago gets back its top receiver, Alshon Jeffery, from a four-game suspension. He and QB Matt Barkley have thus barely seen each other in game conditions. Sportsbooks have a prop on the Bears' starting QB Week 1 next year: Barkley (+150), Jay Cutler (+200), Brian Hoyer (+500) or any other QB (+150). I think Barkley is back, but as a No. 2. I'd go with any other QB as the Bears will either draft one early or trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, who is from Eastern Illinois just like Chicago GM Ryan Pace is.

Steelers at Bengals (+3, 44): I give Cincinnati little shot of the upset here, even at home, unless A.J. Green returns from his torn hamstring and is close to 100 percent. There's actually a shot Green could play, which is surprising. Not sure I'd risk him with the Bengals' playoff hopes on life support. Green practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and Thursday and Coach Marvin Lewis has a history of only playing guys who practice in full at least once. So Friday will be key. Green has 66 catches for 964 yards and four touchdowns in 10 games this season.

Raiders at Chargers (+3, 49.5): This line has moved slightly and the total dropped a bit likely because of the news that San Diego running back Melvin Gordon is expected out after suffering hip and knee injuries very early last week -- thus killing fantasy football players everywhere. Gordon was a bust as a rookie in 2015 but has 997 rushing yards and 419 receiving yards in 2016, ranks fifth in yards from scrimmage and has 12 TDs. Gordon rushed for 69 yards and had an 18-yard TD catch in the Bolts' 34-31 loss in Oakland earlier this season. Rookie Kenneth Farrow should start in Gordon's place. He had 16 carries for 55 yards and six catches for 23 yards last week at Carolina. Oakland is fairly healthy having played last Thursday, although rookie starting safety Karl Joseph missed that one with a toe injury and he's in doubt here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: NFL Saturday games are going to the dogs
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL is a merciless marketing machine that given the chance, would eat you and everyone you care about. And we love it for that.

Take this month’s schedule as an example.

Save for the NBA showcase, most professional and college sports take a knee on December 25, allowing players to be home for the holiday. But when Christmas falls on a Sunday (a registered trademark of the NFL) in Week 16, Jesus’ birthday bash is sharing the spotlight with two huge NFL games.

Saturdays in December are another example of the NFL’s ruthless branding. The NFL plays nice with the NCAA during the fall, leaving Saturdays alone. But once the college kids wrap their regular slate and bowl season begins, the NFL swoops in and snuggles up to Saturday like its boyfriend just dumped it (“He didn’t appreciate you… You’re too good for him anyway… Wanna come over and watch a movie?”).

We’re not complaining, especially when Saturday NFL games give us a spicy betting trend such as this: Since 2007, betting underdogs are 17-7-1 ATS (12-13 SU) in regular season Saturday games – covering at a 71 percent clip.

This weekend, in the first Saturday game of the 2016 schedule, the New York Jets are pegged as underdogs at home, hosting the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East bout. Books opened Gang Green as high as +3 but that has since been bet down to +2.5 with early sharp money taking the J-E-T-S.

Should this trend continue in Week 15, things will get very interesting on Christmas Eve when the bulk of the Week 16 action takes place – on a Saturday – with a dozen games on the board.

That’s also Fantasy Football finals for you lucky ones, which means the ultimate conflict of interest: spend a peaceful Xmas Eve with loved ones or become consumed with destroying your friends and co-workers in your office fantasy league?

Damn you NFL.

Lordy, lordy! Watch out for 40

Last week, we touched on a stunning NFL betting trend involving teams coming off victories in which they scored 40 or more points (H/T Brandon Shively).

Heading into Week 14, those qualifying teams were 12-19 ATS (10-20 SU) in the following game since October 4, 2015 –Week 4 of last year – covering at 39 percent. That record included a 2-6 ATS mark and a stunning 0-8 SU count since Week 7 of this season, triggering red flashing warning lights around the Seattle Seahawks (at Green Bay) and Indianapolis Colts (hosting Houston).

Well, we hate to say “We told you so” (that’s not true, we f#cking love it). The Seahawks and Colts both lost SU and ATS, making NFL team off a win in which they scored 40-plus 12-21 ATS in the following game since Week 4 of the 2015 season and a crazy 2-8 ATS and 0-10 SU since Week 7.

Those results put all eyes on the Atlanta Falcons, who squashed the L.A. Rams 42-14 in Week 14, and their Sunday date with the San Francisco 49ers, who are getting two touchdowns in the Georgia Dome.

If any team is going to put this red-hot trend to the test, it’s the Niners. They're as high as +720 on the moneyline. Just putting that out there...

