Sucker Bets

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not to sure I'm as bad as you in math LOL what I was stating was the payoff if you parlayed two straight bets
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> for those in the know there is a way to make a 3 teamer a very good bet <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


pls do share...
 

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One more thing, if parlays are such sucker bets, then why does pinnacle not give you reduced juice on parlays?? The juice at pinnacle is -110 on ALL parlays for basketball and football
 

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So you need to hit 28% of 2 gamers to make money...Yet you are saying the actual odds are...

That is less than 1 out of every 3...So to make good coin you would have to hit one out of three....& you are saying the actual odds are 1:3? I am still not so sure that they are not 4:1
 

Rx. Senior
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well true odds are 1 in 4 chances, but that is slightly different than how you were putting it earlier.

You said that one would win 260 and lose 400 ealrier I think or something to that accord.


What you are getting at is when I said 1:3. Well that is a math proportion way of expressing the odds. Yes the odds are 1 out of 4, but in math if you write 1:4, then that means 1 good play and 4 bad ones.


Here is how it stands:

1 winner for every 3 losers should be expected when tossing a coin or 1:3


Now I never said that the 2.6 was higher, because it isnt, but that is why you take some dogs and handicap. Or maybe pay off players, etc
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The odds of hitting a 2 team parlay are 1 out of 4 making true odds 3-1. Always subtract one for true odds is the easy way to remember. Odds of hitting a three teamer are 1 in 8 making true odds 7-1.

Odds of hitting a two teamer are 1 in 4 or 25 %. You need to hit almost 28% to break even at 13/5.
 

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Like I said before, I really only know all of these numbers because all that I bet are 2 and 3 team parlays as a general rule. Although, I do bet quite a bit on them though
 

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(13/5)x = 100-x ; where x = % to break even

13x = 500- 5x

18x = 500

x = 27.77

27.77 % is break even at 13/5
 

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Straight vs Parlay

100 straight plays at $100 a piece. You should win 50 and lose 50.

Lose 50 = -$5000
Win 50= +4550
Expected loss= -$450



100 parlays at $100 a piece. You should win 25 and lose 75.

Lose 75= -$7500
Win 25= $6500
Expected loss= -$1000
 

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Lets add 3 team parlays

100 3 teamers the odds say you should win 12.5 and lose 87.5. We'll look at $100 per play again.

87.5 losses =-8750
12.5 wins @ 6-1 = $7500
Expected loss = -$1250
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Like I said before, I really only know all of these numbers because all that I bet are 2 and 3 team parlays as a general rule. Although, I do bet quite a bit on them though <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Quack- How are you doing just betting 2 and 3 team parlays?
 

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Well for the past 2 years I am doing very well on them. Remember that your numbers above dont take into account that I almost bet EXCLUSIVLEY unders and underdogs!
 

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If you are playing underdogs then you are doing even worse than projected. The favs are up in the NFL.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I am trying to figure out the math of betting two teams separately instead of a 2 team parlay. I never thought of this.

i just did a two team parlay for $50.00. My balance is $182.83 now.

If I bet the first game at $50, my balance would be 95.50 with a -110 juice.
If I take the 95.50 and bet the second game. My balance is $182.41. Where am I going wrong with my math? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Nothing wrong with the math. The problem is that 1/2 the time in a two team parlay you win one game. So if you didn't parlay it you would only lose vig on one game. While you actually can make slghtly more winning a two team parlay over betting both games straight at -110 you lose in the long run because of the 50% of the time that you win 1 of 2 games. Parlays are never better than straight bets.
 

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Take a look even if you get 14/5.

Lose 75 bets @ $100 per game = -$7500
Win 25 at 14/5 at $100 per = $7000
Net loss =-$500

Which equals a 5% loss

You have to hit 26.32 % to break even at 14/5
 

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