Sunday 1/24/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Championship Angles
By Jim Feist

NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships at Stake!

This is it, the final weekend of games before the Super Bowl. The last month we’ve been hearing about playoff seedings, bye weeks and home field advantage. Are all those things really important? Historically it has been during the second round of the playoffs. Teams with the bye have home field advantage and two weeks to prepare, both of which are usually important edges this time of year.

However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge, but that’s not usually the case this deep into the season.

A year ago the favorites split, with New England crushing the Colts, 45-7, but Seattle failed to cover as -8.5 chalk against Green Bay, 28-22. The Packers were never in doubt of covering, either, leading 19-3 late before a shocking Seahawks comeback win in overtime.

Three years ago the underdogs went 1-0-1 ATS in the title games, with the 49ers winning 28-24 at Atlanta as 4-point chalk and the Ravens beating the Patriots on the road, 28-13.

Four years ago both underdogs covered in squeakers, with the underdog Giants beating the 49ers in OT (20-17) and the 7-point underdog Ravens nearly winning at New England, blowing a late field goal in a 23-20 defeat.

The last seven years, 10 of 14 home teams won but went only 7-6-1 ATS.

Notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 26 of 46 NFL title games straight up and the visiting team is 24-21-1 against the spread. Going 27-18-1 straight up is an edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.

Within those statistics remember that there have been plenty of road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl, including the Ravens and Giants the recently, both going on to win the Super Bowl.

The Packers last January were one botched onside-kick away from advancing as a road dog.

In 2008 both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20.

In 2007 Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.

Coming into this weekend, the dogs are 18-11-1 against the spread the last 15 years in the NFL title games.

The NFC has seen the dog go 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years, including five of the last six seasons with the Giants, the Packers twice and the Cardinals were home ‘dogs to the Eagles. Philadelphia’s trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt.

Certainly you can’t discount home field advantage. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.

It’s difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake — the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.

Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 29-14-1 SU in NFL championship games but 22-21-1 ATS the last 22 years. The total is 24-19-1 “over” during that time. Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite.

The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as two-point home underdogs. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road ‘dog, and three years ago the underdog Ravens won by 15.

Several big favorites have struggled, as well.

Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution.

The Current Trend:
The favorites are on a very mild 9-6-1- ATS run in Conference Championship games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: New England at Denver

When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 24, 2016
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

Future Hall-of-Famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady could be squaring off for the last time and, appropriately, a Super Bowl berth is on the line when the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots on Sunday. Brady carries an 11-5 advantage into the 17th career meeting between the two best quarterbacks of their generation, but Manning won the last postseason matchup in January 2014.

The second-seeded Patriots lost at Denver in overtime in Week 12 and dropped their final two regular-season games to give the Broncos home-field advantage, but they rebounded to end Kansas City’s 11-game winning streak with a 27-20 victory last week. “It’s pretty hard to get to this point,” Brady said. “There’s only four teams standing. A1serviceplays.com Two of these teams have to go home. Hope we’re not one of them.” Denver capitalized on a late turnover to score 11 points in the final three-plus minutes for a 23-16 victory over sixth-seeded Pittsburgh last week. Manning, who did not play in the earlier meeting with New England, made his first start since Nov. 15 in last week’s victory.

TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Patriots -3. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-4):
Slot receiver Julian Edelman, who missed the last game in Denver, returned from a two-month injury absence and provided an immediate spark to New England’s offense with 10 receptions for 100 yards. Tight end Rob Gronkowski shook off knee and back ailments to grab seven passes for 83 yards and a pair of touchdowns as New England had just seven rushing attempts from its running backs. Brady threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns in November but was missing both Edelman and Danny Amendola while Gronkowski was carted off the field with just under three minutes to play in regulation. The Patriots were second to Denver in the regular season with 49 sacks but lost starting linebacker Jerod Mayo to a shoulder injury.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (13-4):
Manning, who threw only nine touchdown passes versus 17 interceptions during the regular season, finished 21-of-37 for 222 yards in last week’s win for Denver, which was limited to four field goals before finally getting in the end zone with 3:04 to play. C.J. Anderson has come alive down the stretch, rushing for 240 yards over his last three games while averaging a healthy 6.2 yards per carry. Emmanuel Sanders, who had five receptions for 85 yards last week, made nine catches for 113 yards in the first matchup with New England. The Broncos led the league with 52 sacks and also ranked No. 1 in passing yards (199.6) and total yards against (283.1).

OVERTIME

1. New England is bidding for its ninth trip to the Super Bowl, which would break a tie with Pittsburgh and Dallas for the most all time.

2. Denver, which is 7-2 at home in AFC title games, can tie the Patriots, Steelers and Cowboys for most Super Bowl appearances with a victory Sunday.

