randall the handle
jets @ colts
peyton manning is amongst the best to ever play the quarterback position. He is a master of his craft. A puppeteer extraordinaire. A precision passer with an educated arm. It’s no wonder that he just won an unprecedented 4th most valuable player award. Just seeing #18 march onto the field exudes confidence to all that are around him and fear into all those that lineup opposite him. Well, almost all. The jets have become fearless. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they have an undeniable karma about them. More importantly, coach rex ryan has the jets believing that they are indestructible and recent play is proof, in case of any doubters. After sputtering to a 5-6 start, this new york squad kicked into another gear at the end of november. Winners of seven of eight since then, the jets bought into the most prototypical football formula of running the ball and playing good defence. In those eight games, including playoffs, the defence has allowed a measly 75 points. That’s an average of 9.3 per game. While we can’t reasonably expect the jets to hold this talented indy bunch to less than double-digits, we can expect them to make the colts work for every point they do tally. If the jets could hold the afc’s top scoring team - the chargers with 454 on the year - to a mere 14 points, they should be able to contain peyton and co. To an output that is comfortable for our purposes. Taking points, the jets have excelled with eight covers in past 10 while also covering seven of their last eight games overall. Of course, running the ball effectively will be key and with an offensive line that features four first-round picks and its top ranked running offence this season, new york can succeed against indy’s undersized run stoppers. Conversely, the colts running game is atrocious. It’s great that the colts can rely on manning’s passing prowess to move the ball but an aggressive jets defence and the amazing cover skills of darrelle revis may make the colts too one dimensional for this type of opponent. Joseph addai has done very little this season and is largely responsible for indianapolis’ 32nd ranked ground game. While there is concern over the inexperience and current abilities of jets qb mark sanchez, he is being asked to simply manage the game while allowing the strengths of his team to pave the way to success, ala trent dilfer and the 2000 ravens. The discrepancy from top seeded teams to lower seeds is not as great as it was in previous eras. The past five seasons have produced a super bowl participant that played in the first round of the playoffs (steelers in 2005, colts in 2006, giants in 2007, cardinals in 2008). Having this zealous group get there would not be a huge surprise and having these abundance of points to play with, makes our selection all that more attractive.
Taking: Ny jets +8 risking: 2.2 units to win 2
vikings @ saints
the closest new orleans has come to a super bowl has been the nine times it has hosted one. The saints are one of just five teams to never play in a super bowl (along with the browns, texans, jaguars and lions). Now, just a mere 43 years into their existence, the opportunity knocks. The only thing that stands in the way of an inaugural trip is the minnesota vikings. The vikes have had an impressive year, led by the resurgence of qb brett favre. Favre has performed well for his newest team, aided by the dazzling play of receivers sidney rice and rookie standout, percy harvin. The top-seeded saints were outstanding. They were 13-0 until a visit by the cowboys ended their undefeated streak in mid december. New orleans led the nfl with 510 points scored, 9th most in nfl history. With qb drew brees at the helm, the saints were tops in yards per game (403.8), were 4th in passing yards per game (272.2) and 6th in rushing offense (131.6). The host was the only team in team in the nfl to rank in top six in both running and passing categories. Offensively, favre vs. Brees has the makings of a classic quarterback duel. However, there are concerns on both sides. The saints did not finish well. They lost their final three games and looked very ordinary in doing so. But it appears that sean payton knew what he was doing as he rested many of his starters, got a few physical practices out of them and then with the return of several injured players, the saints stepped up and whooped the dangerous cardinals. A bigger concern lies with the vikings being on the road. Minnesota was perfect at home with a 9-0 mark including last week’s dismantling of the cowboys. Leaving minneapolis was a different story. The vikings were 4-4 in road games this season but wins occurred early against the woeful browns, lions and rams. Minnesota’s final five away games resulted in four losses, including final three at arizona, carolina and chicago. As with all teams, there are pros and cons that could sway our choice but there is an ‘x’ factor that ultimately tips our hand to the home team. Safety darren sharper ball hawking abilities make him an impact player that can change the complexion of any game in a hurry. This season, sharper had a league-leading nine interceptions, in addition to having three returned for touchdowns. Most importantly is his familiarity with this day’s opponents. Sharper played with brett favre in green bay for the first eight years of his career. As luck would have it, sharper found himself in a vikings uniform for four years before the being let go and winding up here. His knowledge of both favre and the vikings systems will play a significant role in deciding this one. Enough to have the saints marching into miami for their first super bowl appearance.
Taking: New orleans –3½ risking: 2.1 units to win to 2
