Sunday 06/07/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB
Write-up


Sunday, June 7

Hot Pitchers
-- Wells has 1.97 RA in five starts, but no wins. Arroyo is 2-1, 2.82 in his last three starts.
-- Hernandez is 1-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.
-- Haren is 1-0, 1.80 in his last two starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers won Wolf's last five starts (2-0, 3.55). Bastardo won 10-5 at San Diego in his big leagur debut, allowing one run in six IP.

-- Halladay is 6-0, 2.61 in his last eight starts.
-- Porcello is 5-1, 2.10 in his last six starts.
-- Bronx won four of last five Chamberlain starts.
-- Padilla is 2-1, 4.05 in his last four starts, but was apparently put on waivers by Texas since his last start.
-- Orioles are 4-0 in Hill starts (1-0, 1.96 in three road starts). Massaro threw 6.1 scoreless innings in his MLB debut, beating White Sox 5-0.
-- Slowey is 4-0, 2.73 in his last five starts. Bedard is 2-1, 2.12 in his last five starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Touted prospect Hanson debuts here; he was 3-3, 1.49 in 11 starts at AAA Gwinnett. Parra is 0-3, 14.14 in his last three starts.
-- Stammen is 0-1, 6.23 in three starts this season.
-- Paulino is 0-4, 5.77 in seven starts this season. Snell is 0-4, 6.21 in his last eight starts.
-- Thompson allowed two runs in five IP in his first '09 start. Colorado is 1-7 with Jimenez when it scores less than 11 runs.
-- Geer has a 7.77 RA in his last four starts.
-- Nolasco was 0-2, 16.00 in last three starts before going to AAA for a couple starts, where he did very well, so he is back.

-- Saunders is 1-3, 5.92 in his last four starts.
-- Rays lost Garza's last three road starts (0-2, 5.30).
-- Davies is 0-4, 6.29 in his last four starts.
-- Matsuzaka is 1-3, 7.17 in five starts this season.
-- Colon is 1-2, 9.00 in his last three starts. Huff is 0-2, 9.77 in his four starts this season.

Hot Teams
-- Giants won four of their last six games. Marlins won five of their last seven home games.
-- Astros won six of their last nine games. Pirates won four of their last five games.
-- Rockies won their last three games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Reds won six of their last eight home games.
-- Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 road games. Dodgers won four of their last five games, rallying late to win the last two.
-- Arizona is 8-5 in its last thirteen road games.

-- Bronx won ten of their last fourteen home games. Rays won six of their last seven games overall.
-- Blue Jays won eight of their last twelve home games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games, Rangers won five of their last eight road games.
-- Angels won eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Twins won four of their last six games.
-- A's won five in row, six of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost nine of their last twelve road games. Nationals lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Brewers lost six of their last nine road games.
-- Cardinals lost their last two games, allowing 21 runs.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
-- Padres lost four of their last five games.

-- Royals lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Tigers lost six of their last seven home games.
-- Indians are 5-9 in their last fourteen road games. White Sox lost four of their last five games, getting shutout three times. .
-- Orioles are 6-19 in their last 25 road games.
-- Mariners are 8-9 in their last seventeen home games.

Totals
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Mets' last twelve road games.
-- Nine of last eleven Chicago road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Giants' last thirteen road games; over is 9-3-2 in Florida's last fourteen home games.
-- Last three Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Pirate road games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Colorado games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Arizona road games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in Phillies' last twelve road games.

-- Eight of last ten Tampa road games went over the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Kansas City road games stayed under the total
-- Five of last six Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Eleven of last fourteen Texas road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 14-2 in White Sox' last sixteen home games.
-- Four of last six Oakland home games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Minnesota games stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- SF-Fla-- Three of last four O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Last four Vanover games stayed under; home side won last six times he was behind plate.
-- NY-Wsh-- Over us 6-1-1 in last eight Cousins games.
-- Chi-Cin-- Underdog is 6-6 (+146) in Meals games this season.
-- Mil-Atl-- Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen Hoye games.
-- Col-StL-- Favorite won last seven Hernandez games.
-- Az-SD-- Six of last eight Fairchild games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-LA-- Three of last four Randazzo games stayed under the total.

-- TB-NY-- Six of last eight Barry games stayed under the total.
-- KC-Tor-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Davidson games.
-- Min-Sea-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under the total.
-- Clev-Chi-- Underdog won four of last six Wendelstedt games.
-- LA-Det-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Crawford games.
-- Tex-Bos-- Favorite won seven of last eight Timmons games.
-- Blt-A's-- Underdog won seven of nine Dreckman games this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Free Winner for Sunday: Take SAN FRANCISCO (Lincecum) -140 over Florida

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Sunday's free selection: Phillies/Dodgers under 8 1/2

 

[LocksRus]

ASA Total of the Year tonight in the NBA.

I asked yesterday because I thought the NBA game was last night.