3. Brady’s 22 postseason wins are the most by any quarterback in league history.

PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Patriots 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arizona at Carolina

When: 6:40 PM ET, Sunday, January 24, 2016
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

The Carolina Panthers are perfect at home this season and hope to ride that advantage to the second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night in a matchup of the top two seeds in the NFC. The Panthers rolled to the best record in the league behind an unblemished home record that remained intact with last weekend’s 31-24 victory over Seattle.

“They say to get something that you’ve never had, you have to do something you’ve never done,” Carolina quarterback Cam Newton said. “For us, we’ve never had that vibe in the streets of Charlotte and I expect nothing less than what we saw on Sunday.” A1serviceplays.com The No. 2-seeded Cardinals also are seeking to reach their second Super Bowl and will have a bit of added motivation against the Panthers. Playing with their third-string quarterback, Arizona dropped a 27-16 decision at Carolina a year ago and was held to an NFL playoff record-low 78 yards. The Cardinals, who outlasted Green Bay 26-20 in overtime last week, boast the league’s No. 2 scoring offense at 30.6 points per game – behind only the Panthers (31.3).

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Panthers -3. O/U: 47.5

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (14-3):
Arizona’s high-powered offense has stalled of late, managing only six points in a loss to Seattle in the regular-season finale and 10 through three quarters in last week’s matchup versus Green Bay. Quarterback Carson Palmer admitted to being “tentative” in the first half against Green Bay before throwing for 275 of his 349 yards after halftime. Larry Fitzgerald had eight receptions for 176 yards and the winning touchdown, but rookie running back David Johnson struggled for the second straight game as he was limited to 35 yards on 15 carries. Arizona’s defense sacked Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers eight times in Week 16 but got to him only once last weekend.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (16-1):
Carolina delivered an early knockout punch to the Seahawks, bolting to a 31-0 halftime lead before holding off a late comeback for its 12th straight home victory. Jonathan Stewart returned from a three-game injury absence to rush for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns, alleviating the pressure on Newton, who threw for only 161 yards and a score. Tight end Greg Olsen is the top target of Newton, going over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons while hauling in seven passes for 77 yards and a TD against Seattle. Carolina’s defense dominated the Seahawks up front and recorded five sacks, but defensive end Jared Allen may be unavailable due to a fractured foot.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The game marks the first time Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks will start against each other in the postseason.

2. Arizona is 7-1 away from home and has won five straight road games.

3. The Panthers are bidding to become the ninth team in league history to reach the Super Bowl with one loss or less.

PREDICTION: Panthers 26, Cardinals 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL’s top seeds battle in rare – and profitable – spot on Championship Sunday
By HARVARD SPORTS

‘ANALYSIS COLLECTIVE’

Since 1985, there have been 29 (out of a possible 60) instances when the No. 1 seed met the No. 2 seed in the NFL Conference Championship, so it’s far from a rare event.

However, the last time both conferences featured the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC, which is what football bettors have this Championship Sunday, was way back in 2004. It seems that the NFL has featured more parity over the past few years and therefore, reduced the likeliness of this happening.

So what happens when the No. 1 seed plays the No. 2 seed? Well, in short, the No. 1 seed wins more often than not.

In 19 of the 29 instances, the No. 1 seed progresses to the Super Bowl. This is, of course, not unexpected. Not only does the No. 1 seed get home-field advantage for the game, but they are presumably also the better team during the regular season.

This seems to suggest that Carolina and Denver will be the teams to progress, right? Not so fast.

Denver finds itself in the somewhat weird position of being an underdog at home against New England, with only five previous No. 1 seeds being tagged as the pup. And the line does a better job of predicting the outcome than seeding.

Although during the regular season, the lines only predict the correct outcome around 65 percent of the time, during the conference finals when the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds play, they correctly predict it 76 percent of the time (22 of 29). So it’s actually more likely for New England to progress this weekend (as a 3-point favorite).

So, more importantly, who wins the betting matchups when the No. 1 seed plays the No. 2 seed? Unfortunately, it seems like there is no advantage to be gleaned from the lines – the No. 1 has covered the spread 14 of 29 times – nearly exactly 50 percent.

However, one interesting trend has been that the team expected to win has also covered the spread more often than not. Teams projected to win by the oddsmakers have covered the spread 17 times and lost 12 only times.

This isn’t that large of a discrepancy, but it’s more pronounced when you look at cases where the home team (and No. 1 seed) is the betting underdog (as Denver is).

In these cases, of which there have only been five among the entire No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, the home underdog has covered only once, the other four times the away favorite has covered the spread. Not a large sample size to be sure, but one that suggests taking New England nonetheless.

We can also look at totals, and see how often a game goes Over the number. In all No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, it has gone Over 18 times and Under 10 times (with a push one time) – going Over the total 64 percent of the time. That’s not large enough to be statistically significant (given the small sample size) but definitely large enough to be practically significant.

One thing to notice, however, is that when the home No. 1 seed is a betting underdog to the away No. 2 seed, the games actually lean to the Under more often (2-3 Over/Under).

