Free NFL pick from: Robert Ferringo
Take #211 Detroit (+10) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 4)
I know that the expectation is for the Lions to roll back over after picking up their first win since 2007. However, this is been a pretty spry Detroit club so far this year. New Orleans outgunned them but they also leapt out to a 10-0 lead on Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bears are coming off their second straight last-second victory and could suffer a bit of a letdown in this spot against an inferior opponent. Chicago’s secondary is still a bit spotty and I think that the Lions will be able to move the ball through the air. Further, the Bears offense is averaging just 19 points per game while the defense has surrendered an average of 18 points per game. All three of Chicago’s games have been decided by less than a touchdown and I think that covering a fat number like this is a lot to ask. Chicago is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite and 5-16-2 ATS following a win.
Take #211 Detroit (+10) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 4)
I know that the expectation is for the Lions to roll back over after picking up their first win since 2007. However, this is been a pretty spry Detroit club so far this year. New Orleans outgunned them but they also leapt out to a 10-0 lead on Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bears are coming off their second straight last-second victory and could suffer a bit of a letdown in this spot against an inferior opponent. Chicago’s secondary is still a bit spotty and I think that the Lions will be able to move the ball through the air. Further, the Bears offense is averaging just 19 points per game while the defense has surrendered an average of 18 points per game. All three of Chicago’s games have been decided by less than a touchdown and I think that covering a fat number like this is a lot to ask. Chicago is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite and 5-16-2 ATS following a win.
Free NFL pick from Doc's Sports
#112 Take Kansas City over New York (Sunday 1 pm Fox)
If the Chiefs have any pride whatsoever, they will not let the Giants blow them out this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. No question that the Giants have better players then the Chiefs, but this is a statement game for KC. This is their second home game and their first did not go as planned, getting beat by their rivals, the Oakland Raiders. They have played a brutal schedule thus far in 2009 with road games against Baltimore and Philadelphia. I expect them to keep this a low scoring game that is close for 60 minutes. This will be the second straight long travel road game for the Giants and asking them to cover a spread this big in just not in the cards. Play the home dog and watch your money grow.
#112 Take Kansas City over New York (Sunday 1 pm Fox)
If the Chiefs have any pride whatsoever, they will not let the Giants blow them out this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. No question that the Giants have better players then the Chiefs, but this is a statement game for KC. This is their second home game and their first did not go as planned, getting beat by their rivals, the Oakland Raiders. They have played a brutal schedule thus far in 2009 with road games against Baltimore and Philadelphia. I expect them to keep this a low scoring game that is close for 60 minutes. This will be the second straight long travel road game for the Giants and asking them to cover a spread this big in just not in the cards. Play the home dog and watch your money grow.
NFL WRITE-UP
Week 4
Sunday, October 5
Raiders (1-2) @ Texans (1-2)-- Road team won Texans' first three games, as Houston lost both home tilts, 24-7/31-24, after losing goal-line fumble late in Jaguar loss- they struggle to stop the run, allowing 190-240-184 yards in first three games. Foes converted 50% on third down in first three games. Russell is horrible as Oakland's QB, completing 19 of 45 passes for just 141 yards the last two games. Raiders covered six of last nine as road underdog- they're 9-16 vs spread as non-division road dog since 2003. Texans won two of last three against the Raiders, with all three of those games played in Oakland.
Titans (0-3) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Third road game in four weeks for a Tennessee squad that is 0-3 and desperate; they've outrushed foes 353-182, usually good indicator of success, but they turned ball over twice in kicking game last week, and have eight turnovers in three games (-3). Titans are also just 13-38 on third down, which contributes to them losing field position battle by 11-8-14 yards in three losses. Jags don't have much of home field edge- they're the only NFL team that won't sell out any of their home games. Road team is 6-4 in last ten series games. Titans 3-2 in last five visits here, winning last two, 13-10/24-14.
Ravens (3-0) @ Patriots (2-1)-- Red-hot Baltimore scored 38-31-34 points in first three wins, scoring 13 TDs on 32 drives; they've picked off six passes in last two games, have outrushed opponents 470-153, but they've played both Chiefs, Browns, two awful teams. Patriots ran ball for 168 yards vs Atlanta last week; they only have three takeaways (+1) and are really struggling in the red zone, with one TD, seven FGs on last RZ eight drives. They've converted 18 of 34 on 3rd down in their two wins, 5-15 in their loss. Pats are 14-18-1 in last 33 games as home favorite. Ravens covered six of last eight as underdogs.
Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (0-3)-- Can Bengals back up huge win vs Pitt with a win vs hapless Browns, who have one TD on 32 drives this year, outrushed 553-214 with a minus-7 turnover ratio? Cincy is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning three of last four here- they shut Browns out in last two wins here, lost 51-45 here in '07. Palmer makes huge difference for Bengals; they're 12-26 on 3rd down last two weeks, converted two 4th down plays on winning drive vs Steelers. Browns failed to cover last seven tries as single digit dog. Bengals are 1-5 as road favorite last two years; they're in a Steelers/Ravens sandwich.
Giants (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3)-- Big Blue had glorified scrimmage in easy win at Tampa last week, have another one here, against KC club that is 7-36 on third down this year, losing first three games by 14-3-20 points. Upsets in games like this need turnovers by favorite- KC has only two takeaways so far in '09, Giants have no giveaways last two weeks. Chiefs are just 4-7 as home dog last two years; Giants are 12-4 in last 16 tries as road favorite, 9-3 in non-division games. Chiefs lost last seven at home- they're 4-10 in last 14 as non-divisional home dog. Third game in row on road for Big Blue, a historic NFL soft spot.
Lions (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)-- Detroit ended 19-game skid last week; they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight tries as road dog, but lost six of last eight series games, dropping three of last four here, losing by 32-27-4 points. Underdog covered four of last five series games here. Bears won last two games but they haven't run ball well this year (86-43-85 yards)- they haven't led at the half yet, but outscored foes 41-21 in second half. Since 2001, Lions are 7-19-2 vs spread in game after a win. Former Lion head coach Marinelli is an assistant with Bears. Detroit is 13-5 as a double digit dog, but 0-2 this year, losing by 18-14 points.
Bucs (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)-- Washington lost to Lions last week after shaky 9-7 win vs Rams week before, so natives are restless, but Tampa is really bad, losing first three games by 13-13-24 points. Bucs were outrushed 244-85 last two weeks and now 2nd-year QB Johnson gets first NFL start in only second game action. Bucs are just 9-38 on 3rd down. Redskins are 5-11-1 as favorite at home since '06; they've been outscored 37-13 in first half, and have no TDs in first half of last two contests. Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Redskin games. Home side won four of last five series games, all decided by 7 or less points.
Seahawks (1-2) @ Colts (3-0)-- Indy off pair of primetime road wins, are just 2-6 in last eight games as home favorite, winning 14-12 in only '09 home game. Colts has big Monday night game at divisional rival Tennessee next week; they are 4-5 in last nine games as double digit fave, but 8-6 as non-divisional home fave. Seattle is live if Hasselbeck goes, off-limits if Wallace is QB- they're 8-14 as road dog since '04, 6-14-2 in last 22 games as non-divisional road dog. Bad news for Colts is pass rushing star Freeney is out. Manning is on top of game, averaging 12.3/10.8 ypp last two weeks; they're better without Harrison????
Jets (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)-- Two hot teams meet here; Jets have yet to give up more than 4.6 ypp this year, while Saints averaged 10.5/8.0/5.0 in first three games, while also running ball for 157-133-222 yards, so they're balanced more than previous years. NO won its first three games by 18-26-20 points- they've covered five of last six as home fave, but are just 6-10 as non-divisional home fave. Jets are 13-6 as road dog since '06; they are 9-14-1 vs the spread vs NFC teams since '03. Saints' WR Colston played college ball at Hofstra, where Jets used to train, but Jets didn't draft him. Over is 5-2 in last seven Saints' games.
Bills (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)-- Pennington is out for year, Henne gets his first NFL start vs Buffalo team that is 7-3 in last ten series games, but lost twice to Miami LY (25-16/16-3). Dolphins ran ball for 239-149 yards last two games, but haven't averaged 5.0 ypp yet- they have only one takeaway this year (-6). Saints ran ball down Buffalo's throat in 4th quarter last week (222 yards for game) would expect to see lot of Brown/Wildcat here. Buffalo is 6-3 as a road favorite since '04. Miami is 8-13 as home dog. Owens didn't catch pass in a game last week for first time in 12 years, expect Bills to get him involved early.
