Sunday 12/06/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Leroy's contest:

Steve Fezzik selected:

1. Denver Broncos/Kansas City Chiefs Over 38
2. Rutgers –1 1/2
3. Nebraska +14 1/2
4. Washington Redskins +9 1/2
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6
6. Minnesota Vikings -3

Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -3

Ken “The Shrink” Weitzner selected:

1. Denver Broncos/Kansas City Chiefs Over 38
2. Florida International -2
3. New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys Under 46
4. Texas/Nebraska Over 46
5. Jacksonville Jaguars PK
6. Arizona Wildcats +7

Best Bet: Cincinnati Bearcats -2

Thats strange, Fezzik used arizona in his hilton contest plays and minyy here.
Wonder which side he really likes?
 

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NFLCHOICE Sunday picks 12/6

NFL Bets for Sunday, December 6
Originally Updated 11/29 10:00 AM ET
# OF PLAYS = 8 (40% BANKROLL RISK)


WASHINGTON REDSKINS +10 (RISK 8.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

Line Note: If your book shows +9.5, then buy the 1/2 point. If your book shows +10, then buy the 1/2 point. Bottom line, don't get beat buy the hook, EVER.

Were not scared of betting against the big bad Saints here today at Washington. This is too many points to be laying against an improved Redskins team on their home field. Yes, the Skins are improving. They're now a perfect 3-0 ATS against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season and have played through a brutal schedule. The last 2 weeks losing by a combined 4 points could have easily been wins than losses.

This is a situational bet for us as the Saints are caught in a tight spot. They come off a HUGE win over New England on Monday night, a game that they had circled all season. All that emotion and preparation now gets left behind as they head into cold weather country to face the #1 pass defense in the NFL.

Drew Brees is an excellent QB, hands down. However, he has struggled against cold weather teams away from home. DREW BREES IS 0-5 SU IN COLD WEATHER GAMES WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS 45 DEGREES OR LOWER. The temperature today in Washington is currently 34 degrees and will not make it above 40. The field is going to be a cold stinging one that the Saints are not used to.

UPGRADE: The Washington Redskins will welcome All-Pro defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth back after he spent two weeks on the shelf with a sprained left ankle. This is huge in a game where the Saints have to adjust their game-plan against the best pass defense in the league. We see this one as more of a battle in the trenches, which plays into the favor of the Skins.

Bottom line, too many points here as the Redskins will burn the clock and play tough defense to keep the Saints in check. Take the points.


TENNESSEE TITANS +7 (RISK 6.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

Line Note: If your book shows +6.5, then buy the 1/2 point. If your book shows +7, then buy the 1/2 point. Bottom line, don't get beat buy the hook, EVER.

HUGE game here for the Titans and a possible turning point in the season. The Colts have clinched the playoffs and have less to lay for in this game. Simply put, the Titans need these game more than the Colts. Jeff Fisher was embarrassed by Peyton Manning earlier this year at home. As you know, we were on the Colts huge in that game as it was a situation that couldn't be passed up. This week we get Vince Young back in gear in what could be the most exciting game of the week. You must know, VY is now 9-0 his last nine games starting for the Titans and will likely make it 10-0 in this one today. Here is why...

The Colts got away with yet another one last week with a pick 6 off Matt Schaub and it could not have come at a worse time for the Texans. Houston let them off the hook up 14 points, but we don't expect for the Titans to do the same. Chris Johnson has been shredding defenses now that VY is back in the lineup. This is due to VY's ability to do damage on his feet and through the air. It creates a 2 headed monster in the backfield that is as dangerous as any tandem in the NFL.

The Colts play a Cover 2 here and that means this could be a BIG day for Chris Johnson. The Colts secondary is minus Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders, cornerback Marlin Jackson and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (check status). We will take CJ and VY over any secondary in the NFL right now, especially one that is gimped up as the Colts.

You may be holding your breath here with betting against the Colts. However, a quick check in the numbers shows us they are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 games. Even worse, the Colts are just 1-4 ATS at home this season. The Titans have been rolling and all the while making us some mula in the process cashing in on 4 consecutive games. The Titans are 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 points.

The TD here makes this an extremely valuable play as the Titans by all means should win outright.