That means that when the No. 1 seed is favored, as Carolina is, the game goes Over nearly 70 percent of the time. So rather than betting both Overs Sunday, the NFC Championship may hold some extra historic No. 1-versus-No. 2 value in terms of a high-scoring finish.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharps take Broncos, ‘Under’ in NFC as books brace for weekend action
By Jason Logan

Wednesday marked media day for the NFL conference championships, with players and coaches fielding questions from the football-crazed masses at pressers in New England, Denver, Arizona and Carolina. However, in Las Vegas, things were a little quieter.

Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, was mulling over the potential prop offerings for Sunday’s NFL games while Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management at CG Technology, was sitting through some midweek meetings.

That laid back pace won’t last for long, as tourists start rolling into town Thursday, Friday and Saturday and betting limits go up, luring in some big-money players to the sportsbooks. “It’s very much the calm before the storm,” Stoneback.

At the week’s midway mark, sportsbooks were mainly juggling the juice (vig) on the two spreads for Sunday’s conference title games, trying hard to stay at three points – the set number for both the AFC and NFC games.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots opened as 3-point road favorites visiting the Denver Broncos, with sharp money coming in on the home underdog but public money pulling the other way. At MGM, they took an early bet from a professional player on Denver +3 (Even) but are facing a ticket count leaning toward the Patriots at a 6/1 rate as of Wednesday.

“I expect it to stay that way,” Stoneback says. “People aren’t believers in the Broncos and the Patriots looked good in that last game, and got their offense firing. That line will go back up, not past three, but they’ve already taken Denver +3 (Even) and we know we can get that back. It might get to +105.”

At CG Technology, which operates a number of sportsbook including The Venetian, The M and the Cosmopolitan, they haven’t seen much movement on the side for the AFC title game but are maneuvering their moneyline in an interesting way. They opened New England -180/Denver +160 and have since trimmed that to -160/+140.

“Part of the reason why we have such a good price on the Patriots is because of our futures book,” Simbal. “We’re kind of in a bad spot with the Broncos in the futures and good with the Pats, so we’re making that price favorable on New England to draw some action and help limit that liability.”

Offshore, at online market Bookmaker, they’ve had enough Patriots money to warrant a move to New England -3.5, which was gobbled up by bigger bettors who scooped the home underdog with the half-point hook. According to John Lester, lines manager for Bookmaker, 70 percent of the ticket count is on the defending Super Bowl champs while the money is split 60/40 in favor of New England

“That didn’t last long as one of our sharp clients hit that with a limit bet so we moved back to the opener,” Lester says of Patriots -3.5 (+100). “The juice has been weighted on New England’s side for the most part. After momentarily going to -3.5 again, we’re back to the opener with standard juice.”

Things are a little less hostile when it comes to booking the NFC Championship. The top-seeded Carolina Panthers opened as 3-point home favorites to the No. 2 Arizona Cardinals, and what little action that has come in has been on Carolina.

Stoneback says ticket count is 4/1 in favor of the Panthers with more money on Carolina at a 5/1 rate, including moneyline bets and parlays. While wiseguys haven’t got involved in the side just yet, MGM books did take a limit play ($3,000) on the Under which moved their total from 48 to 47.5.

“Since we took that bet, there’s been a little more Over than Under money coming in,” he says. “We may go back up to 48.”

At CG Technology, they’ve actually taken early money on the Over, which has bumped their opening total from 47.5 to 48 and while the spread is fairly untouched, they have received a few Arizona moneyline plays, which has slimmed the juice on Carolina -3 from -115 to -110.

“Haven’t seen a ton of sharp plays on this spread just yet,” Lester says of Bookmaker. action on the NFC title game. “The total has moved up a point since opening. Bettors see two teams that can get up and down the field in a hurry.”

He reports 80 percent wagers on the Over, which also holds 70 percent of the handle with total bets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pats, Broncos clash in AFC Championship Sunday
By Zach Cohen

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (12-4)
Kickoff: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET

*AFC Championship Game*
Line: New England -3.0, Total: 44.0

Peyton Manning and the Broncos host Tom Brady and the Patriots in what could be the final postseason matchup between the two legendary quarterbacks on Sunday.

The Patriots hosted the red-hot Chiefs in the Divisional Round and came away with a 27-20 victory as six-point home favorites. New England had lost its final two regular season games before playing that game, but the team put any concerns to bed with the win over Kansas City. The Broncos, meanwhile, hosted the Steelers on Sunday and came away with a 23-16 win as seven-point home favorites. Denver has won three straight games and has allowed just 20 or less points in five of its past six. The team is playing stifling defense and actually was able to win against Pittsburgh thanks to a forced fumble in the fourth quarter. The Patriots and Broncos have already met once this season and the Broncos won that game 30-24 as 2.5-point road underdogs. The teams have, however, split victories both SU and ATS over the past three seasons. Favoring the Patriots in this game is the fact that Tom Brady is 11-5 SU in his 16 meetings with Peyton Manning in his career. New England is also 9-2 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the past two seasons. LB Jerod Mayo (Shoulder) is the newest Patriots player to be lost for the season. The Broncos, meanwhile, will be entering this one at relatively close to full strength.

