Sunday 12/13/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Timberwolves (9-13) at Suns (10-14)

Date: December 13, 2015 3:30 PM EDT

The Minnesota Timberwolves can use youth as an explanation for their inconsistency. The Phoenix Suns are still trying to figure out the reason for their up-and-down play.

Both teams will try to shake off frustrating losses in their first meeting of the season Sunday.

Neither the Timberwolves nor the Suns are going particularly well right now, with Minnesota (9-13) having lost five of six and Phoenix (10-14) nine of 12 following an encouraging 7-5 start.

The Suns appeared to be back on track after beginning the week with close wins over Chicago and Orlando, but couldn't sustain the momentum in Friday's 106-96 home loss to Portland.

Playing its fourth game in six days, Phoenix was outscored 28-14 in the fourth quarter while going 4 of 15 from the field with six turnovers.

The Suns received 31 points from Eric Bledsoe but an off night from backcourt mate Brandon Knight, who missed all 12 of his shots and scored his lone point with 7:34 remaining.

'We were trying to get him to stay aggressive at the beginning of the fourth quarter, but he was just kind of dribbling around and not looking for the shot,' coach Jeff Hornacek said.

Knight had 21 points in each of Phoenix's two previous victories and is averaging a career-high 20.5 while ranking in the top 10 in minutes played (36.0 per game).

The Timberwolves may be a bit weary as well after having their last two games go to overtime. After edging the Los Angeles Lakers 123-122 on Wednesday, they failed to hold on to an 18-point third-quarter lead in Friday's 111-108 loss at Denver.

'We couldn't get enough stops and gave up too many 3-pointers in the second half,' coach Sam Mitchell said.

The Timberwolves' last four losses have been by six points or less. They're 5-10 in games decided by fewer than 10 points, hardly a surprising result for a team whose top three scorers (Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine) are all 20 years old.

Minnesota has been getting increased production lately from one of its veterans, as Kevin Martin followed a season-high 37 points against the Lakers with 22 on Friday. The 32-year-old had averaged 7.7 points on 28.3 percent shooting over his previous 12 outings.

Friday's loss began a stretch of five of seven on the road for Minnesota. The Timberwolves have dropped four of six as the visitor after a 4-0 start, while Phoenix has lost four of five at home after winning five of seven.

The Suns won both games with Minnesota in Phoenix and three of four overall last season. Markieff Morris averaged 20.5 points in the series but has been removed from the recent rotation amid rumors that the Suns are shopping the unhappy forward.

Towns, averaging 21.3 points on 61.7 percent shooting over his last four, will go head-to-head with Alex Len in an intriguing matchup of promising young centers. The 22-year-old Len, who has started Phoenix's last eight games in place of an injured Tyson Chandler, is averaging 15.0 points and 8.8 rebounds over a four-game stretch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Grizzlies (13-11) at Heat (12-9)

Date: December 13, 2015 6:00 PM EDT

Too many mistakes are hurting the Memphis Grizzlies at the defensive end and the Miami Heat at the offensive end.

Both frustrated franchises might be happy their matchup Sunday night is in Miami considering the Heat have been so much better there and the Grizzlies have been downright embarrassing at home lately.

Even though Miami (12-9) is mired in its first losing streak of the season, Memphis (13-11) certainly sounds like the more distressed team. The Grizzlies have alternated wins and losses in six games this month, but the three defeats all came at home by at least 20 points apiece.

'I wish I could explain it to you,' center Marc Gasol said. 'I wish I could. ... We are chasing our tails.'

Maybe leaving home can help. Memphis has won its last three road games and plays six of its next eight outside Tennessee.

Awful starts to the second half have often doomed the Grizzlies. They've been outscored in the third quarter in five straight and seven of eight, including by a 54-point margin in their four losses during that span.

"It's embarrassing on our part, this is not Grizzlies basketball," point guard Mike Conley said. "This is not what we're about. ... There's no excuse for it."

That's certainly true on defense, an area in which Memphis has long excelled. The Grizzlies finished among the league's top five in scoring defense in each of the past four seasons, allowing an average of 93.0 points, but currently rank in the middle of the pack at 101.3 per game.

Memphis let an opponent surpass 120 points for the second time in three games Friday, falling 123-99 to Charlotte. The Hornets' 18 3-pointers were the most by a Grizzlies opponent since last December.

"It is frustrating because we are a defensive-minded team, and we believe in it," Conley said. "To see us go out there and give up so many points, and not only do we give up points but it looks easy. It's like teams aren't even struggling to score on us."

The Heat are having problems at the other end, committing at least 17 turnovers in four consecutive games. They've lost three straight after being held below 84 points in both stops of a two-game trip, at Charlotte and Indiana.

"Mistakes are part of the game, but we just gotta do a better job of understanding that we have to value our possessions," Dwyane Wade said after being held to six second-half points in Friday's 96-83 loss to the Pacers. "... If we keep our turnovers low, we're a good offensive team."

His team is certainly better offensively at home, averaging 99.0 points while going 10-4. Miami is 2-5 on the road with an average of 88.1 points. The Heat have won five of seven at home as Wade has averaged 24.3 points, compared to 11.8 during their current 1-4 stretch on the road.

