Steelers -4 at Jets

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The Jets have 1 ATS win this year, least in NFL

The Jets have 8 passing TD's this year, Big Ben has 12 in the past 2 games (I think the Jets have 12 in their last 15 games or something awful like that)

13 of last 14 losses by Jets are by a TD or more
 

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If the NYJ secondary is so bad, then why after playing most games vs Pro Bowl caliber QBs, are in the top half of the league in pass yds against?
Just a guess: Main contributor to that fact is field position, tough to give up 400-500 yards passing if your offense turns it over regularly like Geno Smith did, therefore giving your opponent a short field. Add in opponents running down the clock late in the game (aka no or little passing going on) and your passing yards allowed per game look way better than they should be.
Also explains why they have giving up a bunch of TDs through the air despite those pass yds against stat.

With PIT losing two more starters on defense for this game and Vick/Harvin going for the Jets, I kind of like the over in this game. PIT should be able to put up at least 27 in that game in my opinion, probably will be even 30+ the way Brown has been playing (who is supposed to cover him? Don't see anyone that could keep him from constantly get open), Brown/Bryant/Wheaton stepping up the last couple of games and the Jets not being able to cover any TEs so far (so Heath Miller might show up for this one).
On the other hand Vick & the Jets put up 10 at Arrowhead, one of the tougher homefields in the NFL and Chiefs D doesn't give up many pts so far this year. So at home, with Vick & Harvin having another week of practice and a subpar Steelers D, already lacking depth before, now missing some starters and not having homefield advantage, should be good for 16+ too.
 

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Plus even though I think Polamalu isn't close to being the player he was in the past, he still is far better than his backup and his experience/knowledge of the system/ability to recognize offensive plays will be missed by that defense on Sunday.
 

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Steelers 15-28 ATS last 43 as road chalk (7-21 after a win). Maybe that is the logic behind this short line. I am not touching it but I can understand the short line. Pittsburgh had all kinds of troubles @ winless Jaguars a month ago and won that game basically on a pick 6. Then they went to Cleveland, lost 31:10 and have not been on the road ever since (three straight home games).
 

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"With PIT losing two more starters on defense for this game and Vick/Harvin going for the Jets, I kind of like the over in this game. PIT should be able to put up at least 27 in that game in my opinion, probably will be even 30+ the way Brown has been playing (who is supposed to cover him? Don't see anyone that could keep him from constantly get open), Brown/Bryant/Wheaton stepping up the last couple of games and the Jets not being able to cover any TEs so far (so Heath Miller might show up for this one).
On the other hand Vick & the Jets put up 10 at Arrowhead, one of the tougher homefields in the NFL and Chiefs D doesn't give up many pts so far this year. So at home, with Vick & Harvin having another week of practice and a subpar Steelers D, already lacking depth before, now missing some starters and not having homefield advantage, should be good for 16+ too."

Actually like those thoughts, I've bled black and gold all my life and unfortunately let that cloud my judgement at times, but this is some very good thinking. Jets will not be able to stop Pitts passing attack so they'll get their points. I'm seeing 45+ at BOL, think I'll play this. Thanks and GL.

~T~
 

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