DALLAS COWBOYS -1 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

Bottom line, the Giants are not getting it done this season as Eli Manning is hobbled with planters faciaitis and the defense is giving up big plays. In comes the red hot Cowboys and this is another recipe for disaster.

These two teams are going in different directions and this is a HUGE revenge game for Tony Romo and the Cowboys. The Giants waltzed in earlier this season to Big D and won a high scoring game where Romo was picked off 3 times in crucial points in the game. The Cowboys have been playing much better over the last month as a team and can get a nice lead in the division with a win here today.

Lay the small number as the Cowboys get a close win.



COWBOYS/GIANTS UNDER 46 (RISK 3%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

These two teams played high last time out, but this is a different point in the season. This is a cold weather game and the Giants offense has not been productive as it has in year's past. We expect a strong does of the running game and time consumption as the Giants attempt to keep the Cowboys off the field. Battle of the trenches in a big divisional game means low scores. TAKE THE UNDER.

Final Score = Cowboys 23-20


HOUSTON TEXANS -1.5 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

Going right back with the Texans this week as they find themselves in a MUST WIN situation AGAIN. They were on their way to a BIG win last week at Indy, but celebrated too early. Not going to happen this week. The Texans are 28-10 ATS off back-to-back losses and have now lost their last 3 in a row. This is also a revenge spot for the Texans with this season's earlier loss to the Jags.

We went against the jags last week as this is they have a terrible pass defense at 26th in the league. Not good news with the high powered Texans offense coming to town with revenge. Look for the Texans to get it done this week like they should have last week. Texans by 3.


ARIZONA CARDINALS +4 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

Line Note: Let's wait this one out as we should get more value as the day progresses. If your book shows +3.5 at game-time, then buy the 1/2 for insurance.

The Cardinals will get back Kurt Warner this week and that means this offense gets a huge boost at the right time. The Vikings seem like a no brainer in this one, however they are coming off a divisional win over the Bears and now travel into a different time zone to face a tough Cardinals team.

This seems to be the right time for a letdown in these Vikings who have just been shredding teams all season. They have a 3 game lead in the division and now face a remaining schedule with only 1 division opponent left. Look for the Vikings to slow down a bit this week as the Cardinals need this game more. Take the points.


CHICAGO BEARS -6 FIRST HALF (RISK 3.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

Up until last week our 1st half bets have been on. Fluke, yes it was a fluke. Last week Matt Ryan goes out in the first quarter and in comes backup Chris Redman - busted. That being said, were getting right back on the horse here as the Bears will come out firing in this game after losing 4 straight. The Rams are in the bottom rung of the league, and even though the bears have had it tough this season, their schedule is one the of the league's toughest.

We expect the Bears to come out in the first half of this game and completely handle the Rams. You have to understand, the weather is going to play a huge factor in favor of the Bears. The tops it will get in Chicago today will be 38 degrees which presents a problem for the Rams, a dome team. That's why they are 4-9 ATS when playing on a grass field the last 3 seasons.

Take the Bears first half.


CHICAGO BEARS -9.5 (RISK 3.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.

This is an additional play on the spread in this game We simply believe this is a very short number for a Bears team with home field advantage that has lost 4 consecutive games against teams in the upper echelon of the NFL. Against the bottom rung, the Bears have beaten soundly at home including a 24 point home win over the Lions and a 24 point win over the Browns. The Rams fall right into that spot and are playing their first game away from home in over a month. Throw in the fact this will be their first game of the season in cold temperatures, and this spell a recipe for disaster. Lay the points.


Good write up here, but never have heard of these guys,,anyone have their record?
 

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ATS Lock Club

8 NE -3
6 Houston -1
5 Tenn +7
4 Cinn -13


Can someone tell me where i can get NE -3
 

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The Sports Betting RX
12-1 NFL RUN


Jacksonville Jaguars -105




Pick Write-Up

Houston always seems to find a way to get out to the lead and then continues to find a way to blow it. �Today, in a must win for both teams our sources show a long list of heavy hitters centering their portfolio on Jacksonville today.

Look for the Jags running attack to eventually wear down the Texans and they'll get the job done at home!