The Patriots have pretty much abandoned the run at this point in the season and it’s now going to be Tom Brady that will need to win this game for New England. Brady was brilliant against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, going 28-for-42 with 302 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. He also added a rushing touchdown for the Patriots as well. One big bonus for New England’s quarterback was that Julian Edelman returned from injury. Edelman looked as good as new in the win, catching 10 passes for 100 yards. His ability to make plays allowed Rob Gronkowski to run his routes with a little less attention than he usually gets and it really helped. Gronkowski caught seven passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City. Him and Edelman will now need to get open often against a very good Denver defense in order to win on Sunday. Brady should have little trouble throwing it, though. He had 280 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions the last time he faced this defense and that was in the snow. One thing that will need to happen for the Patriots is that the defense must find a way to stop the run. The Broncos rushed for 179 yards and three touchdowns the last time these teams met and that can’t happen again. Denver struggles to pass the ball and the Patriots could really give themselves a good chance of winning by slowing down the running game.

The Broncos defeated the Steelers in the Divisional Round, but it was a rather uninspiring win for the team. Offensively, Denver is going to need to be a lot better in order to defeat this high-powered Patriots team. The guy that will really need to improve is Peyton Manning. Manning struggled against Pittsburgh, going 21-for-37 with 222 yard, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Denver will need him to throw for at least a touchdown or two on Sunday. The Broncos are also going to need a big game from their running back duo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. The two combined for 108 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, but they also lit up the Patriots earlier in the season. In that victory for the Broncos, Anderson and Hillman combined for 172 yards and three touchdowns. If they can find similar success against New England on Sunday then the Denver defense should be able to put the team in a position to win. The Broncos are allowing just 18.5 PPG (4th in NFL) and have been extremely dominant as of late. They’ll need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady on Sunday, though, and that is no easy task for anybody.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Panthers host high-powered Cardinals Sunday
By Zach Cohen

ARIZONA CARDINALS (14-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (16-1)
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET

*NFC Championship Game*
Line: Carolina -3.0, Total: 48.0

The Cardinals and Panthers will be playing for a spot in the Super Bowl when the teams meet in Carolina on Sunday.

The Cardinals are coming off of a wild win over the Packers in the Divisional Round and will now be looking to ride the momentum of that victory into their meeting with the Panthers. Arizona allowed a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jeff Janis in the closing seconds of regulation last game and ended up winning on a shovel pass from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald in the early stages of overtime. The Panthers, meanwhile, did not have much of a challenge in their Divisional Round win over the Seahawks. Carolina jumped out to a 31-0 lead and ended up winning 31-24, as the team took its foot off the gas in the second half of the game. The Panthers will now need to regain their focus for their meeting with Arizona on Sunday. The last time these teams met actually happened to be in the postseason and the Panthers won that game 27-16 as 5.5-point favorites. Carson Palmer was, however, injured and the Cardinals played that game with Ryan Lindley under center. One thing that is heavily favoring Arizona in this game is that the team is 30-11 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.>75%) since 1992. The Panthers are, however, an insane 7-0 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 this season. Arizona did not suffer any additional injuries against Green Bay, but the Panthers are likely to be without DE Jared Allen (Foot) in this game.

If the Cardinals are going to defeat the Panthers on Sunday then Carson Palmer is going to need to have an unbelievable game for Arizona. Palmer threw for 349 yards with three touchdowns in the win over the Packers in the Divisional Round, but he also threw three picks in that game. He’ll need to take better care of the football, especially with Josh Norman playing corner for Carolina. Something Palmer should do in this one is get rid of the ball quickly and find Larry Fitzgerald often. Fitzgerald was straight up dominant against the Packers last game, hauling in eight catches for 176 yards and a touchdown. He has now caught a touchdown in each of the past three games for Arizona. Another guy that will need to play well for this team is David Johnson. Johnson rushed 15 times for 35 yards against Green Bay and also added six catches for 43 yards. He will need to be more effective between the tackles or it will be tough for the Cardinals to get things going in the passing game. Arizona uses the play action often and Johnson must put some fear into the Panthers defense in this one. Defensively, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them with Cam Newton in town. They should be up for the challenge, though, as they allowed just 19.6 PPG (t-7th in NFL) this season.