I figure someone may have it today seeing as how the game is tonight. ASA has been real strong with their top plays dating back to college basketball.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Rose - 06/07/2009


The Magic let their NBA Finals inexperience get the best of them in Game 1, but they have been resilient these playoffs, losing consecutive games just once. Orlando makes it 1-1 tonight.
For the first quarter and a half, the Orlando Magic looked to be un-phased by the bright lights of the NBA Finals vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, but in the end their inexperience bit them on the backside.

After being such a great second half team in the postseason Orlando flopped in the second half putting up just 32 points. Magic center Dwight Howard had a disappointing night scoring just 12 points with 10 of those coming from the foul-line. Howard managed just one-of-six from the field, but posted his usual double-double adding 15 rebounds to his effort.

Orlando has never won an NBA Finals game straight up, going 0-5 in their history. Tonight the Magic will look to build on a 5-6 ATS mark on the road in the postseason.

The Lakers sent a bold statement to the Magic and all the critics that have them as heavy favorites in this series, scoring over 100-points for a seventh straight game. LA has been up and down the entire playoffs, but seems to have finally found its grove at the right time.

Lakers guard Kobe Bryant put up 40 points for the third time in his last seven contests in Game 1, schooling the young Magic with his sweet jump-shot. Kobe had a near triple-double on Thursday adding eight rebounds and eight assists while blocking two shots defensively. The Lakers are 5-5 ATS on their home floor in the 2009 NBA playoffs and they hope to build on that to take a 2-0 series lead tonight.

Just when folks begin to doubt the Magic, they seem to respond with a loud vengeance and have lost consecutive contests just once in these playoffs against the Boston Celtics. The Magic are 6-1 SU after a loss this postseason which is a stat that leads me to believe they will have a great bounce-back performance in Game 2.

Look for the Magic to find new ways to defend Bryant while Howard has another 20/20 performance to tie the series heading to Orlando.

Free Pick: Magic +6½ (-110)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock

MLB | Jun 07
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox:

Boston Red Sox -170

Free MLB Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits Sports Group - 06/07/2009


Tim Lincecum has been his usual self with eight Quality Starts his last nine outings, and he has 91 strikeouts in 71.2 innings. Nolasco pitched a two-hit shutout last outing vs. the Giants.
This is a rather high total when you consider that reining Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants is pitching in a spacious stadium vs. the Florida Marlins, and we will bite on the Under here.

Tiny Tim has followed up his Cy Young year by going 4-1 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP thus far, with an amazing 91 strikeouts in 71.2 innings. Furthermore, he has lowered those numbers to a 1.27 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three starts with 25 strikeouts in 21.1 innings, and he has eight Quality Starts in his last nine starts. As if he needs a bigger advantage, this will also be the first time that the Marlins have ever faced him!

The reason that this total is on the high-ish side is that Ricky Nolasco has been bombed in his last two starts, raising his ERA for the season to a horrific 9.07. However, he is a much better pitcher that those numbers and he looked downright dominant in his only start vs. the Giants last season, tossing a Complete Game two-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts. He is facing a San Francisco lineup that is batting just .240 in the road this season.

Besides, if Lincecum is his usual self, Nolasco will not need to be great for this to stay Under.

Free Pick: Giants, Marlins Under 8½ (-125)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R&R Totals

MLB | Jun 07

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees:

Total 9½ under-120

Free MLB Over-Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR O'Donnell

MLB | Jun 07

Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays:

Kansas City Royals +225

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

3* Milwaukee at Atlanta Under

The Braves trot out rookie sensation Tommy Hanson to make his major league debut. He is expected to be an all time great pitcher for Atlanta. He has dominated at every level and we expect him to have great success today against a team that has never faced him.

Milwaukee counters with struggling Manny Parra who himself has never faced the Braves. He's in an ideal situation as Atlanta hasn't scored in 22 consecutive innings.

History shows that pitching has dominated this series as of late. The first two games of this series were 3-0 and 4-0 scores. In fact, these teams have played each other 11 times in the past two seasons. In those 11 games they have combined for just 60 total runs, just 5.45 runs per game. In addition the highest scoring game saw 9 players cross the plate, the same total as set in today's game. With two starters having the advantage of never facing these opponents we can expect another low scoring affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS EXPERTS

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Dan Haren may be the most hard luck pitcher in all of baseball as he has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start this season, despite going at least six innings in each of his 11 outings. However, a San Diego lineup that comes in averaging under four runs per game on the season should be no trouble, particularly because we find the Padres at 2-13 vs. a starter with an ERA of 2.70 or better.