"In a season in the NBA, you can't let three (losses) turn into five or six," said Chris Bosh, who had 23 points and 10 rebounds Friday. "... We're gonna have to bring a lot of energy at home. We know Memphis is physical, we know that they play well. So we're gonna have to put everything into this next game."

Bosh has averaged just 12.3 points in his last four matchups with Memphis.

Conley has averaged 22.7 points as the Grizzlies have won the past three meetings, including two last season despite Wade scoring 25 in each.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: 76ers (1-23) at Raptors (15-9)

Date: December 13, 2015 6:00 PM EDT

The Toronto Raptors have tightened up defensively through an extended homestand and will likely continue that trend when they wrap it up.

The Raptors will seek to continue their dominance over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers and their league-worst scoring attack Sunday night.

Toronto (15-9) gave up an average of 109.0 points while dropping the first two of six consecutive home games, although one of those performances came against Golden State. The Raptors have yielded an average of 90.0 points while winning their three ensuing games and edged the league's second-best team, San Antonio, during that stretch.

"We've got to live by making teams feel us defensively," coach Dwane Casey said.

Toronto yielded its fewest points in seven games Friday in a 90-83 win over Milwaukee and gave up a season-low 31 in the first half. DeMar DeRozan scored 27 points and hit a key basket with 1:42 to go after the Bucks cut a 19-point deficit to four.

"At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is winning the game. As long as we're winning, everyone in this locker room is happy," center Bismack Biyombo said. "I think we did a good job as we have done for the last few nights. We've just got to continue to build on it."

The Raptors will next face a Philadelphia team that's averaging 91.0 points - four fewer than any other team - while shooting 41.6 percent.

The 76ers (1-23) couldn't recover from a 14-point first quarter in a 107-95 loss to Detroit on Friday. They had 10 of their 21 turnovers in the opening period, during which they are averaging a league-worst 18.2 points. Philadelphia is also last in the league in turnovers at 18.2 per game.

"We have been starting in a hole with turnovers," said coach Brett Brown, who signed a multiyear extension Friday. "We spotted them an (11-0 lead) in the first two or three minutes. The turnovers were the part that disturbed us the most."

Philadelphia had its second-fewest turnovers (12) of the season and one of its best scoring performances against Toronto on Nov. 11, but also had one of its worst defensive showings in a 119-103 loss. The 76ers also gave up 119 points while losing by 51 to San Antonio on Monday and have allowed at least 100 in four consecutive games, one shy of a season high.

They've given up triple digits in each of its last four games in Toronto and lost two visits last season by a combined 48 points. The Raptors have won nine in a row overall in this series while averaging 109.9 points.

Philadelphia has lost 18 straight on the road since beating Denver on March 25, two shy of the franchise-worst skid in 1987-88.

"We've got to respect them and come back with the same mentality," Biyombo said.

Jahlil Okafor tied a season high with 26 points in last month's matchup. He's scored 22 in each of his last two games and leads all rookies with 17.3 per game.

Kyle Lowry had a team-best 23 points and eight assists in the win in November while Luis Scola contributed 21 points on 10-of-15 shooting. Scola, scoring 10.0 points per game, is averaging 17.3 while shooting 62.2 percent in his last three games against Philadelphia.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jazz (10-11) at Thunder (15-8)

Date: December 13, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

The Utah Jazz have shown they can compete with the Oklahoma City Thunder, though defeating the Northwest Division leaders remains a chore.

That task has been considerably more difficult in Oklahoma City.

The Jazz attempt to halt an eight-game road losing streak in the series when the teams square off for the second time in three days Sunday night.

Oklahoma City (15-8) earned its fourth straight win and eighth in 10 games with a 94-90 triumph in Friday's opener of this home-and-home set. The Thunder improved to 15-5 in their last 20 matchups with Utah (10-11), including a 111-89 victory in Salt Lake City on Nov. 23.

Kevin Durant had 27 points on 10 of 13 shooting in the first meeting and took over down the stretch of Friday's game. The four-time scoring champion recorded the Thunder's last 11 points, highlighted by a tie-breaking 3 with 1:06 left and two free throws with 2.0 seconds remaining that sealed the outcome.

'He's a great player," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said. "There's no way I'm going to criticize the way we played defense down the stretch. We were tuned in. 'He made a shot. He made a couple shots. I don't know what to say about that. ... A great player. A Hall of Fame player. That's what he does.'

The Jazz did show resiliency in defeat, putting forth a 16-4 run to tie it at 87 before Durant's late heroics.

"This was a game that I was really proud of how we competed. It was a very physical game, and I thought we took that challenge," Snyder said.

Better precision will be necessary, however, for Utah to come through with its first win at Chesapeake Energy Arena since Oct. 31, 2010. The Jazz haven't scored more than 96 points during their eight-game skid.

Utah has been among the league's top 3-point shooting teams at 36.5 percent but finished 8 of 28 from beyond the arc on Friday.