Bet 1 unit on Jacksonville -105
 
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maximus ncaaf nfl get it here

Maximus

TAKE DETROIT TITANS -3 vs Cleveland State Vikings. This game is played at Calihan Hall on the campus of Detroit, and is scheduled to tip off at 1:05 PM EST.
EVALUATION: The Titans come in with a 5-2 SU & ATS record and have won all 3 games that have been played at Calihan Hall. Their 82.3 home scoring average is a pretty solid number, and they have only been letting up 70 points average on their home floor. Detroit has some major motivation in this game, since the Vikings beat them 3 times last year, 53-44 at Detroit, 49-66 at Cleveland St, and 43-56 in the conference tourney. The Vikings have had some really tough competition early with the likes of Kentucky, Virginia, and Wichita St, but we don’t see this as an advantage, since Detroit has played a couple of tough opponents themselves such as the defensive minded Depaul Blue Demons and the California Golden Bears. We like the 46% shooting percentage that Detroit has, and they average 6.1 more rebounds a game than the Vikings.
PROJECTION DETROIT 80 CLEVELAND ST 59 TAKE JAMES MADISON DUKES vs Georgia State Panthers. This game is played at JMU Center on James Madison’s campus and is scheduled to begin at 11am PST
EVALUATION: James Madison has a 4-2 SU record and is yet to lose on the home court of the JMU center, they have been averaging 68 points a game there and are only allowing 60 points avg. We like their 41.1% shooting percentage, but would like to see their Assist/Turnover Ratio get above the 1 mark, they are currently sitting at .9.
The Panthers are turning the ball over an average of 5.4 extra times than their assists, and they are only scoring 58 points a game average on the road. The Panthers have lost all 3 game on the road SU & ATS and we expect the same thing in this game with such a small spread.
PROJECTION JAMES MADISON 68 GEORGIA STATE 60
SOLIDS _____________________________Projection
WILLIAM & MARY +1 ½ vs VCU __________________WM & MARY 72-67
ST JOHNS +17 vs Duke _______________________________Duke 71-65


MONEYLINE
ST. BONAVENTURE +600 ____________________________St. Bonnie 73-66

HERE Then is the Late Card.

NCAA BB Late Selections after 4pm 12/05/09
LOCKS:
TAKE DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS +17 vs Vanderbilt Commodores. This is being played at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville, TN where the Commodores call home, and is scheduled to begin at 4pm EST.
EVALUATION: Both teams enter this game with a 5-1 SU mark, and have had a good start to the college basketball season. Vanderbilt has been having a good year so far, only dropping their opening round game in the **** Invitational to Cincinnati, they ended up as the consolation winner after beating Arizona 84-72. They came home with a tough fought win over a scrappy Missouri team, and now the Demons come a calling. Vandy likes an up tempo game averaging 80.7 points a game at home. Depaul on the other hand likes a slow and methodical game and only allows 54.8 points average per game which is 6th best in the NCAA DIV. 1 rankings. Depaul’s only loss has come to the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers where they dropped a tough fought battle as 19 ½ point dogs 53-57. This is going to be a war of wills, and we think Depaul’s will will win out, there 9.8 turnovers a game bodes well for a BLUE DEMONS cover.
PROJECTION: DEPAUL 57 VANDY 63
TAKE WASHINGTON ST COUGARS +9 vs Kansas St. Wildcats. This is being played in the Bramlage Coliseum on the campus of K-State and is scheduled to begin at 9pm EST.
EVALUATION: K-State and Wash-St. both come into this game with matching 6-1 straight up marks and each have been points up in bunches. Each team averages over 80 points a game, and each team averages opponents to a shade over 66 points a game. They both have played some pretty stiff competition with Wash St. playing in the Alaskan Shootout were awarded the championship, and K-State has played a stiff Dayton team, and a Top 25 Ole MISS team in which they dropped a 74-86 . We think the odds makers have not been giving the Cougars their just due, and until this changes, we think the Washinton St. Cougars have good value here.We think both teams are going to score in this game and score often, all stats in this game point to a very close game, and we would not be surprised to see the Cougars to pull the outright upset and win this game outright.
PROJECTION: WASHINGTON ST 75 KANSAS ST. 74
TAKE MURRAY ST RACERS -9 vs Morehead St Eagles. This is being played at the Regional Special Events Center on the campus of the Murray State, and is scheduled to begin at 8:30pm EST
EVALUATION: Murray State comes into this game with a 6-1 SU mark, and have been averaging over 81 points a game. They have been overpowering their weaker opponents, and besides a tough fought battle with Eastern Kentucky in which they won 62-60 they have been beating opponents by an average of 22.6 points a game. Morehead St is 2-3 SU on the season, and have lost to Kentucky, LA-Monroe, and Kent St., while beating sub par teams in Brescia and Tennesee Martin. We see the 83.3 points a game average of the Racers to hold up vs the Eagles weak 66.5 points a game on the road of the Eagles. Murray states 4 and 0 home record should move to 5-0 and we see them covering the spread here.
PROJECTION: MURRAY ST. 75 MOREHEAD ST. 61