Rams (0-3) @ 49ers (2-1)-- Niners had brutal loss in Metrodome last week as Favre pulled game out with :02 left, but SF is much-improved team that is 6-2 in last eight series games, with only one win by more than seven points. Rams lost best WR Robinson last week, but got upgrade at QB when Bulger hurt his shoulder and Boller came in; they've been outscored 30-3 in second half, when defense gets worn down from being behind so much. Rams are 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as road dog, 0-6 in last six division road games. Gore is out for 49ers, which hurts running game; they've only turned ball over twice in 2009.
Cowboys (2-1) @ Broncos (3-0)-- Road game on short work week for Dallas team missing two best RBs; despite that, Cowboys ran for 251-212 yards in last two games. Denver is off quickly, giving up 5.5 ppg (one TD/31 drives); after getting lucky in opener at Cincinnati, they crushed woeful teams the last two weeks, running ball for 401 yards. Cowboys are 10-7-1 as home favorite since '06, covering six of last seven as favorite of three points or less. Broncos are 3-1 as home dog this decade, 4-6 as dog of three or less points. Defending Romo this week is huge step up, after seeing Quinn/Russell in last two games.
Chargers (2-1) @ Steelers (1-2)-- Pitt not running ball as well this season (84.3 ypg this year); they lost last two games by FG each, failing to stop Bengals on pair of 4th down plays on final drive last week. Chargers are throwing it well with LY out (6.2/9.0/8.2 ypp) but they've also given up 148-130-149 yards on ground, so interesting to see if Pitt can keep ball away from Rivers. Steelers are 11-7 as home fave since '06, 9-6 in non-division games- they beat Bolts twice LY, 11-10/35-24. Chargers are 15-4-1 vs spread in last 20 games as a road dog, but lost 12 of last 14 to Steelers, with both wins coming in playoff games.
Week 4
Sunday, October 5
Raiders (1-2) @ Texans (1-2)-- Road team won Texans' first three games, as Houston lost both home tilts, 24-7/31-24, after losing goal-line fumble late in Jaguar loss- they struggle to stop the run, allowing 190-240-184 yards in first three games. Foes converted 50% on third down in first three games. Russell is horrible as Oakland's QB, completing 19 of 45 passes for just 141 yards the last two games. Raiders covered six of last nine as road underdog- they're 9-16 vs spread as non-division road dog since 2003. Texans won two of last three against the Raiders, with all three of those games played in Oakland.
Titans (0-3) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Third road game in four weeks for a Tennessee squad that is 0-3 and desperate; they've outrushed foes 353-182, usually good indicator of success, but they turned ball over twice in kicking game last week, and have eight turnovers in three games (-3). Titans are also just 13-38 on third down, which contributes to them losing field position battle by 11-8-14 yards in three losses. Jags don't have much of home field edge- they're the only NFL team that won't sell out any of their home games. Road team is 6-4 in last ten series games. Titans 3-2 in last five visits here, winning last two, 13-10/24-14.
Ravens (3-0) @ Patriots (2-1)-- Red-hot Baltimore scored 38-31-34 points in first three wins, scoring 13 TDs on 32 drives; they've picked off six passes in last two games, have outrushed opponents 470-153, but they've played both Chiefs, Browns, two awful teams. Patriots ran ball for 168 yards vs Atlanta last week; they only have three takeaways (+1) and are really struggling in the red zone, with one TD, seven FGs on last RZ eight drives. They've converted 18 of 34 on 3rd down in their two wins, 5-15 in their loss. Pats are 14-18-1 in last 33 games as home favorite. Ravens covered six of last eight as underdogs.
Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (0-3)-- Can Bengals back up huge win vs Pitt with a win vs hapless Browns, who have one TD on 32 drives this year, outrushed 553-214 with a minus-7 turnover ratio? Cincy is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning three of last four here- they shut Browns out in last two wins here, lost 51-45 here in '07. Palmer makes huge difference for Bengals; they're 12-26 on 3rd down last two weeks, converted two 4th down plays on winning drive vs Steelers. Browns failed to cover last seven tries as single digit dog. Bengals are 1-5 as road favorite last two years; they're in a Steelers/Ravens sandwich.