Though Gordon Heyward has shot 54.1 percent (20 of 37) from 3 in averaging 21.8 points over his six, Rodney Hood has been struggling. The second-year guard is 1 for 10 from long range in the last two games and has been held to single-digits in points in four of the past five.

The duo again faces an Oklahoma City team that's been outstanding defensively during its four-game surge, limiting opponents to 91.8 points and 41.8 percent shooting.

After allowing 100 points or more in 10 of their first 12 games, the Thunder have yielded 99 or fewer in nine of their last 11.

'I think we are getting better defensively," coach Billy Donovan said. 'I don't think on either end of the floor we are exactly where we want to be, but I think we are moving in a positive direction from that standpoint."

Having a healthy Durant has certainly helped as well. The star forward is averaging 26.6 points and 8.9 rebounds in nine games since returning from a hamstring injury, highlighted by a 25-point, 12-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in Thursday's 107-94 win over Atlanta.

The Thunder have won five straight at home and are 10-3 this season. Utah has dropped five of seven on the road following a 3-1 start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Memphis won its last three road games (3-3AU).
-- Toronto won its last three home games (0-5 last five HF).
-- Thunder won four in row, eight of last ten games (2-6 last eight HF).

Cold teams
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six games (2-6 last 8AU). Phoenix lost five of its last seven games (0-4 last four HF).
-- Miami lost its last three games, all by 11+ (2-5 last seven HF).
-- 1-23 Philly is 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games.
-- Jazz lost four of their last six games (5-2AU).

Series records
-- Suns won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Grizzlies won last three games with Miami.
-- 76ers lost their last nine games with Toronto.
-- Thunder won four of last five games with Utah.

Totals
-- Five of last six Minnesota games went over total.
-- Four of last five Miami games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Philly games stayed under total.
-- Last six Jazz-Thunder games stayed under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Explorers (4-3) at Wildcats (7-1)

Date: December 13, 2015 5:00 PM EDT

After a rough outing thousands of miles away from home, Villanova returns to a far more familiar and comfortable surrounding.

The ninth-ranked Wildcats vie to bounce back from a lopsided loss and maintain their recent Big 5 dominance when they host La Salle on Sunday night.

Villanova (7-1) wasn't up to the challenge in its first big test of this young season, struggling on both ends in a 78-55 drubbing from No. 7 Oklahoma in Monday's Pearl Harbor Invitational in Hawaii. The Wildcats were a dreadful 4 of 32 from 3-point range and shot 31.7 percent overall while failing to slow down the Sooners' potent offense.

Oklahoma opened on a 15-3 run and kept the Wildcats at bay behind a 14-of-27 performance from beyond the arc.

'We have not started well any game this season and to do it against a team like that and to try to come from behind against a team like that, you're going to be in trouble and that's what happened,' Villanova coach Jay Wright said.

One of the nation's best teams from the perimeter last season, the Wildcats have made a Big East-worst 28.6 percent of their 3-pointers thus far. The offseason losses of current Detroit Piston Darrun Hilliard and Dylan Ennis have proven difficult to overcome, particularly with Josh Hart having trouble finding consistency in his new role as the go-to scorer.

Hart, the 2014-15 Big East sixth man of the year, is 4 for 23 from 3 in four games since a career-high 27-point effort against Akron on Nov. 22. The junior shot 46.4 percent on 3-pointers last season.

Additionally, forward Kris Jenkins is 6 for 30 from beyond the arc in the last four games.

The Wildcats were clicking offensively in an 86-72 victory at St. Joseph's on Dec. 1 that extended their Big 5 winning streak to 11 games. Their last loss to a Philadelphia-based school was a 76-61 defeat to Temple on Dec. 5, 2012, 10 days after being dealt a 77-74 overtime loss to a La Salle team that reached the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 that season.

The Explorers (4-3) are just 36-35 since that remarkable run, however, and enter The Pavilion off home losses to Hofstra and previously winless Drexel.

"I don't think in my lifetime I have done a worse job in coaching," coach Dr. John Giannini said after the Explorers' 66-53 loss to Drexel last Saturday. "I don't think we are where we should be as individuals or as a team, and that's completely on me."

La Salle does possess one of the nation's top scorers in Jordan Price (25.9 points per game), though the Auburn transfer was held to 5-of-14 shooting by Drexel after amassing a career-high 37 points against Hofstra.

Villanova also held Price in check in last season's matchup with La Salle, limiting him to 10 points on 2-of-8 shooting in an 84-70 victory for its 12th win in the series' past 13 games.

The Explorers have lost five straight at The Pavilion since a 61-58 overtime win Nov. 27, 2001. Villanova has won 30 in a row overall at its on-campus arena.

La Salle lost 80-64 at Penn on Nov. 25 in its Big 5 opener. The Explorers were 2-2 in the intracity series last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Warhawks (4-4) at Mountainers (7-1)

Date: December 13, 2015 5:00 PM EDT

Listen to Bob Huggins talk for five minutes and you'd swear he was coaching a team that had played one good half all season instead of one very bad one.

But the rotten one was also the most recent, and that had Huggins huffing after 14th-ranked West Virginia's first loss and almost certainly in the days leading up to Sunday's bounce-back opportunity against Louisiana-Monroe.