How to really handicap the MVP odds

This year’s NFL MVP race is much more exciting than previous campaigns, when it was a one or two-horse contest. But, here we are with three weeks left to go in the regular season, and the MVP picture is about as clear as a frozen windshield on your morning commute.

As a Cowboys fan, I’m thrilled to see rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott as the MVP frontrunner (+250). But as a sports bettor with a nose for value, I wouldn’t bet Zeke with Jerry Jones’ pocket change (which I’m sure is more than my annual salary). Nor would I toss any money down on Tom Brady (+260) – the second overall favorite to win Most Valuable Player.

The NFL has a big ole PR pickle getting stuffed down its stocking this December, with Elliott under investigation for domestic assault and Brady being the last person Roger Goodell wants to hand the MVP trophy over to after all the ugliness and suspensions of Deflategate.

Yes, this award is voted on by the writers. But don't think for a second the NFL front office doesn't have a say. If you’re betting the MVP prop odds, play the politics.

Matthew Stafford, who was as big as 125/1, can be had for around +400 after carrying Detroit to the top of the NFC North. Raiders young QB Derek Carr opened at 75/1 and is currently as high as +900. And Falcons gunslinger Matt Ryan, who opened at 90/1, is about +450 to win MVP. Even Aaron Rodgers is paying +800, which could be a smart bet if you think he can will the Packers to the playoffs on one leg down the stretch.

Sharps like…

Chicago. Yeah, that’s right. The Bears are the sharp team of the week, moving from +7 to +5.5. However, this line move has little to do with the Bears' talents and more to do with the weather forecast in Chicago.

“It’s supposed to be like 60 mph winds and 12 degrees in Chicago,” says Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology. “That’s the reason they’re taking the dog here.”

Biggest move…

Money on the Redskins has moved them from -3.5 to -6 for their home date with the Panthers on Monday Night Football.

“(The Panthers) are pretty much touchdown underdogs against the Redskins, who are an above-average team but nothing special, and no one is taking them. No one is betting Carolina at all,” says Simbal.

Biggest sweat…

Books will be sweating out the AFC North grudge match between the Steelers and Bengals, needing a big effort from Cincinnati. The Bengals are field goal pups at home.

“They’re all over Pittsburgh right now,” says Simbal. “Like, 25 times more money on Pittsburgh right now.”

Banker game…

New England at Denver could go a long way in deciding who wins Week 15: books or bettors. According to Simbal, this late afternoon revenge spot for the Patriots is growing in liability as more and more money comes in on the road favorite (New England -3).

“If we can get the Broncos over the Pats, I think we’ll be in pretty good shape for the day,” says Simbal. “Right now, they’re betting New England – not a ton. But there will be more coming in on New England.”

Injury to watch

Kansas City Chiefs, linebackers

The Chiefs lost one of the top defensive players in the league, linebacker Derrick Johnson, and could be without another as they prepare for the Titans Sunday. Fellow linebacker Justin Houston sat out practice early in the week with “illness” and then missed Thursday’s workouts with a knee injury – not a good sign for the injury-prone pass rusher.

On top of that, veteran LB Tamba Hali is walking around on aging knees, leaving KC with a very brittle linebacker corps heading into a matchup with a thunderous Tennessee rushing attack that plows for 4.7 yards per carry (third in the NFL). The Chiefs allow 122.9 rushing yards per game – third worst in the league.

We know how to pick’em

Oddsmakers were pretty definitive with the Week 15 spreads, with no game opening lower than 2.5. So we default to the shortest spread on the board, Dolphins at Jets +2.5 Saturday night.

As we do with this spot each week, if you’re on the fence about this standalone primetime game, don’t give yourself a headache handicapping all the stats and matchups. Just pick the team with the hottest cheerleaders.

Sunday’s menu

Another week, another primetime game for my beloved Cowboys. The one thing I do like about Dallas playing in the night cap is that I have time during the day to cook something really good.

Seeing that it’s as cold as a Belichick press conference out there, some stick-to-your-ribs comfort food may be in order. I can feel the warmth now.

Easy (money) like Sunday morning

I’m treating this like a trip to the dentist: let’s cut the crap – and my crappy 2-8 record – and get it over with.

New England is going mile high to play the Broncos, out for a little revenge after losing to Denver in the AFC Championship last season.

The Patriots were in a similar position two years ago, facing a Denver team that bounced them from the playoffs the previous season, losing 26-16 to the Broncos in the 2013-14 AFC title game. Brady & Co. rocked Denver 43-21 and covered as 3-point home dogs in Week 9.

And if you go back to the 2013 season, New England slapped Baltimore upside the head with a 41-7 road win as 1.5-point chalk in Week 16, avenging a postseason loss to the Ravens in the AFC Championship the previous season.