Giants (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3)-- Big Blue had glorified scrimmage in easy win at Tampa last week, have another one here, against KC club that is 7-36 on third down this year, losing first three games by 14-3-20 points. Upsets in games like this need turnovers by favorite- KC has only two takeaways so far in '09, Giants have no giveaways last two weeks. Chiefs are just 4-7 as home dog last two years; Giants are 12-4 in last 16 tries as road favorite, 9-3 in non-division games. Chiefs lost last seven at home- they're 4-10 in last 14 as non-divisional home dog. Third game in row on road for Big Blue, a historic NFL soft spot.
Lions (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)-- Detroit ended 19-game skid last week; they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight tries as road dog, but lost six of last eight series games, dropping three of last four here, losing by 32-27-4 points. Underdog covered four of last five series games here. Bears won last two games but they haven't run ball well this year (86-43-85 yards)- they haven't led at the half yet, but outscored foes 41-21 in second half. Since 2001, Lions are 7-19-2 vs spread in game after a win. Former Lion head coach Marinelli is an assistant with Bears. Detroit is 13-5 as a double digit dog, but 0-2 this year, losing by 18-14 points.
Bucs (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)-- Washington lost to Lions last week after shaky 9-7 win vs Rams week before, so natives are restless, but Tampa is really bad, losing first three games by 13-13-24 points. Bucs were outrushed 244-85 last two weeks and now 2nd-year QB Johnson gets first NFL start in only second game action. Bucs are just 9-38 on 3rd down. Redskins are 5-11-1 as favorite at home since '06; they've been outscored 37-13 in first half, and have no TDs in first half of last two contests. Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Redskin games. Home side won four of last five series games, all decided by 7 or less points.
Seahawks (1-2) @ Colts (3-0)-- Indy off pair of primetime road wins, are just 2-6 in last eight games as home favorite, winning 14-12 in only '09 home game. Colts has big Monday night game at divisional rival Tennessee next week; they are 4-5 in last nine games as double digit fave, but 8-6 as non-divisional home fave. Seattle is live if Hasselbeck goes, off-limits if Wallace is QB- they're 8-14 as road dog since '04, 6-14-2 in last 22 games as non-divisional road dog. Bad news for Colts is pass rushing star Freeney is out. Manning is on top of game, averaging 12.3/10.8 ypp last two weeks; they're better without Harrison????
Jets (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)-- Two hot teams meet here; Jets have yet to give up more than 4.6 ypp this year, while Saints averaged 10.5/8.0/5.0 in first three games, while also running ball for 157-133-222 yards, so they're balanced more than previous years. NO won its first three games by 18-26-20 points- they've covered five of last six as home fave, but are just 6-10 as non-divisional home fave. Jets are 13-6 as road dog since '06; they are 9-14-1 vs the spread vs NFC teams since '03. Saints' WR Colston played college ball at Hofstra, where Jets used to train, but Jets didn't draft him. Over is 5-2 in last seven Saints' games.
Bills (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)-- Pennington is out for year, Henne gets his first NFL start vs Buffalo team that is 7-3 in last ten series games, but lost twice to Miami LY (25-16/16-3). Dolphins ran ball for 239-149 yards last two games, but haven't averaged 5.0 ypp yet- they have only one takeaway this year (-6). Saints ran ball down Buffalo's throat in 4th quarter last week (222 yards for game) would expect to see lot of Brown/Wildcat here. Buffalo is 6-3 as a road favorite since '04. Miami is 8-13 as home dog. Owens didn't catch pass in a game last week for first time in 12 years, expect Bills to get him involved early.
Rams (0-3) @ 49ers (2-1)-- Niners had brutal loss in Metrodome last week as Favre pulled game out with :02 left, but SF is much-improved team that is 6-2 in last eight series games, with only one win by more than seven points. Rams lost best WR Robinson last week, but got upgrade at QB when Bulger hurt his shoulder and Boller came in; they've been outscored 30-3 in second half, when defense gets worn down from being behind so much. Rams are 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as road dog, 0-6 in last six division road games. Gore is out for 49ers, which hurts running game; they've only turned ball over twice in 2009.
Cowboys (2-1) @ Broncos (3-0)-- Road game on short work week for Dallas team missing two best RBs; despite that, Cowboys ran for 251-212 yards in last two games. Denver is off quickly, giving up 5.5 ppg (one TD/31 drives); after getting lucky in opener at Cincinnati, they crushed woeful teams the last two weeks, running ball for 401 yards. Cowboys are 10-7-1 as home favorite since '06, covering six of last seven as favorite of three points or less. Broncos are 3-1 as home dog this decade, 4-6 as dog of three or less points. Defending Romo this week is huge step up, after seeing Quinn/Russell in last two games.