Play on: Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Baltimore at Oakland

Oakland starter Vin Mazzaro is off his first Major League win. He figures to be a little flat here. The A's are 1-5 their last 6 home games vs. lefty starters and they are 12-26 when playing Game 3 of a series. Oakland is 6-15 their last 21 Sunday games. Baltimore starter Rich Hill has allowed 2 or less runs in 3 of his 4 starts this year and the Orioles have been on the Winning Side in all 4 of his starts this year. PLAY ON BALTIMORE - (Hill vs. Mazzaro)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Anthony

Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are not playing well, but there's light at the end of the tunnel, and they've got a great oppurtunity for the bounceback today, and here's why:

First, the pitching matchup gives them a solid edge, as lefty Rich Hill takes the mound for the O's. Not only are they 4-0 when he starts, but he's coming off his best outing of the season, tossing seven scoreless at Seattle Monday. He's proven rock-solid on the highway, going 2-0 with a stellar 1.96 ERA in three starts. Look for continued success today, as the A's average only 2.8 runs per game against lefties at home, batting .212 in the process.

Second, I'll admit his debut was impressive, tossing 6 1/3 scoreless against the White Sox Tuesday, but let's not get too carried away with Vin Mazzaro just yet. Orioles bats may have cooled recently, but they clearly prefer to hit righties, averaging 5.1 run per game against them. Look for them to get back on track today, as they test the hard-throwing rookie early and often.

Finally, make no mistake, the Orioles are desperate for a win here, and they know Hill gives them their best chance in this spot. The A's are 0-4 against lefties in day games at McAfee Coliseum, and you can make 0-5 after this afternoon. In the end, Baltimore snaps out of its funk, exposing the rookie in only his second major league start and get their bats rolling!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Play Under 8.5

Saunders and Porcello face each other and have combined for 2 overs and 4 unders in their last 6 combined starts. The Tigers have played unders in 9 of their last 10 home games and the last 13 meetings have produced 3 overs, 9 unders and a push. Look for the under to cash on Sunday afternoon!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jr Tips

Philadelphia (32-22) had won seven in a row, including the series opener, when Lidge blew the save two days in a row. Lidge already has blown six of 19 chances this year and has a 7.27 ERA.The Dodgers (39-19), meanwhile, will be looking to become the first team in baseball to reach 40 wins. Los Angeles' offensive pace has slowed lately and the team's pitchers have picked up the slack. The staff's 3.57 ERA is the best in the majors, and Randy Wolf (3-1, 3.21 ERA) has helped that number.The left-hander was impressive at Citizens Bank Park, allowing three hits and a run and striking out eight in six innings of the Dodgers' 9-2 win May 13. He has a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Phillies, who dropped two of three to the Dodgers last month. The Phillies will combat with Bastardo who is (1-0, 1.50) allowed four hits, one walk and one run, striking out five to give the Phillies a 10-5 victory. Both these teams offensives have slowed down in this series and today's starting pitchers both allow under 3 runs a game.

TAKE UNDER 8 RUNS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seabass Bonus Play: MLB

LA Angels

 

[beachbum]

When Does RAS....

release his play, what time?
We can all get ready!
Thanks!

 

[joe361]

Al DeMarco has a release:

Run Line Mismatch of the Month - Part 3

5 Dime Release

If you're reading this, the game hasn't started

24-9 Best Bet Run (19-6 last 25)

14-2 Baseball Run

6-1 past six weeks with Run Line releases

Part 1 - Yankees 12-3 over Texas Tuesday

Part 2 - Bosox 10-5 over Detroit Wednesday

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly

Tampa Bay + over New York

Matt Garza and Joba Chamberlain are both considered two of the top young pitchers in the AL but Garza has proven he can succeed as a starter while Chamberlain has done very little since leaving the bullpen. Chamberlain owns nine career wins and his numbers are very average this season with a 3.71 ERA. His 1.44 WHIP is alarming and despite being a heavy favorite in nearly every start the Yankees have gone just 6-4 in those games. At home Chamberlain owns a 5.82 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. The New York bullpen has also been a complete disaster this season with some of the worst numbers in baseball. Tampa Bay was able to win yesterday in a see-saw game despite two solid efforts from the starters. The road team has won five of six in this series this season and Garza is quietly posting great numbers even if the wins have not added up yet. Tampa Bay has won six of the last seven overall and the Rays are hitting .278 on the road this season. New York is just 3-4 in the last seven home games and this looks like great value on the vastly superior starting pitcher.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Colorado Rockies

We are getting great value here Sunday afternoon with the Rockies who are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road dog. The Rockies are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record and the Rockies are 4-1 in Ubaldo Jimenez's (3-6, 4.11 ERA) last 5 starts after they held their opponents to 2 runs or less in their previous game. Jimenez has pitched well over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 3.66 and he allowed just 1 earned run in his last start over 6 innings. The Rockies bats have been on fire in this series averaging 10.5 rpg and I look for their bats to stay hot today against Joel Pineiro (5-5, 3.86) who has an ERA of 7.36 over 3 career starts against the Rockies. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts and he has not pitched since May.29. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record and they are also just 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.Grab the value with the Colorado Rockies.