Sunday 12/14/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions 1:00 ET

Bonus Play Detroit Lions -7.5

This NFC North division battle features towel tossing Minnesota, who despite winning their last two games, is just 6-7 SU with no playoff hopes. Vikings are facing a Detroit team who has won two consecutive games, and is trailing Green Bay by a single game for the division lead. At first glance, it would appear this is a live, division, avenging underdog. Detroit won the earlier meeting, 17-3 on October 12th. In that game, Detroit used an overland edge of 100-69 along with a +3 net turnover margin for the win. The Lions’ recent surge has seen them follow up their 34-17 victory on Thanksgiving Day over Chicago, with an identical score of 34-17 last week against Tampa Bay. In that contest, they outrushed the Bucs 113-26, outgained them 407-233, and had a +2 net turnover margin. That makes it 3-0 SU ATS for the Lions on their home field. That type of streak often results in an underperformance for an NFL team playing their third consecutive home game. Meanwhile, with last week’s OT victory against the Jets, the Vikings have covered three straight games (all on their home field). Last week’s win (and cover) vs the Jets came on a pick 6 in OT to cover the number by ½ point. Cannot dismiss the fact that the Jets outrushed the Vikings 168-114. Fundamentally this is a strong matchup for the Lions. With the weak Vikings’ OL leading an offense that averages just 20 PPG and 309 YPG, look for the Lions’ top ranked defense, which allows just 17 PPG, 63/3.0 overland, and only 5.1 defensive yards per play, to rule matters the entire afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Shively

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Bonus Play Game #31/ 312 Houston Texans/Indianapolis Colts OVER the Total

I like this game to go OVER the total. This is a huge game for both teams and I think we will see plenty of offense in this game that will go back and forth and we should see a final score in the 34-27 range. For Houston, they are now the top 7-6 team in the AFC and a win today can boost their playoff hopes tremendously. For the Colts, they can lock up the division with a win today and I expect for Andrew Luck to have a big game at home on the turf leading his #1 passing offense.

Indy, like I said has the #1 offense in the NFL, and they put up 33 points on the Texans in the first match-up this season. They have the #1 passing offense and this is a good match-up considering that the Texans are ranked 28th vs. the pass. Indy has now put up 25+ points vs. the Texans in the last 5 match-ups and the way the offense is clicking this year, I expect to see 30+ in this game. Luck is coming off of his 3rd worst game of his career vs. the Browns with a 45% completion percentage. I look for him to bounce back in this game at home and put up some quick scores in the 1st quarter.

Houston has scored 23+ points in their last 4 road games. They have been competitive on the road this year and I believe they can hang around in this one and trade touchdown's with the Colts. Fitzpatrick is a veteran QB that has been playing good since being inserted back in the starting lineup after Mallet got injured as he has not turned the ball over the last 2 games.

This game is being played in the dome which is another advantage we have for this game at this time of the year. I have every reason to believe that both offenses will be clicking and this will be a back and forth game and one that I see going OVER by 10+ points.

The OVER is 6-1 in the Texans last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 9-3 in the Texans last 12 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 11-4 in the Colts last 15 games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in the Colts last 6 games after allowing less than 250 yards in their previous game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Adams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Bonus Play Carolina Panthers

Odds makers bumped this line down a couple of points after news broke that Derek Anderson would be starting in place of Cam Newton after his car accident. My personal numbers don’t indicate that the line should have been adjusted that much, if at all. Anderson is not a downgrade from Newton. In fact, he already beat the Bucs earlier this year. If we’re talking about the Cam Newton of last year, or previous years, that’s a different story. The fact is Newton just hasn’t been productive at all this season. Anderson is a veteran quarterback who knows the system and is fully capable of leading this offense.

Carolina is coming off of a 41-10 drubbing of the Saints in New Orleans. There’s a “Buy” sign on them right now with them still having a very realistic shot at winning the division. The NFC South is so bad that at 4-8-1, the Panthers are only a half game behind the Falcons and Saints.