Pick: New England -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 15

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 15

1) Pittsburgh -3 (603)
2) Tampa Bay +6.5 (593)
3) Oakland -3 (501)
4) Baltimore -5.5 (456)
5) Detroit +4 (433)

SuperContest Week 15 Matchups & Odds
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Los Angeles (+16) 88 Seatle (-16) 46
Miami (-2.5) 229 N.Y. Jets (+2.5) 199
Tampa Bay (+6.5) 593 Dallas (-6.5) 250
Detroit (+4) 433 N.Y. Giants (-4) 238
Philadelphia (+5.5) 121 Baltimore (-5.5) 456
Green Bay (-6.5) 382 Chicago (+6.5) 376
Indianapolis (+4.5) 230 Minnesota (-4.5) 390
Cleveland (+10) 131 Buffalo (-10) 235
Tennessee (+5) 362 Kansas City (-5) 335
Jacksonville (+6) 179 Houston (-6) 257
New Orleans (+2.5) 102 Arizona (-2.5) 351
San Francisco (+13.5) 72 Atlanta (-13.5) 265
New England (-3.5) 430 Denver (+3.5) 360
Oakland (-3) 501 San Diego (+3) 244
Pittsburgh (-3) 603 Cincinnati (+3) 215
Carolina (+6.5) 336 Washington (-6.5) 121



Weekly and Overall Consensus Records
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 7-18 28%
6 1-3-1 8-21-1 28%
7 3-2 11-23-1 32%
8 3-2 14-25-1 35%
9 2-3 16-28-1 36%
10 0-5 16-33-1 32%
11 3-2 19-35-1 35%
12 5-0 24-35-1 40%
13 3-2 27-37-1 42%
14 4-0-1 31-37-2 46%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
By Vince Akins

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The Titans are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.05 ppg) since Dec 26, 2010 and off a win in which they never trailed.

-- The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-8.35 ppg) since Oct 16, 2011 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they had at least 400 yards total offense.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Colts are 10-0 ATS (10.25 ppg) since Dec 04, 2011 off a loss where they had less than 26 minutes of possession time.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bills are 0-11 ATS (-15.68 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 off a game as a home dog where they scored less than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS (-10.00 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 when Carson Palmer threw at least two interceptions last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Colts are 7-0 OU (17.07 ppg) since Jan 04, 2014 after a home game where TY Hilton had at least seven receptions.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-11 OU (-12.59 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 after a game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Giants are 12-0-1 OU (12.35 ppg) since Nov 12, 2006 at home after a game that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-10 OU off a win as a home favorite in which they committed two-plus turnovers.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-12 ATS as a home favorite off a SU and ATS loss.

NFL ATS SYSTEM:

-- Teams playing their final regular season home game which have won at least six of their first seven home games are 93-73-1 ATS. Active on NY Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick Six - Week 15
By Kevin Rogers

Week 14 Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 38-42 SU, 36-45-1 ATS

Lions at Giants (-4, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Detroit
Record: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Lions keep continuing to show they are not a fluke, coming off their fifth consecutive victory last Sunday against the Bears, 20-17. Although Detroit didn’t cover as 7 ½-point home favorites, quarterback Matthew Stafford overcame a finger injury to score the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Lions cashed the UNDER for the seventh straight game. Detroit’s defense has been fantastic during this stretch, giving up 20 points or less in each of the past seen contests, while seeking its third consecutive road win after starting the season with 1-3 record overall.

New York
Record: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 10-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

The Giants are the only team in the league to beat the Cowboys and New York accomplished that feat for the second time this season in last Sunday’s 10-7 triumph. New York didn’t compile many yards from an offensive standpoint (260 yards), but the Giants took the lead for good thanks to an Eli Manning 61-yard touchdown connection with Odell Beckham, Jr. late in the third quarter. The Giants improved to 6-1 at Met Life Stadium, while riding a five-game streak to the UNDER overall. New York is facing Detroit for the first time since the 2014 season opener when the Lions blasted the Giants, 35-14 at Ford Field.

Best Bet: New York -4

Colts at Vikings (-4, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Indianapolis
Record: 6-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Colts were dealt a huge blow in their chances to win the AFC South title following last Sunday’s 22-17 home defeat to the Texans as 6 ½-point favorites. Indianapolis has not lost consecutive games since the first two weeks of the season as the Colts are 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five contests off a defeat. The Colts have performed well on the highway recently by winning three straight road games, while scoring at least 31 points in each of those victories.

Minnesota
Record: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

The Vikings haven’t had much luck this season as both quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Adrian Peterson were injured early on. Bridgewater won’t return this season, but Peterson will come back following an 11-game absence due to a right knee injury. Peterson is a welcome sign for a Minnesota team that has won only twice in the last eight games since a 5-0 start. The Vikings knocked off the Jaguars last Sunday, 25-16 as three-point road favorites as Sam Bradford threw for 292 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota has been a solid team to back at U.S. Bank Stadium this season by going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.