The Panthers have consistently beaten up on their opponents this season, but things are going to get tough against a very good Cardinals team on Sunday. Carolina will need to play a complete game in this one, and that means it can’t let up at any point in the game. The team has shown that it can have lapses of poor play and last week’s second half against Seattle was a mess for the Panthers. As always, this Carolina team is only going to go as far as Cam Newton takes it. Newton was 16-for-22 with 161 yards, one touchdown and no picks against the Seahawks last week. He’ll need to do a bit more in this one, but it would really help his team if he can continue to play mistake-free football. The reason that Newton was able to take a backseat against Seattle was that Jonathan Stewart was running wild in the game. In his return from injury, Stewart rushed 19 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks. He showed serious explosiveness on one 59-yard run and it would be huge if he can get it going against Arizona. Greg Olsen, who had six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, will also need to show up for the Panthers in this game. Defensively, the Panthers will need to shut down the Cardinals’ passing game in this one. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue, as Carolina allowed just 21 touchdowns this season (t-7th in NFL).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Raphael Esparza

Take ‘First Half’ – Over 23.5 – Arizona at Carolina (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 24)

We all know that the Carolina Panthers scored 31 points in the first half last week at home against Seattle, and I don’t see that happening but I do see points being scored in this game. Arizona can score points quickly as well and their last road game the Cardinals scored 40 points against the Eagles. Both QB’s will establish the run early, but I also see both QB’s throwing the ball early as well and I see more scoring in the first half of this game then the second half. Offensive game first then both D’s come out at halftime. Should be an exciting game from kickoff and we should see some early fireworks in the first two quarters.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen *******

Take ‘Over’ 47.5 Arizona at Carolina (6:30p.m., Sunday, Jan. 24)

I like this pick on the total in this NFC Championship Game, and I think that we will see plenty of points in this one. All of the talk has been about Carolina’s defense this year. But the Panthers offense is one of the highest scoring in football, and they just tallied 31 points against Seattle last week in the first half alone. The Panthers have gone ‘over’ in seven of their last 10 games. Arizona also has an explosive offense, and they are No. 2 in the NFL with an average of 30.6 points per game. The Cardinals were able to get the jitters out last week in their win over Green Bay. I expect them to open up the offense against Carolina, and that should mean plenty of scoring. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in Arizona’s last seven playoff games and the ‘over’ is 12-3 in Carolina’s last 15 games against teams from the NFC. The ‘over’ is 10-4 in Carolina’s last 14 playoff games and this should be a shootout.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Play ‘Over’ 44.0 New England at Denver (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 24)

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and I have this game flying over the posted total Sunday. We have arguably two of the best NFL quarterbacks to ever play the game and it will be a very tough task for ay defense to slow them down Sunday. Manning has a full game under his belt, so you can expect him to be much better this week, and Brady can pick apart any defense, yes even the Broncos. The O/U is 4-0 for the Patriots in their last four playoff games, and the O/U is 5-1 for the Patriots in their last 6 road games when playing a team with a winning record at home. The O/U is 34-15 for the Broncos in their last 49 home games when playing a team that has a winning record, and the O/U is 6-1 in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The Broncos defense just gave up 311 passing yards to an injured Roethlisberger, so what will happen against a healthy Patriots team. The Patriots have given up 20 points in three consecutive games, and now they face the best offense yet at this point in the year. Play the ‘over’ with confidence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Conference Finals

Patriots (13-4) @ Broncos (13-4) -- Denver (+2.5) upset Patriots 30-24 in OT in Week 11, handing NE its first loss of year. Broncos ran ball for 179 yards; two of Patriots' three TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Home side won 10 of last 12 series games, including all three playoff games. Patriots lost three of last four road games. four of last five visits here, but are 6-3 in AFC title games with Brady at QB, 2-2 on road, with both wins in Pittsburgh. In last ten years, home dogs are 1-2-1 vs spread in conference title games; home side is 8-1 in last nine AFC title games. Denver is only NFL team to win game this year wthout scoring an offensive TD-- they did it twice- 10 of their 13 wins are by 7 or less points. New England is 3-4 in its last seven games; if they stop run game, can Manning beat them thru air? There is 50-70% chance of rain/snow showers during game.

Cardinals (14-3) @ Panthers (16-1) -- Arizona lost 27-16 here in playoffs LY, but 3rd-string QB Lindley played for Redbirds- they had no chance. Cardinals are 5-9 vs Carolina, 1-4 last five visits here, with only win in '08 playoffs. Arizona won 10 of last 11 games, with only loss in (mostly) meaningless season finale with Seattle- they won last five road tilts, scoring 31.8 ppg. Underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven NFC title games; road team is 4-4 SU in last eight. Over last six years, underdogs are 3-1-1 vs spread in conference title games that have #1-2 seeds playing. Carolina is 9-0 at home this year; they scored 31+ points in seven of last eight games; they're 12-0 on grass, but how much did sleet/rain in Carolinas disrupt the Panthers' preparation for this? Weather forecast for Sunday night is cold but dry, with two warm weather teams playing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Six ways NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday

Simple math tells us that two is better than one. That's just one reason why NFL Championship Sunday is superior to Super Bowl Sunday for football bettors.

