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Sunday 10/15/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:01 PM EASTERN POST
The Matron Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE
#3 HAPPY LIKE A FOOL
#5 HONEY GRAEME
#2 TAKE CHARGE PAULA
#4 VALUABLE PACKAGE
Well folks ... this race has an interesting "history!" Before 1902, it was run in two divisions, one for fillies and one for colts. After 1915, it was restricted to fillies. The inaugural race took place at Morris Park Racecourse in The Bronx, New York where it remained until 1905 when it was moved to the new Belmont Park. Through special arrangements, in 1910 it was hosted by Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. Aqueduct Racetrack hosted the race in 1960 and again from 1962 to 1968. Here in the 102nd running of this graded stakes test ... #3 HAPPY LIKE A FOOL qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," has excellent early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her three career starts to date, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "fist asking." #5 HONEY GRAEME has hit the board in both of her two career starts to date, also breaking her maiden in her "first asking," however kindly note that neither of these "board hits" met my criteria to be tabbed as a "POWER RUN."
RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:01 PM EASTERN POST
The Matron Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE
#3 HAPPY LIKE A FOOL
#5 HONEY GRAEME
#2 TAKE CHARGE PAULA
#4 VALUABLE PACKAGE
Well folks ... this race has an interesting "history!" Before 1902, it was run in two divisions, one for fillies and one for colts. After 1915, it was restricted to fillies. The inaugural race took place at Morris Park Racecourse in The Bronx, New York where it remained until 1905 when it was moved to the new Belmont Park. Through special arrangements, in 1910 it was hosted by Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. Aqueduct Racetrack hosted the race in 1960 and again from 1962 to 1968. Here in the 102nd running of this graded stakes test ... #3 HAPPY LIKE A FOOL qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," has excellent early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her three career starts to date, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "fist asking." #5 HONEY GRAEME has hit the board in both of her two career starts to date, also breaking her maiden in her "first asking," however kindly note that neither of these "board hits" met my criteria to be tabbed as a "POWER RUN."
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Century Downs - Race #3 - Post: 1:48pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 50
Rating: 4
#6 FOREST SONG (ML=2/1)
FOREST SONG - When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after her last outing, it generally means she's fit. I like the fact that this filly's last speed fig, 45, is tops in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DREAMING EZ (ML=8/5), #5 KINTSUGI KAT (ML=5/2), #4 WILD WILKO (ML=8/1),
DREAMING EZ - Doesn't seem to be in a cozy situation this time around. KINTSUGI KAT - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with M/L odds of 5/2. Doubtful for this participant to do much running with no recent success in a sprint race. WILD WILKO - This filly likely won't be right there at the finish.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FOREST SONG - One of the class angles that my good buddy Solo and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This pony is in the top spot in my book.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #6 FOREST SONG to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Bar
Century Downs - Race #3 - Post: 1:48pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 50
Rating: 4
#6 FOREST SONG (ML=2/1)
FOREST SONG - When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after her last outing, it generally means she's fit. I like the fact that this filly's last speed fig, 45, is tops in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DREAMING EZ (ML=8/5), #5 KINTSUGI KAT (ML=5/2), #4 WILD WILKO (ML=8/1),
DREAMING EZ - Doesn't seem to be in a cozy situation this time around. KINTSUGI KAT - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with M/L odds of 5/2. Doubtful for this participant to do much running with no recent success in a sprint race. WILD WILKO - This filly likely won't be right there at the finish.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FOREST SONG - One of the class angles that my good buddy Solo and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This pony is in the top spot in my book.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #6 FOREST SONG to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Gulfstream Park West - Race #2 - Post: 1:48pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 59
Rating: 4
#4 CHANTILLY LILLY (ML=2/1)
CHANTILLY LILLY - Filly looks like the lone speed here. She may turn the race into a procession. Was in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race at Gulfstream Park last time out. That event had a class rating of 67 and she is moving down in this race. A certain serious competitor. The 42 recent race fig looks good in black and white.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TRAPPE ME LATER (ML=3/1), #1 RETHINKME (ML=7/2), #3 EVERYDAY ICE (ML=4/1),
TRAPPE ME LATER - Don't think that this filly has value at 3/1 in today's event. RETHINKME - Tough to bet on any horse in a sprint event at 7/2 when she hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last 60 days. Garnered a quite unimpressive speed fig last race out in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race on Sep 28th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. EVERYDAY ICE - The eighth place finish position in the last event was not the greatest. Will probably be way back with too much to do down the homestretch.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 CHANTILLY LILLY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Bar
Gulfstream Park West - Race #2 - Post: 1:48pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 59
Rating: 4
#4 CHANTILLY LILLY (ML=2/1)
CHANTILLY LILLY - Filly looks like the lone speed here. She may turn the race into a procession. Was in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race at Gulfstream Park last time out. That event had a class rating of 67 and she is moving down in this race. A certain serious competitor. The 42 recent race fig looks good in black and white.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TRAPPE ME LATER (ML=3/1), #1 RETHINKME (ML=7/2), #3 EVERYDAY ICE (ML=4/1),