The Mountaineers (7-1) outscored their first seven opponents by an average of 30.8 points, and their first test against a ranked opponent was going just fine through 20 minutes. But after cutting through No. 10 Virginia's defense and holding a 36-30 halftime lead, West Virginia was badly outplayed on both ends after the break in a 70-54 loss.

Taking any solace in that first-half performance, Bob?

"Do I look happy?" he asked grimly. "Do I look happy? I'm not happy. I'm not happy about anything."

What irked Huggins the most was his team's defensive effort. The Cavaliers shot 62.8 percent for the game and 73.7 percent in the second half, dismantling a Mountaineers team that had held its first six opponents to 36.6 percent from the field.

"We were awful. I don't remember ever a team giving up that many layups in the halfcourt," Huggins said. "Our halfcourt defense is supposed to be pretty good."

West Virginia shot 6 for 20 after halftime and its starting backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles Jr. was a combined 2 for 17 overall, all of which left Huggins sarcastically considering a new offensive system.

"I can't imagine we're as bad as we are," he said. "If we're going to shoot it that bad we shouldn't shoot it. I watch them every day. I know we take bad shots, out of rhythm, off balance. We don't do a very good job of stepping into shots."

That's especially true from beyond the arc, where the Mountaineers are connecting on just 27 percent to rank among the bottom 20 teams in the nation. West Virginia averages just 4.6 made 3s and has totaled 12 on 51 attempts in its past four contests.

Turnovers have also become a problem for a team that prides itself on forcing them. Huggins' team has 35 in its last two games and his press only forced one more (19) than his team committed against the Cavaliers.

"We've got to go back and start from the beginning and you can't progress when you are going over the elementary things you have to do in order to advance," he told the Mountaineers' official website.

Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) isn't a team that's going to exploit West Virginia from deep - it makes 4.1 3s per game and shoots 28.9 percent - and the Warhawks should be fighting fatigue as well. They'll be playing their third game in four days after falling 73-62 at Kent State on Thursday and 54-50 at Penn State on Saturday.

Coach Keith Richard took the opposite approach to Huggins' sharp critiques after his team turned it over 18 times against the Nittany Lions, declining to comment.

Louisiana-Monroe has played both games on this trip without its best player, 6-foot-10 forward Majok Deng. The Australian, responsible for nearly 27 percent of the offense with 18.3 points per game, sustained a leg injury earlier in the week and is out indefinitely.

The Mountaineers were also ranked 14th the last time these teams met and won 88-69 at Morgantown in 2005.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tigers (5-3) at Wildcats (8-1)

Date: December 13, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Arizona coach Sean Miller is hoping that Allonzo Trier can follow in the footsteps of some of his other former stars and experience a breakthrough after his latest performance.

The freshman will try for another high-scoring game when the 13th-ranked Wildcats continue their homestand Sunday against Missouri.

Trier had 27 points on 8-of-11 shooting and six rebounds in an 85-72 win over Fresno State on Wednesday. The swingman, who matched his scoring output from his prior two games, looks like he's building toward becoming a more consistent performer since tallying five points in back-to-back contests last month in a California tournament.

Miller is now banking on his highly touted recruit turning into a reliable threat like Derrick Williams, Aaron Gordon and Stanley Johnson before him.

"Eventually, you come to it with all these guys," Miller said. "As you learn who they are, a trust starts to develop. And once we see they are really working hard to do what we ask of them, it's just a matter of time."

Trier will get a familiar place to keep honing his game with Arizona (8-1) getting four more chances to play in Tucson before its Pac-12 opener Jan. 3 at Arizona State.

"I felt like coach had a lot of confidence in me," Trier said. "Anytime somebody tells you that you can go out there and be yourself, do what you do best, it feels good. It allows you to be comfortable."

Arizona will try to extend its NCAA-best home win streak to 44 games when it faces a program that's dropped 16 straight on the road dating back to February 2014. Missouri is 0-3 away from home with two neutral-site losses to Kansas State and Northwestern State last month.

The Tigers (5-3) have won three straight since then after beating Nebraska-Omaha 85-78 on Wednesday. Freshman forward Kevin Puryear, averaging a team-best 14.1 points on 54.7 percent shooting, had 18 against the Mavericks and grabbed a season-high eight rebounds.

Missouri's other top scorer is also a freshman, point guard Terrence Phillips (10.0 ppg). He had 14 points Wednesday and a combined 27 in the past two games.

"We're feeling good. We're playing with confidence after losing three straight," Phillips said. "We've got to continue this confidence, continue playing together and playing hard as we go to Arizona."

The Wildcats didn't have their leading scorer, Ryan Anderson, for last season's matchup against the Tigers in the Maui Invitational because he was sitting out following a transfer from Boston College.

The No. 3-ranked team won 72-53 while holding Missouri to 36.4 percent shooting and a 3-of-13 performance from 3-point range. Arizona was en route to a 34-win campaign - one shy of matching its school mark - and a second straight regional finals appearance in the NCAA tournament.