Tampa Bay always seems to find a way to lose games. They dropped their 3rd straight last Sunday to the Lions, losing 34-17. They are abysmal on offensive, scoring more than 17 points only once in their last 8 games. The Bucs have some talent, they just aren’t utilizing it properly right now. Look for Carolina to ride the momentum of last week’s victory into this game at home. Take the Panthers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ari Atari

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Bonus Play New England Patriots

NEW ENGLAND at home is in a great spot against Miami who are stuck in a tough situation. The Pats need one win to clinch the AFC East and they have their sights on the bye in the first round of the playoffs.

30.8 points per game puts the Pats amongst the deadliest and most dangerous teams especially at home. New England is 5-1 ATS and 4-1 ATS at home. The home team is 5-0 ATS in this matchup. The Dolphins had a defense worth their weight in healthy bodies. Now they're shredded and thin with a weak secondary. The Pats can feast. Buy a half point down to -7 for added security.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears

Free Pick = New Orleans Saints -3

The Saints got the kick in the teeth that I believe will turn their season around. I see them coming back strong in this one and beginning a streak of wins to end the season. Saints rebound in a big way and win on MNF.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocky Atkinson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

FREE NFL play Sunday Carolina Panthers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ari Atari

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Bonus Play New England Patriots

NEW ENGLAND at home is in a great spot against Miami who are stuck in a tough situation. The Pats need one win to clinch the AFC East and they have their sights on the bye in the first round of the playoffs.

30.8 points per game puts the Pats amongst the deadliest and most dangerous teams especially at home. New England is 5-1 ATS and 4-1 ATS at home. The home team is 5-0 ATS in this matchup. The Dolphins had a defense worth their weight in healthy bodies. Now they're shredded and thin with a weak secondary. The Pats can feast. Buy a half point down to -7 for added security.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick Parsons

Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills

Bonus Play on the Over

The Green Bay Packers have never won a game in Buffalo.

The 10-3 Packers are tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the best record in the NFC. They picked up their fifth win in a row with Monday night's 43-37 shootout win over the visiting Atlanta Falcons. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes. He went 24-for-36 passing with 327 yards‚ giving him 16 touchdown passes and zero interceptions with a 127.1 passer rating over Green Bay's five-game win streak. Jordy Nelson caught eight passes for 146 yards with two touchdowns versus the Falcons‚ while Eddie Lacy rushed for a score and also caught a TD pass while totaling 106 yards from scrimmage.

The Bills are looking to rebound from last Sunday's 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos. The Bills are 7-6 on the season. Kyle Orton threw for 355 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for the Bills. He completed 38 of 57 pass attempts while also running for a one-yard touchdown with 55 seconds to play. Sammy Watkins caught seven passes for 127 yards and lost a fumble near midfield on Buffalo's opening drive as the Bills were denied winning eight games in a season for the first time since 2004 (9-7).

Green Bay's offense‚ which leads the NFL with 423 points. The Bills are fifth in the league with 311.9 yards allowed per game and fourth with just 18.5 points yielded per game.

Offense has been a little harder to come by for the Bills‚ who sit 19th at 21.6 points and 22nd with 327.2 yards per game.

I am playing the Over in this game. Nobody has been able to slow down the Packers offense and I don’t see Buffalo doing it in this game. Atlanta showed that you can move the ball on the Packers and the Bills have a player in Sammie Watkins should be able to make some plays on the Packers defense. I see a lot of points in this game and the game going over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

Bonus Play Minnesota Vikings

I'm recommending a play on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points on Sunday. The problem with laying big points with the Lions is that you can't count on a lot of scoring. Detroit is averaging just 20.4 ppg on the season, despite scoring 68 points combined the last two weeks. Of course, the opponents were Chicago (32nd in ppg allowed) and Tampa Bay (26th in ppg allowed). Previous to the last two games, Detroit had scored a total of 35 points in three games since their bye week. Neither Detroit nor Minnesota gained 4 yards per play in this season's first meeting, a 17-3 Detroit win. But the Lions finished with a +3 turnover margin and sacked Teddy Bridgewater eight times. The former Louisville signal caller is much better now than he was then, especially when it comes to recognizing pre-snap defensive adjustments and movement and let's not fail to mention Minnesota is a grand total of just 12 points away from a 7-0 run (4-3 SU last 7). They even gave the red-hot Packers all they could handle in a 24-21 Green Bay win (Minnesota cover) just three weeks ago. The Vikings are on a 6-1 ATS run in their last seven games, overall, and the underdog in this series is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Vikings are a better team than the one Detroit beat earlier this season and I believe this game will go right to the wire. I'm recommending a play on Minnesota plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday 5* Free NFL Play Pittsburgh Steelers -2