TRAPPE ME LATER - Don't think that this filly has value at 3/1 in today's event. RETHINKME - Tough to bet on any horse in a sprint event at 7/2 when she hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last 60 days. Garnered a quite unimpressive speed fig last race out in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race on Sep 28th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. EVERYDAY ICE - The eighth place finish position in the last event was not the greatest. Will probably be way back with too much to do down the homestretch.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 CHANTILLY LILLY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
The Walker Group at Keeneland
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 89
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 1 PRIVATE TIME 4/1
# 5 WHATEVERYBODYWANTS 2/1
# 2 BOXER BOY 8/1
I think PRIVATE TIME is a competitive choice. Has to be carefully examined against this field displaying decent figs recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 88 under similar conditions. Looks very strong versus this field and ought to be one of the early speedsters. Could beat this field given the 88 Equibase Speed Figure put up in his last outing. WHATEVERYBODYWANTS - Have to bet on this gelding with the solid earnings per start in dirt route contests. Is hard not to examine given the company run in lately. BOXER BOY - Recently Anderson has provided wagerers with a very good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt route races.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 89
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 1 PRIVATE TIME 4/1
# 5 WHATEVERYBODYWANTS 2/1
# 2 BOXER BOY 8/1
I think PRIVATE TIME is a competitive choice. Has to be carefully examined against this field displaying decent figs recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 88 under similar conditions. Looks very strong versus this field and ought to be one of the early speedsters. Could beat this field given the 88 Equibase Speed Figure put up in his last outing. WHATEVERYBODYWANTS - Have to bet on this gelding with the solid earnings per start in dirt route contests. Is hard not to examine given the company run in lately. BOXER BOY - Recently Anderson has provided wagerers with a very good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt route races.
The Walker Group at Laurel
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 80
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, FOR EACH $4,000 TO $32,000 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 8 BROWN PAPER 20/1
# 10 HOT FRIESIA 10/1
# 11 HOLIDAY PRAYER 8/1
BROWN PAPER looks very good to best this group of horses in this race especially at 20/1. Look for a quite good pace improvement from this racer who enters with second time Lasix today. Toledo has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 17 percent rate. Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. HOLIDAY PRAYER - She looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. This filly ought to be considered just off the earnings per start in turf route contests alone.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 80
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, FOR EACH $4,000 TO $32,000 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 8 BROWN PAPER 20/1
# 10 HOT FRIESIA 10/1
# 11 HOLIDAY PRAYER 8/1
BROWN PAPER looks very good to best this group of horses in this race especially at 20/1. Look for a quite good pace improvement from this racer who enters with second time Lasix today. Toledo has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 17 percent rate. Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. HOLIDAY PRAYER - She looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. This filly ought to be considered just off the earnings per start in turf route contests alone.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
Woodbine - Race 5
Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 2 • CR: 77 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 3:16P
FOR ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MISGUIDED PASSION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LADY WITH CLASS: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EESTI STAR: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. WORL DS YOUR OYSTER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4
MISGUIDED PASSION
4/1
9/2
7
LADY WITH CLASS
6/1
5/1
2
EESTI STAR
7/2
6/1
3
WORLDS YOUR OYSTER
12/1
10/1
Woodbine - Race 5
Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 2 • CR: 77 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 3:16P
FOR ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MISGUIDED PASSION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LADY WITH CLASS: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EESTI STAR: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. WORL DS YOUR OYSTER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4
MISGUIDED PASSION
4/1
9/2
7
LADY WITH CLASS
6/1
5/1
2
EESTI STAR
7/2
6/1
3
WORLDS YOUR OYSTER
12/1
10/1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA
ZIA - Race 9
$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 1st Half Late $2 Daily Double 2nd Leg Pick 3/ 3rd Leg Pick 4
Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 85 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 3:46P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NIEVES DE ENERO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. RANDYS MIRACLE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CD MIGHTY HANDSOME: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. FLASH PHENOMENON: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. DANTES CORONA : Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
12
NIEVES DE ENERO
12/1
4/1
7
RANDYS MIRACLE
9/2
7/1
10
CD MIGHTY HANDSOME
10/1
8/1
1
FLASH PHENOMENON
5/2
9/1
8
DANTES CORONA
6/1
10/1
ZIA - Race 9
$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 1st Half Late $2 Daily Double 2nd Leg Pick 3/ 3rd Leg Pick 4
Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 85 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 3:46P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NIEVES DE ENERO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. RANDYS MIRACLE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CD MIGHTY HANDSOME: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. FLASH PHENOMENON: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. DANTES CORONA : Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
12
NIEVES DE ENERO
12/1
4/1
7
RANDYS MIRACLE
9/2
7/1
10
CD MIGHTY HANDSOME
10/1
8/1
1
FLASH PHENOMENON
5/2
9/1
8
DANTES CORONA
6/1
10/1