The world comes to a screeching halt for one Sunday in February: Super Bowl Sunday. But, while the Big Game may come with all the glitz and glam, football bettors can find all that and more - and a little less - in the NFL Conference Championship Games.

Everyone knows about March Madness. But not everyone pays attention to the conference tournaments the week before the Big Dance.

The same goes for the Super Bowl. Everyone and their dog watches the Big Game – even if you’re not a follower of football – but not everyone takes in the conference championship games that precede the Super Bowl.

For sports bettors, going against the public grain is often times the path to profits. And, much like finding more betting enjoyment wagering on college basketball’s conference tournaments than the NCAA tournament, NFL bettors may gravitate toward the conference championships rather than living and dying for the Super Bowl.

Sure, Super Bowl has all the pageantry and hoopla surrounding it but when it comes to turning a profit and having a little fun while doing it, NFL Conference Championship Sunday takes the cake.

Here are six reasons why NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday:

TWO GAMES, MAN

The basic math says NFL Championship Sunday is twice as good as Sunday Bowl Sunday. The fact that there are two games means more options for sports bettors, but it also serves as a safety net – or merciless pit of quicksand with rusty razorblades at the bottom – for football bettors.

With kickoffs at 3:05 p.m. ET and 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday, Championship Sunday offers those bettors coming off losing wagers in the first game a chance to redeem themselves – the infamous “Get Even, or Get Even Deeper” late game.

While plenty of money will be played on the early game – New England at Denver – a lot of that action will funnel into the late game – Arizona at Carolina - with winners looking to double up and losers trying to save their shirts.

Some people like the Divisional Round or Wild Card Weekend, due to the fact there are four games on the slate. But I find NFL Championship Sunday has the perfect balance between big-game buzz and betting options.

SMALLER CROWDS

Try finding a nice seat to watch the Super Bowl on Feb. 7. If you’re in Las Vegas, you better have called ahead – and by ahead we mean like six months ago.

Sportsbooks and sports bar are packed to the gills on Super Sunday, which means simple tasks like taking a pee or getting a refill on your beer will take at least 10 minutes. And those luxuries may not come with a clear view of a TV.

A few years ago, my kid and I took in a matinee NBA game on NFL Championship Sunday and then casually walked into a sports bar following the basketball game and got a premium seat in a booth, right in front of the TV midway through the second quarter of the early kickoff (Yeah, I take my kids to bars. WHAT?!).

Try something like that on Super Bowl Sunday and you’ll find reserved seats on the frozen sidewalk, scanning through the window at a sea of warm drunken heads just to get a glimpse of the 9 a.m. pregame show.

The smaller crowds also translate to the sportsbook on NFL Championship Sunday. This weekend will be a busy day for Bookmakers in Nevada, but you won’t need to camp out for a spot in line like you’re trying to get Rolling Stones farewell tour tickets.

Waiting until minutes before kickoff to place your bet is always a little risky, even on a regular NFL Sunday, but you can wait out line moves and grab the spread you want late on Championship Sunday – something that Super Sunday just doesn’t allow.

Depending on where you wager in the Silver State, be prepared to stand in line like the DMV to get down on the Big Game – well ahead of kickoff.

NO BYE WEEK

The bye week before Super Bowl is the Christmas Eve of sports betting: a painfully long period to wait before the grand finale, that always seems longer than time and space will allow.

And for what? The extra week between conference title games and Super Bowl Sunday is more time to second guess your handicapping, twist your brain around the media machine’s bullshit, and cloud your judgement on what is – when stripped down – just another football game.

You don’t have to deal with that crap during NFL Championship Sunday. The odds hit the board immediately following the Divisional Round matchups and whether you jumped on the early numbers or you’re waiting it out, those lines have one week – and one week only – to move around before game time.

Plus, nothing is worse than having that free Sunday before the Super Bowl. The downstairs toilet that you’ve abused and neglected all football season, yeah, your wife wants you to give it a good clean because she knows you’ve got nothing better to do.

“Make it a real ‘super bowl’”, she says with a smile.

Could be worse. You could watch the Pro Bowl…

BETTER LINE VALUE

NFL odds this time of the year are tighter than that Roger Goodell’s butthole every time a player is carted off with a concussion. However, finding an edge in the conference title odds is easier than finding the same value with the Super Bowl numbers.

Books don’t need to drastically move the odds for the Super Bowl so quickly because they have two weeks to try and even out the action and they know the majority of money is going to come on Saturday and Sunday. So, if you’re waiting for the Big Game spread or total to budge a week and a half before game day, you may want to bring a book or better yet write one – you’ll have some open space on your daily planner.

The lines for the conference championships are a little more liberal. Books and bettors have a pretty good idea of what these teams are made of at this point in the postseason, but you will see more movement, more often simply because of the limited window of time. You’ll get those half-point hiccups that make the difference between winning and losing bets at this time of the season.

NO HALFTIME SHOW

If you’re like me, halftime is a chance to get some shit done before the game picks up again.