The Tigers, meanwhile, were on their way to a nine-win season under first-year coach Kim Anderson, their worst since going 3-23 in 1966-67. The schools split their previous two meetings with Arizona winning in the 1994 NCAA regional finals.

Missouri has lost its last eight games against Top 25 teams by an average of 19.5 points, with five of those matchups coming last season. The Tigers have also dropped 14 of their last 15 road contests versus ranked teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Sunday's games..........

Syracuse is in Game 3 of Boeheim's suspension; they lost at Georgetown by 7 in only true road game. Orange are 5-0 vs teams outside top 100; all five wins were by 10+ points. ACC road favorites are 2-6 vs spread; Big East underdogs are 11-9, 0-1 at home. St John's lost by 37-10 in its two top 100 games; they turn ball over 22.1% of time, shoot 29.9% on arc.

Notre Dame is 6-2, winning its four games vs teams outside top 100 by 31-8-26-5 points. Irish have #30 eFG%; they're making 40.2% of 3's, are #11 in country protecting ball. Loyola upset Creighton in last game after losses to two teams outside top 100; Ramblers turn ball over 21% of the time, but force TOs 23.1% of time. MVC road underdogs are 5-11.

Indiana State lost its last three games by 6-14-6 points; they're 0-2 in true road games, losing at E. Illinois/Butler. Sycamores are shooting 29.8% on arc, have #301 eFG%. Western Kentucky is 3-4 vs D-I teams, forcing the 6th-least # of turnovers in country- they're making 41.3% of 3's. MVC road underdogs are 5-11 vs spread; C-USA home favorites are 9-9.

Rhode Island is 5-0 vs teams outside top 100, 0-3 vs top 100 teams; they lost to Maryland of Big 14 by 23 on neutral floor. URI is #7 in country at getting to foul line, but shoot only 60.2% on line. Nebraska is 0-4 vs teams in to 60, losing by 24-4-5-16 points; Huskiers turn ball over 19.9% of time. Atlantic 14 teams are 8-11 vs spread in true road games.

St Joe's is 6-2 despite shooting 26% on arc, 10th-worst in country; they won two of last three games with Temple, beating Owls by hoop in LY's game. Hawks are 4-0 vs teams outside top 100. Temple is 4-4 with best win over #134 Minnesota; all four of its losses are against top 50 teams. AAC home favorites are 18-7 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 4-7.

Yale is 5-4 with best win over #146 Vermont; all four of its losses are to teams ranked #106 or higher; Bulldogs are 1-4 in true road games, with a win at #214 Lehigh. Yale turns ball over 21.4% of time. #43 USC is 7-2, with losses to Monmouth/Xavier on neutral floor; Trojans making 38% of shots on arc. Ivy League road underdogs are 5-15 against the spread.

Villanova got hammered by Oklahoma on Pearl Harbor Monday, its first loss; Wildcats beat LaSalle last two years by 14-21 points. Villanova has #11 eFG% in country, forcing turnovers 23.1% of time. LaSalle lost last three D-I games, incouding loss to previously winless Drexel; Explorers' subs play 3rd-least minutes in country, and against the #331 schedule.

Clemson is 6-2 vs schedule #337; their best win was over #198 Wofford; Tigers are making 39.2% on arc- they're experienced teams that is badly underscheduled. Alabama lost PG Ingram for season LW; they haven't played in nine days, but won last three games- four of seven games were against top 50 teams (5-2). SEC road underdogs are 6-4 against spread.

UTEP lost last two games after 6-0 start; they've played schedule #343; they lost by 14 at New Mexico State in only true road game. Miners' best won was in double OT over #142 Colorado State. Washington State lost at Idaho last game; Coogs are 5-2 vs schedule #346- their best win was vs #241 Texas Southern. Conference USA road underdogs are 14-25

Arizona is hampered by injury to big man Tarczewski but they are 8-1, with only loss on neutral floor to Providence; Widlcats are 4-0 vs teams outside top 100, with three of four wins by 18+ points. Missouri is 5-3 vs schedule #222; their best win is over #165 No Illinois. Pac-12 home favorites are 27-15 vs spread; SEC road underdogs are 6-4.

LSU lost three of last four games; the win was 119-108 over No Florida, an America Sun team; Tigers have #38 team in experience that has played the #304 schedule and they're 4-3. Houston is 5-1 against easiest schedule in country so far, losing by 10 at URI last game. Cougars have #24 eFG% in country- they're shooting 57.6% inside the arc.

UCSB is #26 in experience that is 2-4 against #17 schedule- both its wins are on road, at Omaha/San Francisco- three of Gauchos' four losses are by 12+ points. South Dakota State is 8-1 with wins at Minnesota, Illinois State; Jackrabbits are making 40.7% on arc, have #35 eFG%. Big West road underdogs are 12-8 vs spread; Summit home favorites are 8-7.

