Seems likely to me that Steve will come up with a huge favorite to put the client on. Don't lose sight of the fact that Steven Boy stands to make $25,000. (Half of the $50,000) But, of course, the client stands to lose the entire $55,000. So much for money management! Probably buy a half point in any case!
Yeah, I'm sure they will find some old game that was already played, pretend it's close throughout the show to build the drama, and then they'll send this high roller out a "winner" for the final pitch of this infomercial. Thank God this shit is ending....it's like a car wreck that you can't look away from. Maybe even CNBC is too embarrassed to keep the show on the air.
From an EV perspective though, next week's fake high roller client is actually better off risking his entire bankroll on one game. When factoring in EV, it's better to play one $100 hand of blackjack than it is to play 100 $1 hands. Anything can happen on one single hand, one sports bet, one roll of the dice, etc. Over the long run, though...the house edge will eventually kick in and beat you unless you have some way of overcoming it (and Steve Stevens isn't smart enough). Of course, no one bets just one hand when they go to Vegas...which is why the house always does win.
But for Steve Stevens, assuming a 50% commission, he needs to hit just under 70% to simply break even. Having bet on sports for about 20 years now, out of 100 games...I'm a believer that you'll win 25 and lose 25 right off the bat. A fumble, dropped pass, missed shot at the buzzer, etc...this crap evens itself out over time. You'll be on the right side and wrong side of those breaks that determine outcomes. So, those remaining 50 games are where you make your money as a handicapper. If you analyze it correctly, you'll win. If not, you won't. And if you're honest with yourself, you know whether you handicapped a game correctly after it ends. Pros hope to hit 30 out of those 50. Steve Stevens would need to go 45 out of those 50 just to break even for his clients. In other words, he'd need to do better than 90% on games which are determined by handicapping ability for this to be profitable for his clients. That's literally impossible over the long run.