Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Detroit Lions +12
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: QB Matthew Stafford is officially day-to-day after suffering a right knee injury Sunday. The Lions would not confirm reports he suffered a dislocated or partially dislocated kneecap. When asked after whether he thought he could play against the Steelers, Staffords response was: "Not really into hypotheticals, but I think I could give it a go." Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson were hot in the first half last week, connecting five times for 119 yards. Stafford went 24-for-36 for 296 yards and a touchdown. Over the past three games, the Lions have outscored their opponents 44-28 in the first half, but have been outscored 61-12 in the second half, so I'm expecting a better all around effort as coach Jim Schwartz called his teams performance in the second half of last week's game vs. Chicago, "a complete disaster". On the other side of the field: After a couple of losses, the Steelers rebounded last week with a better performance against the Chargers; however, after shutting down San Diego for nearly three quarters, the pass defense had a meltdown and allowed 254 yards by Philip Rivers, who completed 21 of 36 with three TDs. The Steelers sacked him three times, but Rivers threw no INT's. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS its last five overall and is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Detroit always plays Pittsburgh tough and is an above average 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. the defending champs; when taking all of these factors into consideration I have to recommend a play on the large home dog!
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Detroit Lions +12
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: QB Matthew Stafford is officially day-to-day after suffering a right knee injury Sunday. The Lions would not confirm reports he suffered a dislocated or partially dislocated kneecap. When asked after whether he thought he could play against the Steelers, Staffords response was: "Not really into hypotheticals, but I think I could give it a go." Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson were hot in the first half last week, connecting five times for 119 yards. Stafford went 24-for-36 for 296 yards and a touchdown. Over the past three games, the Lions have outscored their opponents 44-28 in the first half, but have been outscored 61-12 in the second half, so I'm expecting a better all around effort as coach Jim Schwartz called his teams performance in the second half of last week's game vs. Chicago, "a complete disaster". On the other side of the field: After a couple of losses, the Steelers rebounded last week with a better performance against the Chargers; however, after shutting down San Diego for nearly three quarters, the pass defense had a meltdown and allowed 254 yards by Philip Rivers, who completed 21 of 36 with three TDs. The Steelers sacked him three times, but Rivers threw no INT's. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS its last five overall and is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Detroit always plays Pittsburgh tough and is an above average 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. the defending champs; when taking all of these factors into consideration I have to recommend a play on the large home dog!
Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK FREEHOLD, NEW JERSEY WISE GUYS
25 Dime Release
Carolina
Note: This line, as I release this play on Friday evening, has consistently been 3 1/2 all week. If that's your price, after shopping around, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to make Carolina -3 so you get the push should the Panthers only win by a field goal.
If the line moves to 4, I would suggest you still buy down to -3 1/2 because of the tendency of games to finish with a final margin of four points.
Updated note from Steve as of Saturday night:
Offshore I see some movement to -4 1/2. Again, you would buy down the 1/2 point to -4 if this is the line you get after shopping around.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
ty cork.
Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK FREEHOLD, NEW JERSEY WISE GUYS
25 Dime Release
Carolina
Note: This line, as I release this play on Friday evening, has consistently been 3 1/2 all week. If that's your price, after shopping around, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to make Carolina -3 so you get the push should the Panthers only win by a field goal.
If the line moves to 4, I would suggest you still buy down to -3 1/2 because of the tendency of games to finish with a final margin of four
points.
Updated note from Steve as of Saturday night:
Offshore I see some movement to -4 1/2. Again, you would buy down the 1/2 point to -4 if this is the line you get after shopping around.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
Thanks Cork... D<><>
Allen Eastman (ACE-ACE) picks
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$2500.00 Take #419 New England (-3) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
only game that is a part of the "99 system". Bill Belichick has just dominated his former coaches. He beat up on Eric Mangini when Mangini was with the Jets and Romeo Crennel when Crennel was with the Browns. Now he is going to beat up on Josh McDaniels. I think that the Broncos are in a bit of a letdown spot after barely beating Dallas at home last week. Denver is 4-0 but they still haven’t played the quality of schedule that would make them a serious threat. The Patriots only have one loss and that was against a very good Jets team. But other than that, the Patriots have played some of the better teams in the league like Atlanta and Baltimore. They are going to be very focused for this game because you know that Belichick wants to beat his former pupil. New England always struggled out in Denver. But that was against Mike Shanahan. Shanahan had a very strong system and he was able to find the weakness in New England’s armor. But McDaniels is basically trying to run the same offense and the same system that he ran when he was in New England. I will take Tom Brady over Kyle Orton and I think that the Patriots will take care of business once again. New England is 36-16-1 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS as a favorite.