Gotta poo? Dump out during halftime.

Want some nachos? Bake them bad boys during the break.

Got some household chores to tend to? Take out the trash or toss a load of laundry in while the teams take a breather.

The lack of a must-see halftime spectacular during the conference championships allows football bettors to multitask. Lay some second-half lines while also giving yourself a little break from the action. Clear your head. Acknowledge the existence of your kids for the first time today.

Super Bowl Sunday, on the other hand, is a relentless heavyweight of entertainment that keeps you glued to your seat with haymaker after haymaker, even when the teams aren’t even on the field. Besides the onslaught of great commercials and blockbuster movie trailers, the halftime show itself is something you just can’t risk missing. Especially this year.

What if I get up to put out a grease fire in my kitchen and Beyonce’s boob pops out? And don’t say it doesn’t happen, because we all know it does…

MODERATE MEDIA BLITZ/NO NON-FOOTBALL FANS

Working in sports media can leave you with a Super Bowl hangover well before game day. I recall my days as a content editor on shift work, watching the news wires in the two weeks before a Super Bowl many moons ago.

The stories were interesting in the first week before the game, but quickly deteriorated in quality and topic as the game drew closer. By the time Friday rolled around, reporters were filing in-depth profiles on the kickers and long snappers. At that point, I just wanted the Super Bowl to be over with so I could once again sleep at night.

Even if you’re not in sports media, the two-week ramp up to the big game - that builds ever so slowly like a Rush song - is a lot to ******. The ESPNs and Fox Sports of the industry are constantly cranking out content like some infinite Play-Doh Mop Top Hair Shop, and then you have the non-sports hacks taking their best swing at an entertaining twist on the Big Game: "Twenty dollars for a hot dog?! That’s a great deal! Ha Ha Ha!” BARF!

And while we’re on the subject of Super Bowl newbies, how about those people your girlfriend invited over from her work to your Super Bowl party. The ones who’ve never sat through an entire football game in their lives and thought they should announce that upon arrival, like they're doing something sooooo daring for the first time.

I haven’t had my first prostate exam yet but I’m sure as hell not going to blab all over the waiting room about it when the time comes to bend over and take a deep breath.

Oh, and there’s always this guy, usually some random girl’s boyfriend who decided it would be ironically insulting to sports fans everywhere to wear a shirt and skinny tie to your “Super Bowl Soiree”. This guy doesn’t exist during Championship Sunday. He’s off rock climbing or buying old vinyl records at a flea market. I hate this guy…

Don't get me wrong. As a football fan, I love Super Bowl Sunday (more so when my Dallas Cowboys get to play in it). It's just behind Christmas and Halloween in the holiday pecking order at my house (Sorry, Easter). But, as a sports bettor, NFL Championship Sunday seems made for me.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

New England @ Denver

Game 311-312
January 24, 2016 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
140.851
Denver
135.084
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Over

Arizona @ Carolina

Game 313-314
January 24, 2016 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
139.505
Carolina
144.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/24/2016, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 173-132 ATS (+27.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 108-79 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-51 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (14 - 3) at CAROLINA (15 - 1) - 1/24/2016, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 11-2 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a road favorite
Denver: 24-8 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game

Arizona at Carolina, 6:40 ET
Arizona: 3-7 ATS after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games
Carolina: 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Conference Championships

Trend Report

Sunday, January 24

3:05 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

6:40 PM
ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road
Carolina is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Conference Championships

Could the poor field conditions at Bank of American Stadium slow down the Cardinals speedy defense against the Panthers Sunday?

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 44.5)

Patriots’ red-zone defense vs. Broncos’ red-zone troubles

Offense has been an issue for the Broncos ever since Father Time sacked Peyton Manning sometime around Week 9 of the 2014 season, which so happened to be a 43-21 loss to the Patriots in Foxborough in mid-November. That poor finish to the 2014 campaign snowballed into 2015, with Denver’s offense scoring just over 22 points per game this year.

Finding the end zone has been challenging, especially when the Broncos venture inside their opponents’ 20-yard lines. Denver has scored touchdowns on just under 48 percent of its red-zone trips – which sits sixth lowest in the entire league – and in the past three games, the Broncos have found pay dirt in just 43 percent of those attempts. With Manning back under center, scoring has seen an uptick since his triumphant return in Week 17, but Denver has settled for seven field goals and scored only three touchdowns.

New England has been a “bend but don’t break” defense for a while now. The Patriots did give up big plays throughout the year but turned up the intensity when foes were able to crack the red zone. On the season, the Pats limited opponents to just under three red-zone visits per game and allowed a touchdown in half of those attempts.

Against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, the New England defense forced Kansas City to settle for two first-half field goals and while it did give up two touchdowns, one was a garbage time score with 1:13 left in the one-sided win. Heading into that game, the Chiefs were dominating in the red zone, scoring touchdowns at a 66 percent clip inside the twenty during their 11-game winning streak.