SOLIDS:-----------------------------Projections:
Oregon +11 ½ vs Missouri ---------------------------------Missouri 72-70
Deleware +21 vs Old Dominion --------------------------Old Dominion 73-66
Charlotte +18.5 vs Louisville --------------------------------Louisville 77-67
Loyola- Chicago +10.5 vs Wisc-Milw --------------------Wisc-Milw 72-70
Jacksonville St -4.5 vs Tennessee Tech-----------------Jacksonville St 83-75
Eastern Illinois +7.5 vs Austin Peay ---------------------Austin Peay 75-74

MONEYLINE
FURMAN +155 ------------------------------------------------Furman 72-66
SACRAMENTO ST +235-----------------------------------------Sac St. 75-70


This is yesterdays card please post todays.:ohno:
 

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then why did fezz pick ARIZ in the Hilton contest ? he likes both sides

Is that all you do is cry like a bitch? Stop gambling. You have a problem. Handicap you own games and use this as information. Nobody make you bet these games
 

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Maximus

LOCKS:
TAKE FAIRFIELD STAGS +2 vs. Saint Peter Peacocks, this game is being played in the Yanitelli Center on the campus of St. Peter’s and is scheduled to begin at 2pm EST
EVALUATION: The Peacocks come into the match with a 3-3 SU record, and have been only averaging 58.3 points a game, and just over 40% shooting percentage. The only thing the Peacocks have in their favor in the game is their average score against ranks 18th among all NCAA D-1 schools. The Stags on the other hand are 5-2 SU and have won 3 of 4 after dropping a bad game with Maryland back on NOV 17th. They have put up over 70 points in every game, since the Maryland game. These two teams played twice last year, and won Fairfield one both of those games 75-68 on the St. Peters campus, and 76-58 at home. We think this will bode well for FAIRFIELD, and we think Fairfield not only covers, but wins the game outright.
PROJECTION: FAIRFIELD 65 St. Peters 59

TAKE ARIZONA WILDCATS +7 vs Oklahoma Sooners. This is being played at the Lloyd Noble Center at Oklahoma’s Campus and is scheduled to start at 7pm EST.
EVALUATION: The Loss of Blake Griffin to the NBA has really put a damper on the Sooners, and they have been playing sub-par opponents and only have a 4-3 SU record. Arizona just left the Maui Invitational where they beat Colorado, but lost to Vanderbilt and Wisconsin. Then they come home to face a tough UNLV squad in which they dropped a nailbiter. Arizona has played a much tougher schedule, and the caliber of opponents does not stack up. They can put up points in bunches, we think this will be a tight game all the way thru and we look at the Wildcats to cover the 7
PROJECTION: Oklahoma 73 Arizona 72

SOLIDS: --------------------------------------------------------------------Projection:
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL + 26 ½ vs Florida St -----------------Florida St. 76-61
VILLANOVA -1 vs Maryland --------------------------------------------Villanova 69-64
CS NORTHRIDGE + 18 ½ vs Washington----------------------------Washington 81-71

MONEYLINE
MIAMI- FL +130 ----------------------------------------------------------Miami 75-73
 

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he reshuffled his packages and anything 25* or higher is separate

Actually it isn't. Kyle just has a new long term subscription that will only provide the top plays when he has them. People buying today's card will still get the 25* play.
 

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sorry just posted
 

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