Colorado State lost its last three D-I games, allowing 90 ppg; they force turnovers only 12.4% of time, 2nd-worst in country. Rams won last five games with Northern Colorado, with four of five by 14+ points. Bears are 0-6 vs D-I teams; they have two non-D-I wins- teams are shooting 57.6% inside arc against Bears- their eFG% is #347, 5th-worst in US.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Best Bets - Week 16
By Chris David

Week 15 Recap

The underdogs were barking early last Saturday as Stoke City (+400) and Bournemouth (+800) captured upsets against Manchester City and Chelsea respectively. We also had three surprising draws in games between West Ham-Manchester United (+360), Aston Villa-Southampton (+340) and Tottenham-West Brom (+255). The upsets continued Sunday and Monday as New Castle United (+400) blanked Liverpool at home while Crystal Palace played Everton to a 1-1 draw (+290).

Underdogs closed the week 4-2 with four draws, while the ‘under’ posted an eye opening 8-2 mark. Through 15 weeks, favorites are 66-41 with 43 draws. After last week’s lopsided total results, the ‘under’ holds a 75-71-4 mark this season.

Champions-Europa Action

If it wasn’t for Manchester United coming up short, all four of the Premier League teams would’ve advanced to the Champions League knockout phase. The Red Devils disappointed in their road loss to Wolfsburg while Arsenal answered the bell with a big 3-0 win at Greece. The Gunners finished second in their group behind favorite Bayern Munich, while Manchester City and Chelsea won their groups with two-goal victories this past week.

In Europa League action, both Tottenham and Liverpool won their groups and advanced to the knockout phase of the competition. The aforementioned Red Devils will try to rebound from the CL defeat by entering this event as a third-place finisher in the CL. The Europa winner now receives an automatic berth to next year’s Champions League tournament.

Arsenal at Aston Villa (Sunday, NBCSN, 8:30 a.m. ET)

The Gunners (-185) visit Villa Park on Sunday and they could be in for a letdown spot after advancing in the Champions League earlier this week. Standing in there way will be an Aston Villa (+525) team that has only one win in league play this season and managed just two points in seven home games.

Arsenal has won four straight against Villa in all competitions and have outscored them 14-1 during this span. The Gunners have shown a great knack of winning on the road (5-1-2) this season in all competitions and they should have confidence after Wednesday’s victory at Olympiakos.

The total on this game is 2 ½ and both teams have slightly leaned to the ‘over’ this season with identical 8-7 marks. The difference is that Arsenal’s goal differential is +14 (27-13) while Aston Villa is -15 (28-13).

The draw (+280) appears to be a long shot as well, but Villa did earn a tie at home against Manchester City and they just came up short to Manchester United, 1-0.

Chelsea at Leicester City (Monday, NBCSN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Quality game set for Monday night as Chelsea (+125) meets Leicester City (+215) in a game between teams going in opposite directions. The oddsmakers are still giving a ton of respect to the defending champions and not much to the team that currently sits in first place of the Premier League.

Leicester (9-5-1) has only lost one game this season and owns the best offense in the league, netting 32 goals. At home against Top 4 teams, City was blasted by Arsenal 5-2 and it escaped with a 1-1 draw to Manchester United. Also, it only managed a 1-1 draw against Tottenham earlier this season at home. Those results show you that Leicester hasn’t been able to solve the best clubs just yet and this is why it’s listed as a home underdog on Monday.

Betting on Chelsea hasn’t been a winning proposition, especially on the road. The Blues have managed five points (1-2-4) in seven games and have been nearly doubled-up (13-7) in goal differential. Chelsea’s defense has been better of late, allowing one goal in its last five games in all competitions. The total for Monday’s tilt is listed at 2 ½ goals, which makes you believe the defense will be sound again.

Fearless Predictions

We dropped $210 last week and the way things had been going, that’s actually a positive. Still plenty of time left to right the sinking ship ($2,255) but certainly need to pick up the pace. With the 10 games spread out this weekend, we have a little bit of everything covered.

Straight – Under 2 ½ (-140) Watford-Sunderland - 2 Units

Straight – Tottenham -1 ½ (+110) over New Castle United – 2 Units

Straight – Under 2 ½ (+100) Chelsea-Leicester City – 2 Units

 

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Streaks, Tips, Notes

San Francisco at Cleveland December 13, 1:00 EST

Making a case for either the dysfunctional Browns or inconsistent 49ers has its challenges. But, someone has to win this ugly mess of a game and the numbers point to dysfunctional Browns. Niners defeated Bears in OT last Sunday for a rare win. Unfortunately, Niners have been a terrible play for bettors following a win. Niners are 2-5 ATS last seven after tasting victory, 0-3 ATS taking points off an upset win the previous effort. Additionaly, Niners are lowsy against the spread in December road games (4-8-1 ATS), lowsy as underdogs in the second of back-2-back road games (2-5-1 ATS). GO-Johnny-GO it's your last chance with the Browns.


Washington at Chicago December 13, 1:00 EST

A flashing red light for Washington backers. The Redskins haven't won on the road this season (0-5, 1-4 ATS), have one win the past nineteen away from the Nations Capital (5-14 ATS). Additionally, Redskins taking points on short rest have not been a peg to hang your hat on. In the last seven such situations the Redskins are 1-6 ATS.