Daily fantasy watch: New England D/ST

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47.5)

Cardinals’ speedy defense vs. Panthers’ slow field

One complaint coming out of last weekend’s battle between the Seahawks and Panthers was the field conditions at Bank of America Stadium. Early in the game, Seattle’s defense was having troubles with traction, forcing them to switch to longer studs in their cleats. However, the sloppy surface continued to plague the visitor – or at least scorned Seahawks players made it seem so in their postgame comments.

Bank of America Stadium saw a lot of traffic as well as a lot of rain heading into that Divisional Round contest, including two Panthers games and the Belk Bowl on Dec. 30. The grounds crew had re-sodded the surface but that was softened by rain and snow on game day. The forecast in Charlotte this week is calling for ice and rain Friday and snow again Saturday before giving way to sunny skies Sunday.

To the Panthers’ defense, as coach Ron Rivera told reporters, “Both teams played on it”. But slick field conditions can impact some teams more than others. Arizona, much like Seattle, has a very aggressive defense that relies on speed to overwhelm opposing offenses. The Cardinals are used to playing on grass inside University of Phoenix Stadium, but that’s grown outside and brought in for optimal playing conditions. A slick track, whether it be snow or mud, seems to benefit the ball carrier more than the defense simply because the runner knows which way they're going and the would-be tackler does not.

On offense, pushing through the pile or making a quick cut could be like running on banana peels Sunday. Arizona running back David Johnson told reporters he may have to change his running style, “running downfield a little bit more, not trying to juke as much.” The Cardinals and Panthers met on a similar battle field in the Wild Card Round last year, with Carolina winning 27-16 against an injury-depleted Arizona offense. The Cards managed only 27 yards on 15 rushing attempts and sacked Cam Newton only once in that postseason clash.

Daily fantasy watch: Carolina D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Cardinals/ Panthers Under 48

Edges - Panthers: 3-5 UNDER as a host in this series. Cardinals 1-6 UNDER last seven overall games. With Bruce Arians 4-14 UNDER in games in which his team is installed as a dog of less than 7 points, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

New England/ Denver Over 44.5

After starting the season 10-0, the Patriots suffered some injuries, especially to their offense. The results was a 10-0 team that averaged 32.3 points per game going to a 3-4 team over their last seven games averaging just 24.1 ppg. Things started to look better last week when Julian Edelman returned, perhaps the most integral part of their offense (other than Tom Brady). The Patriots cashed in against a tough Kansas City defense that had allowed 12.5 ppg during an 11-game winning streak. New England more than doubled what the Chiefs opponents output had averaged during the streak, scoring 27 points. Against a somewhat overrated Broncos defense, these Patriots should score. Denver will go with Peyton Manning once again here. The Broncos offense has become a bit steadier over the last month, scoring 20+ in each of their last four games and have put points on the board in 10 of their last 11 quarters of play. This change occurred after coming up empty in two quarters of each game in their three previous games. Denver averaged 22 ppg in the 11 games that Manning start to finish. He is certainly not the same Peyton Manning of old, but he'll be able to find the end zone against a Pats defense that is the worst of the four teams remaining. New England has some lofty numbers supporting the OVER in this game. They are 39-16 to the OVER in their last 55 vs. a winning team including 13-5 to the OVER since last season. They are also 57-27 to the OVER in their last 84 in conference play and 10-2 OVER the past two seasons in expected close games (line of -3 to +3). The Pats are also 39-16 to the OVER when following a spread win. In the Bill Belichick era, New England is 73-57 OVER in road gamesand 10-1 OVER revenging a road upset loss. Denver is 34-15 to the OVER in their last 49 vs. a winning team, and the OVER has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these two.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Patriots /Broncos Under 44½

Yes all week we have seen the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning hype. The mutual appreciation of each other’s talent in press conferences, and yes perhaps the last AFC Championship game future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning will play in. That is worth the watch alone folks! That’s all fine and dandy, but it is not Brady versus Manning, it is the Pats and Bronco’s locking horns in an epic battle at Mile High on Sunday and this one will be a good one folks.

I have a strong opinion on the side play in this game for a premium play however the TOTAL in this game is interesting. One cannot ignore the Bronco’s key to success all season was NOT Manning and or Oswiller lighting up the scoreboard, it was the dominant defense ranked #1 in the NFL, #1 against the pass, #1 in total yards allowed, and #3 against the run and #4 in points allowed. Denver’s defense is no joke folks and Tom Brady will be dancing all day against a pass rush that had a NFL high 52 sacks this season. As you look at New England’s defense, they are under appreciated and have some talent of their own. The Pats are 9th against the run, 9th in total yards allowed and they can also put some heat on the passer. Given the fact I expect both teams to struggle in the red zone, and Denver has really struggled there as of late, and Denver’s offense overall tends to sputter at times, and New England going up against the best in the NFL here, in a strategic chess match, I smell a low scoring game.