$200.00 Take #405 Washington (+3.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
I think that this is a very sharp play for us. It seems like everyone is on Carolina this week. But I don’t understand why. The Panthers have gotten blown out in all of their games this year and I don’t think that they are a very good team right now. A lot of people are down on the Redskins because they haven’t been blowing out the bad teams. But their offense isn’t built that way. This is a team that wants to keep the score low, run the ball, and win close games. So far they have been pretty good at doing that. I think that Washington will be able to stop the Carolina run but I don’t think that Carolina can slow down Clinton Portis and the Redskins rushing attack. This will be a close game and getting points with the better team is too good to pass up.
$800.00#418 San Francisco (-2.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
San Francisco has been dominating so far at home this year and they are one miracle Favre pass away from being undefeated. Atlanta is coming off a bye week but I think they are going to have a hard time getting back into the flow against a very big, very physical Niners team. San Francisco was able to shut down Adrian Peterson two weeks ago in Minnesota and I think that they are going to shut down Michael Turner, who has not been as strong for the Falcons this season. All the Niners have done since Singletary has taken over is win games. They are 4-0 ATS this year and they are now 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games since Singletary has taken over. The oddsmakers are giving us a gift here at 2.5 instead of 3.0, but I don’t think it will matter. I like the Niners to get another double-digit win at home and we will collect in the process.
$2000.00 Take #425 Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
People are just having too much trouble accepting the fact that Tennessee isn’t very good this year. This is not the same team that went 13-3 in the regular season in 2008 but the betting public just can’t admit it. Well, we will keep collecting on Peyton Manning, who has been as sharp as any quarterback in the league. Tennessee didn’t even show up last week against Jacksonville and it was shocking to see a Jeff Fisher team play with no passion like that. They should be getting at least a touchdown from an Indianapolis team that has already notched impressive road wins at Miami and at Arizona, two playoff teams from last year that are also struggling. It’s never a bad idea to put your money on Peyton Manning and we will do it again this week.
$300.00 Take #428 Miami (+2) over New York Jets (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
How about another big Monday Night Football winner! Everyone loves the Jets right now and I expect that the public will keep pounding them now that they traded for Braylon Edwards. Not us. Miami has played well for three straight weeks but just doesn’t have the wins to show for it. This is also their second Monday Night Football game already this year and I think that it will be less of a distraction and be a big advantage for them. The Jets were physically beaten in New Orleans last week and I think that they have lost a little bit of their swagger. Miami is one of the more physical teams in the NFL and I think that they will be able to stop the run and make Mark Sanchez beat them. So far he hasn’t proven to this capper that he can do that.
Hou+5.5.......................................$200 .00
Teaser
Hos +15.5
SF+7.5
MIA +11.........................................$200.0 0
MY hilton picks
NE
IND
SF
HOU
MIA
15-5 2ND PLAY
IN THE TOP 40 ONLY 3 OF US ARE ON MIA 11 ON NYJ!! THATS WHAT i LIKE TO SEE
BEST TO ALL
ACE
__________________
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$2500.00 Take #419 New England (-3) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
only game that is a part of the "99 system". Bill Belichick has just dominated his former coaches. He beat up on Eric Mangini when Mangini was with the Jets and Romeo Crennel when Crennel was with the Browns. Now he is going to beat up on Josh McDaniels. I think that the Broncos are in a bit of a letdown spot after barely beating Dallas at home last week. Denver is 4-0 but they still haven’t played the quality of schedule that would make them a serious threat. The Patriots only have one loss and that was against a very good Jets team. But other than that, the Patriots have played some of the better teams in the league like Atlanta and Baltimore. They are going to be very focused for this game because you know that Belichick wants to beat his former pupil. New England always struggled out in Denver. But that was against Mike Shanahan. Shanahan had a very strong system and he was able to find the weakness in New England’s armor. But McDaniels is basically trying to run the same offense and the same system that he ran when he was in New England. I will take Tom Brady over Kyle Orton and I think that the Patriots will take care of business once again. New England is 36-16-1 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS as a favorite.
$200.00 Take #405 Washington (+3.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
I think that this is a very sharp play for us. It seems like everyone is on Carolina this week. But I don’t understand why. The Panthers have gotten blown out in all of their games this year and I don’t think that they are a very good team right now. A lot of people are down on the Redskins because they haven’t been blowing out the bad teams. But their offense isn’t built that way. This is a team that wants to keep the score low, run the ball, and win close games. So far they have been pretty good at doing that. I think that Washington will be able to stop the Carolina run but I don’t think that Carolina can slow down Clinton Portis and the Redskins rushing attack. This will be a close game and getting points with the better team is too good to pass up.