Chargers (2-1) @ Steelers (1-2)-- Pitt not running ball as well this season (84.3 ypg this year); they lost last two games by FG each, failing to stop Bengals on pair of 4th down plays on final drive last week. Chargers are throwing it well with LY out (6.2/9.0/8.2 ypp) but they've also given up 148-130-149 yards on ground, so interesting to see if Pitt can keep ball away from Rivers. Steelers are 11-7 as home fave since '06, 9-6 in non-division games- they beat Bolts twice LY, 11-10/35-24. Chargers are 15-4-1 vs spread in last 20 games as a road dog, but lost 12 of last 14 to Steelers, with both wins coming in playoff games.
Hey guys...thanks for all the help However I was wondering if anyone can get the following picks for tommorrow, they have all been doing well and would greatly appreciate it
1. Kyle Bales- I think he is 10-1 or 11-1 in the NFL.
2. Larry Ness- I think he has a 26* play tommorrow. I could be wrong about that.
3. Animal - He has a few plays for tommorrow.
Thanks again.
1. Kyle Bales- I think he is 10-1 or 11-1 in the NFL.
2. Larry Ness- I think he has a 26* play tommorrow. I could be wrong about that.
3. Animal - He has a few plays for tommorrow.
Thanks again.
<table style="width: 249pt; border-collapse: collapse;" x:str="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="333"><tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl41" style="border-style: none none solid solid; border-color: windowtext rgb(235, 233, 237) windowtext windowtext; border-width: medium medium 0.5pt 1pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">Kyle Bales</td><td class="xl30" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" x:num="">5</td><td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 1pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" x:num="0.6">60.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>
MARK FOX
Matchup: Bills at Dolphins
Time: 4:05pm ET
10/04 Free Pick: BILLS -1 (-110)
Analysis: In this AFC East battle, lay the points with the ROAD team BUFFALO BILLS!!!
With the Miami Dolphins QB Chad Pennington out with a shoulder injury and Chad Henne starting, I see the Bills defense licking their chops to get at this 2nd year QB from Michigan in his 1st NFL start!! I also see them putting alot of pressure on stopping the Dolphins run game to make him beat them in the air!
The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their L12 games vs. a team with a losing record
The Bills are 7-2-1 ATS in their L9 games vs. the Dolphins!!!
The Bills are 2-0 ATS in their L2 games as a ROAD favorite of 3 points or less
The Bills are 9-4 ATS in their L13 games in games where the line is +3 to -3
The Dolphins are 3-14 ATS in their L17 HOME games
The Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in their L13 games vs. a team with a losing record
The Dolphins are 3-11 ATS in their L14 games vs. conference opponents
The Dolphins are 2-11 ATS in their L13 HOME games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The Dolphins are 5-14 ATS in their L19 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The Dolphins are 5-14 ATS in their L19 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their L6 HOME games where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points
The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their L7 games as a HOME underdog of 3 points or less INCLUDING 0-1 ATS THIS SEASON!!!
Matchup: Bills at Dolphins
Time: 4:05pm ET
10/04 Free Pick: BILLS -1 (-110)
Analysis: In this AFC East battle, lay the points with the ROAD team BUFFALO BILLS!!!
With the Miami Dolphins QB Chad Pennington out with a shoulder injury and Chad Henne starting, I see the Bills defense licking their chops to get at this 2nd year QB from Michigan in his 1st NFL start!! I also see them putting alot of pressure on stopping the Dolphins run game to make him beat them in the air!
The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their L12 games vs. a team with a losing record
The Bills are 7-2-1 ATS in their L9 games vs. the Dolphins!!!
The Bills are 2-0 ATS in their L2 games as a ROAD favorite of 3 points or less
The Bills are 9-4 ATS in their L13 games in games where the line is +3 to -3
The Dolphins are 3-14 ATS in their L17 HOME games
The Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in their L13 games vs. a team with a losing record
The Dolphins are 3-11 ATS in their L14 games vs. conference opponents
The Dolphins are 2-11 ATS in their L13 HOME games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The Dolphins are 5-14 ATS in their L19 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The Dolphins are 5-14 ATS in their L19 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their L6 HOME games where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points
The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their L7 games as a HOME underdog of 3 points or less INCLUDING 0-1 ATS THIS SEASON!!!