 

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cal-Expo

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 5:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$2600 - NON-WINNERS OF $1,500


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 I'M AN ATHLETE 2/1


# 6 SHEER DESIRE 9/5


# 1 LA DIVA DE ROSA 7/1


I'M AN ATHLETE looks really good to best this group of animals. Lining up in the 5 post at Cal-Expo adds some hidden advantage as this hole has a better than expected return on investment. Worth careful consideration here looking at the rankings in the speed figure department alone. Could most likely take this bunch given the 80 TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in his most recent competition. SHEER DESIRE - This harness racer looks very good considering the high class figures. Don't throw out of any exotics. Certainly should be given a look based on the very nice TrackMaster Speed Rating recorded in the most recent gathering. LA DIVA DE ROSA - That 71 speed fig clocked in the last race puts this contender in the mix in this contest.

 

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 8:06 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 93 - Purse:$11000 - OPEN HANDICAP POST POSITIONS 1 - 3 AND 4 - 6 DRAWN HENSLEY PICKED 6 OVER 2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 BLUEHOURPOWER 5/2


# 1 K-ROCK 9/2


# 6 DONT TELL RUSTY 3/1


The pick today is BLUEHOURPOWER. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 94 speed rating. Comes into this race with very good TrackMaster class ratings relative to the field - could be worth a shot. The consortium noted a formidable showing out of this nice horse last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to score. K-ROCK - He has been performing admirably and the speed figs are among the most favorable in the pack. Could surely better this pack given the 94 speed figure recorded in his most recent contest. DONT TELL RUSTY - Sometimes you just have to go with good feelings, favor this one's chances. Recorded a 97 TrackMaster Speed Rating in last race. A duplicate race here should get the victory in this contest.

 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6100 Class Rating: 47

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 ROOTS 5/2


# 7 ELENA ELENA 15/1


# 2 BECAUSE I SAY SO 1/1


ROOTS is the most competitive bet in this race. Facing a much less demanding field of horses than last time out. Has a very strong shot for this race if you like back class. Looks solid for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races recently. ELENA ELENA - Look for a strong attempt with the class drop. This horse has some longshot handicapping angles going for her. BECAUSE I SAY SO - Her earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone makes you take a look at her. Her chances to win are much better this time out facing this softer field of horses.

 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 89

FOR CERTIFIED ARIZONA BREDS) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 13, 2015 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $11,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 NORA'S SONG 5/2


# 7 QUINICHETTE 2/1


# 8 ENGLISH LACE 6/1


I think NORA'S SONG is a very strong choice. She should definitely be given a chance given the quite good speed figs. Has to be given a shot based on the very good Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last race. This racer has a very good win percentage in turf sprints. QUINICHETTE - Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (86 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figs of this group in her last contest. ENGLISH LACE - Has put up formidable Equibase speed figs in turf sprint races in the past. Will almost certainly compete admirably in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group.

 

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #4 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 HEARTOFTHETEMPLE (ML=4/1)
#2 DYNA STAR (ML=9/2)
#4 SISTER MOLLY (ML=15/1)


HEARTOFTHETEMPLE - This front-runner is running a shorter distance today. Should help her chances. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Finished off the board last out at Golden Gate Fields, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 4/1 makes me think she's got a chance. DYNA STAR - This filly is in fine form. Ran second on November 21st. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today. She has the uppermost earnings per start. Take a good look at this horse. SISTER MOLLY - Last time around the track was at Golden Gate Fields in a race with a class figure of 84. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure today puts her in a solid position today. I look for a significant improvement in this race with the addition of Lasix for the second time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CATHERINE'S CAUSE (ML=5/2), #5 LOVE CAUTIOUSLY (ML=6/1),

CATHERINE'S CAUSE - This filly didn't race too well last time out. LOVE CAUTIOUSLY - The speed figures are going downward. I'm not investing on this horse off of that trend. No good results for this steed in a short distance event over the last sixty days tells me that this filly is in a very difficult situation

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - HEARTOFTHETEMPLE - Last race was on the turf at Golden Gate Fields. Switching to a dirt race at 6 furlongs today. I like this play with maidens.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 HEARTOFTHETEMPLE to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,6] with [2,4,6] with [2,4,5,6,8] with [2,4,5,6,8] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:52pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 BRAVE ARROW (ML=7/2)


BRAVE ARROW - Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a nice outing on November 18th. Is ranked highest in earnings per race. A dominant effort right here can increase the lifetime earnings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 ASIAN COWGIRL (ML=5/2), #11 I'M JULIE (ML=9/2), #7 FAIREST OF ALL (ML=8/1),

ASIAN COWGIRL - Didn't meet expectations as the favorite twice in a row. I'M JULIE - Difficult to keep chasing this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Could be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the questionable challengers list. FAIREST OF ALL - This entrant hasn't been close to the winner at the wire of late. No success for this horse in a short distance contest over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a tough circumstance

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BRAVE ARROW - This filly's superior last speed number of 59, against these ponies, makes her the overwhelming choice.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #9 BRAVE ARROW on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Sunday 12/13 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 394 - 1192 / $2,202.00 BEST BETS: 56 - 96 / $196.60

Best Bet: TAC’S DELIGHT (4th)

Spot Play: RONNY BUGATTI (12th)


Race 1

(2) ALEXANDER LUKAS comes in off a solid two-move second place finish versus similar last out and can graduate today with smooth sailing. (8) CAMBRIDGE is stuck outside but he picks up Bartlett and has been facing better. (12) LUKAS HALL returns locally with class relief for Mark Ford.