Best Bet: Indianapolis +4

Titans at Chiefs (-4 ½, 42 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee
Record: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS, 9-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

The Titans are right in the mix of the AFC South race as Tennessee faces Houston in Week 17 at home. However, Tennessee needs to take care of business in Kansas City on Sunday on the heels off a huge victory over another AFC West foe, Denver last week. The Titans knocked off the Broncos, 13-10, while limiting Denver to 18 yards rushing on nine carries. Tennessee has held its own away from Nissan Stadium with a 3-3 road record, including outright underdog triumphs at Detroit and Miami.

Kansas City
Record: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 17/2

The Chiefs braved the frigid temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium last Thursday night to pull off the season sweep of the rival Raiders, 21-13 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Kansas City holds the tiebreaker advantage over Oakland atop the AFC West as each team enters Sunday’s action at 10-3. The Chiefs improved to 5-1 at Arrowhead with the win, but Kansas City has cashed only twice in the role of a home favorite this season. Kansas City looks to avenge a 26-10 setback to Tennessee suffered in the 2014 season opener as the Titans outgained the Chiefs, 405-245.

Best Bet: Tennessee +4 ½

Steelers (-3, 45) at Bengals – 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh
Record: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Steelers knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs last season in the Wild Card round, as Pittsburgh seeks its third straight postseason appearance. Mike Tomlin’s squad has won four consecutive games, including each of the past three away from Heinz Field. The Steelers cashed in each of those victories, as Pittsburgh is fresh off a 27-20 triumph at Buffalo as running back Le’Veon Bell rushed for a career-high 236 yards and three touchdowns. Pittsburgh has won six of the past seven matchups with Cincinnati, including a 24-16 victory at Heinz Field in Week 2 as three-point favorites.

Cincinnati
Record: 5-7-1 SU, 5-8 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

It may be too little, too late for the defending AFC North champion Bengals to qualify for the playoffs. However, Cincinnati is looking to finish strong, coming off back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Cleveland the last two weeks. The Bengals’ defense is stepping up of late by allowing 19 points or less in each of the past four games, while Cincinnati is currently on a 4-1 run to the UNDER. Cincinnati is listed as a home underdog with Andy Dalton starting at quarterback for the first time since Week 16 of the 2014 season in a 37-28 victory over Denver.

Best Bet: Cincinnati +3

Patriots (-3, 44) at Broncos – 4:25 PM EST

New England
Record: 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 13/5

The Patriots are eyeing the top seed in the AFC after finishing with the second seed last season. New England fell short of consecutive Super Bowl appearances after losing at Denver in the AFC Championship, 20-18 as three-point favorites. The Pats have dropped their past three visits to Sports Authority Field as they put their 6-0 road record on the line on Sunday. Bill Belichick’s club has covered in five of six away contests this season, while facing their third different Denver quarterback since last October (Trevor Siemian, Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler).

Denver
Record: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Broncos are back at home in a must-win spot as the defending champions face a treacherous three-game stretch to close the season. Following New England, Denver takes on division rival Kansas City on the road before hosting Oakland in the season finale. The Broncos are coming off a three-point loss at Tennessee last week, but Denver has dropped back-to-back games only once this season. Since Gary Kubiak took over as head coach last season, the Broncos have produced a 9-2 ATS mark in the underdog role, including a 3-0 SU/ATS ledger as a home ‘dog.

Best Bet: Denver +3

Raiders (-3, 49) at Chargers – 4:25 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 10-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Raiders are 10-1 this season against any team not from Kansas City as Oakland suffered its second loss to its division rivals last Thursday. Oakland is back on the road with a trip to San Diego, going for the sweep of the Chargers. The last time these teams met up at the Black Hole in early October, the Raiders rallied for a 34-31 triumph as both Derek Carr and Philip Rivers eclipsed the 320-yard mark. Oakland is listed as a road favorite for only the second time this season, as the Raiders are 4-3 ATS this season when laying points.

San Diego
Record: 5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS, 8-4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Chargers have played to plenty of exciting finishes this season, but are running out steam down the stretch following interconference losses to the Buccaneers and Panthers. San Diego has fallen apart in each of its last two home defeats to Tampa Bay and Miami by allowing 45 second half points in those setbacks. The Chargers have lost three straight meetings with the Raiders, but the underdog has cashed in nine of the past 10 matchups, including San Diego’s cover as 3 ½-point ‘dogs in Week 5 at Oakland.

Best Bet: Oakland -3