Please help! Can somebody listen to Football Jesus's podcast and tell me what the pick is? My computer for some reason wont play it.http://www.hot995.com/podcast/tobyknapp.xml
Sure Lang sucks pretty hard, but even a dog finds a bone every so often. His win percentage is less than you'd want from someone selling picks, but he isn't a 0% winner. At first I started reversing some of my plays because he was on them, but I quickly figured out that just like all cappers can't get every game they pick right, a bad capper won't pick every game wrong either.
Friday night for example, Lang was on Bowling Green and Utah State. I liked Bowling Green and Boise. Lang picking Utah secured my choice in taking Boise, but him having BG also didn't knock me off it because I still thought it was a good play.
i hear, this guy has just been getting his ass handed to him on all his big plays manSure Lang sucks pretty hard, but even a dog finds a bone every so often. His win percentage is less than you'd want from someone selling picks, but he isn't a 0% winner. At first I started reversing some of my plays because he was on them, but I quickly figured out that just like all cappers can't get every game they pick right, a bad capper won't pick every game wrong either.
Friday night for example, Lang was on Bowling Green and Utah State. I liked Bowling Green and Boise. Lang picking Utah secured my choice in taking Boise, but him having BG also didn't knock me off it because I still thought it was a good play.
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 490.5pt; BACKGROUND: white; mso-cellspacing: 2.2pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 3.75pt 3.75pt 3.75pt 3.75pt" class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width=654><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 0.75in; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 3.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; PADDING-LEFT: 3.75pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 3.75pt; HEIGHT: 0.75in; BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-TOP: 3.75pt" vAlign=top>I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 5% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice
></o
Game: Cleveland at Detroit (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 38 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)
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This one may be the ugliest game of the year and described by some as the Losers Bowl. Yes, I'm aware that the Browns offense has five TDs in their last 15 games, so let's get that out of the way first. It is hard to defend against that, but when you look at the roster of opponents in those 15 games, you can make a case that their offense isn't as horrible as it first appears. The Browns have faced Cincinnati three times, the Steelers twice, Baltimore twice, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Denver, Minnesota, Tennessee (last year's version at 13-3), and Philadelphia. That means in 13 of their 15 games, they were playing some of the top defenses in the league. The Browns' one win came in one of the two games they weren't playing over their head. They certainly won't be playing over their head in this one vs. a Lions’ team that has one win in their last 25 games. So as bad as Cleveland looks, they are likely not the worst team on the field today. The Browns played just four teams all of last year with a record of under .500 and in those games averaged 18 ppg. That is a far cry from the five total TDs in their last 15 (vs. 13 teams with winning records). This year through nine games, the Browns have faced just two opponents with a losing record and they are 1-1. That equals Detroit's win count in their last 25 games. The Lions have to be playing a bad team to be favored, and during this stretch of one win in 25 games, they have been favored three times and are 0-3 ATS. The Browns may be bad, but at least they have been bad against a lot of very good teams. The Lions have just been bad period and should not be favored. I like the Browns plus the 3.5. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns’ last 15 games have seen an average of just under 31 points per game scored, and neither of these teams have enough offense to take advantage of the others deficiencies on defense. After a big defensive effort where they allowed less than 150 passing yards, the Browns are 26-8 to the UNDER and the Lions have played five of their last six at home UNDER. Cleveland is 4-1 UNDER on thee road this season while Detroit is 3-1 UNDER at home. In games played in a dome, the Lions are 17-4 UNDER in their last 21. They are also 10-2 UNDER since last season after a double-digit loss. I like the Brownies in an ugly low-scoring game here.<o
<!--p-->Game: Seattle at Minnesota (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +11 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
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If there was ever a spot on the Vikings’ schedule to take a breather, this would be it. They are coming off of two division games, and have another one waiting in the wings next week. The Vikings are at 8-1 and have all but clinched the NFC North. The Seahawks, at 3-6 certainly aren't going to get their attention to "bring it" so to speak, this week. Seattle is 0-4 on the road and have not come within 11 points of anyone, so why would they come within 11 of one of the best two teams in the NFC? Because this is the NFL and this is where the money lies. For starters, 8-1 teams as a home double-digit favorite cover just 33% of the time, and have lost 33% of the time straight up! The Seahawks lost two games without Matt Hasselback at QB, so they aren't as crummy as the record looks. Hasselbeck is back in prime form having passed for over 300 yards in each of his last two games. The Seahawks have shown some guts as they have come back in their next game after allowing 30+ points to go 4-0 ATS. The Vikings simply are not a top-notch big chalk team. The last 13 times they have been favored by 10.5 or more, they are a woeful 1-11-1 ATS. They really have been a poor home team against the number as well. This year they are 4-0 straight-up at home but just 1-3 ATS. Going back to last season, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games! Minnesota is getting a lot of love right now based on their record and coming off a game in which they won by 17 points, allowing just 10 to the Lions. But, under Brad Childress, the Vikings are just 3-12 ATS after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points. I like the Seahawks to hang closer than this line.<o
<!--p-->Game: Indianapolis at Baltimore (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Indianapolis -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