Both of these teams can drive you nuts but I am more convinced that Pittsburgh will come through than Atlanta...even on the road. Pittsburgh has the more diverse offense and better defense and will get the victory here.

Look for a lot of points to be scored in this one but in the end the Steelers will pull away thanks to LeVeon Bell who is proving to be a real monster this season. Take Big Ben over Matty Ice.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter

Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

*3 Star Free Pick* Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs were embarrassed by the Oakland Raiders a few weeks ago in Oakland. Kansas City's season is on the line now. They absolutely have to come out ready to play in this game. The Raiders are winless on the road, and now they go to a very tough environment. Oakland is feeling good about themselves after a huge win over their rivals from San Francisco, and that makes me like this play more. The line value here is also nice. The Chiefs were favored by 7.5 in Oakland earlier this year, and now they are only favored by 10 at home. That's an overreaction by the market. Kansas City has a great home field advantage, and the Chiefs are a desperate bunch now. Take Kansas City here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Carlo Campanella

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

10* Bonus Play Pittsburgh Steelers

After beating 1st place AFC North division rival, Cincinnati (8-4-1) the Steelers (8-5) are back in the chase for the division crown and just 1/2 game behind the Bengals. That's bad news for a Falcons team that's 0-3 against the AFC North this season, already losing to the Bengals by 14 points, 24-10, the Browns by 2 points, 26-24, and the Baltimore Ravens by 19 points, 29-10. Last Sunday's victory over the Bengals wasn't that shocking as Pittsburgh is on a 5-2 winning streak during their last seven games, with their two losses coming by just 3 & 7 points! Pittsburgh's offense is currently one of the most balanced in the NFL, as QB "Big Ben" tossed 350 passing yards last Sunday against the Bengals while the running game, led by RB Bell, added another 193 rushing yards! The Falcons (5-8) have been playing better football the past few weeks, but they come off a very tough game against the Packers on Monday Night Football and return on a short week of rest to face another solid offense. With the Atlanta defense allowing 26.3 points per game, including 20 points or more in 8 STRAIGHT games, we're laying less than a Field Goal with a red hot Steeler's team that rolls over the Falcons, just like their 3 AFC North rivals have already done this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a huge NFC East showdown set to start at 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, December 14. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. With the line at 3 1/2, I like making this a combination wager comprised of an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. Revenge is certainly a factor for the Dallas team and several individual players too, that want to redeem themselves from the Thanksgiving humiliating defeat to the Eagles. One of those players is Dallas offensive guard Zack Martin, who has had just two games with negative grades this season. On eof those was Thanksgiving Day. He has demonstrated all season why eh is one of the top ranked players at his position in the NFL and also the best OL on the Dallas squad. He has yet to give a sack and ranks third-best in the NFL in pass block efficiency. The offensive line has done a great job this year and Jason Whiten has contributed to that end. He is arguably the best blocking TE in run or pass schemes in the NFL. You may see Dallas line him up on the same side of the field as DE Fletcher Cox, who has had a better five week stretch than J.J. Waats. This apparent double team situation though can be a huge short pass opportunity to get the ball to Whiten in space. So, look for him to 'chip' block Cox and release to the flat for an easy pass and catch. On the defensive side, look for Orlando Scandrick to have another great game in coverage downs. He has not had a 'red' grade in any game this season. It is completely debatable and I understand that, but Dallas ranks best offensive grade in the NFL entering this game. This is in large part because of the dominating running of DeMarco Murray and the strong run blocking of the OL. Dallas ranks best in the NFL in third down conversions (49%). Again, this is because Dallas gets meaningful yards on the early downs and sets up manageable third down conversions. On the flip side, the Eagles offense has the moved the ball well between the 20's, but ranks 28th in the NFL in red zone scoring this season. Philadelphia is dead last in giveaways and this is an area that greatly concerns me for the Eagles December success. Turnovers play a huge part in any NFL game, but even more so in December when playoff type games become far more common. Dallas i 6-0 on the road this season and Romo is a stellar 14-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Further, Dallas is a solid money making 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Take the Dallas Cowboys.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions 4:25PM