Race 2

(9) SUMATRA has done everything right the last few weeks except win. The sharp trotter is just a smooth trip away from a victory. (10) NOT AFRAID when right this veteran is best but he's off three weeks. (1) CAN DO has been a solid earner since moving to the Reidel barn.

Race 3

(5) THERAPUTIC showed nothing last out but that was a needed start and he was facing better; Burke trainee fits with these and is worth a look. (8) ROCK OF CASHEL is stuck outside but he closed well last out and now adds Dube. (3) MUGSHOT JESS was uninvolved last out but he was a winner the start prior.

Race 4

(5) TAC'S DELIGHT has been super recently including a totally dominating win last out; he should repeat despite the rise in class. (2) PERFECT RENDITION trotted evenly in his local return for Stalbaum and he draws favorably again. (4) PASADENA STAR missed a nose at this level last out.

Race 5

(10) FOR YOU ALMOSTFREE put in a better effort last out after a series of ugly efforts and the veteran can build off that race. (5) GWALLY returns off a good second up at Saratoga and the trotter seems to fit nicely at this level. (1) EXTRACURRICULAR looks for three straight but he won't offer any value.

Race 6

(1) ZORGWIJK NOVA has been racing well save for last out when she was uninvolved from a tough spot; the drop in class and the post relief can get her over the top. (8) SCOTTISH CROSS has been very consistent for Allard and she'll likely be on the move early from this spot. (5) SHE WORE RED was a good second in her local debut to a runaway winner.

Race 7

(10) BRICKYARD TOOTS rallied too late last out and she gets one final chance this year to reach on time; Baynes trainee certainly is capable. (9) CRAZED N LINDY returns to a professional driver and will attract some attention. (2) TURTLE EXPRESS picks up Bartlett upon arrival from Saratoga but he needs to mind his manners.

Race 8

(3) SODY'S MOONSHINE jogged last week versus similar and should be able to repeat. (1) BACK TO THE WEST went evenly versus the top choice last out and should be able to hold position from this spot, with the other contenders on the far outside. (7) BETTOR DESIGN has been aggressively handled in all starts recently.

Race 9

(4) TOUCH THE ROCK ships from Saratoga in fine form and he looks like the best price of the logical contenders. (3) WAYNE THE LEFTY was a winner in his local return and he'll be favored to repeat. (1) AMASA AL gets needed post relief and should be right there late.

Race 10

(4) BABE'S I SCOOT steps up to face tougher but he was a solid winner in two straight off the Lance Hudson claim. (2) SEA STAR jogged from the pocket in his debut for Allard; obvious threat and likely favorite. (1) MAGIC MANNY has good speed and the best draw.

Race 11

(2) STOLEN CAR wasn't bad last week, having some late pace after getting shuffled; veteran may be rounding into form and deserves a long look from this inside post. (5) BACKUP A returns to Bartlett and fits well with these. (3) BEST DEAL YET N raced well with lesser here and returns off a win at Freehold.

Race 12

(4) RONNY BUGATTI has always had the class and the talent and now he looks back in good racing shape; I'll give him a shot in this competitive 2015 finale. (6) EL SHOOTER shipped east, joined the Burke barn and jogged in two straight at The Meadowlands; big threat. (1) DEMOCRACY N gets a free ride at this level after beating these last week.

 

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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (3rd) Take a Bow, 3-1
(7th) The Big Deluxe, 3-1

Fair Grounds (1st) Winds of Autumn, 4-1
(5th) Dewey's Sunshine, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Awe, 9-2
(4th) Heartofthetemple, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (7th) Lupo's Way, 9-2
(9th) Brass Compass, 7-2


Laurel Park (3rd) Thunder Lord, 8-1
(4th) Silver Bouquet, 3-1


Los Alamitos (4th) Player's Charm, 3-1
(8th) Vocalist, 9-2

Parx Racing (2nd) Brave Arrow, 7-2
(8th) Spirit of the Nite, 8-1

Remington Park (7th) McMullen County, 4-1
(8th) Penguini, 8-1

Turf Paradise (7th) Citizen Kitty, 6-1
(8th) Surf Queen, 9-2


Turfway Park (4th) Secrets of Summer, 3-1
(9th) Relentless Spirit, 3-1

 

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Sunday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 14 season record: 39-38-2

6) Steelers +2.5 (377)-- Bengals clinch division with a win here. .

5) Bills -1 (386)-- LeSean McCoy returns to Philly; interesting game.

4) Giants -1 (447)-- Big Blue has lost four games in last minute when they led.

3) Lions even (517)-- Detroit had extra prep time after LW's Thursday game.

2) Patriots -3 (532)-- People don't think NE will lose three in a row.

1) Seahawks -6.5 (962)-- Spread doubled after Clausen named starter.