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The Colts appear to be a team of destiny this year. They haven't lost a game in over a year (18 games) and turned a sure loss into a win last week in New England. Peyton Manning is having one of his best years ever and that is saying a lot. Winning has been ingrained here and this team expects and wants to win every single one. That mindset is paying dividends. Manning leads the league in completion percent (70%), passing yards (2872) and touchdowns (20). He has a 104.2 passer rating (third best in the league). He's only been sacked eight times on the entire season - less than once per game. Baltimore's defense has looked good the last three games, but that includes games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Denver. Cleveland can't score, Kyle Orton has really struggled of late, and Cincinnati is winning on defense, not offense. Against good offenses and quarterbacks, Baltimore has been lit up this season. They gave up 26 points to Phillip Rivers, 27 to Tom Brady, and 33 to Brett Favre. Baltimore's defense is still thought of by many to be dominant but they really are not. I expect Manning to find success. Joe Flacco has proven himself a very good quarterback and the Ravens have given him a much larger share of the load. But, Indy is 9-2 straight-up the past three seasons vs. QBs that complete 64%+ of their passes. The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games and they have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Ravens. Even when the Raven's defense was one of the best in the NFL, Manning and the Colts averaged 26 ppg in those contests. Now with Baltimore's defense having slipped, and Indy playing better than anyone, why not expect another Colts win here? Baltimore is 2-7 straight-up the past three seasons vs. teams at .750 or better and they have lost 33 of their last 49 games vs. teams that allow 17 or fewere points per game. Finally, Indy is 10-1 straight-up since last season after an ATS loss. I like the Colts here.<o
<!--p-->Game: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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It has become a given that the New Orleans Saints games are going to be played against heavily "taxed" totals on the plus side, and no surprise here to see this one pushing over 50. There is an elongated history in the NFL that points to bias regarding high totals in a certain range, and this one is within that threshold. The bias points to totals that are set too high, because the public loves offensive teams and OVERs, and that certainly fits the bill here. Last week New Orleans played to the OVER (thanks to a special teams touchdown). Tampa Bay's anemic offense has caught some fire under Josh Freeman. But the scores are a bit misleading. The reality is 417 yards in two games with two INTs, doesn't show that to be the difference.. So the two games fresh in the minds of the public offset the seven games of averaging 13+ a game? The stats don't say it. The Bucs offense is averaging 276.3 yards per game, and with Freeman at QB in the last two, they have scored 61 points. But the yards average is just about the same at 290.5 (14 yards per game better). Hardly anything that says the Tampa Bay offense is rolling! The Bucs have played eight of their last eleven against a winning team to the UNDER. New Orleans is just 50% over/under this season in division games (which tend to be tighter, harder fought battles). I like this one to go UNDER.<o
<!--p-->Game: Buffalo at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +9 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
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The Buffalo Bills are looking for a change. They fired coach Dick Juaron and elevated Ryan Fitzpatrick to the starter at QB. The Bills will likely be going to the run a lot in this game as Jacksonville ranks just No. 22 against the run and Fred Jackson has had a premier year. If the Bills can get the running game going and shorten the game, nine points will be hard for Jacksonville to overcome as they are likely to employ the same strategy against the Bills who have also had trouble stopping the run. The Bills secondary has made a lot of big plays this season, so the vulnerability here is against the run. This line is predicated on what happened last week. The Bills were torched by a Titans team that is getting its act together after a horrendous start, and the Jags have won two straight. The reality remains that the Jags are a team barely over .500 that has a sub-.500 ATS mark and an 8-17 ATS record dating back to last season. Over that span they are 1-10 ATS as a favorite! So, 9 points here is too much. To put it in perspective, the league’s worst team, the St. Louis Rams, came in here as a 9.5 point underdog and here we have the Bills at +9. The oddsmakers are saying the Bills and Rams are on equal footing? It also should be noted it took the Jags OT to get past the Rams and their two-game winning streak is comprised of wins by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. That means that the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! Hardly a team deserving of such a lofty pointspread. The Bills have covered six of their last eight on the road, while the Jags have struggled to a 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 at home. Too many points here, I'll go with the Bills.<o
<!--p-->Game: Atlanta at New York Giants (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +7 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
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This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could be in big trouble. The Giants opened the season with five straight wins, but have suddenly dropped four in a row. They own four of their five wins vs. teams that have a combined record of 8-28, so the jury is still out on just how good this team really is. The proof may be in the fact that this Giants team has allowed just 40 points in four games vs. losing teams (10 points per game), but they have been torched for 32.8 ppg in their five games against winning teams. New York's running game has not been as lethal this season, as in seasons' past. They are still gaining a respectable 4.37 yards per carry, but that pales in contrast to the potent land attack they had a year ago when they produced over five yards a pop. That has put QB Eli Manning in more situations of third and long. It has also shown itself in the interception department as Eli threw just 10 picks all last year and this year he has thrown eight already. The Giants No. 1 defensive ranking in yards allowed is misleading as they rank just No. 21 in the league in points allowed - worse than Atlanta. The Falcons have played their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 10-1 ATS, and I would expect their "A" game here which they have brought every time after a loss. This has been a road-dominated series over the years with the road team collecting the cash in the last seven, and that includes Atlanta getting the money in the last four played in New York. My computer matchup for this game has Atlanta keeping this one close. I agree that they will keep it close, and may even win.<o
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I didn't read the whole post but it has unfactual statements about the VIkings home ATS.. They have covered twice at home.. Packers and Lions..
actually those 16 rated plays were his nfl plays, he's had college too
Budin is 10-10 this year in NFL and NCAA combined. This is a fact. 8-8 in NFL, and 2-2 in NCAAF. You can all continue to speculate all you want with 10 people all throwing out different records but 10-10 is the correct one. I follow all his plays and have them documented in Excel. Take this info as you wish. :toast:
P.S. Budin has himself down 45 Dimes but for me personally it is more than that because of how ridiculous some of the juice on his plays have been
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