My Bonus Play Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions were 7-2 after a ?miracle? 22-21 win over Atlanta in London (Week 8) and a late 20-16 comeback win at home over the Dolphins in Week 10. However, the Lions then lost 14-6 at Arizona and 34-9 at New England. Detroit failed to score a TD in EITHER game, averaging 298.5 YPG of offense while converting just 10 of 32 third downs (31.2%). The Lions were set to return for THREE straight home games (beginning on Thanksgiving against the Bears) but this was a team which had earned the label of being a late-season disappointment in recent years.

However, Jim Caldwell just may be on to something here in Detroit, as the Lions have but themselves in prime playoff position by beating the Bears and Bucs by the identical scores of 34-17 these last two weeks. Entering this three-game homestand, the Lions hadn?t topped 24 points in a game since their 35-14 Week 1 over the Giants but they?ve looked like a different team the last two weeks. Stafford has completed 60 of 79 passes (that?s 70.1%) while throwing for 701 yards with five TDs and not a single INT in those 79 attempts (QB ratings of 116.0 and 133.3). It sure helps that ?Megatron? is back healthy (19 catches for 304 yards with three TDs), as Detroit has gained 474 and 404 yards the last two games, while converting 12 of 27 third downs (44.4%).

Avoiding a potential letdown on Sunday is something the team?s new head coach is aware of. However, the Minnesota Vikings come in looking for a third straight win, so the Lions should be forewarned. More importantly, last Sunday's win (Dec 7), ended a run of NINE consecutive December losses for Detroit. There is definitely a new ?sheriff? in town. "It's a new day. He said it from the beginning, coach (Jim) Caldwell, put it on Caldwell," center Dominic Raiola told the team's official website. "We keeping doing it every week and it's getting fun around here. The more we just worry about what's going on right now, handle the day, the better off we're going to be."

The Lions are 3-0 in the NFC North and trail the first-place Packers by one game. Detroit will play in Green Bay in Week 17, where the Lions have lost 22 in a row. Considering that ominous situation looming, just how can the Lions come out flat in their final home game of the year against the Vikings? I don?t expect they will. The Detroit defense ranks 1st in points allowed (17.2 per) and 2nd in yards allowed (295.7 per) and in the first meeting with the Vikings, beat them 17-3. The Lions held the Vikings to a measly 212 yards and tortured rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, intercepting him THREE times and sacking him EIGHT times.

Yes, the Vikings are coming off back-to-back wins in which they?ve scored 31 and 30 points, with Bridgewater completing 34 of 48 (70.8%) for 447 yards with four TDs and just one INT (QB ratings of 120.7 & 117.7). However, those wins have come over the Panthers and Jets and both were at home. Winning at Detroit where the Lions are 6-1, is 'a horse of a different color.' Lay it with the Lions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers 4:05PM

5* Denver Broncos

Reason: 5* Play on Denver. Last year the San Diego Chargers stunned the Broncos as they won by a touchdown in Denver as a big 9.5-point road underdog. Denver hasn't taken San Diego lightly since, winning by a touchdown on the road last year, and then beating the Chargers by two touchdowns this season (at home). We'll back the Broncos to win and cover this small line easily this Sunday.

Chargers are coming off a high-profile loss on Sunday Night Football - losing at home against another prolific passing attack against Tom Brady and the Patriots. San Diego allowed 310 yards passing in the nine-point loss, and they have shown to be vulnerable in their secondary all season long. Denver went for 286 yards passing in the first in-season matchup, and more importantly they shut down SD's running game - which was the main reason for last year's upset. More of the same here! 5* Play on Denver.