$800.00#418 San Francisco (-2.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
San Francisco has been dominating so far at home this year and they are one miracle Favre pass away from being undefeated. Atlanta is coming off a bye week but I think they are going to have a hard time getting back into the flow against a very big, very physical Niners team. San Francisco was able to shut down Adrian Peterson two weeks ago in Minnesota and I think that they are going to shut down Michael Turner, who has not been as strong for the Falcons this season. All the Niners have done since Singletary has taken over is win games. They are 4-0 ATS this year and they are now 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games since Singletary has taken over. The oddsmakers are giving us a gift here at 2.5 instead of 3.0, but I don’t think it will matter. I like the Niners to get another double-digit win at home and we will collect in the process.
$2000.00 Take #425 Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
People are just having too much trouble accepting the fact that Tennessee isn’t very good this year. This is not the same team that went 13-3 in the regular season in 2008 but the betting public just can’t admit it. Well, we will keep collecting on Peyton Manning, who has been as sharp as any quarterback in the league. Tennessee didn’t even show up last week against Jacksonville and it was shocking to see a Jeff Fisher team play with no passion like that. They should be getting at least a touchdown from an Indianapolis team that has already notched impressive road wins at Miami and at Arizona, two playoff teams from last year that are also struggling. It’s never a bad idea to put your money on Peyton Manning and we will do it again this week.
$300.00 Take #428 Miami (+2) over New York Jets (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
How about another big Monday Night Football winner! Everyone loves the Jets right now and I expect that the public will keep pounding them now that they traded for Braylon Edwards. Not us. Miami has played well for three straight weeks but just doesn’t have the wins to show for it. This is also their second Monday Night Football game already this year and I think that it will be less of a distraction and be a big advantage for them. The Jets were physically beaten in New Orleans last week and I think that they have lost a little bit of their swagger. Miami is one of the more physical teams in the NFL and I think that they will be able to stop the run and make Mark Sanchez beat them. So far he hasn’t proven to this capper that he can do that.
Hou+5.5.......................................$200 .00
Teaser
Hos +15.5
SF+7.5
MIA +11.........................................$200.0 0
MY hilton picks
NE
IND
SF
HOU
MIA
15-5 2ND PLAY
IN THE TOP 40 ONLY 3 OF US ARE ON MIA 11 ON NYJ!! THATS WHAT i LIKE TO SEE
BEST TO ALL
ACE
__________________
st bernadine sports advisors
everyone must be sleeping in today only one dude posted so far.
lillefty = 1* la angels +130 over the red sox
This is hard to write as I am looking for the sox to swept out of the playoffs by the white hot angels. Kazmir has always pitched well vs the sox. Combine that with the way he as pitched since coming over from Tampa(1.91 era) and it just doesn't look good for my sox. Buchholz looked pretty shaky the last 2 starts. He gave up 5 homers to Toronto. Overall he has allowed 13 ER in his last 8 inn to 2 teams clearly just playing out the string. The sox offense is hitting .129 in this series. We have seen the sox do this before where they look awful on the road in the playoffs and then come home and completely change everything around. I don't believe that will be the case today as usually the turnaround happens with a Beckett or Pedro on the mound, not a rook making his 1st postseason start. Take the angels to complete the sweep at plus $$$. Those looking for more than MLB , I have 3 NFL plays that I like a lot
if the others post before I go out to watch the sox I will get em here
Let's cash!!
ZAGS
everyone must be sleeping in today only one dude posted so far.
lillefty = 1* la angels +130 over the red sox
This is hard to write as I am looking for the sox to swept out of the playoffs by the white hot angels. Kazmir has always pitched well vs the sox. Combine that with the way he as pitched since coming over from Tampa(1.91 era) and it just doesn't look good for my sox. Buchholz looked pretty shaky the last 2 starts. He gave up 5 homers to Toronto. Overall he has allowed 13 ER in his last 8 inn to 2 teams clearly just playing out the string. The sox offense is hitting .129 in this series. We have seen the sox do this before where they look awful on the road in the playoffs and then come home and completely change everything around. I don't believe that will be the case today as usually the turnaround happens with a Beckett or Pedro on the mound, not a rook making his 1st postseason start. Take the angels to complete the sweep at plus $$$. Those looking for more than MLB , I have 3 NFL plays that I like a lot
if the others post before I go out to watch the sox I will get em here
Let's cash!!
ZAGS
